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Author Topic: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!  (Read 48532 times)

Uncle Rico

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #100 on: January 21, 2022, 03:33:29 PM »
That's the chicos bat signal

Is he a Palm defender?
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MU82

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #101 on: January 21, 2022, 04:19:02 PM »
It's absolutely wonderful to promote great sportsmanship by incentivizing superior teams to beat overmatched opponents by 35 instead of "only" 20.

It's also great to incentivize the winners to keep their starters and top subs in, and risk injury to them, just to run up the score. (Or to try to make the score closer at the end, if you're the team that's losing.)

Brilliant thinking, whoever came up with that part of the NET formula. Bravo!

Remember how upset Shaka was when Schmidt called time-out with 2 minutes to go and his Bonnies leading by 25? Schmidt put in his scrubs but Shaka left Lewis in the game. Justin led us on 9-0 run to end the game, and we only lost by 16.

Rather than being upset, Shaka should have been hugging Schmidt for doing us such a huge favor.

Of course, had JL gotten hurt, it would have effectively ended our season. But he didn't, so it's all good!
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #102 on: January 21, 2022, 04:22:15 PM »
It's absolutely wonderful to promote great sportsmanship by incentivizing superior teams to beat overmatched opponents by 35 instead of "only" 20.

It's also great to incentivize the winners to keep their starters and top subs in, and risk injury to them, just to run up the score. (Or to try to make the score closer at the end, if you're the team that's losing.)

Brilliant thinking, whoever came up with that part of the NET formula. Bravo!

Remember how upset Shaka was when Schmidt called time-out with 2 minutes to go and his Bonnies leading by 25? Schmidt put in his scrubs but Shaka left Lewis in the game. Justin led us on 9-0 run to end the game, and we only lost by 16.

Rather than being upset, Shaka should have been hugging Schmidt for doing us such a huge favor.

Of course, had JL gotten hurt, it would have effectively ended our season. But he didn't, so it's all good!

Cause and effect? Shaka wasn't sending a message to Schmidt as much as he was sending one to his team.

MU82

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #103 on: January 21, 2022, 04:24:12 PM »
Cause and effect? Shaka wasn't sending a message to Schmidt as much as he was sending one to his team.

I didn't say he was sending a message to anybody.

Sorry, but giving a team more NET "points" for winning by 30 instead of 20 is stoopid.
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jficke13

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #104 on: January 21, 2022, 04:27:28 PM »
It's absolutely wonderful to promote great sportsmanship by incentivizing superior teams to beat overmatched opponents by 35 instead of "only" 20.

It's also great to incentivize the winners to keep their starters and top subs in, and risk injury to them, just to run up the score. (Or to try to make the score closer at the end, if you're the team that's losing.)

Brilliant thinking, whoever came up with that part of the NET formula. Bravo!

Remember how upset Shaka was when Schmidt called time-out with 2 minutes to go and his Bonnies leading by 25? Schmidt put in his scrubs but Shaka left Lewis in the game. Justin led us on 9-0 run to end the game, and we only lost by 16.

Rather than being upset, Shaka should have been hugging Schmidt for doing us such a huge favor.

Of course, had JL gotten hurt, it would have effectively ended our season. But he didn't, so it's all good!

This is really the heart of it. What gets measured matters. What matters creates incentives. So long as efficiency is so heavily weighted in the metrics, teams will hunt for any edge in the formulas.

I haven't been able to articulate why it has bugged me that margin of efficiency and blowouts seem so important these days, but this is kind of it.

The thing that really bugs me is the disproportionately bad impact of a low-margin win vs a team you're favored to beat compared to a low-margin upset win over a team you're expected to lose to. It just leads to odd mathematical results where a close win vs. SIUE = bad, a huge win vs Gtown = GREAT, and a 3 point win vs Nova = like pretty okay, but can you beat Gtown by 30 again? that would be better.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #105 on: January 21, 2022, 04:37:17 PM »
I didn't say he was sending a message to anybody.

Sorry, but giving a team more NET "points" for winning by 30 instead of 20 is stoopid.

