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Author Topic: Big East Polls, NET Rankings and Team Sheets  (Read 19912 times)

brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #25 on: December 06, 2021, 04:27:00 PM »
I think if we can win 1 of @K State and UCLA, and go 10-10 in BE, Marquette will be in the tournament.   MAJOR ifs, but that is theoretically 18 wins with a first round BET exit, which you have as NIT.

I really don't think we'll have the metrics without at least 19 wins. It would likely leave us with a NET in the 60s. So far, only two sub-60 NET teams have earned at-large bids. #63 Arizona State with 22 wins and #73 St John's with 21 wins, both in 2019. They also both had multiple wins over teams on the 5 or better seed lines. Now maybe if you include wins over Nova and UConn in those 10, but while our NET will improve by exceeding our projected win total, I don't think 18 will be enough.
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brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #26 on: December 06, 2021, 04:31:15 PM »
Also, Georgetown and Butler look horrible. Not just in the NET, but their actual results don't look like high major teams. So that's 4 games you better win but don't expect a resume boost from them. Going 6-10 against the non-completely garbage teams probably won't be enough.
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Nukem2

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #27 on: December 06, 2021, 04:53:22 PM »
Also, Georgetown and Butler look horrible. Not just in the NET, but their actual results don't look like high major teams. So that's 4 games you better win but don't expect a resume boost from them. Going 6-10 against the non-completely garbage teams probably won't be enough.
G-Town is 3-2 in Quad 4 wins and losses.

Shooter McGavin

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #28 on: December 06, 2021, 05:45:26 PM »
G-Town is 3-2 in Quad 4 wins and losses.

Ewing must be pretty abrasive if all those kids keep transferring out.  Something is really wrong at Georgetown. 

MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #29 on: December 07, 2021, 12:30:38 AM »
Marquette’s Kenpom rating moved from 78 to 77

tower912

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #30 on: December 07, 2021, 06:14:28 AM »
Win enough games and beat good teams and it works itself out.   Lose too many games and it works itself out.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2021, 07:10:44 AM by tower912 »
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Scoop Snoop

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #31 on: December 07, 2021, 07:28:07 AM »
Ewing must be pretty abrasive if all those kids keep transferring out.  Something is really wrong at Georgetown.

I once thought that it would be great to have an alumnus as our coach but after seeing what happened at St. John's and what is happening at Georgetown (and possibly Butler as well) I am glad that we do not have an alumnus as coach. The divorce is especially messy unless the coach is the one to make the decision to leave without obvious prodding from the school.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #32 on: December 07, 2021, 07:43:33 AM »
I once thought that it would be great to have an alumnus as our coach but after seeing what happened at St. John's and what is happening at Georgetown (and possibly Butler as well) I am glad that we do not have an alumnus as coach. The divorce is especially messy unless the coach is the one to make the decision to leave without obvious prodding from the school.

I believe Ewing can coach but roster construction is pretty damn important. 
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #33 on: December 07, 2021, 08:15:00 AM »
I once thought that it would be great to have an alumnus as our coach but after seeing what happened at St. John's and what is happening at Georgetown (and possibly Butler as well) I am glad that we do not have an alumnus as coach. The divorce is especially messy unless the coach is the one to make the decision to leave without obvious prodding from the school.

To be fair I think hiring your superstar alumnus is different than an alum who's proven themselves. Wardle has proven to be at least fairly capable (not at a huge level or deserving of a huge level) so that'd be different than us hiring Wade like SJU and GTown did. Butler f'd up, I mean how did they think hiring a guy who's only year was 11-24 in the horizon was going to work out?
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UWW2MU

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #34 on: December 07, 2021, 08:22:03 AM »
Marquette’s Kenpom rating moved from 78 to 77

You mean from 78 to now 71.      Illinois with a good win against Iowa moved them from 48 to 30 and they dragged us up a bit with them.  I'd expect them to continue to do that a bit as the season rolls on.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2021, 08:34:20 AM by UWW2MU »

Shooter McGavin

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #35 on: December 07, 2021, 08:41:46 AM »
You mean from 78 to now 71.      Illinois with a good win against Iowa moved them from 48 to 30 and they dragged us up a bit with them.  I'd expect them to continue to do that a bit as the season rolls on.

