Must Win Tonight v. PC to Salvage Season

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight is pretty much a must win to salvage any sort of  postseason play this seson.  Down 0-4 with 3 home losses makes it pretty much impossible for this group to claw back to .500 in BE play.  Going to be tough - PC is old, experience and playing really well right now.

Would love to see the boys find a way to execute the game plan and come out with a W tonight! Let's make it happen. Fingers crossed.

[BM1090]

Agreed. Must win. I thought if they beat Creighton they would win 4 in a row. No luck there. Maybe they can still make it 3 in a row.

Is anyone out for PC? The line swung from MU +2 to MU -2.

[hawk]

Way early for the "must win" stuff.  The tale of this team starts with De Paul, St. Johns, Georgetown and Butler.  So far all this season shows is that MU is not a top 25 team.  I for one am not shocked by that.  9-11 in conference would be a good result and a little run in the conference tourny might steal a id.  The big east  has 4 ranked and 2 others receiving votes teams. I would be happy with some growth this season and an NIT bid.  Have to start somewhere and that would be a good place.

[BM1090]

Way early for the "must win" stuff.  The tale of this team starts with De Paul, St. Johns, Georgetown and Butler.  So far all this season shows is that MU is not a top 25 team.  I for one am not shocked by that.  9-11 in conference would be a good result and a little run in the conference tourny might steal a id.  The big east  has 4 ranked and 2 others receiving votes teams. I would be happy with some growth this season and an NIT bid.  Have to start somewhere and that would be a good place.

Even if you sweep those 4 teams (unlikely) you have to find 2-3 other wins.

[BrewCity83]

Way early for the "must win" stuff.  The tale of this team starts with De Paul, St. Johns, Georgetown and Butler.  So far all this season shows is that MU is not a top 25 team.  I for one am not shocked by that.  9-11 in conference would be a good result and a little run in the conference tourny might steal a id.  The big east  has 4 ranked and 2 others receiving votes teams. I would be happy with some growth this season and an NIT bid.  Have to start somewhere and that would be a good place.

Agreed.  They could (mathematically) lose tonight and still go 16-4 in conference.  Now I know this doesn't look like a 16-4 team right now, but the schedule will get easier...

[MuggsyB]

100% correct.  Absolute must win game this evening.  I believe we will will get the W and back on track.

[Mu8891]

So ... please tell me none of you think
MU will sweep Gtown, DePaul, SJU and Butler ?!  They will go about 4 / 4 ... give or take a game ... in that group.

Right now ... as bad as they are, I don’t see where MU gets to even 7 BE wins.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It literally is not a must win.

[brewcity77]

If you are hoping for an NCAA berth, then it's probably close to must-win. Even if we sweep Butler/DePaul/Georgetown, we need to get at least 4, more likely 5, other wins in our remaining 9 to make the field of 68 with 5 on the road.

If you are happy with an NIT berth, then we probably only need 2 more wins if you get that B/D/G sweep, so there's a decent chance of continuing to play past the BET.

If you are just looking forward to this team being better in February and March than they are in December and January, then tonight is absolutely not a must-win in any sense of the words.

[The Lens]

The Midgets started off 2-5, including a bad loss to DePaul.  We thought that was a flawed team that had some flukey pre conf success.  Then they righted the ship.

You never know.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If you are hoping for an NCAA berth, then it's probably close to must-win. Even if we sweep Butler/DePaul/Georgetown, we need to get at least 4, more likely 5, other wins in our remaining 9 to make the field of 68 with 5 on the road.

If you are happy with an NIT berth, then we probably only need 2 more wins if you get that B/D/G sweep, so there's a decent chance of continuing to play past the BET.

If you are just looking forward to this team being better in February and March than they are in December and January, then tonight is absolutely not a must-win in any sense of the words.

If we lose tonight, we can still make the NCAA tournament.  Therefore it is not a must win.

[brewcity77]

The Midgets started off 2-5, including a bad loss to DePaul.  We thought that was a flawed team that had some flukey pre conf success.  Then they righted the ship.

You never know.

