MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: 1SE on January 09, 2022, 07:24:24 AM
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Most brackets have us on the right side of the bubble. Again, I think given the fact that there is ALWAYS a weak bubble to get to 68, 18 wins is a mortal lock especially at 18-14 if SJU is now cancelled. That said, if COVID cancellations continue both for us and others it's harder to know what the magic number is (17-15 seems likely it could be good depending on what the Ws and Ls look like in that mix)
Anyways, looking at the schedule it seems to me this is the most likely path to 18 of our remaining games.
v DePaul
v SH
@ Nova
v X
@ SH
@ Prov
v Nova
@ UCONN
@ Butler
v GT
@ Creighton
v Butler
@ DePaul
@ SJU
BET
We've gotta get the 5 remaining against the bottom feeders. We also need to get one of two on the road against SJU or Creighton as well as our first round BET game otherwise we're gonna need to beat a (near) ranked team on the road or X or Nova at home. SH at home will very key - we really needed either Creighton at home or that one, which is why I think the Creighton loss was so crucial - clearly SH will be a bigger task.
It seems entirely reasonable for an expectation to be dancing this year if we take care of the business we should but there is little margin for error. If we can steal 1 or 2 in that Jan 19 to Feb 8th stretch (the @Nova to @UCONN stretch) I would be majorly disappointed to not be dancing come March.
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F it. Let’s just win em all! ;)
But out of the Nova to UConn stretch I think we win 1.
I think we beat X at home.
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It will depend on how heavily the committee weighs Shaka having failed his first test.
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18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out. Though I do think that Illinois win will age like a sharp cheddar. I think 19 is lock and we probably avoid Dayton, 18 and we're sweating Dayton or NIT.
As far as cancellations, I think the number to keep in mind is 5.5, which is the gap number I like to look at for high majors. Generally, if you have 6 more wins than losses, you're in. So 19-13, 20-14, or in the case of cancellations, 17-11, 18-12 should be safe. If the gap is 4-5, it's more dicey. 19-14, 18-13, or 17-12 might do it, but it's no lock. 19-15, 18-14, 17-13, that's not unheard of, but it will get you left out more often than not.
And I know there's always the 16-14 Georgia outlier, but it's such an outlier that I don't think it's useful for projection purposes.
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It will depend on how heavily the committee weighs Shaka having failed his first test.
LOL. Well done.
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18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out. Though I do think that Illinois win will age like a sharp cheddar. I think 19 is lock and we probably avoid Dayton, 18 and we're sweating Dayton or NIT.
As far as cancellations, I think the number to keep in mind is 5.5, which is the gap number I like to look at for high majors. Generally, if you have 6 more wins than losses, you're in. So 19-13, 20-14, or in the case of cancellations, 17-11, 18-12 should be safe. If the gap is 4-5, it's more dicey. 19-14, 18-13, or 17-12 might do it, but it's no lock. 19-15, 18-14, 17-13, that's not unheard of, but it will get you left out more often than not.
And I know there's always the 16-14 Georgia outlier, but it's such an outlier that I don't think it's useful for projection purposes.
When the committee is examining the final bubble teams, they will notice that Illinois did not have their best player.
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It will depend on how heavily the committee weighs Shaka having failed his first test.
They may consider that Shaka didn't prioritize winning this year.
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A six game losing streak would not go over very well here. I think we get in relatively safely. The bottom teams are pretty weak in this conference and I think we can match up with the top teams well also. Expecting some fun games down the stretch.
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When the committee is examining the final bubble teams, they will notice that Illinois did not have their best player.
Doubtful.
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I think MU has a realistic shot at the big dance. If they can play like the last 2 games ... they will prob finish 5 th or 6th in the BE and be a lock.
However, I don’t see any way that they sweep the remaining 5 games v SJU,
Gtown and Butler.
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Ooops ... forgot DuhPaul
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Doubtful.
Trying to remember back to various interviews committee members have made, I don't recall injuries costing team bids (i.e. Marquette getting less credit for beating U of I) but it can HELP teams. For instance, Illinois getting a higher seed because the Marquette loss is discounted a bit by the fact they didn't have Cockburn for the game.
