Must Win Tonight v. PC to Salvage Season

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

What's the over-under on how many "must win game" threads Scoop will have this season?

[mu_hilltopper]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

[Viper]

I want to see this team in the NCAAs, but if I knew going in that the options were one-and-done in the NCAAs or winning a few NIT games (and maybe all the NIT games) then for this team, I'd take the NIT. Those games at the Al in 2018 were tremendous fun and Shaka is undefeated in postseason non-NCAA tournament games. No, it's not the Big Dance, but while I'll always take the NCAA bid beforehand, there is no doubt in my mind that the most fun postseason under Wojo was the 2018 NIT. Winning games and cheering for the team you love trumps getting blasted by a superior opponent on the first day.

And I'd definitely take NIT over no postseason at all.

brings up an interesting question...make the ncaa but get the doors blown off in rd 1, or WIN the NIT and hang a banner?

[Ben Golds Five]

How the hell is this game a Pick'em?!  Is Providence missing guys or something?

[Mu8891]

Viper - First ... I'd be " happy " w / an
NIT bid this year, given the circumstances.  At this point I think that is best case scenario.

And ... if we got a couple of home games in the NIT ... and won it ... I'd take that over a 20 point first round embarrassment.

[BM1090]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

Torvik is lower on MU than about every other analytics site. Not sure why.

It's a must win if you think they can make the tournament. If they go 10-10 in conference they can get their NET high enough to have a shot.

If you don't think that's realistic and the goal is NIT, not a must win.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Torvik is lower on MU than about every other analytics site. Not sure why.

Haslam has MU at #109. Why? MU has one of the worst ranked offenses amongst high majors. Let's hope it starts to click.

[DoctorV]

Thing is, one nice "comfortable" double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it's now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren't out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton...

Hopefully the former. Leggo

[GooooMarquette]

Ahhh, the weekly "must win" thread.

Our first must win game is in NYC in March....

[bilsu]

It is a must win. Beat Providence and we have good vibes going forward. Lose to Providence and the team's confidence takes another hit.

[Ben Golds Five]

Can anyone tell me how this game is a Pick'em. Seriously, am I missing something?  Did Providence get hit with Covid? They get in a car accident on the way to Fiserv?  I have never bet against a team I root for but this doesn't make sense to me.

[jfp61]

Can anyone tell me how this game is a Pick'em. Seriously, am I missing something?  Did Providence get hit with Covid? They get in a car accident on the way to Fiserv?  I have never bet against a team I root for but this doesn't make sense to me.

Reeves is out, and PC is overrated.

[Ben Golds Five]

Thanks jfp.  And we got on the baby blues. 😁. Hope we pull this crap out!

[DoctorV]

Thing is, one nice "comfortable" double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it's now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren't out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton...

Hopefully the former. Leggo

NostraDrV. This one felt good

[panda]

NostraDrV. This one felt good

Would've been better without the hedge at the end ;-)

[DoctorV]

Would've been better without the hedge at the end ;-)

Haha gotta modify that post real quick

[Miss Katie’s]

Check. 

[We R Final Four]

Thing is, one nice "comfortable" double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it's now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren't out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton...

Hopefully the former. Leggo

#boomgoesthedynamite

[BrewCity83]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

This post hasn't aged well.  And it only took about 4 hours to get stale!

[DoctorV]

This post hasn't aged well.  And it only took about 4 hours to get stale!

He did plus "plus or minus a game or two" 🤪

In all honesty once you kind of just let infarct from the Creighton game and the orgasm from last nights game run their course you start to realize that this squad should likely win somewhere in the range of 8-11 BE games.

Hopefully 10 rather than 8. I just can't see any conceivable way where a letdown game, or two, don't happen in the conference slate. Hopefully not Friday at GTown or at home versus DePaul, let the excitement grow a little!

[Lennys Tap]

Can anyone tell me how this game is a Pick'em. Seriously, am I missing something?  Did Providence get hit with Covid? They get in a car accident on the way to Fiserv?  I have never bet against a team I root for but this doesn't make sense to me.

Good call, line was ridiculous.  MU should have been -30!

[brewcity77]

In terms of season salvaging, our kenpom is up to 61 and NET is up to 57, both very bubbly after having some ugly metrics. While the resume could use some polish, this is the kind of metric win that can have us in the bubble discussion right up until Selection Sunday.

[BM1090]

In terms of season salvaging, our kenpom is up to 61 and NET is up to 57, both very bubbly after having some ugly metrics. While the resume could use some polish, this is the kind of metric win that can have us in the bubble discussion right up until Selection Sunday.

Yep. Probably need to win the next two to start talking NCAA tournament again, but 11-6 (3-3) with 4 good wins would be a start.

[Shooter McGavin]

Yep. Probably need to win the next two to start talking NCAA tournament again, but 11-6 (3-3) with 4 good wins would be a start.

Agreed.  This is very possible and would bring some energy to the building at home games.  Just bought 5 tickets to the Xavier game.  Was planning to go regardless of last night but now I am more excited.  I think we take them down a couple weeks from now.  Kenpom mid 30s here we come!!

[brewcity77]

Agreed.  This is very possible and would bring some energy to the building at home games.  Just bought 5 tickets to the Xavier game.  Was planning to go regardless of last night but now I am more excited.  I think we take them down a couple weeks from now.  Kenpom mid 30s here we come!!

Bonnies haven't played since December 17th and return to action Saturday. I'm really hoping they get to the top-100 so it's a Q2 loss by the end of the year. They are favored in their next 7 and if they get going hot it would really help us, but that's a long layoff and starts with a tough home test in St. Louis. Probably the biggest game of the weekend for us that doesn't involve Marquette directly.