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Author Topic: Sports Betting Thread  (Read 1048 times)

BM1090

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Sports Betting Thread
« on: January 08, 2022, 11:20:34 AM »
Starting this topic because we have had some decent discussion in some other threads over the past couple of months. Plus maybe we can all make some money off of Dish’s picks.

Have PC -3.5 today in a bounce back game. Wanted New Hampshire -9.5 but it was not available at my book.

Staying away from the NFL games today.

BLM

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2022, 11:37:00 AM »
What site do people from Wisconsin use? I was using Bovada but then realized you can only cash out in Bitcoin or pay $100 for a check to come months later. Neither is attractive to me.
Black Lives Matter

Retire0

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2022, 11:45:27 AM »
I got under 45 in Chiefs game today.

Couple unders in some low level college basketball if you want to get deep.
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

JWags85

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2022, 11:50:58 AM »
What site do people from Wisconsin use? I was using Bovada but then realized you can only cash out in Bitcoin or pay $100 for a check to come months later. Neither is attractive to me.

Do you have a Coinbase account? Bovada processes the Bitcoin pay outs in an hour these days and it’s in your account within 2 and then can be in your bank next day

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2022, 12:16:10 PM »
I’m here for all the deserved ridicule coming my way.

For me, sports betting is about information that exists and trying to find value. Example, I loved WFT to win the NFC East at +240 in the preseason. But, I probably shouldn’t have trusted Ryan Fitzpatrick to do so. Conversely, I thought the Ravens preseason injuries would be too much over 18 weeks for them to make the playoffs at +330. We’ll see if that winds up a winner tomorrow.

My favorite bet of this weekend is Packers first half -3 (-105 on DK). It’s -1.5 on FD at -140 but that value stinks. Big asterisk here is this is contingent on Rodgers starting. I think he wants to play and give an eff you performance to wrap up the MVP award.


Jockey

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2022, 12:36:36 PM »
I’m here for all the deserved ridicule coming my way.

For me, sports betting is about information that exists and trying to find value. Example, I loved WFT to win the NFC East at +240 in the preseason. But, I probably shouldn’t have trusted Ryan Fitzpatrick to do so. Conversely, I thought the Ravens preseason injuries would be too much over 18 weeks for them to make the playoffs at +330. We’ll see if that winds up a winner tomorrow.


I agree 100% with this statement - but do you think most bettors understand that concept? The serious guys do, but the average better has no idea what you mean when you say that.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2022, 12:57:53 PM »
I agree 100% with this statement - but do you think most bettors understand that concept? The serious guys do, but the average better has no idea what you mean when you say that.

No, they don’t. And I include myself in that to some degree. I am sure to look for value in game lines, 1H lines, live betting when a team gets off to an unreasonably hot or cold start. The majority of money I make comes from live lines. My best sport is CFB even though I watch less of it than any other sport. Probably because I really solely on data and have no emotional interest in any outcome.

But I have a lot of room to grow when it comes to futures.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2022, 01:01:25 PM by BM1090 »

Jockey

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2022, 01:09:25 PM »
No, they don’t. And I include myself in that to some degree. I am sure to look for value in game lines, 1H lines, live betting when a team gets off to an unreasonably hot or cold start. The majority of money I make comes from live lines. My best sport is CFB even though I watch less of it than any other sport. Probably because I really solely on data and have no emotional interest in any outcome.

But I have a lot of room to grow when it comes to futures.

Do you think it is more of a problem with having the time necessary to do it rather than the will or knowledge? Especially with futures.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2022, 01:17:35 PM »
Do you think it is more of a problem with having the time necessary to do it rather than the will or knowledge? Especially with futures.

Yes. For a lot of people that’s the case. With live lines you have to be online and monitoring the games constantly to find value and most people (myself included) don’t have time to do that every day.

But there is always going to be a large group of people who gamble without any knowledge. It’s been especially apparent over the last couple years when I’ve had a chance to visit visit some smaller Midwestern casinos with sportsbooks.

Uncle Rico

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2022, 01:19:36 PM »
Gambling is a sin
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2022, 01:31:10 PM »
I agree, I love live lines. My two most profitable endeavors this year have been the NCAA tournament and this recent bowl season. There’s plenty of data going into both, and then eye test as the game is going. It is tough with live betting because the book feed is always a minute faster than the tv feed. If you’re streaming, it’s even worse.