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I think MU has a realistic shot at the big dance. If they can play like the last 2 games ... they will prob finish 5 th or 6th in the BE and be a lock.
However, I don’t see any way that they sweep the remaining 5 games v SJU,
Gtown and Butler.
Same.
But I also find it hard to believe we completely bomb X, SHU(2) at Prov, at Creighton along with getting swept in the 3 toughest left(Nova 2 and at UConn)
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18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out.
Won't win totals be judged differently this year with some teams having several canceled games?
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They may consider that Shaka didn't prioritize winning this year.
Teal unnecessary.
And he hasn’t … so it’s great to see us winning again, too!
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When the committee is examining the final bubble teams, they will notice that Illinois did not have their best player.
They will look at it for Illinois. They will not look at it for us.
Won't win totals be judged differently this year with some teams having several canceled games?
Could be, which is why I included the next paragraph about W/L differentials.
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The "road" has been pretty bumpy but if we can continue to score like the last two games it just might be a smooth ride regardless of who we play.
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Most brackets have us on the right side of the bubble. Again, I think given the fact that there is ALWAYS a weak bubble to get to 68, 18 wins is a mortal lock especially at 18-14 if SJU is now cancelled. That said, if COVID cancellations continue both for us and others it's harder to know what the magic number is (17-15 seems likely it could be good depending on what the Ws and Ls look like in that mix)
Anyways, looking at the schedule it seems to me this is the most likely path to 18 of our remaining games.
v DePaul
v SH
@ Nova
v X
@ SH
@ Prov
v Nova
@ UCONN
@ Butler
v GT
@ Creighton
v Butler
@ DePaul
@ SJU
BET
We've gotta get the 5 remaining against the bottom feeders. We also need to get one of two on the road against SJU or Creighton as well as our first round BET game otherwise we're gonna need to beat a (near) ranked team on the road or X or Nova at home. SH at home will very key - we really needed either Creighton at home or that one, which is why I think the Creighton loss was so crucial - clearly SH will be a bigger task.
It seems entirely reasonable for an expectation to be dancing this year if we take care of the business we should but there is little margin for error. If we can steal 1 or 2 in that Jan 19 to Feb 8th stretch (the @Nova to @UCONN stretch) I would be majorly disappointed to not be dancing come March.
Is the SJU game no longer expected to be made up? Did I miss something?
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Is the SJU game no longer expected to be made up? Did I miss something?
FWIW the Marquette website refers to it as canceled and not postponed.
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Also, these next 2 games are huge. Really need to win em both because the 6 game stretch after that is going to be reallllll tough. Starting with pummeling Gtown was perfect, now need to get 2 more. Then you can afford a 2-4 stretch @Nova, v X, @SHU, @PC, v Nova and @UCONN. 6-7 heading into final 6 or 7 BE games should be in a decent spot. Lots of ifs, but if we play 80% as good as we did the last 2 games, I like our chances of going 4-4 or better in the next 8.
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FWIW the Marquette website refers to it as canceled and not postponed.
Hmmm. With the BE announcing they plan to make up PPD games and Marq certainly wanting their home game, you sure think they’d make more of an effort than giving up in early Jan. Do know SJU has already rescheduled a few games tho - maybe their schedules just don’t match up.
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Hmmm. With the BE announcing they plan to make up PPD games and Marq certainly wanting their home game, you sure think they’d make more of an effort than giving up in early Jan. Do know SJU has already rescheduled a few games tho - maybe their schedules just don’t match up.
I’d like for Marquette to play em all….
However, STJ has 4 to make up so the scheduling situation is on them.
Also, I would bet that a road game at the Johnnies is one of those that Shaka and Co wouldn’t be terribly upset about not playing. Seems to me like a pretty low upside game without much to gain. The raw numbers would look better with an extra win obviously, but that’s a tough game and the Johnnies computer numbers are currently sloppy.
