2023 Team Outlook

[panda]

Catch and shoot:  good
Off the dribble:  bad

Don't make it complicated.

It seemed like he was really poor shooting the ball in general towards the end of the season. Not to make it complicated, but I do wonder how many shots he took because he was passing up a ton of open looks.

[DoctorV]

Thanks for the break down but sometimes you have to take statistics with a grain of salt.

I would imagine that percentage was off of an extremely low number of attempts, and is therefore skewed to make it seem like he was an elite catch and shoot 3 guy.

I remember him making a few, and I remember thinking "man if Tyler can even be average from distance, or for that matter from anywhere on the court, Marquette might find a new level"

It never came, he was unfortunately a lousy shooter.
Now if that catch and shoot 3P% was legit you could structure an offense with Stevie at PG and 2 of 3 of Greg, Kam, Kolek as the off guard with decent/good ball handling abilities and be cooking.
Of course none of them shot well as the season wound down.

Imo by far the biggest problem Marquette had offensively after that solid stretch in February was that nearly EVERYONE figured out how to defend them- give Tyler the distance J, any J for that matter, and the one on one drive to the basket. Close off the passing lanes and eliminate easy buckets for the bigs and open 3s.
Then Shaka did not adjust back, and that's on him.

As much as he gets credit from adjusting from the super run and gun and take hurried 3s offense that started the season, he gets the blame for not adjusting out of the Tyler screen and roll/dish and dive offense that was eventually figured out.

Not sure what he should've done, but that's not my day job. Maybe there was nothing to be done? Maybe crashing the O boards and going more havoc, playing guys like Stevie, Jop, Emarion to give the others some extra legs? Maybe playing Kur and Oso together to get some damn board with their 3 reb per game averages 

[panda]

I'm surprised it was 51.4%

But not surprised it was a good number. I said many times what we saw last year in limited sample he was extremely capable at catch and shoot and never cringed at him taking those shots.


It was any shot or lay up off the dribble that caused legit nightmares.

51% is really, really good. Even when he had open looks towards the end of the season, I did not feel very confident with him taking those shots. I'm not going to argue with the numbers because I don't have access to them, but that really surprised me.

[tower912]

I am not surprised.  Even when he was hitting nothing else, he seemed to regularly hit that catch and shoot 3 off of the offensive rebound and kickout.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's not very COLE-like.

Sure it is. I've always been a member of the Cult of Logical Expectations.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The difference in TK's off-the-dribble and catch-and-shoot attempts doesn't shock me, although it would be interesting to see the volume of attempts for each. 

I hope he is working on a floater this offseason.  Once teams adjusted they really cut off some of his passing lines when they knew he wasn't much of a threat to score in the paint.  I think a good floater could make a real difference. 

[MU82]

I knew Kolek was better on the catch and shoot (and pretty much a disaster with any kind of shot off the dribble), but I'll admit I'm surprised by the 51%. I wonder what the sample size was.

[jfp61]

It seemed like he was really poor shooting the ball in general towards the end of the season. Not to make it complicated, but I do wonder how many shots he took because he was passing up a ton of open looks.

End of the season was actually his best shooting time. Not that it was particularly good. It was just better than greg and morsell.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

End of the season was actually his best shooting time. Not that it was particularly good. It was just better than greg and morsell.

To give the numbers, in the last 13 games of the season, Kolek shot a respectable 36% from 3 on 3.8 attempts a game. His last 4 games though were a bit rough though, 3/13 (23.1%).

[MU82]

To give the numbers, in the last 13 games of the season, Kolek shot a respectable 36% from 3 on 3.8 attempts a game. His last 4 games though were a bit rough though, 3/13 (23.1%).

During those 13 games, Kolek had 5 mostly forgettable shooting games, followed by a 3-game stretch in which he went 7/14 (.500) from 3, followed by 5 more less-than-wonderful shooting games. In the 10 games that sammiched the 3 good ones, he shot .306.

We all can try to find stats to make things look better, but Tyler really didn't shoot well - period. And by the last month-plus, opponents starting taking advantage of his limitations.

As a team, our problems were made worse by the fact that Greg stopped hitting 3s and Kam also struggled some. After shooting 41% from 3 and 49% overall during the 8-1 stretch that put us in the conversation for a protected seed, we shot 32%/44% from Feb. 8 on. And that was on top of our defensive and rebounding woes.

[GoldenEagles03]

During those 13 games, Kolek had 5 mostly forgettable shooting games, followed by a 3-game stretch in which he went 7/14 (.500) from 3, followed by 5 more less-than-wonderful shooting games. In the 10 games that sammiched the 3 good ones, he shot .306.