It is stoopid. Others like Haslam cut it off.

My point on Schmidt was you seemed to imply Shaka was mad at him for gaming the NET since you mentioned it. Sorry if I was wrong.

Shaka was mad as they called a running time out and they were out there celebrating. Shaka wanted to show his young team to never give up. Shaka was mad all game.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #106 on: January 21, 2022, 04:44:28 PM »
It's absolutely wonderful to promote great sportsmanship by incentivizing superior teams to beat overmatched opponents by 35 instead of "only" 20.

It's also great to incentivize the winners to keep their starters and top subs in, and risk injury to them, just to run up the score. (Or to try to make the score closer at the end, if you're the team that's losing.)

Brilliant thinking, whoever came up with that part of the NET formula. Bravo!

Remember how upset Shaka was when Schmidt called time-out with 2 minutes to go and his Bonnies leading by 25? Schmidt put in his scrubs but Shaka left Lewis in the game. Justin led us on 9-0 run to end the game, and we only lost by 16.

Rather than being upset, Shaka should have been hugging Schmidt for doing us such a huge favor.

Of course, had JL gotten hurt, it would have effectively ended our season. But he didn't, so it's all good!

I don't give crape about sportsmanship in this case. I have had the score run up on me before. I preferred that to the other team pulling their starters and playing their scrubs. That always felt like a giant middle finger to me. I recognize others see it differently.

The injury is a real concern but not a major one for me. A guy can get injured playing in the last minute of a blowout or he can get injured walking down the street. The walk ons and scrubs are also just as likely to get injured in that last minute.

Shaka was upset because Schmidt took a full time out and was yucking it up with the Bonnie fans in the crowd. It seemed like Schmidt was elongating the game so he could bask in his fans appreciation a bit longer. A short time out to get his scrubs in wouldn't have elicited the same reaction from Shaka.

I will however agree that it is a flaw in the system and it leads to inaccurate rankings....though it's still lightyears better than RPI. I also do feel for the Scrubs and walk-ons. I don't have the data to back this up, but I imagine that they are getting a lot less playing time than they used to and that is unfortunate.
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MU82

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #107 on: January 21, 2022, 05:36:18 PM »
I don't give crape about sportsmanship in this case. I have had the score run up on me before. I preferred that to the other team pulling their starters and playing their scrubs. That always felt like a giant middle finger to me. I recognize others see it differently.

The injury is a real concern but not a major one for me. A guy can get injured playing in the last minute of a blowout or he can get injured walking down the street. The walk ons and scrubs are also just as likely to get injured in that last minute.

Shaka was upset because Schmidt took a full time out and was yucking it up with the Bonnie fans in the crowd. It seemed like Schmidt was elongating the game so he could bask in his fans appreciation a bit longer. A short time out to get his scrubs in wouldn't have elicited the same reaction from Shaka.

I will however agree that it is a flaw in the system and it leads to inaccurate rankings....though it's still lightyears better than RPI. I also do feel for the Scrubs and walk-ons. I don't have the data to back this up, but I imagine that they are getting a lot less playing time than they used to and that is unfortunate.

In the grand context of what we're talking about, this last paragraph is all that matters.

Again, it is stoopid to tell a team winning by 22 that they really need to win by 32.

Also, is what jficke says about a 30-point win over a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible team being "better" in NET's world than a 3-point win at a great Nova team?
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #108 on: January 21, 2022, 08:42:04 PM »
In the grand context of what we're talking about, this last paragraph is all that matters.

Again, it is stoopid to tell a team winning by 22 that they really need to win by 32.

Also, is what jficke says about a 30-point win over a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible team being "better" in NET's world than a 3-point win at a great Nova team?

Agreed TAMU and 82 it is much better than the RPI.  Can it be better? Sure.  But it is already better than what we had.

#UnleashSean

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #109 on: January 21, 2022, 09:05:46 PM »
I don't give crape about sportsmanship in this case. I have had the score run up on me before. I preferred that to the other team pulling their starters and playing their scrubs. That always felt like a giant middle finger to me. I recognize others see it differently.

