One Month In: Updated Player Thoughts

[Jay Bee]

It's been one month since opening night. Just looked back at my November post on players and update. Old post is underlined.

I'm not sure how we can exceed my expectations and make it to the NCAA tourney, but I'll hold out hope. Random thoughts on players... but first... I love attempting open threes. I just don't think we can be a great three-point shooting team. However, if we're decent to flirting with good...  34.x%-36%.. great.

3FGA/FGA of 44.8% this year ranks us #48 in the nation – we're taking a lot of threes. Fine. However, we're only shooting 32.4% -- this is in line with my expectations. Just not going to be a great three-point shooting team. That said, Tyler should be better the rest of the year (YTD 10/46 for 21.7%) and hopefully we'll have Greg sprinkling in a few more shots on average than he has season to date, which should help (5/12 41.7%). So, I guess there's still hope we can climb to around 34%, but we're just not a team who is going to blister the nets from deep... however, when you're attempting a lot of threes, you're going to have some games where it helps you have a chance to steal a win.

Morsell – Love him on the team.. and the d (no new Hampshire). I think he can be a decent offensive guy... output will be high, but from an efficiency standpoint.. hope it can turn out nice.. 108-110... but, there's a chance he forces a lot and we're talking 99-102, which I don't love. If he catches fire offensively, great.. just don't want to tooooo much forcing.. then again, who else provides offense?

Welp, here we are. Things started off great – efficiency was crazy and life was great. Then reality hit. After last night's 31% usage game paired with a 52 ORtg, Morsell now sits at a 102.5 ORtg and 24.7% usage for the season – not surprising. As for the 'who else provides offense'... the emergence of Kam helps, and hopefully Greg can find some hot streaks although he's not going to be a high usage guy.

Kam Jones – Will gun.. really like the prospects for the future, but year 1... I see volatility city. He may put up 24 and we'll have people saying he needs to be the focus of our offense every night.. then the next game he'll go 3-14 and people will complain he shoots too much. A really good season from him boosts our outlook, but tough to count on a lot of consistency.

Bingo. Follows up a 2/9 (1/5 3FG) 5-point performance at Wisconsin with a 5/9 (4/8 3FG) 15-point contribution at K-State. Pours in 18 points vs. Ole Miss and 12 vs. WVa, only to follow those outings up with a 1/7 (1/6 3FG) 4-point showing vs. the Bonnies. He's good enough to help us to some wins this season – I just don't know what we're going to see on a night vs. night basis. Some will surely be good. Some outings will not.

Justin – Has to lead with Morsell... I'm worried about the ORtg... how high is reasonable to expect/want? I don't think it's high. Hope he surprises. Really like Justin... feel like he's a year away from a real breakout potential year... but hopefully my comment today looks like nonsense in a few weeks and certainly in March 2022

Just a man out there. So glad he stayed with us. I don't mind the higher 3FGA/FGA from him this season (39.5% this year vs. 21.2% last season), but not a believer he'll be a great outside shooter this year (15/47 for 31.9% year-to-date)... those mid-range splashes sure are pretty though! His ORtg sits in the Morsell range... 102.6. Not very good, but I think he can elevate it a bit this year. Would love to see something closer to 108 while maintaining his usage (23.6%... can push this up to 25-26% I think) and %Shots (26.8%).

The offensive rebounds have disappeared. We know he can board better. He had multiple offensive rebounds in 66.7% of the games he played last year and a very strong 11.7% OR%. This year he hasn't had a single game in which he got more than 1 o-board, and his paltry 2.9% OR% makes 6'2" Stevie Mitchell (3.1%) laugh.

Kur – Didn't play a lot in game 1. I really like him. Offensively I think he'll have some days where he puts up 14 and we want more. The next night, 4 and fairly invisible. The shot blocking is lovely. Would like to see his rebounding %'s higher this year than in the past.

Offensively, has been fairly consistent from an point-output perspective. Has scored between 6 and 9 in 80% of games played. Hard to complain about a 73.7% FG% (also eFG% because he doesn't shoot treys). Yeah, the FT% is 46.7%, but #FTsNoMatta. Block percentage of 14.2% is off the charts and I do wish we had seen more of him vs. Becky in the second half. Not going to score tons of points, but just needs to continue to finish at a high clip, block and alter shots, and rebound. His defensive rebounding % of 17.1% is the best of his career (former best was last year at 15.1%) – good job!

