More conference realignment talk

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What's the argument they're going to make?  That the University of Illinois can't be allowed make decisions in its own best interest?  Its unfair they no longer want to compete with us, but want to compete only against a smaller number of equally powerful teams?

I don't see a successful argument that the U of I should be held back by state law because fans of Chicago State or SIU-Edwardsville or Eastern Illinois are miffed that they are no longer considered competors at the same level.

And it's a lot easier to understand the counterargument from Illinois being "well, fans of NIU, Governors State, Illinois State, etc, all you need to do is build an athletic program that brings as much to the table as we do, and I'm sure you'll be invited to participate as well. But until then, it sounds like you're just trying to ride our gravy train.

State governments prevent state universities from making decisions in their own best interest all the time. I'm not saying it is logical or right, just that the state of Illinois doesn't really need an argument, just the votes.

[WhiteTrash]

What's the argument they're going to make?  That the University of Illinois can't be allowed make decisions in its own best interest?  Its unfair they no longer want to compete with us, but want to compete only against a smaller number of equally powerful teams?

I don't see a successful argument that the U of I should be held back by state law because fans of Chicago State or SIU-Edwardsville or Eastern Illinois are miffed that they are no longer considered competors at the same level.

And it's a lot easier to understand the counterargument from Illinois being "well, fans of NIU, Governors State, Illinois State, etc, all you need to do is build an athletic program that brings as much to the table as we do, and I'm sure you'll be invited to participate as well. But until then, it sounds like you're just trying to ride our gravy train.

Large public universities have been built on and continue to "ride the gravy train" of tax payers. What would the economic fortunes underwriting the massive investment into sports look like if the Big Ten (x- N'western) universities had to simply purchase the land they sit on? (This is say nothing of annual tax revenues they receive.) I dare say we would not see a new sports facility for decades.

The concept and mission of public universities is sound and good. I have no problem with my tax dollars (in what ever vehicle the university receives them) going to them but they have parleyed the academic minded capital into sports factories that now dominate inter-collegiate sports. In short, they are standing on the shoulders of giants, or in sports parlance, "they were born on third base".

[The Equalizer]

I don't think we agree on how it will look, but we seem to agree that a group of 100-150 schools will break off from the rest of D1. I just think they will break off entirely in football, and create a new division of the NCAA in all other sports.

Well, they are going to have to break off completely from the NCAA in basketball as well, because if they don't, total revenue will be limited by the current NCAA basketball tournament contract.

Those breakaway schools alone could conceivably land a TV deal that could double what the NCAA contract is worth between now and 2032. Staying in the NCAA means leaving billions on the table. 

[brewcity77]

What's the argument they're going to make?  That the University of Illinois can't be allowed make decisions in its own best interest?

No. That the University of Illinois-Champaign-Urbana isn't a private corporation and must act in the best interest of the University of Illinois SYSTEM as a whole.

[The Sultan]

No. That the University of Illinois-Champaign-Urbana isn't a private corporation and must act in the best interest of the University of Illinois SYSTEM as a whole.

They "must act in best interest of the System as a whole?" How does one campus know what's in the best interests of the entire system?  Is an action that disproportionately benefits one campus necessarily against the best interests of the system?

[WhiteTrash]

They "must act in best interest of the System as a whole?" How does one campus know what's in the best interests of the entire system?  Is an action that disproportionately benefits one campus necessarily against the best interests of the system?

You have a point, you're talking about Illinois government. I don't know if anyone at the State of Illinois knows what's in the best interest of anything in that state.

[bilsu]

I don't think we agree on how it will look, but we seem to agree that a group of 100-150 schools will break off from the rest of D1. I just think they will break off entirely in football, and create a new division of the NCAA in all other sports.

If the power 5 breaks off, it will be less than 75 schools.

It would be a good thing, if sports were generating income that was used to reduce overall college tuition. However, I do not think that is what is actually happening.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Well, they are going to have to break off completely from the NCAA in basketball as well, because if they don't, total revenue will be limited by the current NCAA basketball tournament contract.

Those breakaway schools alone could conceivably land a TV deal that could double what the NCAA contract is worth between now and 2032. Staying in the NCAA means leaving billions on the table.

I'll go on record as saying that those teams will still be in the NCAA by 2032

If the power 5 breaks off, it will be less than 75 schools.

I doubt it.

[The Sultan]

If the power 5 breaks off, it will be less than 75 schools.

It would be a good thing, if sports were generating income that was used to reduce overall college tuition. However, I do not think that is what is actually happening.

Because tuition is largely set by supply and demand.

[WhiteTrash]

Because tuition is largely set by supply and demand.

True and supply, relative to populations growth, of high quality college education has shrunk. Top 150 schools have not increased enrollments to keep pace with population growth but have leveraged the scarcity of their "product" into significantly higher tuition. I know I'm far from alone where I pay $90,000 per year on college tuition for 2 kids. Over time this will/has factored into the wealth gap. That said, my friend and business partner never went to college and did not inherit anything (dirt poor parents) but is in the top 0.5% of wealthy Americans, so it can be done without a degree.

[forgetful]

If the power 5 breaks off, it will be less than 75 schools.

It would be a good thing, if sports were generating income that was used to reduce overall college tuition. However, I do not think that is what is actually happening.

Not only is that not actually happening. Universities continue to use student tuition to offset losses in athletics.

[brewcity77]

If the power 5 breaks off, it will be less than 75 schools.