StJ actually has some good pieces, they have just been wildly inconsistent. Champagnie went for 34 versus DePaul and then followed up with an 0-8 from 3 performance against Providence for example.
Weren’t they predicted to finish in the top half of conference in the preseason this year?
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Hmmm. With the BE announcing they plan to make up PPD games and Marq certainly wanting their home game, you sure think they’d make more of an effort than giving up in early Jan. Do know SJU has already rescheduled a few games tho - maybe their schedules just don’t match up.
I went through their mutual schedules after the game was cancelled and there were only two dates that worked the entire year. February 10 & 18. I see Butler is now playing the Johnnies on the 18th, so unless they do February 10, it's probably off.
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Avoiding Cockburn may Be The Difference.
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Avoiding Cockburn may Be The Difference.
Yes, by all means, avoid it. It can be very painful.
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18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out. Though I do think that Illinois win will age like a sharp cheddar. I think 19 is lock and we probably avoid Dayton, 18 and we're sweating Dayton or NIT.
As far as cancellations, I think the number to keep in mind is 5.5, which is the gap number I like to look at for high majors. Generally, if you have 6 more wins than losses, you're in. So 19-13, 20-14, or in the case of cancellations, 17-11, 18-12 should be safe. If the gap is 4-5, it's more dicey. 19-14, 18-13, or 17-12 might do it, but it's no lock. 19-15, 18-14, 17-13, that's not unheard of, but it will get you left out more often than not.
And I know there's always the 16-14 Georgia outlier, but it's such an outlier that I don't think it's useful for projection purposes.
I don't have any way to check this quickly, but it seems like the 10 and 11 at large seeds usually gave a few 18 win high majors. With no bad losses and already a clutch of nice wins I just can't see us missing out if we get to 18.
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Let's just get to 19 -- or better yet, 20+ -- so we don't have to sweat it!
There. Problem solved!
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Yes, by all means, avoid it. It can be very painful.
Did willie just admit to having the clap or something?
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Did willie just admit to having the clap or something?
It would explain a lot
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He could have gotten a shot for it, but, you know.....
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I don't have any way to check this quickly, but it seems like the 10 and 11 at large seeds usually gave a few 18 win high majors. With no bad losses and already a clutch of nice wins I just can't see us missing out if we get to 18.
High major win totals in Dayton in the last 5 full Tournaments:
2019: 21-win St John's, 22-win Arizona State
2018: 20-win Arizona State & Syracuse, 21-win UCLA
2017: 19-win Wake Forest, 20-win Providence & K-State, 24-win USC
2016: 19-win Vanderbilt, 22-win Michigan
2015: 20-win Mississippi
Without digging, I'm sure there are numerous 18-20 win high majors left out each year.
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In the crazy Covid environment with game cancellations, I have to believe the win to loss differential will be more valuable this year than total wins.
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In the crazy Covid environment with game cancellations, I have to believe the win to loss differential will be more valuable this year than total wins.
I would say this is a less favorable scenario for us already.
Could be more reliant on NET and computer metrics than before (I guess they are about one in the same).
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Also, these next 2 games are huge. Really need to win em both because the 6 game stretch after that is going to be reallllll tough. Starting with pummeling Gtown was perfect, now need to get 2 more. Then you can afford a 2-4 stretch @Nova, v X, @SHU, @PC, v Nova and @UCONN. 6-7 heading into final 6 or 7 BE games should be in a decent spot. Lots of ifs, but if we play 80% as good as we did the last 2 games, I like our chances of going 4-4 or better in the next 8.
If we are 6-7 after the first 13 games currently scheduled.
That is far better than a decent spot.
I think just about every bracket currently has us in. Go 4-4 with what I believe would be 3 Q1 wins anyway you slice it, I see that enhancing our odds solidly
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High major win totals in Dayton in the last 5 full Tournaments:
2019: 21-win St John's, 22-win Arizona State
2018: 20-win Arizona State & Syracuse, 21-win UCLA
2017: 19-win Wake Forest, 20-win Providence & K-State, 24-win USC
2016: 19-win Vanderbilt, 22-win Michigan
2015: 20-win Mississippi
Without digging, I'm sure there are numerous 18-20 win high majors left out each year.
