Big East Polls, NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[tower912]

Beard is a drag on that program.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Beard is a drag on that program.

Why has Texas collapsed since Shaka left?

Is Beard that bad of a coach?

Is Shake that good of a coach?

[drewm88]

They don't because the NET formula hasn't been cracked yet. Torvik does have his TeamCast, which has similarities to RPI Forecast, but I haven't tested it for accuracy. It does include some metric predictions, but I'm not sure how useful they are. It essentially gives a game-by-game option and where you'd be seeded based on those results.

That said, I'd be skeptical of it's projections. I went through the simulator with Marquette winning out, so beating UCLA, going 20-0 in the Big East, and winning the BET by beating Providence, UConn, and 'Nova, and while it did have us in the tourney, we were only a 7-seed. But if you want to test it out, here it is:

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2022

You have to check the box to use his "DynamaRank" to change all the teams' rankings to reflect the results you pick. I think otherwise the algorithm balances the record with our current ranking in his system.

[CountryRoads]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 9,2021
New Old
5   6   Villanova   
15   14   UConn   
18   20   Xavier   
23   26   Seton Hall   
36   35   Providence   
60   60   Marquette   
72   79   DePaul   
82   84   Creighton   
94   111   St. John's
120   118   Butler   
206   205   Georgetown

MU has way too many good wins to still have this low of a NET ranking. It seems they need to do a better job of beating the cupcakes by 20-30+ points as dumb as that sounds.

Texas is ranked 21 and has only won buy games this year. They've won several of them by 30+ though.

[jficke13]

MU has way too many good wins to still have this low of a NET ranking. It seems they need to do a better job of beating the cupcakes by 20-30+ points as dumb as that sounds.

Texas is ranked 21 and has only won buy games this year. They've won several of them by 30+ though.

That is a weird artifact of how the analytics are weighted.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

MU has way too many good wins to still have this low of a NET ranking. It seems they need to do a better job of beating the cupcakes by 20-30+ points as dumb as that sounds.

Texas is ranked 21 and has only won buy games this year. They've won several of them by 30+ though.

It'll balance out by the end of the year.  But yes,  how much you beat the cupcakes by does matter

[MU82]

It'll balance out by the end of the year.  But yes,  how much you beat the cupcakes by does matter

"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"

"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."

Flawed system.

[The Sultan]

"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"

"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."

Flawed system.

So there is no difference between beating a team by one or beating them by 30?

Edit to add:  I don't think coaches should coach to NET ratings whatsoever.  Keeping a star out of the game and only winning by 15 is a long-run better play.

[tower912]

There is a huge difference.   Narrow wins over cupcakes hurt more than narrow wins over power teams help.

[Uncle Rico]

"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"

"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."

Flawed system.

Good teams win, great teams embarrass their opponents and taunt

[MU82]

So there is no difference between beating a team by one or beating them by 30?

Edit to add:  I don't think coaches should coach to NET ratings whatsoever.  Keeping a star out of the game and only winning by 15 is a long-run better play.

What if it costs them an NCAA bid? If taking Lewis out of a 15-point game against DePaul turns out to have cost us an NCAA bid that we would have gotten if we had won by 30, which would have been a better play? On a smaller scale, what if it costs a tourney-bound team a seed line or two?

It's an idiotic system and it should be altered. The program-designers certainly have the ability to do it.

BTW, I agree with you. If I were Shaka, I'd try real hard not to think about NET during a game.

[BM1090]

What if it costs them an NCAA bid? If taking Lewis out of a 15-point game against DePaul turns out to have cost us an NCAA bid that we would have gotten if we had won by 30, which would have been a better play? On a smaller scale, what if it costs a tourney-bound team a seed line or two?

It's an idiotic system and it should be altered. The program-designers certainly have the ability to do it.

BTW, I agree with you. If I were Shaka, I'd try real hard not to think about NET during a game.

I know when the NET was created the NCAA tried to cap the margin of victory at 10, meaning a 10 point win and a 20 point win would be viewed the same. Unfortunately, it isn't playing out that way at all. I think fixing that bug (if they want to) would be a good move.

