2021-2022 NFL Season

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Very hot and then hurricane season.   How many of the 2.3 million residents can afford season tickets?  And would we then have to make PR a state?

How many corporations are going to buy boxes there?  How is the near bankrupt PR going to build a stadium in the first place?

Romantic idea but doesn't seem very realistic to me.

[DegenerateDish]

I think we were all just selfishly saying we’d love to go to San Juan in Nov/Dec for a game.

Wanted to throw this out there, I think the dogs will be barking this weekend. I’m going to be on the Lions, Jets, Giants, Vikings, Seahawks in some fashion. If the Steelers could get to +7.5, I’d be interested.

[GooooMarquette]

Serious question.   Since BYU has to have the NCAA tourney arranged so it doesn't play a Sunday game.....

Would the LDS folks turn out for a professional sporting event held on a Sunday in sufficient numbers?

That was the first question that popped into my mind as well. I think the Sunday schedule of the NFL would be a huge issue out there.

Not quite the same as BYU being a Mormon-run institution, as there are obviously non-Mormons in Utah. But I still think the critical mass would be lacking.

[Dr. Blackheart]

How many corporations are going to buy boxes there?  How is the near bankrupt PR going to build a stadium in the first place?

Romantic idea but doesn't seem very realistic to me.

Lots of tax breaks available. How many rich fans in Jax or NO?  Both reside on the Hurricane Highway.

And in reality, Phoenix and Tampa fan bases were built on the Snow Bird population migration. Many Vegas Raiders fans fly in for the weekend from the Bay Area.

[Hards Alumni]

San Juan metro population is 2.3 million.  San Juan Hurricanes would be a big draw.  Betting, traveling fans like Vegas. Newsie has the cash.

Endorse.  I love PR

[jficke13]

Very hot and then hurricane season.   How many of the 2.3 million residents can afford season tickets?  And would we then have to make PR a state?

Looking forward to adding Mexico and Ontario as states too when the NFL embraces it's role as the vanguard of empire.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Would love a team in San Juan, don't see it happening unfortunately.

[dgies9156]

Amid all of the questions about whose next, one intriguing question is if the NFL were formed today and could start over, where would they place franchises. The debate about the next city is interesting but, given the economic, social and demographic make-up of this country, where would they locate franchises.

Major American cities could be broken down into four categories -- the 15 largest markets that are "locks" for any sports franchise. There's another nine cities -- including two the NFL is not in -- that would be probable locations for franchises. What's interesting is guessing where the NFL is that, if they had to do it over again from scratch, might not get a team and the six cities, four of which have a team, that most likely would not.

Of course, you'd have to deal with stadiums, etc., but imagining what the foundation of the NFL would look like today is interesting.

Here's the list:

Locks              Probable      Maybe Not         No
New York City      Charlotte      Pittsburgh         Green Bay
Boston              Nashville      Cincinnati         Buffalo
Washington      Tampa      New Orleans      Jacksonville
Philadelphia      Orlando      Indianapolis      Baltimore
Chicago              Cleveland      Portland         St. Louis
Atlanta              Twin Cities                       Memphis
Dallas              Kansas City            
Houston              Las Vegas            
Phoenix              San Diego            
Denver                  
Los Angeles                  
San Francisco                  
Seattle                  
Detroit                  
Miami                  
   

The locks are self-evident. They're the largest and most prosperous metro areas in the United States. The only surprise in that list is Detroit, which if the NFL started today, would be a lock because of the presence of the automobile and finance businesses. With he rest of these cities, there's no way you could have an NFK without a presence in each of these markets.

The probables are strong markets with good population growth, corporate headquarters or other factors conducive to a major market sports franchise. This includes San Diego and Orlando -- two markets that today do not have NFL teams but if the league were constituted from scratch, I can't imagine they would not get one. The only constraint would be how large a new league would want to be.

The Maybe Nots are cities that, in all but one case, have NFL franchises. These are post industrial cities that largely have supported their teams. But if you were to start from scratch, the only city in this group I might put a team in would be Cincinnati, largely because of the presence of a strong banking community and Procter & Gamble. New Orleans is a relatively small metro area that, if I was starting from scratch, I'd probably look elsewhere. Portland, with Nike and strong demographics, ordinarily would be a good location. But is it big enough and is the city stable enough to support an NFL team.