I’m curious how the 20 game conference schedule will affect this. This is only year two for the Big East and last year was washout with cancelled games.
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A six game losing streak would not go over very well here. I think we get in relatively safely. The bottom teams are pretty weak in this conference and I think we can match up with the top teams well also. Expecting some fun games down the stretch.
Relatively safely...what!?
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High major win totals in Dayton in the last 5 full Tournaments:
2019: 21-win St John's, 22-win Arizona State
2018: 20-win Arizona State & Syracuse, 21-win UCLA
2017: 19-win Wake Forest, 20-win Providence & K-State, 24-win USC
2016: 19-win Vanderbilt, 22-win Michigan
2015: 20-win Mississippi
Without digging, I'm sure there are numerous 18-20 win high majors left out each year.
Yeah, so 18 really doesn't seem to ever be enough, although seem to be enough high-major 19-14 and 19-15 teams (so 3 or 4 win "gap" so maybe a 5 game gap at 18-13 would be enough) - my memory must be going - also looks like the first four at large teams also have 20 or more wins usually.
2019 FL 19-15 (10), OSU 19-14 (11), OK 19-13 (9)
2018 OK 18-13 (10), AL 19-15 (9), TX 19-14 (10)
2017 Vandy 19-15 (9), Mich 19-14 (9)
2016 Cuse 19-13 (10)
That really leaves us with very little margin for error. I guess it will be TBW all season!
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Did willie just admit to having the clap or something?
or sunburn...gotta cover up the willie
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I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.
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I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.
I'm hoping this year we finally get all 6 "easy" wins in the conference and lay our eggs against fellow bubble teams. Would much rather have PC return a blow out against us than DePaul GTown or Butler eek out a frustrating win.
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I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.
Wouldn't 32 games mean 21-11?
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I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.
22-10 would certainly get us in. Definite single-digit seed, probably in the 6-7 range.
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I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.
At 22-10 we’d be waaaaaaaay in. It would not matter in the slightest which of our remaining games we win and lose to get to that number.
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Yeah, so 18 really doesn't seem to ever be enough, although seem to be enough high-major 19-14 and 19-15 teams (so 3 or 4 win "gap" so maybe a 5 game gap at 18-13 would be enough) - my memory must be going - also looks like the first four at large teams also have 20 or more wins usually.
2019 FL 19-15 (10), OSU 19-14 (11), OK 19-13 (9)
2018 OK 18-13 (10), AL 19-15 (9), TX 19-14 (10)
2017 Vandy 19-15 (9), Mich 19-14 (9)
2016 Cuse 19-13 (10)
That really leaves us with very little margin for error. I guess it will be TBW all season!
How much does this change with conferences moving to 20 game seasons? I’m guessing records on average may come down a game or two based on one or two less buy games compared to 2016 and 2017.
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How much does this change with conferences moving to 20 game seasons? I’m guessing records on average may come down a game or two based on one or two less buy games compared to 2016 and 2017.
It could, maybe changing the usual 19-20 game threshold to 18-19, but I'm skeptical. So far, we only have one season with one high-major contest in terms of data available, which was the 2019 Big 10. No team got in with less than 19 wins that year. If you use the consensus 2020 bracket, you could add the Big 10 and ACC that year, but that would add another 19-win team and no one else with less than 20.
That said, we're looking at super-small sample size, so nothing very definitive.
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It could, maybe changing the usual 19-20 game threshold to 18-19, but I'm skeptical. So far, we only have one season with one high-major contest in terms of data available, which was the 2019 Big 10. No team got in with less than 19 wins that year. If you use the consensus 2020 bracket, you could add the Big 10 and ACC that year, but that would add another 19-win team and no one else with less than 20.
That said, we're looking at super-small sample size, so nothing very definitive.