Kenpom 77.  You talking NET?

UWW2MU

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #36 on: December 07, 2021, 08:43:51 AM »
Kenpom 77.  You talking NET?


Ohhhh, yes I was.  Sorry, was skimming and since it was a thread about NET that's where my mind went.   In conclusion, yes moved up to 71 in NET ranking.   

Scoop Snoop

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #37 on: December 07, 2021, 08:46:25 AM »
To be fair I think hiring your superstar alumnus is different than an alum who's proven themselves. Wardle has proven to be at least fairly capable (not at a huge level or deserving of a huge level) so that'd be different than us hiring Wade like SJU and GTown did. Butler f'd up, I mean how did they think hiring a guy who's only year was 11-24 in the horizon was going to work out?

Fair point regarding a super star like Wade. Ewing had experience in the NBA but not as a college HC. Agreee on Jordan. Yet even an alumnus who has proven himself at another school may or may not be the ideal coach and if it does not work out, a divorce may be messy. We had Majerus who, to put it mildly, was not a super star at Marquette and Syracuse has had Cryin' Jim for decades, so I'm not saying it cannot work out. I just think it is probably best to hire non alumni as coaches.

Majerus was in a polysci class I took at MU. Even as an undergrad, he had that same patented goofy look on his face you may have seen during games.
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MU82

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2021, 08:51:37 AM »
No star alum as MU coach? There goes Ners' hopes and dreams!
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tower912

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #39 on: December 07, 2021, 08:54:52 AM »
You've got experience, 82.    You could be next.    You may be too old, though.    ;D
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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MU82

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #40 on: December 07, 2021, 09:43:16 AM »
You've got experience, 82.    You could be next.    You may be too old, though.    ;D

Hey ... I'm nearly 2 years younger than Calipari!

But the Shaka-cons would hate my defense, as it is similar to his ... in set-up, anyway. Not very many 6-5, long-armed middle-school kids.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #41 on: December 07, 2021, 10:09:38 AM »
I really don't think we'll have the metrics without at least 19 wins. It would likely leave us with a NET in the 60s. So far, only two sub-60 NET teams have earned at-large bids. #63 Arizona State with 22 wins and #73 St John's with 21 wins, both in 2019. They also both had multiple wins over teams on the 5 or better seed lines. Now maybe if you include wins over Nova and UConn in those 10, but while our NET will improve by exceeding our projected win total, I don't think 18 will be enough.

Fair enough.  I think it would be tough to leave a team out with a .500 BE record, no bad non-con losses, and non-con wins over Illinois, West Virginia, Ole Miss and K State/UCLA.  But I'd certainly feel better at 11-9, or winning a couple games in NYC.

That said, 10-10 is going to be a very tall ask, so this hypothetical is probably more fantasy than anything else.
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #42 on: December 07, 2021, 10:30:09 AM »
Fair enough.  I think it would be tough to leave a team out with a .500 BE record, no bad non-con losses, and non-con wins over Illinois, West Virginia, Ole Miss and K State/UCLA.  But I'd certainly feel better at 11-9, or winning a couple games in NYC.

That said, 10-10 is going to be a very tall ask, so this hypothetical is probably more fantasy than anything else.

I hope 10-10 is not a fantasy.  But if we do collapse it will be similar to the DePaul season a couple years ago when they had a great nonconference season and then imploded in conference.

That would leave a bad taste in all our mouths and I believe lead to transfers out of the program and a possible Georgetown death spiral.

I don’t think that will happen.   Too much talent on this team even though it is young.  And if Shaka is as competent a coach as we all hope he can extract enough wins out of this team to get us to 10-10 or 9-11 at worst.  Let’s hope so anyway. 