Of the definitely nots, the one that's going to get me in trouble is Green Bay. And, that includes Milwaukee. The state is an incredible supporter of the Packers, like Pittsburgh and the Steelers. But, it's just too small and Milwaukee has significant racial and dying industry problems. The shrinkage in the city and slow growth in the suburbs is telling and would not be a place I'd want to start from scratch. Ditto for Buffalo -- which, if starting from scratch, would be in Toronto. Baltimore, Memphis, St. Louis and even Jacksonville are slow growth markets with a changing economic base.

In short, if the NFL were starting today, there would be a whole lot fewer Midwest teams. The focus would be on high-growth communities that are strong and growing media markets.

[Herman Cain]

Amid all of the questions about whose next, one intriguing question is if the NFL were formed today and could start over, where would they place franchises. The debate about the next city is interesting but, given the economic, social and demographic make-up of this country, where would they locate franchises.

Major American cities could be broken down into four categories -- the 15 largest markets that are "locks" for any sports franchise. There's another nine cities -- including two the NFL is not in -- that would be probable locations for franchises. What's interesting is guessing where the NFL is that, if they had to do it over again from scratch, might not get a team and the six cities, four of which have a team, that most likely would not.

Of course, you'd have to deal with stadiums, etc., but imagining what the foundation of the NFL would look like today is interesting.

Here's the list:

Locks              Probable      Maybe Not         No
New York City      Charlotte      Pittsburgh         Green Bay
Boston              Nashville      Cincinnati         Buffalo
Washington      Tampa      New Orleans      Jacksonville
Philadelphia      Orlando      Indianapolis      Baltimore
Chicago              Cleveland      Portland         St. Louis
Atlanta              Twin Cities                       Memphis
Dallas              Kansas City            
Houston              Las Vegas            
Phoenix              San Diego            
Denver                  
Los Angeles                  
San Francisco                  
Seattle                  
Detroit                  
Miami                  
   

The locks are self-evident. They're the largest and most prosperous metro areas in the United States. The only surprise in that list is Detroit, which if the NFL started today, would be a lock because of the presence of the automobile and finance businesses. With he rest of these cities, there's no way you could have an NFK without a presence in each of these markets.

The probables are strong markets with good population growth, corporate headquarters or other factors conducive to a major market sports franchise. This includes San Diego and Orlando -- two markets that today do not have NFL teams but if the league were constituted from scratch, I can't imagine they would not get one. The only constraint would be how large a new league would want to be.

The Maybe Nots are cities that, in all but one case, have NFL franchises. These are post industrial cities that largely have supported their teams. But if you were to start from scratch, the only city in this group I might put a team in would be Cincinnati, largely because of the presence of a strong banking community and Procter & Gamble. New Orleans is a relatively small metro area that, if I was starting from scratch, I'd probably look elsewhere. Portland, with Nike and strong demographics, ordinarily would be a good location. But is it big enough and is the city stable enough to support an NFL team.

Of the definitely nots, the one that's going to get me in trouble is Green Bay. And, that includes Milwaukee. The state is an incredible supporter of the Packers, like Pittsburgh and the Steelers. But, it's just too small and Milwaukee has significant racial and dying industry problems. The shrinkage in the city and slow growth in the suburbs is telling and would not be a place I'd want to start from scratch. Ditto for Buffalo -- which, if starting from scratch, would be in Toronto. Baltimore, Memphis, St. Louis and even Jacksonville are slow growth markets with a changing economic base.

In short, if the NFL were starting today, there would be a whole lot fewer Midwest teams. The focus would be on high-growth communities that are strong and growing media markets.

Though provoking analysis.

Detroit would not be a surprise to me. Still the 14th Largest SMA and as you point out still  lots of business there . Also a great sports town.

I think you may be a bit unnecessarily bearish on Pittsburgh. It is 27th SMSA. There is significant wealth there and the city is no longer urban grit. Throw in the history of football loving people in Western PA and it would be a lock.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The fact that Mpls/St Paul is the 16th largest MSA in the US, and are a "maybe" under dgies list, and considered a small market MLB city is just sad.