We all can try to find stats to make things look better, but Tyler really didn't shoot well - period. And by the last month-plus, opponents starting taking advantage of his limitations.

As a team, our problems were made worse by the fact that Greg stopped hitting 3s and Kam also struggled some. After shooting 41% from 3 and 49% overall during the 8-1 stretch that put us in the conversation for a protected seed, we shot 32%/44% from Feb. 8 on. And that was on top of our defensive and rebounding woes.

Except for the fact that 51% is incredible. So if he's a much better shooter on the catch and shoot it may suggest he should be used in spots other than the primary ball handler. They now have a primary PG option with Jones coming in, so there are ways to make he and the offense more effective.

[brewcity77]

Honestly, I'm surprised this is that big of a talking point. When Tyler was set and someone created for him, he was money. Seriously, he was a great shooter in those situations. Go back and watch our conference play.

The problem was too often he tried to create those shots for himself off the dribble. That's why the "can I be an a-hole now" moment was so impressive, because he drained it off the dribble.

[Pakuni]

Except for the fact that 51% is incredible.

Is it, though? How many shots are we talking about? A statistically significant number? How does that compare to other shooters?
I think it's a safe assumption that every shooter is going to be better with a catch-and-shoot vs off the dribble. I'd be interested in giving the number some context before declaring anything "incredible."

Also, you really need to ease up on the Sean Jones hype train. Expecting any freshman - much less a borderline top 100 kid - to come in and immediately be your primary point guard is a big ask. Let the kid come in and find his way before heaping unrealistic expectations upon him.

[MU82]

Is it, though? How many shots are we talking about? A statistically significant number? How does that compare to other shooters?
I think it's a safe assumption that every shooter is going to be better with a catch-and-shoot vs off the dribble. I'd be interested in giving the number some context before declaring anything "incredible."

Also, you really need to ease up on the Sean Jones hype train. Expecting any freshman - much less a borderline top 100 kid - to come in and immediately be your primary point guard is a big ask. Let the kid come in and find his way before heaping unrealistic expectations upon him.

Agree with all this. Maybe Kolek was one of the best catch-and-shoot guys in the world last season. Like you, I'd like to see the sample size.

I'm hoping for great things from Sean Jones because I'm a Marquette fan, but knowing how freshmen get hyped, and knowing how long it takes most to acclimate, I keep my expectations tempered.

And sure, using Kolek off the ball some could be an option. I've long been a fan of the multiple-PG offense. That's all up for Shaka to decide after he has his full roster and puts 'em through the paces.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

During those 13 games, Kolek had 5 mostly forgettable shooting games, followed by a 3-game stretch in which he went 7/14 (.500) from 3, followed by 5 more less-than-wonderful shooting games. In the 10 games that sammiched the 3 good ones, he shot .306.

We all can try to find stats to make things look better, but Tyler really didn't shoot well - period. And by the last month-plus, opponents starting taking advantage of his limitations.

As a team, our problems were made worse by the fact that Greg stopped hitting 3s and Kam also struggled some. After shooting 41% from 3 and 49% overall during the 8-1 stretch that put us in the conversation for a protected seed, we shot 32%/44% from Feb. 8 on. And that was on top of our defensive and rebounding woes.

So in a 13 game stretch at the end of the season, Kolek shot 30.6% after you take out his three best games? And his season average was 28.6%? Sounds like JFP was correct that Kolek had has best shooting at the end of the season!

[MU82]

So in a 13 game stretch at the end of the season, Kolek shot 30.6% after you take out his three best games? And his season average was 28.6%? Sounds like JFP was correct that Kolek had has best shooting at the end of the season!

Fair enough.

I think we're all working a little too hard trying to find numbers to defend our narratives. Overall, Tyler Kolek did not shoot the ball well enough IMHO. Others are free to disagree.

I like to think Tyler will use this offseason to improve his scoring game -- needs to go right more, needs to develop a float game, needs a stop-and-pop from 10-15 feet. And yes, needs to shoot 3s better. All those "needs" are if he's to be a truly impactful PG over the course of a long Big East season.

We need an upgrade at every position, including PG. If Tyler himself is the one who provides that upgrade, that would be A-OK with me.

[Pakuni]

So in a 13 game stretch at the end of the season, Kolek shot 30.6% after you take out his three best games? And his season average was 28.6%? Sounds like JFP was correct that Kolek had has best shooting at the end of the season!

Why 13 games?
It's not a round (or round-ish) number, like last 10 or 15 games. It's not a half-season mark (that would be 16), or quarter-season (8), or even third-season mark (11).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Fair enough.