BLM

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2021, 10:33:56 AM »
I hope 10-10 is not a fantasy.  But if we do collapse it will be similar to the DePaul season a couple years ago when they had a great nonconference season and then imploded in conference.

That would leave a bad taste in all our mouths and I believe lead to transfers out of the program and a possible Georgetown death spiral.

I don’t think that will happen.   Too much talent on this team even though it is young.  And if Shaka is as competent a coach as we all hope he can extract enough wins out of this team to get us to 10-10 or 9-11 at worst.  Let’s hope so anyway.

But where is the talent, really?  Morsell was an Honorable Mention Big Ten player twice.  Has anybody else on our roster made any kind of All Conference team in their careers?  Are the kids who are in their first season of college basketball 5 stars who will make it this year?
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2021, 10:48:01 AM »
But where is the talent, really?  Morsell was an Honorable Mention Big Ten player twice.  Has anybody else on our roster made any kind of All Conference team in their careers?  Are the kids who are in their first season of college basketball 5 stars who will make it this year?

I’m not talking win the conference talent.  I’m talking enough talent to go .500 or very close to it.  Five wins (for example) in conference would be concerning with GT and Butler as bottom feeders in addition to winnable games against the middle tier teams.   We didn’t beat WV and Ole Miss by accident.  There is enough talent that good coaching should get us near .500. 

tower912

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #45 on: December 07, 2021, 11:18:36 AM »
Hey ... I'm nearly 2 years younger than Calipari!

But the Shaka-cons would hate my defense, as it is similar to his ... in set-up, anyway. Not very many 6-5, long-armed middle-school kids.
I feel for you.


You should patent Shaka-con.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #46 on: December 07, 2021, 01:47:35 PM »
I hope 10-10 is not a fantasy.  But if we do collapse it will be similar to the DePaul season a couple years ago when they had a great nonconference season and then imploded in conference.

That would leave a bad taste in all our mouths and I believe lead to transfers out of the program and a possible Georgetown death spiral.

I don’t think that will happen.   Too much talent on this team even though it is young.  And if Shaka is as competent a coach as we all hope he can extract enough wins out of this team to get us to 10-10 or 9-11 at worst.  Let’s hope so anyway.

I mean, there is talent on this team for sure.  But its so young.  Consistency is clearly a problem, and is shot making.  We've been dismantled by the 2 best teams we've played, and we beat Illinois at home without their best player.  All in all, I've been pleasantly surprised by this team.  I thought we'd be 5-4 right now, so I am happy that a tournament conversation is even on the table at this point.  But I think this team is more likely to go 0-5 in its next 5 than 3-2.  So I guess let's see where we stand on December 30th. 
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brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2021, 02:52:41 PM »
Win enough games and beat good teams and it works itself out.   Lose too many games and it works itself out.

Yes and no. This was definitely the case when RPI was the main metric, but now that they are using an efficiency based metric, how much you win or lose by is just about as important. Colorado State didn't miss the tournament last year because they didn't beat enough good teams. They had a higher winning percentage, better Q1+2 record, and no bad losses compared to fellow MWC league mate Utah State.

But USU was ranked #47 in the NET and CSU was #63. If it was just about winning enough games and beating good teams, CSU's RPI of #41 would've got them in ahead of #56 USU, but now it's about minimizing loss margins and winning in blowout fashion that matters more.
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brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #48 on: December 07, 2021, 03:03:10 PM »
That said, 10-10 is going to be a very tall ask, so this hypothetical is probably more fantasy than anything else.

I'm not sure about that. Georgetown and Butler so far are gross levels of bad. Creighton and DePaul might be a little better, but I think 6 wins from those 8 games should be the minimum expectation. I think 4-8 in the rest of the games, with 6 at home, is certainly a realistic, if not modest, hope.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #49 on: December 07, 2021, 04:27:38 PM »
If the ‘Quette loses a game to Georgetown or Butler, they should revoke everyone’s scholarships
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