No

The injury is a real concern but not a major one for me. A guy can get injured playing in the last minute of a blowout or he can get injured walking down the street. The walk ons and scrubs are also just as likely to get injured in that last minute.

Yes


Shaka was upset because Schmidt took a full time out and was yucking it up with the Bonnie fans in the crowd. It seemed like Schmidt was elongating the game so he could bask in his fans appreciation a bit longer. A short time out to get his scrubs in wouldn't have elicited the same reaction from Shaka.

Yes. Timeout with a travel motion.


I will however agree that it is a flaw in the system and it leads to inaccurate rankings....though it's still lightyears better than RPI. I also do feel for the Scrubs and walk-ons. I don't have the data to back this up, but I imagine that they are getting a lot less playing time than they used to and that is unfortunate.

Yes

brewcity77

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #110 on: January 22, 2022, 05:33:46 AM »
People make too much out of the NET. If the NCAA simply went 1-46 to get through the at-large teams, seeded in NET order, it would be a problem. But they don't.

The NET is a sorting tool. If you're trying to figure out the top line, it's easier to look at the top 10-15 NET resumes, compare the result based metrics, the predictive metrics, and the records by quadrant, than it is to try to sort out 30-40 teams at once. NET is just allowing the Selection Committee to batch teams together better.

Would we rather have the RPI back? With Alabama at 3, Providence at 7, and Iona (15) and San Diego State (16) ahead of Baylor (17) and Purdue (18)? NET isn't perfect, but it's a much better sorting tool than what we had.

This is like Goodman's Twitter rant yesterday about how Wisconsin should be ranked higher in predictive metrics, which makes no sense because (1) they are programs that run results through formulas, (2) Pomeroy has explained exactly why some teams overperform his metric, and (3) Wisconsin was literally the example Pomeroy used in that explanation so all this shows is that his model is not program biased and MAYBE this Wisconsin team isn't as good as people think.
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cheebs09

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #111 on: January 22, 2022, 05:41:18 AM »
Is he a Palm defender?

There was a time I thought he was his publicist.

MUDPT

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #112 on: January 22, 2022, 05:50:23 AM »
People make too much out of the NET. If the NCAA simply went 1-46 to get through the at-large teams, seeded in NET order, it would be a problem. But they don't.

The NET is a sorting tool. If you're trying to figure out the top line, it's easier to look at the top 10-15 NET resumes, compare the result based metrics, the predictive metrics, and the records by quadrant, than it is to try to sort out 30-40 teams at once. NET is just allowing the Selection Committee to batch teams together better.

Would we rather have the RPI back? With Alabama at 3, Providence at 7, and Iona (15) and San Diego State (16) ahead of Baylor (17) and Purdue (18)? NET isn't perfect, but it's a much better sorting tool than what we had.

This is like Goodman's Twitter rant yesterday about how Wisconsin should be ranked higher in predictive metrics, which makes no sense because (1) they are programs that run results through formulas, (2) Pomeroy has explained exactly why some teams overperform his metric, and (3) Wisconsin was literally the example Pomeroy used in that explanation so all this shows is that his model is not program biased and MAYBE this Wisconsin team isn't as good as people think.

The Wisconsin this is hilarious. For years they were “underrated” because their Pomeroy ranking was so high. This year they are so low, I’m guessing because they are 11th ranked in the luck metric and are 5-1 in games decided by 5 points or less.

DoctorV

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #113 on: January 22, 2022, 07:45:28 AM »
I love the NET when we are in the top 40 but hate it when we are 60 or worse.

There, I said it.

TVDirector

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #114 on: January 22, 2022, 08:31:15 AM »
SI has us as a 9 seed play #8 Miami is the West region

MU82

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #115 on: January 22, 2022, 09:05:08 AM »
People make too much out of the NET. If the NCAA simply went 1-46 to get through the at-large teams, seeded in NET order, it would be a problem. But they don't.