[CTWarrior]

"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"

"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."

Flawed system.

That's basically what happened to UConn's star Paige Bueckers.  But that is because Geno is a jerk who just likes to run up the score.  The NET would have meant nothing to them, because they were headed for their customary 30-2 or something season anyway.

[MU82]

That's basically what happened to UConn's star Paige Bueckers.  But that is because Geno is a jerk who just likes to run up the score.  The NET would have meant nothing to them, because they were headed for their customary 30-2 or something season anyway.

Yep. He seems real tortured by it. That sucks for Bueckers, who is an amazing player and so fun to watch.

But yes, that's the exact kind of thing that can -- and probably will -- happen in a men's game if a coach feels he has to chase "the NET number."

I said in an earlier comment that if I were Shaka I'd try real hard not to even think about the NET during a game. But if I go into the final game knowing I probably need to win huge to make the tourney, I guess I keep my foot on the gas no matter what -- starters in the game in the last minute even if I'm up 25 (or down 20).

I guess it would be kind of like one of those soccer playoffs where they play 2 games and use total goals; even if you're up 2-0, if you lost the first game 3-0, you need to keep trying to score. If there were ever 2 goals in a soccer game, of course! 

[jfp61]

That's basically what happened to UConn's star Paige Bueckers.  But that is because Geno is a jerk who just likes to run up the score.  The NET would have meant nothing to them, because they were headed for their customary 30-2 or something season anyway.

Geno being an ass doesn't get talked about enough.

[brewcity77]

I know when the NET was created the NCAA tried to cap the margin of victory at 10, meaning a 10 point win and a 20 point win would be viewed the same. Unfortunately, it isn't playing out that way at all. I think fixing that bug (if they want to) would be a good move.

Eliminate the 10-point cap that had the opposite effect and make the efficiency margin regressive and it'll be sorted.

[MU82]

Eliminate the 10-point cap that had the opposite effect and make the efficiency margin regressive and it'll be sorted.

What do you mean by "make the efficiency margin regressive," brew?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What do you mean by "make the efficiency margin regressive," brew?

Basically, the more you beat a team by,  the less each individual point matters.

Right now the difference between beating a team by 1 and beating a team by two is worth as much as the difference between beating a team by 38 and beating a team by 39. Brews suggestion would make it so running up the score has diminishing returns. I agree with Brews suggestion

Shaka clearly cares about the NET. He had scholarship players pressing the Bonnie's v and Badgers walk ons to cut the margin of victory

[MU82]

Basically, the more you beat a team by,  the less each individual point matters.

Right now the difference between beating a team by 1 and beating a team by two is worth as much as the difference between beating a team by 38 and beating a team by 39. Brews suggestion would make it so running up the score has diminishing returns. I agree with Brews suggestion

Shaka clearly cares about the NET. He had scholarship players pressing the Bonnie's v and Badgers walk ons to cut the margin of victory

Thanks for the explainer. I agree with brew and you -- they should change the idiotic formula.

Thankfully, Kam Jones didn't get hurt pressing Madison walk-ons to get the margin under 20. It's pretty sad that it's come to that.

[mubb3434]

DePaul moved up to 50 NET (from 72) after their road win at Louisville. No other major changes.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 10, 2021
New Old
5   5   Villanova   
14   15   UConn   
18   18   Xavier   
23   23   Seton Hall
36   36   Providence   
50   72   DePaul
60   60   Marquette   
82   82   Creighton   
96   94   St. John's
123   120   Butler   
205   206   Georgetown   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka

[fjm]

We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka

Truth.

[Uncle Rico]

We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka

Al McGuire was never behind DePaul in NET.

[DoctorV]

Whereas Wisconsin was a huge strength of Wojos, DePaul was a massive weakness.

Hopefully for Shaka he fares much better against a better DePaul squad.
This season screams of a split at best under the previous regime. Although the crowds at Wintrust have been better and louder it isn't a daunting road game for MU just yet, especially with the MU faithful that are always in attendance.

I expect a home win and hope for a season sweep, but the away game on Wednesday March 2 may become one of the most important games of the year if this squad continues to play the bubble dance.