[dgies9156]

The fact that Mpls/St Paul is the 16th largest MSA in the US, and are a "maybe" under dgies list, and considered a small market MLB city is just sad.

Brother Ziggy:

Interesting thought. What's really fascinating is imagining the same calculation for major league baseball. If MLB were started today, I would guess only six cities would be "locks" for an MLB team. These are cities that would support a team come what may and that an owner probably could make money -- though given the historical stupidity of MLB owners who the heck knows!

This is very different than the NFL!

Five of the six "locks" are cities one would expect: New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston and San Francisco. With 81 home games a year, there's strong enough interest, cash flow to pay free agents. All have such good potential corporate sponsorship that a team would have to be pretty stupid to lose money in any of these communities. Of course, there's always Frank McCort!

The sixth market is St. Louis. I'm not sure what it is about baseball and St. Louis, but this "small market" has supported the Cardinals about as well as it possibly could. The Cardinals are in that city's and the region's DNA. The only question would be if MLB started today, would anyone see that?

The open question about "lock" markets is whether the seventh market would be Brooklyn, as distinct from the rest of New York City. When they had the Dodgers, it was a different era, but Brooklyn was as rabid about baseball as St. Louis fans were -- maybe more so. With Brooklyn becoming gentrified, it's interesting to imagine what would have happened if Walter O'Malley and Robert Moses could have settled the stadium issue back in 1955 and 1956.

17 of the potential markets for MLB would fall into either Probable or Maybe Not (including two of three major Canadian cities). Minnesota and Milwaukee both would fall into "maybe not" in this estimation due to their fair weather fandom. Both draw well when the team is good but historically have not drawn especially well when the team is mediocre or bad. Plus, I'm not forgetting the Selig/Pohlad contraction effort more than a decade ago.

In Minnesota's case, I also think the state blew it when they didn't at least put a retractable dome on Target Field.

The remaining group of nine existing, former and wishful MLB cities fall into "Not". This includes all of the major Florida cities, which is amazing since if Miami had a decent ownership, it would have to be a "lock." Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland fall into this group, with the only surprise being Baltimore. Perhaps if the Orioles were any good, this would change.

It's amazing how excessive inventory, bad management and community indifference changes the location question!

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I really don’t think you have a thorough understanding of markets and how teams make money these days.

[Herman Cain]

Gronk doubtful for Bucs Patriots . Would have been fun to see him against his former organization . Jason Pierre Paul also out for Bucs.

This may end up being a close game

[dgies9156]

I really don’t think you have a thorough understanding of markets and how teams make money these days.

Brother Fluff:

They make money primarily off television.

The difference between the NFL and MLB is that in the former, almost all TV revenue is negotiated by the League Office. While MLB has moved toward that model, there's no where near the coordination and revenue sharing in MLB that there is in the NFL. Pete Rozelle was a genius for forcing that model.

Secondly, one of the reasons that JerryWorld exists in Dallas and Kronkeland exists in LA is that TV revenue is split equally among NFL franchises, whether you're in Green Bay or New York (who would have thought the NFL was a bunch of socialists). Jerry Jones figured out very early on that stadium revenue, which is kept by the franchise, separates great from ordinary NFL franchises. The Bears have finally awoken to that reality with their proposed Arlington Heights move. Jones made a product that competes with the official sponsor of the NFL the Official Whatever of the Dallas Cowboys. Since the Cowboys were and are one of the most valuable franchises in the NFL, the sponsors took notice. Now, you have the Official Personal Healthcare Product of the Carolina Panthers (LOL, sorry Brother MU).

It's evident that the successful franchises in MLB (except St. Louis) are those in massive television markets that also can put three million or more annually into their stadiums. You have to have both to consistently succeed, unless you're the Cardinals. And even the Cardinals probably don't make money unless they make the playoffs. And, of course, there's the tax treatment of baseball losses and long-term capital gains treatment on sale (which historically has been where most MLB owners made their money).