I think we're all working a little too hard trying to find numbers to defend our narratives. Overall, Tyler Kolek did not shoot the ball well enough IMHO. Others are free to disagree.

I like to think Tyler will use this offseason to improve his scoring game -- needs to go right more, needs to develop a float game, needs a stop-and-pop from 10-15 feet. And yes, needs to shoot 3s better. All those "needs" are if he's to be a truly impactful PG over the course of a long Big East season.

We need an upgrade at every position, including PG. If Tyler himself is the one who provides that upgrade, that would be A-OK with me.

I'm not trying to say anything other than Kolek shot better at the end of the season than he did at the beginning. Which was not a high bar.

Why 13 games?
It's not a round (or round-ish) number, like last 10 or 15 games. It's not a half-season mark (that would be 16), or quarter-season (8), or even third-season mark (11).

Okay.

Season Average: 28.1%
First 16 games: 23.2%
Last 16 games: 33.9%
Last 15 games: 33.9%
Last 11 games: 35.9%
Last 10 games: 35.0%
Last 8 games: 36.7%

No matter which of the numbers you use, Kolek was shooting better from 3 at the end of the season than he was at the beginning, which like I told 82 was not a high bar. That is the only point being made.

[brewcity77]

Fair enough.

I think we're all working a little too hard trying to find numbers to defend our narratives. Overall, Tyler Kolek did not shoot the ball well enough IMHO. Others are free to disagree.

I like to think Tyler will use this offseason to improve his scoring game -- needs to go right more, needs to develop a float game, needs a stop-and-pop from 10-15 feet. And yes, needs to shoot 3s better. All those "needs" are if he's to be a truly impactful PG over the course of a long Big East season.

We need an upgrade at every position, including PG. If Tyler himself is the one who provides that upgrade, that would be A-OK with me.

I asked Andrei at Paint Touches for the actual number breakdown in conference play. Here it is:

Catch and Shoot: 18/35 (51.4%)
Off the Dribble: 5/34 (14.7%)

It's not a small sample size, both figures are almost exactly half his conference three-point attempts. When he was set and the shot was created for him, Tyler was burn the building down hot. He was unquestionably elite. Damn near Markus in 2017 elite.

The problem was he was so bad off the dribble, and because those are ball-dominant possessions, they stand out more in the mind (player has the ball in his hand throughout the play rather than just from catch to release). They're also the possessions where you see the action as it builds, so you get that "no, no, no, dammit no!" mental buildup going on.

I think this is part of why people are so optimistic about Jones. Having another point guard that can share those duties and allow Kolek to do more catch and shoot and less pull up and wing it should make TK more efficient. Because the key to unlocking his game is about creating the right shots for him. He's already demonstrated ad nauseum that he can succeed when we do that.

[DoctorV]

Andrei should've sent those numbers to Shaka before the conference tournament, so that he could take Tyler off the ball and have him running off screens spotting off for 3 more often.

Running the point wasn't really working for him down the stretch.

[The Sultan]

Andrei should've sent those numbers to Shaka before the conference tournament, so that he could take Tyler off the ball and have him running off screens spotting off for 3 more often.

Running the point wasn't really working for him down the stretch.

The other options weren't great either. 

[brewcity77]

The other options weren't great either.

Yup. Stevie was good defensively, but not great offensively in terms of creating for himself or others. Morsell and Kam clearly weren't natural at the position. Honestly, the only thing they really could've done was finding a way to keep DJ Carton around. By the time we got to the Big East Tourney, our PG options were pretty set.

[tower912]

Stevie started stepping up too late in the year to significantly change the calculus.   

Kolek won A-10 freshman of the year playing off the ball, catching and shooting or going to the basket against a moving, recovering defense.   He let the Big East in assists in his first year playing the point in D1.

How about we give the man a chance to continue to improve?

[The Sultan]

Yup. Stevie was good defensively, but not great offensively in terms of creating for himself or others. Morsell and Kam clearly weren't natural at the position. Honestly, the only thing they really could've done was finding a way to keep DJ Carton around. By the time we got to the Big East Tourney, our PG options were pretty set.

I think that was the plan right?  Carton left two weeks after Kolek committed.  Carton was a legit PG who could finish at the rim and IMO would have added a lot on the floor. (Not sure about in the locker room though.) 

I do believe that we could still have had Morsell since he was in his fifth year and the rosters temporarily expanded right?

[Its DJOver]

Bigger question is what we do in two years time, because after reading this thread, it seems certain that Jones will be a 1-and-done lottery pick after breaking Tony Miller's all-time assist record and Jerel's all-time steal record with three games to spare.