2021-22 NBA Thread: The Bucks are Reigning Champs

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Am I too much of a homer if I think it was more about getting guys rest and preventing injury than tanking?

I'm sure that was a factor....but if Brooklyn wasn't the likely 7 seed, I bet they play to win that last game.

[MU82]

If they did though, they would have ended up in the 4 seed which puts them up against the 1 seed in the second round. It also likely means never having home court advantage after round 1, whereas the Bucks could have home court advantage in round 2 if the Nets pull off the upset.

Thirdly, they would have ended up playing Toronto in round one. There is some speculation that there is at least one unvaccinated player of note on the Celtics  which would have put them in a bind for the games in Toronto.

Thanks for that info, TAMU. I wasn't sure how the tiebreakers stacked up. That makes sense.

[MU82]

Word is that rocky and 'topper are gonna spend exactly 8 seconds each on Scoop today so that each earns a $306,000 bonus.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Ja Morant is good player, but at this point I wouldn't say he's top 20.  I'd say 30-40 but rising.

Luka is top 10. Trae Young top 20 based on last year but could go either up or down a little.

Herro maybe top 200.

Updating my player ratings after the season:

Luka is pushing towards the top 5, but I have him 6th.  Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Durant, and Lebron are my top 5.

Ja Morant made a leap to the top 20.  I can see the argument for him being top 10, but he missed a lot of games and the Grizzlies still won a bunch without him.  I'll say 15th for now but still ascending.

Trae Young had a strong year individually but the Hawks as a team didn't progress.  I'll put him just inside the top 15, up a few spots from the start of the year.

Tyler Herro made a big jump, upping his usage and maintaining his efficiency.  Still a bit streaky as a scorer and not a great defender.  I'll move him into the top 100, but not top 75.

[forgetful]

Updating my player ratings after the season:

Luka is pushing towards the top 5, but I have him 6th.  Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Durant, and Lebron are my top 5.

Ja Morant made a leap to the top 20.  I can see the argument for him being top 10, but he missed a lot of games and the Grizzlies still won a bunch without him.  I'll say 15th for now but still ascending.

Trae Young had a strong year individually but the Hawks as a team didn't progress.  I'll put him just inside the top 15, up a few spots from the start of the year.

Tyler Herro made a big jump, upping his usage and maintaining his efficiency.  Still a bit streaky as a scorer and not a great defender.  I'll move him into the top 100, but not top 75.

I don't know how Lebron makes the top 5. His stats look good, because he was stat hunting. If you watched his games, he often sat around doing nothing on defense, often didn't even both trying to get back, and then would look for his stats on offense.

Yes, he still had some all world games, but largely he put up big numbers on a bad team (of his design) by stat hunting. Another player putting up his same stats on a lottery team would be disregarded as best player on a bad team.

[MU82]

Updating my player ratings after the season:

Luka is pushing towards the top 5, but I have him 6th.  Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Durant, and Lebron are my top 5.

Ja Morant made a leap to the top 20.  I can see the argument for him being top 10, but he missed a lot of games and the Grizzlies still won a bunch without him.  I'll say 15th for now but still ascending.

Trae Young had a strong year individually but the Hawks as a team didn't progress.  I'll put him just inside the top 15, up a few spots from the start of the year.

Tyler Herro made a big jump, upping his usage and maintaining his efficiency.  Still a bit streaky as a scorer and not a great defender.  I'll move him into the top 100, but not top 75.

Where you got my guy, LaMelo ... and my other guy, Miles Bridges?

[MUfan12]

Am I too much of a homer if I think it was more about getting guys rest and preventing injury than tanking?

3rd game in 4 nights definitely played part of it. Look at what happened to Doncic last night. I'm sure the Bucks wanted to avoid that just as much as a series with Brooklyn.

It was advantageous on both fronts for them to sit guys yesterday.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I don't know how Lebron makes the top 5. His stats look good, because he was stat hunting. If you watched his games, he often sat around doing nothing on defense, often didn't even both trying to get back, and then would look for his stats on offense.

Yes, he still had some all world games, but largely he put up big numbers on a bad team (of his design) by stat hunting. Another player putting up his same stats on a lottery team would be disregarded as best player on a bad team.

I still give Lebron some credit for past performance.  And his efficiency was still superb.