Since the 2011 tournament only two 18 win teams have received an At-Large bid, not counting 2021. (Oklahoma in 2018 and Oklahoma State in 2015 and both avoided the play-in)
19 wins seems to get the conversation started but the quality at 19 matters a lot, hence why you see 20+ win teams in the play-in games.
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Since the 2011 tournament only two 18 win teams have received an At-Large bid, not counting 2021. (Oklahoma in 2018 and Oklahoma State in 2015 and both avoided the play-in)
19 wins seems to get the conversation started but the quality at 19 matters a lot, hence why you see 20+ win teams in the play-in games.
Cancellations are the reason I could see us getting in at 18. If we are 18-13, we have a shot. If we make up St. John's and go 18-14, I'm doubtful. Though that Illinois win is aging really well. Come Selection Sunday, it could have similar value to the Villanova win in 2017.
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The road is open. At the end of the day vs. SH should age better than a CU win would have but my blood pressure didn't need either game.
Win even one of the next 6 and we should have a very strong resume barring a Wojo-style February collapse. Win more than one of the next six and we should be talking seed rather than bubble.
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The road is open. At the end of the day vs. SH should age better than a CU win would have but my blood pressure didn't need either game.
Win even one of the next 6 and we should have a very strong resume barring a Wojo-style February collapse. Win more than one of the next six and we should be talking seed rather than bubble.
I made my wife promise to never, ever mention my bball watching to my cardiologist.
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Lots of good results. That should remain a Q1 win in the morning and gives us 3 as long as WVU doesn't fall below 50.
Illinois blasting Michigan last night helps. St Bonaventure's win moved them to Q2 status, so no more bad losses. K-State beating Texas Tech will push them close to being a Q1 road win. Excellent 24 hours for us.
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The road is open. At the end of the day vs. SH should age better than a CU win would have but my blood pressure didn't need either game.
Win even one of the next 6 and we should have a very strong resume barring a Wojo-style February collapse. Win more than one of the next six and we should be talking seed rather than bubble.
It is precious that the guy who calls out others for being part of the "cult of low expectations" would be content if we go 1-5 over the next 3 1/2 weeks.
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Lots of good results. That should remain a Q1 win in the morning and gives us 3 as long as WVU doesn't fall below 50.
Illinois blasting Michigan last night helps. St Bonaventure's win moved them to Q2 status, so no more bad losses. K-State beating Texas Tech will push them close to being a Q1 road win. Excellent 24 hours for us.
Nice. One of our best wins, WVU, got trounced at Kansas doe
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Dropping their record to 13-3. WVU losing to #9 Kansas at Kansas isn't going to hurt MU.
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Dropping their record to 13-3. WVU losing to #9 Kansas at Kansas isn't going to hurt MU.
They were 11 point underdogs and lost by 26. Their NET will go from 37 to the mid 40s. Won’t be a significant affect but it’ll definitely hurt MU.
Hopefully the other teams that won will outbalance that.
They were only down 2 at half too.
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Lots of good results. That should remain a Q1 win in the morning and gives us 3 as long as WVU doesn't fall below 50.
Illinois blasting Michigan last night helps. St Bonaventure's win moved them to Q2 status, so no more bad losses. K-State beating Texas Tech will push them close to being a Q1 road win. Excellent 24 hours for us.
Yes—fantastic.
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It is precious that the guy who calls out others for being part of the "cult of low expectations" would be content if we go 1-5 over the next 3 1/2 weeks.
The probability we would go at least 2-5 over these 7 was about 67%. The probability we would go at least 3-4 was about 35%. Expecting to go 2-5 before yesterday's game was the reasonable (on the conservative side) expectation.
But you're right, now that we won yesterday the probability we win at least 2 of the next 6 is about 50-50. I'll update expectations accordingly - let's win 2 of the next 6!
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Teal unnecessary.
And he hasn’t … so it’s great to see us winning again, too!
Weird hill to die on, MU82.
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The probability we would go at least 2-5 over these 7 was about 67%. The probability we would go at least 3-4 was about 35%. Expecting to go 2-5 before yesterday's game was the reasonable (on the conservative side) expectation.