Omax – I see the tools and skillset. Will have some nice highlight clips, Not quite ready though. Hope he provides solid minutes. Upside in the future; not banking on it for this year.

No big revelations here. I do like the 16.5% DR% and 2.4% Stl%. His length and athleticism is helpful to have. Has been quite efficient on offense over the past few games, after minutes played dropped and he came off the bench. I liked that move. He has a role on this team.

Kolek – Way better than I was thinking, but the worry is how will he perform vs. high majors? Love what I've seen passing, grit, etc. Don't see him as a great shooter, but good. Important piece

Staying with my thoughts on him. The shooting will get better, but still don't see him as having great shooting potential. Needs to be at least 'solid' though, which he has not been. The passing (for the most part) has been fun and the kid grabbed 8 boards (2 OR) last night despite a dreadful night shooting. I did like one miss when he hauled a$$ back to stop a transition opportunity. Kid works. Get some shots to fall, chill on some of the turnovers, and we're all good here.

Ellis – May have a few highlights this year, but probably just a year to log minutes when he can and progress. Future is intriguing, but can't count on much this season.

No change. I get nervous when he puts up a shot, but he's now 3/5 from deep (and 1/3 from 2, for an eFG% of 68.8%!) so maybe I should chill. But, I do recall him being out there against Bucky and me being agitated by it. Let him get some run if we're in a great spot in games... but, it feels like he's not quite ready for primetime.

Greg – Between injuries and now suspensions.. hope he can get on the floor regularly and do work. Have always loved his spirit, and he's been an efficient guy. Could usage get up to 18% with an ORtg of 110+? Sure. That would help a lot

Limited minutes so far... 95.8 ORtg and 18.4% usage. So, the usage is up (20.9% %Shots), but the ORtg isn't so pleasing just yet. 0 ORebs on the year and just 2/7 for 28.6% on 2FGs. Nonetheless, him being on the court makes me smile. The ORtg will improve.

Joplin – Give us some minutes, knock down some shots, progress

Games like Jax St. and uw-madison are great on offense – come in for low double-digit minutes, knock down a couple of triples... if he can grab a couple of rebounds and play solid defense, and continue his progression, all good.

Oso – Like game 1, but just hoping for continued progression and solid minutes off the bench.

Very pleased here. Obviously very low participation on offense (11.8% usage, 11.5% %Shots), but 75.9% eFG% (all 2's), combined with good rebounding and Blk %'s.. I like it. Has not turned the ball over more than once in a game all year (although the 18.2% turnover rate isn't spectacular). Providing good minutes and has been better than I expected.

Stevie – Biggest variable for me. Poise and well rounded skillset are great. Can he step up and become a huge piece of the rotation? Yep. Will he? Dunno, but I think his upside this season is more recognizable than any others. May need to take on bigger offensive role than he 'wants to' as a frosh. Thought he turned down a good shot or two in game 1. He's very good and capable of making a Marq this season. Could help push us to be better than expected.

Has continued to turn down some shots. A couple of very good games and helped us quite a bit vs. Northern Illinois. I still like his presence on the floor *most of the time. Boost the shooting %'s a bit, knock down the TO rate (23.4%) a bit, and I'm good. Not sure what the staff has on their mind re: Stevie. True freshman.

Overall – I'll take 8-2 no problem. I've been fortunate to have seen 5 games in 3 different cities so far this year and enjoy this team immensely. Just keep winning some ugly games. They're good enough to keep things close... if a few shots fall, that'll be the difference and we can keep claiming victories. Last night we didn't win any of the lesser of the four factors... but eFG% reigns supreme and 50.0% vs. 43.8% is usually enough to get it done, and it was last night. Loved the 7 blocked shots (3 guys with 2, 1 with 1). #PrayOnSaturday

[DoctorV]

Excellent, great work and thanks for sharing.

Look forward to the two month report!

[Viper]

Johnny Davis loved Morsell's D too.

[Shooter McGavin]

Johnny Davis loved Morsell's D too.

Johnny Davis is a special player and will eat a lot of defenders alive. 

Jay Bee,  thanks for the post.   Always appreciate your thoughts. 

[Herman Cain]

It's been one month since opening night. Just looked back at my November post on players and update. Old post is underlined.

