Lunardi says we are gonna dance!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yeah we are

[CrowdOf5]

Don't we now have tied for the most Q1 wins in the country?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Don't we now have tied for the most Q1 wins in the country?

Almost, tied for second with Bucky. Baylor alone in first with 6. Providence is close to a Q1 win though, 2 spots shy

[PGsHeroes32]

Updated to a 7 seed now

[TallTitan34]

Question for brew.  Why is Iowa considered a firm in with the resume they have?  In most brackets they are right around us and frequently ahead. 

[shoothoops]

Bracketville has Marquette as a 5 seed this morning.

[Galway Eagle]

Bracketville has Marquette as a 5 seed this morning.

Great we can play this years version of Ja Morant!

[JakeBarnes]

The Athletic has Marquette as a 7 seed as of today.

[VanderBlueFanClub]

This might sound crazy but, I think that being a 4,5,12,13 seed would be our best route to the Sweet 16 and then possibly the Elite 8.

[The Lens]

Lunardi has us playing Porter Moser round one, wow the irony --> then Duke, wow the irony II --> then Kentucky who we absolutely own in the tourney --> now we're in the E8 against Arizona. 

I'll take it.

[1SE]

This might sound crazy but, I think that being a 4,5,12,13 seed would be our best route to the Sweet 16 and then possibly the Elite 8.

Yes - much better to be an 11 or 12 than and 8 or 9 if we want to make the S16 and about the same being an 11 or 7 as a 7. But the big jump is if we can get to the 6 line.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Question for brew.  Why is Iowa considered a firm in with the resume they have?  In most brackets they are right around us and frequently ahead.

Likely because their NET is in the low 20s. The reason their NET is in the low 20s is because they have 9 wins of 17 or more points. They annihilated their 8 non-conference cupcakes (4 of which are sub-300 in NET) and blew out a solid Utah State team on a neutral court.

If I was on the committee, I would have some questions about their 0-4 record in Q1 games...not to mention their loss to a Rutgers team ranked outside the top 100 where they only scored 46 points.

EDIT: Fun numbers:

Iowa's average margin of victory against non-high majors: 29 (across 9 games)

Iowa's average margin of victory against high majors: -1.89 (across 9 games)

[lawdog77]

Likely because their NET is in the low 20s. The reason their NET is in the low 20s is because they have 9 wins of 17 or more points. They annihilated their 8 non-conference cupcakes (4 of which are sub-300 in NET) and blew out a solid Utah State team on a neutral court.

If I was on the committee, I would have some questions about their 0-4 record in Q1 games...not to mention their loss to a Rutgers team ranked outside the top 100 where they only scored 46 points.

EDIT: Fun numbers:

Iowa's average margin of victory against non-high majors: 29 (across 9 games)

Iowa's average margin of victory against high majors: -1.89 (across 9 games)

Does that mean teams should schedule cupcakes instead of middle of the road teams?

[withoutbias]

Likely because their NET is in the low 20s. The reason their NET is in the low 20s is because they have 9 wins of 17 or more points. They annihilated their 8 non-conference cupcakes (4 of which are sub-300 in NET) and blew out a solid Utah State team on a neutral court.

If I was on the committee, I would have some questions about their 0-4 record in Q1 games...not to mention their loss to a Rutgers team ranked outside the top 100 where they only scored 46 points.

EDIT: Fun numbers:

Iowa's average margin of victory against non-high majors: 29 (across 9 games)

Iowa's average margin of victory against high majors: -1.89 (across 9 games)

I think the wording would be average scoring margin.  You can't win by a negative amount.  I'm assuming the high major number includes their losses.

[CountryRoads]

Texas is another school that highlights the downsides of NET. They pounded their Q4 teams (9-0), but haven't done a whole lot else.

Comparing them to MU:

Mutual wins against Kansas State and West Virginia.

Texas other good wins:
Oklahoma
@Stanford

MU other good wins:
@nova
Seton hall
Providence
Illinois
Ole Miss

Texas = 18 NET
MU = 33 NET

There's a lot of value in beating bad teams by a lot, something MU failed to do. The NET needs to continue to work to limit that factor since it is not good for the game. It's so important to getting a bid. Teams need to run up the score whenever they can.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the wording would be average scoring margin.  You can't win by a negative amount.  I'm assuming the high major number includes their losses.

Scoring margin would have been more correct to say.

[brewcity77]

Question for brew.  Why is Iowa considered a firm in with the resume they have?  In most brackets they are right around us and frequently ahead.

It's definitely their metrics. I had a lot of trouble seeding them because when you look at wins of substance, there's not much there. I suspect that's why I differ from the bracketmatrix consensus, which has them at a seven while I had them a 9.

When I'm making my S-Curve, I usually list teams by NET ranking and then batch resumes that are similar. If you're a top-25 NET team, you'll almost certainly get in, especially from a high-major league. But if they end up 9-11 in conference with no wins bigger than Indiana, don't be surprised to see them get left out.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Does that mean teams should schedule cupcakes instead of middle of the road teams?

Not necessarily. Scheduling a sub-300 cupcake is only a benefit to you if you can blow them out by 25+ (which Iowa did). If you schedule a middle of the road team (say 150-200), you only need to blow them out by 15+ to be a benefit...and if you blow them out by 25+ it's even more valuable than blowing out a cupcake by the same amount. But it is usually easier to run up the score on cupcakes than it is on solid mid-majors so there probably is some wisdom in scheduling more of them.

It is a flaw in the NET that I hope they address in the future. You should get credit for blowing out cupcakes, but not as much credit as NET seems to give.

Also, I have been talking about scoring margin, but technically I should be talking about efficiency margin. NET caps the value of scoring margin at 10 so winning by more than 10 doesn't help in that sense. But there is no cap on efficiency in NET so running up the score still helps. Generally, the larger the scoring margin, the larger the efficiency margin but it's not a 1 to 1 comparison. If one team blows out another by 20 in a 80 possession game, that is less efficient than a team that wins by 16 in a 60 possession game

[brewcity77]

But there is no cap on efficiency in NET so running up the score still helps. Generally, the larger the scoring margin, the larger the efficiency margin but it's not a 1 to 1 comparison. If one team blows out another by 20 in a 80 possession game, that is less efficient than a team that wins by 16 in a 60 possession game

I think that's the trickiest part to a regressive efficiency model. It's pretty easy when you're diminishing the value of points, but it's harder to devalue possessions in a 40 point game vs a 30 point game while having to factor in close margins at full value.

But that's why the NCAA should be employing mathematicians to answer exactly that.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Updated to a 7 seed now

Yes Lunardi has us as the 3rd 7 Seed and #27 on the overall seed line. Behind # 25 Seton Hall #26 Texas and Ahead of #28 Iowa

[MarquetteMike1977]

CBS Sports Jerry Palm has Marquette as a 6 seed today.

[brewcity77]

CBS Sports Jerry Palm has Marquette as a 6 seed today.

Also has Providence as a 2, which is almost as crazy as the guy that has Oregon State in as an at-large.

[panda]

Also has Providence as a 2, which is almost as crazy as the guy that has Oregon State in as an at-large.

Jerry Palm - Subpar bracketologist.

[Uncle Rico]

Jerry Palm - Subpar bracketologist.

He's quite bad and should be ignored

[lawdog77]

He's quite bad and should be ignored

That's the chicos bat signal