I’m guilty of it, but most people bet with their heart. As long as one doesn’t take it too seriously, that’s ok. I’m wrong a lot, but I’m betting peanuts. For me it’s more the satisfaction of winning, because lord knows whatever profit I win on one bet, eventually I’m going to give it right back to the house, probably sooner rather than later.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2022, 01:32:00 PM »
Looked dicey for a half but Providence was my lock of the morning.

Feel good about KU and OU spreads

LSU is the lock of the rest of the day
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2022, 03:32:38 PM »
Like Ga Tech ML -105 as well

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2022, 04:07:55 PM »
Wash St moneyline +110 on DK.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2022, 04:13:18 PM »
Wash St moneyline +110 on DK.

That line vanished fast as the Carlson being out news was breaking. Grabbed it just in time.

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2022, 04:54:46 PM »
Took Nova and PC today. Stayed away from UConn/Hall.
Usually bet Big East games….Only bet on MU side….can’t stomach the alternative.

Jockey

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2022, 06:43:03 PM »
Took Nova and PC today. Stayed away from UConn/Hall.
Usually bet Big East games….Only bet on MU side….can’t stomach the alternative.

I loved PC as well. I hate betting DePaul games. They always lose, but keep a lot of games close.

JWags85

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2022, 06:56:11 PM »
Like Ga Tech ML -105 as well

GT begging ND to win the game

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2022, 07:00:14 PM »
Looked dicey for a half but Providence was my lock of the morning.

Feel good about KU and OU spreads

LSU is the lock of the rest of the day

Unfortunately KU forgot there was a game today.

OU realized in time and blew the doors off the clones the final 10.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2022, 07:23:50 PM »
GT begging ND to win the game

Yeah that wasn’t great. Oh well.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2022, 07:58:20 PM »
Gambling is a sin

Discussion of which is banned in the Scoop forum rules (the illegal part). Will Rocky act quicker than the SOTG awardee selection?
« Last Edit: January 09, 2022, 12:56:23 AM by Dr. Blackheart »

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2022, 08:39:55 PM »
I loved PC as well. I hate betting DePaul games. They always lose, but keep a lot of games close.
Agreed…..PC crushed them but they hung around all day today…made me anxious.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2022, 08:42:08 AM »
Packers 1st half total over 12.5 +100 on FD.

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2022, 09:52:40 AM »
DD—I’m riding Packers 1/2 half prop bets today. #12 is going to everything in his power to get two TDs ASAP before he gets pulled.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2022, 10:14:47 AM »
Giants Team Total under 15.5

Over their last 7 games, Giants are averaging 8.8 points per game. Fromm is starting, his backup is Brian Lewerke.

Gronk over 6.5 receptions on FD -105

Gronk needs 7 receptions to hit a $500k bonus. Last year in Week 17, the Bucs fed Mike Evans in a meaningless game to help him get over 1000 yards. Ironically Evans got hurt on the catch to get him over 1000. Brady is going to do everything he can to feed Gronk early and often today.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2022, 10:50:33 AM »
Kyle Pitts over 61.5

cheebs09

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #26 on: January 09, 2022, 12:42:47 PM »
DD—I’m riding Packers 1/2 half prop bets today. #12 is going to everything in his power to get two TDs ASAP before he gets pulled.

Is there a significance to 2 TDs for Rodgers?

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #27 on: January 09, 2022, 01:06:42 PM »
Man, if one was late and got Pack first half total at 13.5 instead of 12.5, I feel for ya.

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #28 on: January 09, 2022, 01:24:15 PM »
Is there a significance to 2 TDs for Rodgers?
No—other than strengthening his case for MVP and get out.

Jockey

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #29 on: January 09, 2022, 03:01:39 PM »
Today was a perfect example why you avoid week 18 bets.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #30 on: January 09, 2022, 03:07:06 PM »
Today was a perfect example why you avoid week 18 bets.

On the contrary, it’s been a fantastic day so far, sans Packers first half -3.

I forgot to post Andrews over 65.5, which just also hit.

Jockey

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #31 on: January 09, 2022, 03:16:27 PM »
On the contrary, it’s been a fantastic day so far, sans Packers first half -3.

I forgot to post Andrews over 65.5, which just also hit.

I should have said betting winner/ loser point spreads.

May be more opportunities with props.