The NET is a sorting tool. If you're trying to figure out the top line, it's easier to look at the top 10-15 NET resumes, compare the result based metrics, the predictive metrics, and the records by quadrant, than it is to try to sort out 30-40 teams at once. NET is just allowing the Selection Committee to batch teams together better.

Would we rather have the RPI back? With Alabama at 3, Providence at 7, and Iona (15) and San Diego State (16) ahead of Baylor (17) and Purdue (18)? NET isn't perfect, but it's a much better sorting tool than what we had.

This is like Goodman's Twitter rant yesterday about how Wisconsin should be ranked higher in predictive metrics, which makes no sense because (1) they are programs that run results through formulas, (2) Pomeroy has explained exactly why some teams overperform his metric, and (3) Wisconsin was literally the example Pomeroy used in that explanation so all this shows is that his model is not program biased and MAYBE this Wisconsin team isn't as good as people think.

Good explainer.

It's still stoopid to incentivize 30-point vs 20-point wins.
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #116 on: January 22, 2022, 09:16:54 AM »
SI has us as a 9 seed play #8 Miami is the West region

I'd love to play them.

Would be great to play 38 year old Charlie Moore again as well. Whom I thought was finally gone for good until a couple weeks ago.
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panda

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #117 on: January 22, 2022, 09:30:36 AM »
I'd love to play them.

Would be great to play 38 year old Charlie Moore again as well. Whom I thought was finally gone for good until a couple weeks ago.

And playing the best basketball of his extremely long caereer.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #118 on: January 22, 2022, 09:48:57 AM »
Good explainer.

It's still stoopid to incentivize 30-point vs 20-point wins.

And it's an easy mathematical tweak to turn it off.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #119 on: January 22, 2022, 10:31:50 AM »

Would we rather have the RPI back? With Alabama at 3, Providence at 7, and Iona (15) and San Diego State (16) ahead of Baylor (17) and Purdue (18)?

God no. A 4th grader who reads the sports page would rank/seed college basketball teams far more accurately than the RPI.t Those guys are (and always have been) the absolute worst.

BM1090

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #120 on: January 24, 2022, 12:17:38 PM »
7 seed with a favorable first round matchup in Stadium's projections

https://watchstadium.com/ncaa-tournament-projections-as-of-jan-24-01-24-2022/

The last 4 seed (!!!) on Bracketville. Bracketville has historically been one of the most accurate projections, ranking 9th out of 135 over the past five years and above all the big names.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/seed-list/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

I'll defer to Brewcity who I know puts in way more hours on this than I do, but I'd have us as a 6 seed right now.

TallTitan34

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #121 on: January 24, 2022, 12:19:44 PM »
I'd prefer a 10-14 seed over an 8 or 9. 

6 would be my dream.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #122 on: January 24, 2022, 12:33:18 PM »
I'd prefer a 10-14 seed over an 8 or 9. 

6 would be my dream.

I'm just pleased as punch we get to talk about this right now.

Uncle Rico

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #123 on: January 24, 2022, 12:35:11 PM »
I'd prefer a 10-14 seed over an 8 or 9. 

6 would be my dream.

I agree with this most years.  I think it’s possible there is 1-2 really weak 1-seeds this year, though.

Still, anywhere off the 8-9 line would be great
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brewcity77

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Re: Lunardi says we are gonna dance!
« Reply #124 on: January 24, 2022, 12:38:57 PM »
7 seed with a favorable first round matchup in Stadium's projections

https://watchstadium.com/ncaa-tournament-projections-as-of-jan-24-01-24-2022/

The last 4 seed (!!!) on Bracketville. Bracketville has historically been one of the most accurate projections, ranking 9th out of 135 over the past five years and above all the big names.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/seed-list/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

I'll defer to Brewcity who I know puts in way more hours on this than I do, but I'd have us as a 6 seed right now.

My eyes bugged out when I saw Ommen's projection this morning. Planning to scrub today and tomorrow, but my guess would be in the 5-6 range right now. Our metrics drag us down a bit, but 6 Q1 wins and no losses outside the top two is really solid.
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