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Author Topic: Road to NCAAs  (Read 4373 times)

1SE

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2022, 04:17:38 PM »
18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out. Though I do think that Illinois win will age like a sharp cheddar. I think 19 is lock and we probably avoid Dayton, 18 and we're sweating Dayton or NIT.

As far as cancellations, I think the number to keep in mind is 5.5, which is the gap number I like to look at for high majors. Generally, if you have 6 more wins than losses, you're in. So 19-13, 20-14, or in the case of cancellations, 17-11, 18-12 should be safe. If the gap is 4-5, it's more dicey. 19-14, 18-13, or 17-12 might do it, but it's no lock. 19-15, 18-14, 17-13, that's not unheard of, but it will get you left out more often than not.

And I know there's always the 16-14 Georgia outlier, but it's such an outlier that I don't think it's useful for projection purposes.

I don't have any way to check this quickly, but it seems like the 10 and 11 at large seeds usually gave a few 18 win high majors. With no bad losses and already a clutch of nice wins I just can't see us missing out if we get to 18.
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MU82

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #26 on: January 09, 2022, 04:53:40 PM »
Let's just get to 19 -- or better yet, 20+ -- so we don't have to sweat it!

There. Problem solved!
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #27 on: January 09, 2022, 05:02:08 PM »
Yes, by all means, avoid it. It can be very painful.

Did willie just admit to having the clap or something?
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Uncle Rico

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #28 on: January 09, 2022, 05:05:46 PM »
Did willie just admit to having the clap or something?

It would explain a lot
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tower912

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #29 on: January 09, 2022, 05:19:28 PM »
He could have gotten a shot for it, but, you know.....
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #30 on: January 09, 2022, 05:29:26 PM »
I don't have any way to check this quickly, but it seems like the 10 and 11 at large seeds usually gave a few 18 win high majors. With no bad losses and already a clutch of nice wins I just can't see us missing out if we get to 18.

High major win totals in Dayton in the last 5 full Tournaments:

2019: 21-win St John's, 22-win Arizona State
2018: 20-win Arizona State & Syracuse, 21-win UCLA
2017: 19-win Wake Forest, 20-win Providence & K-State, 24-win USC
2016: 19-win Vanderbilt, 22-win Michigan
2015: 20-win Mississippi

Without digging, I'm sure there are numerous 18-20 win high majors left out each year.
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NCMUFan

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #31 on: January 09, 2022, 05:53:42 PM »
In the crazy Covid environment with game cancellations, I have to believe the win to loss differential will be more valuable this year than total wins. 

robmufan

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2022, 07:24:08 PM »
In the crazy Covid environment with game cancellations, I have to believe the win to loss differential will be more valuable this year than total wins.

I would say this is a less favorable scenario for us already.

Could be more reliant on NET and computer metrics than before (I guess they are about one in the same).

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #33 on: January 09, 2022, 07:44:05 PM »
Also, these next 2 games are huge. Really need to win em both because the 6 game stretch after that is going to be reallllll tough. Starting with pummeling Gtown was perfect, now need to get 2 more. Then you can afford a 2-4 stretch @Nova, v X, @SHU, @PC, v Nova and @UCONN. 6-7 heading into final 6 or 7 BE games should be in a decent spot. Lots of ifs, but if we play 80% as good as we did the last 2 games, I like our chances of going 4-4 or better in the next 8.

If we are 6-7 after the first 13 games currently scheduled.

That is far better than a decent spot.

I think just about every bracket currently has us in. Go 4-4 with what I believe would be 3 Q1 wins anyway you slice it, I see that enhancing our odds solidly
« Last Edit: January 09, 2022, 07:45:42 PM by PGsHeroes32 »
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Freeway

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #34 on: January 09, 2022, 08:21:25 PM »
High major win totals in Dayton in the last 5 full Tournaments:

2019: 21-win St John's, 22-win Arizona State
2018: 20-win Arizona State & Syracuse, 21-win UCLA
2017: 19-win Wake Forest, 20-win Providence & K-State, 24-win USC
2016: 19-win Vanderbilt, 22-win Michigan
2015: 20-win Mississippi

Without digging, I'm sure there are numerous 18-20 win high majors left out each year.

I’m curious how the 20 game conference schedule will affect this. This is only year two for the Big East and last year was washout with cancelled games.


GoldenEagles03

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #35 on: January 09, 2022, 09:57:36 PM »
A six game losing streak would not go over very well here. I think we get in relatively safely. The bottom teams are pretty weak in this conference and I think we can match up with the top teams well also. Expecting some fun games down the stretch.

Relatively safely...what!?
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1SE

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #36 on: January 10, 2022, 04:22:55 AM »
High major win totals in Dayton in the last 5 full Tournaments:

2019: 21-win St John's, 22-win Arizona State
2018: 20-win Arizona State & Syracuse, 21-win UCLA
2017: 19-win Wake Forest, 20-win Providence & K-State, 24-win USC
2016: 19-win Vanderbilt, 22-win Michigan
2015: 20-win Mississippi

Without digging, I'm sure there are numerous 18-20 win high majors left out each year.

Yeah, so 18 really doesn't seem to ever be enough, although seem to be enough high-major 19-14 and 19-15 teams (so 3 or 4 win "gap" so maybe a 5 game gap at 18-13 would be enough)  - my memory must be going - also looks like the first four at large teams also have 20 or more wins usually.