I'm not sure how we can exceed my expectations and make it to the NCAA tourney, but I'll hold out hope. Random thoughts on players... but first... I love attempting open threes. I just don't think we can be a great three-point shooting team. However, if we're decent to flirting with good...  34.x%-36%.. great.

3FGA/FGA of 44.8% this year ranks us #48 in the nation – we're taking a lot of threes. Fine. However, we're only shooting 32.4% -- this is in line with my expectations. Just not going to be a great three-point shooting team. That said, Tyler should be better the rest of the year (YTD 10/46 for 21.7%) and hopefully we'll have Greg sprinkling in a few more shots on average than he has season to date, which should help (5/12 41.7%). So, I guess there's still hope we can climb to around 34%, but we're just not a team who is going to blister the nets from deep... however, when you're attempting a lot of threes, you're going to have some games where it helps you have a chance to steal a win.

Morsell – Love him on the team.. and the d (no new Hampshire). I think he can be a decent offensive guy... output will be high, but from an efficiency standpoint.. hope it can turn out nice.. 108-110... but, there's a chance he forces a lot and we're talking 99-102, which I don't love. If he catches fire offensively, great.. just don't want to tooooo much forcing.. then again, who else provides offense?

Welp, here we are. Things started off great – efficiency was crazy and life was great. Then reality hit. After last night's 31% usage game paired with a 52 ORtg, Morsell now sits at a 102.5 ORtg and 24.7% usage for the season – not surprising. As for the 'who else provides offense'... the emergence of Kam helps, and hopefully Greg can find some hot streaks although he's not going to be a high usage guy.

Kam Jones – Will gun.. really like the prospects for the future, but year 1... I see volatility city. He may put up 24 and we'll have people saying he needs to be the focus of our offense every night.. then the next game he'll go 3-14 and people will complain he shoots too much. A really good season from him boosts our outlook, but tough to count on a lot of consistency.

Bingo. Follows up a 2/9 (1/5 3FG) 5-point performance at Wisconsin with a 5/9 (4/8 3FG) 15-point contribution at K-State. Pours in 18 points vs. Ole Miss and 12 vs. WVa, only to follow those outings up with a 1/7 (1/6 3FG) 4-point showing vs. the Bonnies. He's good enough to help us to some wins this season – I just don't know what we're going to see on a night vs. night basis. Some will surely be good. Some outings will not.

Justin – Has to lead with Morsell... I'm worried about the ORtg... how high is reasonable to expect/want? I don't think it's high. Hope he surprises. Really like Justin... feel like he's a year away from a real breakout potential year... but hopefully my comment today looks like nonsense in a few weeks and certainly in March 2022

Just a man out there. So glad he stayed with us. I don't mind the higher 3FGA/FGA from him this season (39.5% this year vs. 21.2% last season), but not a believer he'll be a great outside shooter this year (15/47 for 31.9% year-to-date)... those mid-range splashes sure are pretty though! His ORtg sits in the Morsell range... 102.6. Not very good, but I think he can elevate it a bit this year. Would love to see something closer to 108 while maintaining his usage (23.6%... can push this up to 25-26% I think) and %Shots (26.8%).

The offensive rebounds have disappeared. We know he can board better. He had multiple offensive rebounds in 66.7% of the games he played last year and a very strong 11.7% OR%. This year he hasn't had a single game in which he got more than 1 o-board, and his paltry 2.9% OR% makes 6'2" Stevie Mitchell (3.1%) laugh.

Kur – Didn't play a lot in game 1. I really like him. Offensively I think he'll have some days where he puts up 14 and we want more. The next night, 4 and fairly invisible. The shot blocking is lovely. Would like to see his rebounding %'s higher this year than in the past.

Offensively, has been fairly consistent from an point-output perspective. Has scored between 6 and 9 in 80% of games played. Hard to complain about a 73.7% FG% (also eFG% because he doesn't shoot treys). Yeah, the FT% is 46.7%, but #FTsNoMatta. Block percentage of 14.2% is off the charts and I do wish we had seen more of him vs. Becky in the second half. Not going to score tons of points, but just needs to continue to finish at a high clip, block and alter shots, and rebound. His defensive rebounding % of 17.1% is the best of his career (former best was last year at 15.1%) – good job!

Omax – I see the tools and skillset. Will have some nice highlight clips, Not quite ready though. Hope he provides solid minutes. Upside in the future; not banking on it for this year.