But you're right, now that we won yesterday the probability we win at least 2 of the next 6 is about 50-50. I'll update expectations accordingly - let's win 2 of the next 6!
Care to offer your thoughts about the games in order of most/least likely that we win/lose? I think Xavier and Providence offer the best chances of wins (even with P's revenge factor) and Nova in Philly and pissed off "Williard & Co." (as one scooper might describe them) are my picks for least likely to win. I think a win vs. Nova in Milwaukee is a real possibility. There are some chinks in Nova's armor this season. UCONN? They're difficult to read.
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The probability we would go at least 2-5 over these 7 was about 67%. The probability we would go at least 3-4 was about 35%. Expecting to go 2-5 before yesterday's game was the reasonable (on the conservative side) expectation.
But you're right, now that we won yesterday the probability we win at least 2 of the next 6 is about 50-50. I'll update expectations accordingly - let's win 2 of the next 6!
I'm saying we win 4 of the 6. Sad that Scoopers like you can't free themselves from the cult of low expectations.
2 of 6? Stop settling for mediocrity!
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Three weeks ago we would have been big dogs in all, or most, of these games and things have changed in the good guy's favor. While it is interesting to project 3, 4 or 5 games out, I think one game at time is more on spot this year than most years. As we sit today, there is not one game coming up that I do not think they have a chance going into the game, including Wednesday night. Every once in a while, a season totally surprises the majority of fans, and this may be one of those years.
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I'm saying we win 4 of the 6. Sad that Scoopers like you can't free themselves from the cult of low expectations.
2 of 6? Stop settling for mediocrity!
I’ll drink whatever you’re drinking. 4 of 6 would be amazing and probably put us in the top 25.
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I think we can compete in all of these games. This team is so much better now than it was a month ago. Shaka is doing great work.
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Three weeks ago we would have been big dogs in all, or most, of these games and things have changed in the good guy's favor. While it is interesting to project 3, 4 or 5 games out, I think one game at time is more on spot this year than most years. As we sit today, there is not one game coming up that I do not think they have a chance going into the game, including Wednesday night. Every once in a while, a season totally surprises the majority of fans, and this may be one of those years.
I agree with you 100%, Goose.
I have admitted, and I'll admit again, that I underestimated this team. Heck, you predicted them to make the tourney, and even that might have turned out to have been underestimating them! Shaka has done a great job, and the athletes deserve a ton of credit.
I think most of these next 6 games will be very close, so hopefully down the stretch in them we'll play well enough and coach well enough and get enough good fortune to win most of them.
The next game obviously will be very tough. Villanova is what Marquette basketball aspires to be, and it's especially difficult to beat them at the Pavilion. But they do occasionally lose there, including just a few years ago to freakin' Furman. We need to play our best game, but it's not impossible. And if we do win that one ... wow!
And then after that, take them game by game as you say, and it's far from crazy for a realistic-but-optimistic Marquette fan to think we could win any of the other 5 during this stretch.
Throughout sports history, there are seasons in which you can look back at a team's performance and say, "There was just something special about that team ... " Could this be that rare kind of season for Marquette? We'll see!
Regardless of our eventual destination, I've been thoroughly enjoying the journey so far, and will continue to do so.
We Are Marquette!
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I will say again, these guys we will be remembered for starting the rebirth of MU basketball. It has been exciting looking forward to the games and they all have brought some excitement. Thus far, every game in the BE has been fun to watch and I have really enjoyed going to the games again. Granted, I have waited 45 years for this style of play and player, which makes me very biased and I have not been disappointed. The hiring of Shaka was a great move by MU and it will pay big dividends for the entire university.
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I will say again, these guys we will be remembered for starting the rebirth of MU basketball. It has been exciting looking forward to the games and they all have brought some excitement. Thus far, every game in the BE has been fun to watch and I have really enjoyed going to the games again. Granted, I have waited 45 years for this style of play and player, which makes me very biased and I have not been disappointed. The hiring of Shaka was a great move by MU and it will pay big dividends for the entire university.