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #32 on: January 10, 2022, 11:38:15 AM »
Thanks for the tips DD. Won big on Gronk.
After Detroit’s failed fake punt…..short field for #12……thought we would be looking at 14-0 and riding high. Not the case.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #33 on: January 10, 2022, 11:59:59 AM »
Thanks for the tips DD. Won big on Gronk.
After Detroit’s failed fake punt…..short field for #12……thought we would be looking at 14-0 and riding high. Not the case.

Pitts wager was frustrating. Pitts needed 59 (or 58, can’t remember) to beat Ditka’s record for rookie TE yards, and I figured they’d get him a ton of targets. They didn’t even come close.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #34 on: January 10, 2022, 12:09:10 PM »
One future bet I like is Evan Neal to be the first pick at +750 on DK & FD.

This number has come down in the last ten days, I grabbed it at +1200, but still like this at +750. Assuming he has a good game tonight, I think this number will be in the 500’s tomorrow/soon.

If Jax keeps the first pick, I think the pick is Neal. Need and his elite talent fit. It obviously won’t be a QB, and I think defensively Hutchinson & Thibodeaux in a way don’t make as much sense for Jax. I do worry they’ll trade out though.

I’m also going to wait for player o/u draft spots to come out, because I’m convinced Pickett is going to Detroit at 2.

MDMU04

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #35 on: January 10, 2022, 12:53:47 PM »
NC game tonight, what is everyone thinking?

Sharp money went heavy early on Georgia -3, public money has gone on Alabama moneyline.

Saban is 5-1 at Alabama as an underdog, winning all 5 games outright.  He is also 25-1 against former assistants.  "Rat poison" as he would say.

I hammered Alabama in the SEC Championship game and against Cincinnati, but have no feel for this game.  Georgia defense with 2nd shot at Alabama without Metchie seems compelling, but I can't shake the feeling that betting against Saban in a spot like this is just asking for trouble.
"They call me eccentric. They used to call me nuts. I haven't changed." - Al McGuire

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #36 on: January 10, 2022, 12:56:36 PM »
I took Bama moneyline and the under.
Not a big bet though.

MU82

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #37 on: January 10, 2022, 07:16:04 PM »
I ain't betting, but I'll say Georgia wins.

Probably my sick-of-Bama heart talkin', though!
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #38 on: January 10, 2022, 08:08:00 PM »
Have UGA -3. Started the night well with IUPUI +8.5 earlier.

Also like the live line of Bethune Cookman +8.5.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2022, 08:15:39 PM by BM1090 »

BLM

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #39 on: January 10, 2022, 08:23:56 PM »
Georgia might win. But I’d never bet against Saban. Especially as a dog. (Which, insanely enough, has only been 6 times in his Bama career before tonight. 5-1 ATS, all 5 straight up wins).
Black Lives Matter

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #40 on: January 11, 2022, 09:06:21 AM »
I took Bama moneyline and the under.
Not a big bet though.
Went well for about 3 quarters…..

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2022, 09:36:28 AM »
One future bet I like is Evan Neal to be the first pick at +750 on DK & FD.

This number has come down in the last ten days, I grabbed it at +1200, but still like this at +750. Assuming he has a good game tonight, I think this number will be in the 500’s tomorrow/soon.

If Jax keeps the first pick, I think the pick is Neal. Need and his elite talent fit. It obviously won’t be a QB, and I think defensively Hutchinson & Thibodeaux in a way don’t make as much sense for Jax. I do worry they’ll trade out though.

I’m also going to wait for player o/u draft spots to come out, because I’m convinced Pickett is going to Detroit at 2.

Not sure if anyone grabbed this, but Neal is down to +275 now on DK.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #42 on: January 15, 2022, 12:44:28 PM »
Delaware first half +2.5 -106 on FD.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #43 on: January 15, 2022, 12:51:14 PM »
Columbia/Harvard under 146.5 -110 on DK.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #44 on: January 15, 2022, 01:42:53 PM »
Columbia/Harvard under 146.5 -110 on DK.

Both teams leading scorers were late scratches, as well as three other starters combined were late scratches as well.

So of course the teams combined for 85 first half points.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #45 on: January 15, 2022, 02:12:11 PM »
Both teams leading scorers were late scratches, as well as three other starters combined were late scratches as well.

So of course the teams combined for 85 first half points.