As a defacto GM, Lebron absolutely stunk.  He deserves all the heat for that, but the man can still ball.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Where you got my guy, LaMelo ... and my other guy, Miles Bridges?

LaMelo around 35.  Really like his game and think he will keep ascending.  Wouldn't surprise me to see Ball make a Morant like jump next year.

Miles Bridges...haven't really dug in to him.  My gut reaction says somewhere between 100-150.

[GoldenEagles03]

https://youtu.be/1CmqTS7Pcz0

Bam Adebayo talks about how he wants to be in a category with DWade only.

Sidebar: Would you be able to conduct a serious interview with the host in that attire? It's 2022 do whatever the heck you want I suppose!

[MU82]

LaMelo around 35.  Really like his game and think he will keep ascending.  Wouldn't surprise me to see Ball make a Morant like jump next year.

Miles Bridges...haven't really dug in to him.  My gut reaction says somewhere between 100-150.

Thanks.

LaMelo has special offensive talent. Amazing court vision and passing ability, and nearly 40% 3-point shooting despite funky form. He'll also take (and make) floaters from anywhere 15 feet and in. When he's hitting from the outside, he's pretty much unstoppable. Underrated rebounder - nearly 7 per game. Only occasionally bothers to try on D though.

Bridges is extremely talented and is gonna be very, very rich after betting on himself and turning down about $17M/yr before this season. But I don't blame you for not checking him out. He plays for a smaller-market team in the shadow of a charismatic all-star.

[MuggsyB]

Updating my player ratings after the season:

Luka is pushing towards the top 5, but I have him 6th.  Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Durant, and Lebron are my top 5.

Ja Morant made a leap to the top 20.  I can see the argument for him being top 10, but he missed a lot of games and the Grizzlies still won a bunch without him.  I'll say 15th for now but still ascending.

Trae Young had a strong year individually but the Hawks as a team didn't progress.  I'll put him just inside the top 15, up a few spots from the start of the year.

Tyler Herro made a big jump, upping his usage and maintaining his efficiency.  Still a bit streaky as a scorer and not a great defender.  I'll move him into the top 100, but not top 75.

I have a hard time not seeing Herro in the top 75. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I have a hard time not seeing Herro in the top 75. 

He's ranked 80th in VORP.  Right above Pat Connaughton.

[forgetful]

I still give Lebron some credit for past performance. And his efficiency was still superb.

As a defacto GM, Lebron absolutely stunk.  He deserves all the heat for that, but the man can still ball.

Reasonable. Thank you for the response.

[MuggsyB]

He's ranked 80th in VORP.  Right above Pat Connaughton.

So because he's ranked 79 in this category, and Connaughton is at 80, are you saying they're essentially even players?  I'm not a Herro fan but obviously not a single GM or knowledgeable fan would ever think these two guys have similar impact on a roster. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

So because he's ranked 79 in this category, and Connaughton is at 80, are you saying they're essentially even players?  I'm not a Herro fan but obviously not a single GM or knowledgeable fan would ever think these two guys have similar impact on a roster. 

They are different players no doubt.  Connaughton is a low usage role player, while Herro is a high usage (18th in the NBA) starter/role player.  I would suggest that PC performs extremely well in his limited role, while Herro is up and down in his.  Some games he excels, and some he struggles, leaving him with a VORP that puts him 80th and a PER around 112th.  I mean of all those who average 20 minutes plus per game on Miami this year, his TS% is the second lowest.

Don't get me wrong.  The dude can get hot and carry them at times.  But he also can have real bad stretches, which is why he ends up where he does.  My guess is with time he will climb up the efficiency charts.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Oh and let me just say that I agree with you Mugs that a GM would love to have Herro.  At 22, he has huge upside so he is going to get a big contract.

But that contract is betting on who he will become as a player - not just who he is now. 

[MuggsyB]

They are different players no doubt.  Connaughton is a low usage role player, while Herro is a high usage (18th in the NBA) starter/role player.  I would suggest that PC performs extremely well in his limited role, while Herro is up and down in his.  Some games he excels, and some he struggles, leaving him with a VORP that puts him 80th and a PER around 112th.  I mean of all those who average 20 minutes plus per game on Miami this year, his TS% is the second lowest.

Don't get me wrong.  The dude can get hot and carry them at times.  But he also can have real bad stretches, which is why he ends up where he does.  My guess is with time he will climb up the efficiency charts.