Is it really that different than Buzz/Crean? The only majorly different thing I see is the press.
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Care to offer your thoughts about the games in order of most/least likely that we win/lose? I think Xavier and Providence offer the best chances of wins (even with P's revenge factor) and Nova in Philly and pissed off "Williard & Co." (as one scooper might describe them) are my picks for least likely to win. I think a win vs. Nova in Milwaukee is a real possibility. There are some chinks in Nova's armor this season. UCONN? They're difficult to read.
I agree with you (and barttovik) that our best chances are the home games - especially since Nova seems to struggle in MKE for some reason. Plus, ot was really encouraging to see some life in the FF yesterday - if we can really get the crowds going for those games that would be great.
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I’ll drink whatever you’re drinking. 4 of 6 would be amazing and probably put us in the top 25.
Not probably, definitely.
Winning 4 of the next 6 would be absurd though. 3 would be more than fantastic.
Beating elite BE teams on the road is very, very difficult
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I would be shocked if we win wednesday at Nova
And do not expect to win at Uconn
But I think we have a really solid chance to win the other 4.
Im guessing 2-4. Which from a tourney standpoint would be perfectly fine.
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Earlier in this thread I said that I thought there were some chinks in Nova's armor this year, and that we just might win in Milwaukee. That ("chinks in the armor") did not age well. Nova 82, Butler 42 today. I still think we have a fair chance of winning at home, and who knows? Maybe Wednesday is a trap game, although I think it's very unlikely.
I'm guessing 3-3 in the next six games and hoping to be proven too conservative.
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Earlier in this thread I said that I thought there were some chinks in Nova's armor this year, and that we just might win in Milwaukee. That ("chinks in the armor") did not age well. Nova 82, Butler 42 today. I still think we have a fair chance of winning at home, and who knows? Maybe Wednesday is a trap game, although I think it's very unlikely.
I'm guessing 3-3 in the next six games and hoping to be proven too conservative.
Armor is a medieval thing. So that’s good!
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Earlier in this thread I said that I thought there were some chinks in Nova's armor this year, and that we just might win in Milwaukee. That ("chinks in the armor") did not age well. Nova 82, Butler 42 today. I still think we have a fair chance of winning at home, and who knows? Maybe Wednesday is a trap game, although I think it's very unlikely.
I'm guessing 3-3 in the next six games and hoping to be proven too conservative.
Nova is one of the slowest teams in the nation, in fact, the 4th slowest team in the nation. They average nearly 10 less possessions per game than Marquette. If the game is played at their tempo, Marquette will have to guard the 3-pt line and force them into a bad shooting night. I’m not sure they can speed Nova up. Nova had played one game with 70+ possessions and that was an overtime game. Nova is also very good on the offensive glass. If Marquette doesn’t clean that up, it could be a long night. I think Nova is a terrible matchup for them. But I’m looking forward to it to see what the staff cooks up.
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Nova is one of the slowest teams in the nation, in fact, the 4th slowest team in the nation. They average nearly 10 less possessions per game than Marquette. If the game is played at their tempo, Marquette will have to guard the 3-pt line and force them into a bad shooting night. I’m not sure they can speed Nova up. Nova had played one game with 70+ possessions and that was an overtime game. Nova is also very good on the offensive glass. If Marquette doesn’t clean that up, it could be a long night. I think Nova is a terrible matchup for them. But I’m looking forward to it to see what the staff cooks up.
Nova is also a team that doesn't commit live ball TOs often(or TOs in general). Similar to Wisco and Bonnies.
I think we still have a chance to win the home game with a energized crowd and the potential for either a hot shooting game or them being off.
I do not see a win Wedneday on the road though.
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Nova is one of the slowest teams in the nation, in fact, the 4th slowest team in the nation. They average nearly 10 less possessions per game than Marquette. If the game is played at their tempo, Marquette will have to guard the 3-pt line and force them into a bad shooting night. I’m not sure they can speed Nova up. Nova had played one game with 70+ possessions and that was an overtime game. Nova is also very good on the offensive glass. If Marquette doesn’t clean that up, it could be a long night. I think Nova is a terrible matchup for them. But I’m looking forward to it to see what the staff cooks up.