They did, but that felt more predictable. Per kenpom, when the Midgets finished the regular season 9-2, that included 7 wins in an 11-game stretch over sub-65 teams. We have 7 games against sub-65 teams left, but the other 9 are against top-50 teams. Our conference schedule this year is tougher than the one the Midgets faced. So much for that "New Big East is weaker" fiction people like to peddle.

[DoctorV]

Agreed. Must win. I thought if they beat Creighton they would win 4 in a row. No luck there. Maybe they can still make it 3 in a row.

Is anyone out for PC? The line swung from MU +2 to MU -2.

Very strange. Line continues to move towards MU. Seems extremely surprising that Marquette would be favored

[hawk]

For this team to succeed this season they have to figure out how to have more than one guy to have a good game at a time.  It is the pain of youth that there is a wide range of outcomes game over game.  Prosper and Joplin had good games and oso didn't then Oso goes off for 20+ and  Lewis struggled a bit and prosper and Joplin didn't do much.  If you can imagine a team with Prosper, Igadoro, Lewis Kolek  and jones all playing well at the same time you can imagine an NCAA worthy team

[dgies9156]

If you are happy with an NIT berth, then we probably only need 2 more wins if you get that B/D/G sweep, so there's a decent chance of continuing to play past the BET.

Yuck, I say, YUCK!!!!!

[brewcity77]

Yuck, I say, YUCK!!!!!

I want to see this team in the NCAAs, but if I knew going in that the options were one-and-done in the NCAAs or winning a few NIT games (and maybe all the NIT games) then for this team, I'd take the NIT. Those games at the Al in 2018 were tremendous fun and Shaka is undefeated in postseason non-NCAA tournament games. No, it's not the Big Dance, but while I'll always take the NCAA bid beforehand, there is no doubt in my mind that the most fun postseason under Wojo was the 2018 NIT. Winning games and cheering for the team you love trumps getting blasted by a superior opponent on the first day.

And I'd definitely take NIT over no postseason at all.

[MU82]

If you are hoping for an NCAA berth, then it's probably close to must-win. Even if we sweep Butler/DePaul/Georgetown, we need to get at least 4, more likely 5, other wins in our remaining 9 to make the field of 68 with 5 on the road.

If you are happy with an NIT berth, then we probably only need 2 more wins if you get that B/D/G sweep, so there's a decent chance of continuing to play past the BET.

If you are just looking forward to this team being better in February and March than they are in December and January, then tonight is absolutely not a must-win in any sense of the words.

I'm "looking" for us to win every game. But I know that's not realistic. Also not realistic is thinking we'll rout PC (or any team, really). So I'm hoping that we can do what we've been doing -- hanging in games, rallying when necessary (and it's always necessary), being close at the end, and then actually pulling one out, as we did vs. Ill, Miss, WV and KSU (and UNH and SIUE). Need somebody to step up big down the stretch, need a little luck, maybe need a ref's call, whatever. And need to avoid tragically bad plays and/or poor coaching decisions.

[NCMUFan]

Hoping for a competitive game with this time MU having more points at the end than the opponents.  If not, well life goes on.

[muwarrior69]

Is Kam playing?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we lose tonight, we can still make the NCAA tournament.  Therefore it is not a must win.

Lol, you're taking it far too literally.  A loss tonight makes going 10-10 that much harder.  Big difference between 1-3 and 0-4, just like there was big difference between 1-2 and 0-3 on Saturday.

Anything is possible, but for MU to have any realistic shot at making the tournament (which is a benchmark this program should strive to achieve every season), this game is a must win.

[Uncle Rico]

Is Kam playing?

Yes

[BM1090]

Reeves is questionable but looks like he will play

[Dr. Blackheart]

What's the line of a runaway bat, ice skating slippery floor or a Parka'ed up brother of a player entering the floor to call a time out?

[Spotcheck Billy]

What's the line of a runaway bat, ice skating slippery floor or a Parka'ed up brother of a player entering the floor to call a time out?

My wife still brings up Cooley ducking from the bat when she sees him on broadcasts.

[Dr. Blackheart]

My wife still brings up Cooley ducking from the bat when she sees him on broadcasts.

Honestly, one of the most fun and coming together games played at the BC. I miss Marquette Nation.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

What's the over-under on how many "must win game" threads Scoop will have this season?