No big revelations here. I do like the 16.5% DR% and 2.4% Stl%. His length and athleticism is helpful to have. Has been quite efficient on offense over the past few games, after minutes played dropped and he came off the bench. I liked that move. He has a role on this team.

Kolek – Way better than I was thinking, but the worry is how will he perform vs. high majors? Love what I've seen passing, grit, etc. Don't see him as a great shooter, but good. Important piece

Staying with my thoughts on him. The shooting will get better, but still don't see him as having great shooting potential. Needs to be at least 'solid' though, which he has not been. The passing (for the most part) has been fun and the kid grabbed 8 boards (2 OR) last night despite a dreadful night shooting. I did like one miss when he hauled a$$ back to stop a transition opportunity. Kid works. Get some shots to fall, chill on some of the turnovers, and we're all good here.

Ellis – May have a few highlights this year, but probably just a year to log minutes when he can and progress. Future is intriguing, but can't count on much this season.

No change. I get nervous when he puts up a shot, but he's now 3/5 from deep (and 1/3 from 2, for an eFG% of 68.8%!) so maybe I should chill. But, I do recall him being out there against Bucky and me being agitated by it. Let him get some run if we're in a great spot in games... but, it feels like he's not quite ready for primetime.

Greg – Between injuries and now suspensions.. hope he can get on the floor regularly and do work. Have always loved his spirit, and he's been an efficient guy. Could usage get up to 18% with an ORtg of 110+? Sure. That would help a lot

Limited minutes so far... 95.8 ORtg and 18.4% usage. So, the usage is up (20.9% %Shots), but the ORtg isn't so pleasing just yet. 0 ORebs on the year and just 2/7 for 28.6% on 2FGs. Nonetheless, him being on the court makes me smile. The ORtg will improve.

Joplin – Give us some minutes, knock down some shots, progress

Games like Jax St. and uw-madison are great on offense – come in for low double-digit minutes, knock down a couple of triples... if he can grab a couple of rebounds and play solid defense, and continue his progression, all good.

Oso – Like game 1, but just hoping for continued progression and solid minutes off the bench.

Very pleased here. Obviously very low participation on offense (11.8% usage, 11.5% %Shots), but 75.9% eFG% (all 2's), combined with good rebounding and Blk %'s.. I like it. Has not turned the ball over more than once in a game all year (although the 18.2% turnover rate isn't spectacular). Providing good minutes and has been better than I expected.

Stevie – Biggest variable for me. Poise and well rounded skillset are great. Can he step up and become a huge piece of the rotation? Yep. Will he? Dunno, but I think his upside this season is more recognizable than any others. May need to take on bigger offensive role than he 'wants to' as a frosh. Thought he turned down a good shot or two in game 1. He's very good and capable of making a Marq this season. Could help push us to be better than expected.

Has continued to turn down some shots. A couple of very good games and helped us quite a bit vs. Northern Illinois. I still like his presence on the floor *most of the time. Boost the shooting %'s a bit, knock down the TO rate (23.4%) a bit, and I'm good. Not sure what the staff has on their mind re: Stevie. True freshman.

Overall – I'll take 8-2 no problem. I've been fortunate to have seen 5 games in 3 different cities so far this year and enjoy this team immensely. Just keep winning some ugly games. They're good enough to keep things close... if a few shots fall, that'll be the difference and we can keep claiming victories. Last night we didn't win any of the lesser of the four factors... but eFG% reigns supreme and 50.0% vs. 43.8% is usually enough to get it done, and it was last night. Loved the 7 blocked shots (3 guys with 2, 1 with 1). #PrayOnSaturday

I agree with this analysis

[MUUWUWM]

Herman, I agree with your analysis of the analysis!

[The Lens]

What's crazy and pretty cool is that no one is blowing away your expectations and yet here we are 8-2.

If Morsell stayed hit or Tyler could shoot I could see this start but it's been collective.  And if everyone gets just a little bit better we're going to be a lot better.

This is fun.

[avid1010]

Just keep winning some ugly games. They're good enough to keep things close... if a few shots fall, that'll be the difference and we can keep claiming victories.

Agreed.  Watching Seton Hall take down Texas at the moment...BEAST play is going to be a fight from top to bottom...hope they are ready to get lost in it.

[MU82]

Good post, JB.

I have no stats to support this, just seems this way ...