Thanks for your well worded reply. I believe it was Brew who said that, in the battle to control tempo, the team that prefers a slower tempo usually has an easier time forcing their will upon the opponent than a team trying to force a faster pace. No question that we will pay dearly if we cannot rebound at least somewhat competitively. At least the first game is in Philly, so our guys will have some gained experience and a chance to learn from mistakes before facing Nova in Milwaukee. I think that's a really big plus, rather than the order of games being reversed. I am not expecting a MU upset win on Wednesday but still think we have a decent chance at home. To state the obvious, Gillespie absolutely needs to be brought control for us to have a chance. Hear that Mr. Moresell?
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Hopefully Shaka proves to be Joan of Arc and Atilla the Hun...in a blender.
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Hopefully Shaka proves to be Joan of Arc and Atilla the Hun...in a blender.
Joan of Arc riding an elephant! Love it!
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Joan of Arc riding an elephant! Love it!
Are you mixing up Attila and Hannibal?
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Are you mixing up Attila and Hannibal?
Yeah I guess I did. I see that now, but hey! It works for me. Nobody screws with an elephant. I saw a show (National Geographic, I think) where a guy decided to pass a lumbering elephant on a road in Africa. The elephant apparently took exception to this and flipped the car upside down.
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Yeah I guess I did. I see that now, but hey! It works for me. Nobody screws with an elephant. I saw a show (National Geographic, I think) where a guy decided to pass a lumbering elephant on a road in Africa. The elephant apparently took exception to this and flipped the car upside down.
That's great rim protection right there.
If this is what Muggs was talking about, I'm all in!!
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The road is simple - keep winning.
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Excellent article on the Path to the NCAA
https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2022/1/17/22886587/marquette-golden-eagles-mens-basketball-ncaa-tournament-season-projection-t-rank-net-rating
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Best Case Scenario, I don't we can do much better than this and hopefully this gets us a bid. As of right now (1/18/22) Lunardi has us at a 10. Also just by looking at it I don't think a Power 6/5 school can be higher than a 12.
@ Nova L
v X W
@ SH W
@ Prov W
v Nova W
@ UCONN W
@ Butler W
v GT W
@ Creighton W
v Butler W
@ DePaul W
@ SJU W
BET
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Best Case Scenario, I don't we can do much better than this and hopefully this gets us a bid. As of right now (1/18/22) Lunardi has us at a 10. Also just by looking at it I don't think a Power 6/5 school can be higher than a 12.
@ Nova L
v X W
@ SH W
@ Prov W
v Nova W
@ UCONN W
@ Butler W
v GT W
@ Creighton W
v Butler W
@ DePaul W
@ SJU W
BET
Well if we're good enough to close out the season with 11 W's, that probably means we're good enough to win @ Nova, so might as well go all in.
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Best Case Scenario, I don't we can do much better than this and hopefully this gets us a bid. As of right now (1/18/22) Lunardi has us at a 10. Also just by looking at it I don't think a Power 6/5 school can be higher than a 12.
@ Nova L
v X W
@ SH W
@ Prov W
v Nova W
@ UCONN W
@ Butler W
v GT W
@ Creighton W
v Butler W
@ DePaul W
@ SJU W
BET
We would be in the conversation for a 2 seed
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Well if we're good enough to close out the season with 11 W's, that probably means we're good enough to win @ Nova, so might as well go all in.
Plus, might as well have us going 3-0 in the BET and 6-0 in the NCAAT. Think positive!
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I would have to.think that getting to 18 now, no matter how we do it, is dancing. Obviously let's win a bunch more and get a protected seed, but Brew's math on dancing must be looking pretty good right now.
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I would have to.think that getting to 18 now, no matter how we do it, is dancing. Obviously let's win a bunch more and get a protected seed, but Brew's math on dancing must be looking pretty good right now.
Folks want 28 now, not 18
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Folks want 28 now, not 18
Yes please