Got the rare double win today. MU ML and hedged on the SHU live line at +7.5.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #46 on: January 15, 2022, 02:13:17 PM »
NFL games today…I think both home teams win big. But I’m not sure I have the balls to bet the games.

Texas live ML is decent value at +180.

Edit: glad I didn’t do this. Cannot figure out Iowa State.

Edit #2. Did take the Bengals at -5.5. Big money is going against me on this one.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2022, 02:46:03 PM by BM1090 »

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #47 on: January 15, 2022, 02:22:24 PM »
Got the rare double win today. MU ML and hedged on the SHU live line at +7.5.

Nice, that’s a heady play and a smart hedge.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #48 on: January 15, 2022, 03:14:34 PM »
ISU and Bama ML were my Bball picks of the day.

Taking the over in Cincy/Raiders. I think Cincy wins but not confident enough on the growing spread.

Pounding Bills
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #49 on: January 15, 2022, 04:03:46 PM »
ISU and Bama ML were my Bball picks of the day.

Taking the over in Cincy/Raiders. I think Cincy wins but not confident enough on the growing spread.

Pounding Bills

It shrunk from 6.5 to 5.5 today which is when I jumped on it.

Agree on Buffalo.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #50 on: January 15, 2022, 07:19:42 PM »
I'll take the Cincinnati cover but I don't feel great about it.

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #51 on: January 15, 2022, 07:35:19 PM »
Yeah…take that one. 1st (well really 2nd) and goal from the 9….

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #52 on: January 15, 2022, 08:29:08 PM »
Sneaky great value live bet. Bills started their 4th drive at their own 11. They’ve been unstoppable on offense tonight.

DK live flash prop of Buffalo fourth drive to cross the 50 was +130, or to cross NE 35 at +155.

Both won, took all of 2 plays.

Watch for it in the early/mid third quarter. Bills aren’t going to pump the brakes in the third. Key to the value on this bet is crummy starting field position.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #53 on: January 15, 2022, 08:32:00 PM »
Wins this weekend - Bonnies, Fresno State, Bengals, NIU, TCU live ML, MU, Bills barring a huge collapse, James Madison live +8

Losses - Bucks live ML, Richmond, Baylor live +6.5 (ouch), SHU live ML vs. DePaul

Tomorrow I think I like Dallas. Staying away from the other two

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #54 on: January 15, 2022, 08:32:48 PM »
Sneaky great value live bet. Bills started their 4th drive at their own 11. They’ve been unstoppable on offense tonight.

DK live flash prop of Buffalo fourth drive to cross the 50 was +130, or to cross NE 35 at +155.

Both won, took all of 2 plays.

Watch for it in the early/mid third quarter. Bills aren’t going to pump the brakes in the third. Key to the value on this bet is crummy starting field position.

Good call.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #55 on: January 15, 2022, 09:00:18 PM »
Bills to cross 20 is +110 this drive.

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #56 on: January 16, 2022, 10:45:01 AM »
I did end up going with Dallas -3. Public and sharps seem to be on SF, and I understand why, but SF’s secondary can be exploited and Dallas has the weapons to exploit them.

How does everyone feel about TB-PHI? I want to believe that PHI has a chance but I’m not sure I see a reasonable path to victory outside of fluking into some turnover luck.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #57 on: January 16, 2022, 01:46:53 PM »
If you believe Minshew is coming in, Hurts live under totals are quite tempting.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #58 on: January 16, 2022, 03:28:19 PM »
Iowa over Minny got dicey. Only bball pick for the day.

Take cowboys -3 but dont feel super confident on it.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

BM1090

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #59 on: January 16, 2022, 06:05:17 PM »
I severely underestimated McCarthy’s ineptitude.

BLM

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #60 on: January 16, 2022, 06:21:01 PM »
I severely underestimated McCarthy’s ineptitude.

That’s a mistake.
Black Lives Matter

DegenerateDish

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #61 on: January 16, 2022, 09:40:56 PM »
I jumped off my couch and gave a loud “YES!!!”.

We R Final Four

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #62 on: January 16, 2022, 09:59:37 PM »
Wow—that’s awesome.

MU82

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Re: Sports Betting Thread
« Reply #63 on: January 16, 2022, 10:10:23 PM »
That's cool, Dish.

Really took a lot of guts to bet $10K on that!
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

 

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