The NFL realistically has about 10 preeminent franchises. MLB really has about four -- the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers. The NFL's include small market Green Bay, which has figured out how to feast off big-market television revenue while maximizing small market stadium and ancillary revenue. Quite frankly, Green Bay is a bit of an outlier. The closest thing to Green Bay in MLB might be Kansas City or Milwaukee. If MLB started today, do you think either would get a team?

Not on your life or mine!

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The Milwaukee Brewers are plenty successful.  The margin for error is clearly smaller, but they win and turn a profit doing so.

You are way overthinking this.

[shoothoops]

Oh yeah, no team is going to take over Soldier Field.

If the Bears utilize Legends Hospitality to sell PSL's and work through concessions, then you'll get near 100% commitment from fellow NFL owners. Jerry Jones would ensure that happens.

Does it expand the league's footprint? An expansion team would, but I don't think the Chicago market would work for an expansion team. Outside of Austin/San Antonio, I'm not sure where else in the US the NFL can go. We know it's not St. Louis or San Diego. It really comes down to where the money is more than anything else. Is the value of a current NFL franchise worth more as a secondary team in Chicago than in their current home market?

The league's footprint is going to be expanded simply by creating more inventory. A move to 36 teams creates more inventory. How they rearrange things with expansion and markets of course matters, but having a brand new privately financed 80,000 seat stadium in the third largest media market would certainly help the NFL figure that out.

The NFL has its hands full with St. Louis. It hasn’t been covered much nationally, but for the past 5 years there has been a lawsuit of Stl vs Kroenke/NFL. St. Louis has won every legal decision during that time. (Trial is January 2022). It’s a multi billion dollar trial. (Ben Frederickson has covered it for 5 years. To a lesser extent Seth Wickersham at ESPN. Ben Fischer recently discovered it. Pro Football Talk. Obviously the media outlets that do business with the NFL haven’t covered it. NFL Network’s new home is at Kroenke’s new stadium after all.)

Some of the information, recordings, emails, texts, and 42 depositions have been eye opening for some, unsurprising for others. Kroenke, Demoff, Grubman, Gooddell, Jones, the relocation committee.

Apparently, the court system frowns upon breaking your own rules and making them up as you go.

Currently there is a running fine meter of the owners for not turning over financial information by deadline. It includes all personal financial statements of the past 3 years, personal federal income tax returns for the past 3 years, sworn statement confirming net worth, etc…(Kroenke, Kraft, Richardson, Hunt, Mara, Jones). and that’s just for the punitive damages part of the case. $$$.

Lots of popcorn eating court drama and legal document reading. Some bad people have been getting exposed in court.

Some have discussed the NFL offering St. Louis a team to make it go away. Not sure that would happen. Some have suggested The Stl would rather have the money, and a settlement would have to start with a B.

January will be here soon. We’ll see.
 

[dgies9156]

The NFL has its hands full with St. Louis. It hasn’t been covered much nationally, but for the past 5 years there has been a lawsuit of Stl vs Kroenke/NFL. St. Louis has won every legal decision during that time. (Trial is January 2022). It’s a multi billion dollar trial. (Ben Frederickson has covered it for 5 years. To a lesser extent Seth Wickersham at ESPN. Ben Fischer recently discovered it. Pro Football Talk. Obviously the media outlets that do business with the NFL haven’t covered it. NFL Network’s new home is at Kroenke’s new stadium after all.)

Some of the information, recordings, emails, texts, and 42 depositions have been eye opening for some, unsurprising for others. Kroenke, Demoff, Grubman, Gooddell, Jones, the relocation committee.

Apparently, the court system frowns upon breaking your own rules and making them up as you go.

Currently there is a running fine meter of the owners for not turning over financial information by deadline. It includes all personal financial statements of the past 3 years, personal federal income tax returns for the past 3 years, sworn statement confirming net worth, etc…(Kroenke, Kraft, Richardson, Hunt, Mara, Jones). and that’s just for the punitive damages part of the case. $$$.

Lots of popcorn eating court drama and legal document reading. Some bad people have been getting exposed in court.

Some have discussed the NFL offering St. Louis a team to make it go away. Not sure that would happen. Some have suggested The Stl would rather have the money, and a settlement would have to start with a B.