[mu_hilltopper]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

[Viper]

I want to see this team in the NCAAs, but if I knew going in that the options were one-and-done in the NCAAs or winning a few NIT games (and maybe all the NIT games) then for this team, I'd take the NIT. Those games at the Al in 2018 were tremendous fun and Shaka is undefeated in postseason non-NCAA tournament games. No, it's not the Big Dance, but while I'll always take the NCAA bid beforehand, there is no doubt in my mind that the most fun postseason under Wojo was the 2018 NIT. Winning games and cheering for the team you love trumps getting blasted by a superior opponent on the first day.

And I'd definitely take NIT over no postseason at all.

brings up an interesting question…make the ncaa but get the doors blown off in rd 1, or WIN the NIT and hang a banner?

[Ben Golds Five]

How the hell is this game a Pick'em?!  Is Providence missing guys or something?

[Mu8891]

Viper - First ... I’d be “ happy “ w / an
NIT bid this year, given the circumstances.  At this point I think that is best case scenario.

And ... if we got a couple of home games in the NIT ... and won it ... I’d take that over a 20 point first round embarrassment.

[BM1090]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

Torvik is lower on MU than about every other analytics site. Not sure why.

It’s a must win if you think they can make the tournament. If they go 10-10 in conference they can get their NET high enough to have a shot.

If you don’t think that’s realistic and the goal is NIT, not a must win.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Torvik is lower on MU than about every other analytics site. Not sure why.

Haslam has MU at #109. Why? MU has one of the worst ranked offenses amongst high majors. Let’s hope it starts to click.

[DoctorV]

Thing is, one nice “comfortable” double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it’s now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren’t out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton…

Hopefully the former. Leggo

[GooooMarquette]

Ahhh, the weekly "must win" thread.

Our first must win game is in NYC in March....

[bilsu]

It is a must win. Beat Providence and we have good vibes going forward. Lose to Providence and the team's confidence takes another hit.

[Ben Golds Five]

Can anyone tell me how this game is a Pick'em. Seriously, am I missing something?  Did Providence get hit with Covid? They get in a car accident on the way to Fiserv?  I have never bet against a team I root for but this doesn't make sense to me.

[jfp61]

Can anyone tell me how this game is a Pick'em. Seriously, am I missing something?  Did Providence get hit with Covid? They get in a car accident on the way to Fiserv?  I have never bet against a team I root for but this doesn't make sense to me.

Reeves is out, and PC is overrated.

[Ben Golds Five]

Thanks jfp.  And we got on the baby blues. 😁. Hope we pull this crap out!

[DoctorV]

Thing is, one nice “comfortable” double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it’s now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren’t out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton…

Hopefully the former. Leggo

NostraDrV. This one felt good

[panda]

NostraDrV. This one felt good

Would’ve been better without the hedge at the end ;-)

[DoctorV]

Would’ve been better without the hedge at the end ;-)

Haha gotta modify that post real quick

[Miss Katie’s]

Check. 

[We R Final Four]

Thing is, one nice “comfortable” double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it’s now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren’t out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton…

Hopefully the former. Leggo

#boomgoesthedynamite

[BrewCity83]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

This post hasn't aged well.  And it only took about 4 hours to get stale!

[DoctorV]

This post hasn't aged well.  And it only took about 4 hours to get stale!

He did plus “plus or minus a game or two” 🤪

In all honesty once you kind of just let infarct from the Creighton game and the orgasm from last nights game run their course you start to realize that this squad should likely win somewhere in the range of 8-11 BE games.

Hopefully 10 rather than 8. I just can’t see any conceivable way where a letdown game, or two, don’t happen in the conference slate. Hopefully not Friday at GTown or at home versus DePaul, let the excitement grow a little!

[Lennys Tap]

Can anyone tell me how this game is a Pick'em. Seriously, am I missing something?  Did Providence get hit with Covid? They get in a car accident on the way to Fiserv?  I have never bet against a team I root for but this doesn't make sense to me.

Good call, line was ridiculous.  MU should have been -30!

[brewcity77]

In terms of season salvaging, our kenpom is up to 61 and NET is up to 57, both very bubbly after having some ugly metrics. While the resume could use some polish, this is the kind of metric win that can have us in the bubble discussion right up until Selection Sunday.