I'm not a stats/analytics guy but I do know that Herro is 1 of 25 guys or so that average 20 a night.  My guess is if you look among the guards that average 20 points a game Herro's FG% is probably about average and his 3p and FT% above average. 

He's not a particularly good distributor, doesn't get to the line much, and can kick the ball away.  But as far as the. "real bad stretches" my contention is that most perimeter guys in the league,  who are high volume shooters averaging 20, have bad stretches.  Off the top of my head:  Young, Curry, Mitchell, Lillard, McCollum, Harden,  Lavine, Van Vleet, Garland, Brown, Tatum, Booker, etc, etc, etc.  They can all go brick city for extended periods of time.   Now I'm not saying he's near the top tier of this group in his level of play but he still averages 20 and takes 15+ shots for a reason.  I'd be curious if there is anyone else among the top 25 scorers that wouldn't be thought of as a top 75 player?

[MU82]

Not sure why you're fixated on "top 75," Muggs. What difference does it make?

Herro's good at what he's asked to do. Let's not make him out to be something special yet. He's basically Terry Rozier -- and I don't say that as a slight; Rozier's a good player.

We'll see if Herro justifies the payday he's gonna get.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I'm not a stats/analytics guy but I do know that Herro is 1 of 25 guys or so that average 20 a night.  My guess is if you look among the guards that average 20 points a game Herro's FG% is probably about average and his 3p and FT% above average. 

He's not a particularly good distributor, doesn't get to the line much, and can kick the ball away.  But as far as the. "real bad stretches" my contention is that most perimeter guys in the league,  who are high volume shooters averaging 20, have bad stretches.  Off the top of my head:  Young, Curry, Mitchell, Lillard, McCollum, Harden,  Lavine, Van Vleet, Garland, Brown, Tatum, Booker, etc, etc, etc.  They can all go brick city for extended periods of time.   Now I'm not saying he's near the top tier of this group in his level of play but he still averages 20 and takes 15+ shots for a reason.  I'd be curious if there is anyone else among the top 25 scorers that wouldn't be thought of as a top 75 player?

After just a brief look, Herro’s TS% is lower than most guards who average 20 ppg.

[Skatastrophy]

Not sure why you're fixated on "top 75," Muggs. What difference does it make?

Herro's good at what he's asked to do. Let's not make him out to be something special yet. He's basically Terry Rozier -- and I don't say that as a slight; Rozier's a good player.

We'll see if Herro justifies the payday he's gonna get.

Tyler with one more year on his contract. He's been a lot of fun to watch, and he's growing under Lowry's mentorship.

Dipo's contract is up, and he just dropped 40 in the season closer to the Magic. I'm not sure Dipo gets much run on the Heat in the playoffs, and I wonder how much he gets paid next year. He's been on a vet minimum for the Heat the whole time while he rehabbed.

[MuggsyB]

Not sure why you're fixated on "top 75," Muggs. What difference does it make?

Herro's good at what he's asked to do. Let's not make him out to be something special yet. He's basically Terry Rozier -- and I don't say that as a slight; Rozier's a good player.

I'm not fixated, it just sounds unreasonable to me.  Personally I don't care for Herro and hope he's terrible in the playoffs.

We'll see if Herro justifies the payday he's gonna get.

[MU82]

Lakers supposedly want Nick Nurse as their next coach, but he's under contract and they'd have to trade for him.

And they don't have any first-round draft picks until 2026.

The Athletic says Juwan Howard might also be a candidate, and that could be interesting.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I have a hard time not seeing Herro in the top 75.

Herro is still a weak defender.  He's also inconsistent.  His true shooting percentage , as was discussed earlier in this thread, bears that out.

Consistency is what separates the great players from the good players.  So, while Herro looks like an All-Star at times, he lacks All-Star consistency.  That's why I put Herro in the 76-100 tier.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Herro vs Connaughton is comparing apples and oranges.  If they were traded for each other straight up, the Bucks and Heat might both get worse.

On the Bucks, Herro would be reduced to the 4th option behind Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday.  He could match Connaughton's offense but the Bucks would get worse on defense.  Overall a net loss.

On the Heat, Connaughton wouldn't be able to replicate Herro's volume scoring.  The Heat have plenty of role playing shooters already like Max Strus and Duncan Robinson.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are good scorers but not good enough to carry an offense by themselves. A volume scorer is more valuable to the Heat due to their roster construction.