2019 FL 19-15 (10), OSU 19-14 (11), OK 19-13 (9)
2018 OK 18-13 (10), AL 19-15 (9), TX 19-14 (10)
2017 Vandy 19-15 (9), Mich 19-14 (9)
2016 Cuse 19-13 (10)

That really leaves us with very little margin for error. I guess it will be TBW all season! 
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rocket ALM surgeon

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #37 on: January 10, 2022, 06:14:43 AM »
Did willie just admit to having the clap or something?

or sunburn...gotta cover up the willie
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bilsu

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #38 on: January 10, 2022, 09:15:54 AM »
I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #39 on: January 10, 2022, 09:28:15 AM »
I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.

I'm hoping this year we finally get all 6 "easy" wins in the conference and lay our eggs against fellow bubble teams. Would much rather have PC return a blow out against us than DePaul GTown or Butler eek out a frustrating win.
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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #40 on: January 10, 2022, 09:38:25 AM »
I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.

Wouldn't 32 games mean 21-11?
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brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #41 on: January 10, 2022, 09:53:29 AM »
I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.

22-10 would certainly get us in. Definite single-digit seed, probably in the 6-7 range.
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #42 on: January 10, 2022, 10:13:53 AM »
I always felt we needed 10 more wins than losses to be in for sure. 32 games means 22-10.
Factors that effect this is strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses and upsets in other conference tournaments. Losing to DePaul would be a bad omen.

At 22-10 we’d be waaaaaaaay in. It would not matter in the slightest which of our remaining games we win and lose to get to that number.
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cheebs09

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #43 on: January 10, 2022, 10:26:22 AM »
Yeah, so 18 really doesn't seem to ever be enough, although seem to be enough high-major 19-14 and 19-15 teams (so 3 or 4 win "gap" so maybe a 5 game gap at 18-13 would be enough)  - my memory must be going - also looks like the first four at large teams also have 20 or more wins usually.

2019 FL 19-15 (10), OSU 19-14 (11), OK 19-13 (9)
2018 OK 18-13 (10), AL 19-15 (9), TX 19-14 (10)
2017 Vandy 19-15 (9), Mich 19-14 (9)
2016 Cuse 19-13 (10)

That really leaves us with very little margin for error. I guess it will be TBW all season!

How much does this change with conferences moving to 20 game seasons? I’m guessing records on average may come down a game or two based on one or two less buy games compared to 2016 and 2017.

brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #44 on: January 10, 2022, 10:43:13 AM »
How much does this change with conferences moving to 20 game seasons? I’m guessing records on average may come down a game or two based on one or two less buy games compared to 2016 and 2017.

It could, maybe changing the usual 19-20 game threshold to 18-19, but I'm skeptical. So far, we only have one season with one high-major contest in terms of data available, which was the 2019 Big 10. No team got in with less than 19 wins that year. If you use the consensus 2020 bracket, you could add the Big 10 and ACC that year, but that would add another 19-win team and no one else with less than 20.

That said, we're looking at super-small sample size, so nothing very definitive.
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MUMonster03

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #45 on: January 11, 2022, 11:07:39 AM »
It could, maybe changing the usual 19-20 game threshold to 18-19, but I'm skeptical. So far, we only have one season with one high-major contest in terms of data available, which was the 2019 Big 10. No team got in with less than 19 wins that year. If you use the consensus 2020 bracket, you could add the Big 10 and ACC that year, but that would add another 19-win team and no one else with less than 20.

That said, we're looking at super-small sample size, so nothing very definitive.

Since the 2011 tournament only two 18 win teams have received an At-Large bid, not counting 2021. (Oklahoma in 2018 and Oklahoma State in 2015 and both avoided the play-in)

19 wins seems to get the conversation started but the quality at 19 matters a lot, hence why you see 20+ win teams in the play-in games.

brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #46 on: January 11, 2022, 01:13:54 PM »
Since the 2011 tournament only two 18 win teams have received an At-Large bid, not counting 2021. (Oklahoma in 2018 and Oklahoma State in 2015 and both avoided the play-in)

19 wins seems to get the conversation started but the quality at 19 matters a lot, hence why you see 20+ win teams in the play-in games.

Cancellations are the reason I could see us getting in at 18. If we are 18-13, we have a shot. If we make up St. John's and go 18-14, I'm doubtful. Though that Illinois win is aging really well. Come Selection Sunday, it could have similar value to the Villanova win in 2017.
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1SE

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #47 on: January 15, 2022, 04:06:04 PM »
The road is open. At the end of the day vs. SH should age better than a CU win would have but my blood pressure didn't need either game.

Win even one of the next 6 and we should have a very strong resume barring a Wojo-style February collapse. Win more than one of the next six and we should be talking seed rather than bubble.
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Scoop Snoop

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #48 on: January 15, 2022, 04:09:46 PM »
The road is open. At the end of the day vs. SH should age better than a CU win would have but my blood pressure didn't need either game.

Win even one of the next 6 and we should have a very strong resume barring a Wojo-style February collapse. Win more than one of the next six and we should be talking seed rather than bubble.

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brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #49 on: January 15, 2022, 04:19:58 PM »
Lots of good results. That should remain a Q1 win in the morning and gives us 3 as long as WVU doesn't fall below 50.

Illinois blasting Michigan last night helps. St Bonaventure's win moved them to Q2 status, so no more bad losses. K-State beating Texas Tech will push them close to being a Q1 road win. Excellent 24 hours for us.
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