[BM1090]

In terms of season salvaging, our kenpom is up to 61 and NET is up to 57, both very bubbly after having some ugly metrics. While the resume could use some polish, this is the kind of metric win that can have us in the bubble discussion right up until Selection Sunday.

Yep. Probably need to win the next two to start talking NCAA tournament again, but 11-6 (3-3) with 4 good wins would be a start.

[Shooter McGavin]

Yep. Probably need to win the next two to start talking NCAA tournament again, but 11-6 (3-3) with 4 good wins would be a start.

Agreed.  This is very possible and would bring some energy to the building at home games.  Just bought 5 tickets to the Xavier game.  Was planning to go regardless of last night but now I am more excited.  I think we take them down a couple weeks from now.  Kenpom mid 30s here we come!!

[brewcity77]

Agreed.  This is very possible and would bring some energy to the building at home games.  Just bought 5 tickets to the Xavier game.  Was planning to go regardless of last night but now I am more excited.  I think we take them down a couple weeks from now.  Kenpom mid 30s here we come!!

Bonnies haven't played since December 17th and return to action Saturday. I'm really hoping they get to the top-100 so it's a Q2 loss by the end of the year. They are favored in their next 7 and if they get going hot it would really help us, but that's a long layoff and starts with a tough home test in St. Louis. Probably the biggest game of the weekend for us that doesn't involve Marquette directly.

[Tha Hound]

In December, after some interesting wins, I kept looking at the Barttorvik ratings where MU was around #100 and I thought "this is wrong, MU is better than the 100th best team in the country, in a few games the stats will catch up and they'll move lower."

Now MU is #110, with a 14-16 predicted record.   Seems the rating was spot on and the prediction is likely correct, plus or minus a game or two.

PC is not a "must win" game.  MU is not moving down ~40+ spots this season.

Brew is closer to right .. MU is fighting to get an NIT invite.

    

[1SE]

I think the only "must wins" left on the schedule now are vs. GT and Butler. A Q4 loss would probably knock us down 3 or 4 seed lines.

[Shooter McGavin]

I think the only "must wins" left on the schedule now are vs. GT and Butler. A Q4 loss would probably knock us down 3 or 4 seed lines.

Ha!  That post by hilltopper did not age well.

[Carl]

Whole thread is gold

[Vander Blue Man Group]

So ... please tell me none of you think
MU will sweep Gtown, DePaul, SJU and Butler ?!  They will go about 4 / 4 ... give or take a game ... in that group.

Right now ... as bad as they are, I don’t see where MU gets to even 7 BE wins.

This was a good one, too.

[DoctorV]

Thing is, one nice “comfortable” double digit win over a top 30 NET team like Providence will move MU from 83 into the 60s again in the NET, but it would have to be a convincing win.

That would then put Marquette back in decent position to battle for a bid going forward.

There are plenty of opportunities for big NET gain wins coming up in the next month (8 of the next 10!) but of those I would argue that tonight is probably Marquettes most realistic shot at one of these wins, especially if you were to hope for a convincing double digit win.

Providence is seasoned and good, but MU usually plays them well. Justin is coming off of a really bad performance and is due for a nice bounce back game. Morsell, Kur, and Greg as senior leaders are likely starting to realize that it’s now or never on the season. The shots are bound to fall at some point and why not some tonight. Home energy versus a ranked opponent and some stifling defense for 2 halves aren’t out of the question, and Providence is due for a dud.

Or Marquette can come out like they did versus Creighton…

Hopefully the former. Leggo

This thread houses one of my favorite/best personal posts of all time.

For the record, I attribute this post to the 7 consecutive wins, or should I say 8? 😛

[NCMUFan]

I think the only "must wins" left on the schedule now are vs. GT and Butler. A Q4 loss would probably knock us down 3 or 4 seed lines.

I have to believe that to have the "We can beat anyone mentality", they will also need to beat UCONN and Creighton.  No one likes to be swept for the season. 

[1SE]

Must win to pull to .500 in our Q1A games.

[MU82]

Ah, Barttorvik ... always 100% accurate and fun!