Maybe at the football level. Not at the basketball level. Restricting a 64 or 68 team tournament to fewer than 75 potential entrants would be hot garbage. Might as well call it the "Participation Ribbon Invitational."

[jficke13]

Because tuition is largely set by supply and demand.

I'm gonna assume this is one of those "I didn't use teal and if you thought I needed to then you're the internet dummy" situations.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Per Dodd, Notre Dame is looking at $75 million (at least) annually from NBC to extend their football TV deal with them.  Dodd (a Big 12 reporter) is pushing for the Big 12 to be paired with the ND package for NBC to become a big(ger) player in college football content.  ND sitting pretty at the moment, as they continue to have a standing invitation to the Big Ten (that will likely eclipse $100 million annually as a B1G member). 

If NBC doesn't meet the demands, ND could be gone to the Big Ten - thus sparking off another wave of realignment.  Pretty wild that NBC basically controls the fate of the PAC, Big 12 and ACC moving forward.  If ND books it to the Big Ten, they will certainly add another member to get to 18 teams, and the SEC isn't going to stand back and watch the Big Ten (over the course of several weeks) poach USC, UCLA, Notre Dame and potentially others. 

[The Sultan]

NBC is usually pretty conservative when it comes to rights fees. (Outside of the NFL.) Plus they already shuddered NBCSN so are they going to show games on USA?

[bilsu]

Per Dodd, Notre Dame is looking at $75 million (at least) annually from NBC to extend their football TV deal with them.  Dodd (a Big 12 reporter) is pushing for the Big 12 to be paired with the ND package for NBC to become a big(ger) player in college football content.  ND sitting pretty at the moment, as they continue to have a standing invitation to the Big Ten (that will likely eclipse $100 million annually as a B1G member). 

If NBC doesn't meet the demands, ND could be gone to the Big Ten - thus sparking off another wave of realignment.  Pretty wild that NBC basically controls the fate of the PAC, Big 12 and ACC moving forward.  If ND books it to the Big Ten, they will certainly add another member to get to 18 teams, and the SEC isn't going to stand back and watch the Big Ten (over the course of several weeks) poach USC, UCLA, Notre Dame and potentially others.

I wonder if TV does not realize that there is a risk that nobody is going to play Notre Dame if Notre Dame remains independent by negotiating their own TV contract. When conferences go to 20 teams. It is possible the big power conferences will not be playing out of conference opponents.

[The Sultan]

I wonder if TV does not realize that there is a risk that nobody is going to play Notre Dame if Notre Dame remains independent by negotiating their own TV contract. When conferences go to 20 teams. It is possible the big power conferences will not be playing out of conference opponents.

Notre Dame will have no trouble filling out a schedule. The P5 will not be going more than 9 or 10 conference games regardless of size.

[DFW HOYA]

Notre Dame will have no trouble filling out a schedule. The P5 will not be going more than 9 or 10 conference games regardless of size.

UConn, not so much.

[Billy Hoyle]

Because tuition is largely set by supply and demand.

nah, it's to keep up with the ever-growing bureaucracy and expanding departments. Cal Berkeley is spending $25 million a year in DEI department salaries, 58% of that from tuition. Michigan spends over $13 million for DEI salaries. IT has always been an every growing department too, especially with so many schools doing online classes. Then the facilities arms race and increasing scholarships to keep up with costs.

[Dish]

NBC is usually pretty conservative when it comes to rights fees. (Outside of the NFL.) Plus they already shuddered NBCSN so are they going to show games on USA?

I've mentioned it a couple times in this thread (by no means yelling at you) that NBC wants a Saturday Big 10 5pm(ish) EST game, and also a handful of games to show on Peacock in September (non conference).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

nah, it's to keep up with the ever-growing bureaucracy and expanding departments. Cal Berkeley is spending $25 million a year in DEI department salaries, 58% of that from tuition. Michigan spends over $13 million for DEI salaries. IT has always been an every growing department too, especially with so many schools doing online classes. Then the facilities arms race and increasing scholarships to keep up with costs.

Close but no cigar on those numbers

[The Sultan]

nah, it's to keep up with the ever-growing bureaucracy and expanding departments. Cal Berkeley is spending $25 million a year in DEI department salaries, 58% of that from tuition. Michigan spends over $13 million for DEI salaries. IT has always been an every growing department too, especially with so many schools doing online classes. Then the facilities arms race and increasing scholarships to keep up with costs.

So you think people are paying more than the value they are getting???  Of course not.

Therefore supply and demand.

[The Sultan]

I've mentioned it a couple times in this thread (by no means yelling at you) that NBC wants a Saturday Big 10 5pm(ish) EST game, and also a handful of games to show on Peacock in September (non conference).

Gotcha.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Thamel reporting the PAC and Big 12 will not be partnering or merging.  The financials didn't work.

Both leagues will look to poach from the other, IMO.  I don't think the payouts will be radically different.  The only way a merger would have made sense is if the top brands of each league consolidated and trimmed the fat of the deadweights.

[WhiteTrash]

Talks between the Pac12 and Big12 have ended. No merger. Sounds like the Big12 didn't see value in being with all the Pac12 schools. Does the Big12 start picking from the bones of the Pac12?

I feel bad for the Pac12. Going into talks for a new TV deal and USC & UCLA jump ship. I'm no media expert but they don't have much to sell. I've read as presently constituted the Big12 could get double the money than the Pac12 will get. And the Big12 will not even be close to the Big10 & SEC neighborhood.