One possible reason Lewis has not had many offensive boards this season is because he is outside the 3-point line a lot. Shot goes up, from him or someone else, and he has to haul butt back on D.

[Shooter McGavin]

What's crazy and pretty cool is that no one is blowing away your expectations and yet here we are 8-2.

If Morsell stayed hit or Tyler could shoot I could see this start but it's been collective.  And if everyone gets just a little bit better we're going to be a lot better.

This is fun.

Agreed.  Morsell and Kolek play up to their capability we can be really good.

[mug644]

Good post, JB.

I have no stats to support this, just seems this way ...

One possible reason Lewis has not had many offensive boards this season is because he is outside the 3-point line a lot. Shot goes up, from him or someone else, and he has to haul butt back on D.

A similar observation (and similarly unsupported by data), is that players, when a shot goes up, begin thinking about their defensive positioning. If the shot goes in, they need to get to their spot for the pressure defense on the inbounds.

Shaka's system gives the guys much to think about, anticipate and do. And maybe that, until they are more experienced and 'locked in' can sometimes be too much to think about and do.

[Dr. Blackheart]

We are who JayBee thought we were.

[Newsdreams]

We are who JayBee thought we were.

Brother JB matta, hey

[Stretchdeltsig]

Talking about the Hausers, wonder if Joey is happy averaging 6 points per game for Michigan State? He would probably score triple that at Marquette.

[tower912]

Not quick enough for Shaka's system.

[DoctorV]

Not quick enough for Shaka's system.

Agreed, I think he would struggle with Shaka. I worry about Omax lack of speed in the system, and I think joey is slower albeit a better overall player.

Guys like Jamal or Carton are better suited for Shakas style.

How's that super tall highly ranked frosh center doing, the guy that de-committed after Wojo got canned?

[PGsHeroes32]

Agreed, I think he would struggle with Shaka. I worry about Omax lack of speed in the system, and I think joey is slower albeit a better overall player.

Guys like Jamal or Carton are better suited for Shakas style.

How's that super tall highly ranked frosh center doing, the guy that de-committed after Wojo got canned?

Aidoo hasn't played in December. He's played in 4 games for 10 minutes all year

[Tha Hound]

Agreed, I think he would struggle with Shaka. I worry about Omax lack of speed in the system, and I think joey is slower albeit a better overall player.

Guys like Jamal or Carton are better suited for Shakas style.

How's that super tall highly ranked frosh center doing, the guy that de-committed after Wojo got canned?

You're thinking of Jonás Aidoo. He had mono for a while. He's played 4 games, averaging 2 minutes.

[Uncle Rico]

The only system Joey is suited for is the one you see dudes playing at the Y

[wadesworld]

My player thoughts: we need a significant upgrade in talent. The only players that are Big East starting caliber are Lewis and Morsell. And Morsell is more of a glue guy starter, Lewis more of a guy still being molded into the alpha roll.

Maybe the freshman class improves more than I think we'll need to be real BE contenders, but there isn't enough talent on the roster as it stands.

[mug644]

My player thoughts: we need a significant upgrade in talent. Then only players that are Big East starting caliber are Lewis and Morsell. And Morsell is more of a glue guy starter, Lewis more of a guy still being molded into the alpha roll.

Maybe the freshman class improves more than I think we'll need to be real BE contenders, but there isn't enough talent on the roster as it stands.

Spot on. And I think that's Shaka's plan. Recruit talent. Foster talent. Perform.

Everyone knows that this year is not the results year. This is the year to put that process and culture into place. 

[wadesworld]

I miss the cancer.

[nyg]

I miss the cancer.

Don't like the name you and people use for him, especially after losing relatives to the disease.  Been asked before, but no one cares. 

That said, Markus played 20 minutes tonight and had 21 points, so good for him. 

[wildbillsb]

Me neither.  Two personal.  Too painful.

[Shooter McGavin]

My player thoughts: we need a significant upgrade in talent. The only players that are Big East starting caliber are Lewis and Morsell. And Morsell is more of a glue guy starter, Lewis more of a guy still being molded into the alpha roll.

Maybe the freshman class improves more than I think we'll need to be real BE contenders, but there isn't enough talent on the roster as it stands.

Agreed.  But there is enough talent to work with to make games interesting and establish Shaka's style of play.  This year can still be fun.  I'm looking forward to the development of the current players with an obvious eye toward future talent acquisitions.