January will be here soon. We’ll see.

Brother Hoops,

You aint kidding. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Were St. Louis to get a team, the rules are different today and its much tougher to move. Plus, there's no obvious choice on where to move. LA is gone and the NFL has been shrewd in getting to higher growth, opportunistic cities.

There's always Orlando, Portland and San Antonio -- and San Juan -- but these cities are a far cry from Los Angeles. Or even San Diego for that matter.

The lawsuit will be fascinating and it will be interesting to see what happens when GAAP-based financial statements get turned over to the courts. I can hardly wait to see the McCaskeys!

[shoothoops]

Brother Hoops,

You aint kidding. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Were St. Louis to get a team, the rules are different today and its much tougher to move. Plus, there's no obvious choice on where to move. LA is gone and the NFL has been shrewd in getting to higher growth, opportunistic cities.

There's always Orlando, Portland and San Antonio -- and San Juan -- but these cities are a far cry from Los Angeles. Or even San Diego for that matter.

The lawsuit will be fascinating and it will be interesting to see what happens when GAAP-based financial statements get turned over to the courts. I can hardly wait to see the McCaskeys!

Working backwards, you won’t get to see the financials of any owner other than Kroenke and the six I mentioned that were on the relocation committee. That’s all the judge would approve. (Stl tried for everyone)

Kroenke only cares about moving up the the Billionaire lists. Little else interests him or fazes him. The one thing that does bother him is whenever someone says he married into wealth and that he is not a self made man. That is the one thing that sets him off. Otherwise he is ruthless Silent Stan. Instead of donating the former practice facility to a kids group who was using it, he fought tooth and nail in court for it instead.

I think people there wish he would have sold to Khan. When Georgia Frontiere died her kids wanted to sell their 60% of the team. (not sports people). Kroenke owned 40% and he had first right of refusal. Kroenke entered an agreement with Shahid Khan, now owner of Jacksonville Jaguars, Fulham FC…etc..to sell his 40% to Khan who would buy the 100% of the team. Kroenke waited until the last minute, last day, to say he was buying the team, which surprised Khan. Kroenke had first right of refusal to buy 100% of the team.

From Day 1 Kroenke’s plan was to move the team to L.A. where he could maximize his money, and where he would build a privately funded stadium, one he wouldn’t do in Stl. Lots and lots of documentation of this. Khan faced lots of racism and discrimination but he eventually landed the Jaguars, and he brought several St. Louis people with him. (there are only 32 teams so you don’t get to pick and choose markets). Mark Lamping, former President of the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team became their team President, Jimmy Woodcock, Marketing/PR VP formerly of the St. Louis Blues etc went with Khan to Jacksonville.

Supporting a team was never their issue. (They even led the XFL in attendance) A bit of bad luck to get Bill Bidwill and Stan Kroenke as two different team owners.

Kroenke has been to court with every single business partner he has ever had. So this won’t be any different for him. But the stakes are pretty high this time. They tried and tried to stall and run out the clock for several years. It didn’t work. They are still trying. Pandemic pushed the trial back a bit. But they have run out of motions, and January is the trial in St. Louis.

[Uncle Rico]

You can probably accelerate the Urban headache out of Jacksonville

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

You can probably accelerate the Urban headache out of Jacksonville

Uh….wow.

[Uncle Rico]

Uh….wow.

FWIW, his exit out of Florida was heavily rumored to include relationships with co-eds.

[JWags85]

FWIW, his exit out of Florida was heavily rumored to include relationships with co-eds.

From people who know, it wasnt rumored, it was pretty much stone cold truth.  Whether that was the key reason for leaving is up for debate and unlikely, but the instances of it happening were more than just simple internet rumor and speculation.  It was with co-eds and younger females in the athletic department.

The best part is the videos and pictures are at a steakhouse with his name on it.

[GB Warrior]

Guys'll do anything to not coach Jacksonville

[Jockey]

Brother Ziggy:

Interesting thought. What's really fascinating is imagining the same calculation for major league baseball. If MLB were started today, I would guess only six cities would be "locks" for an MLB team.

I’m sorry, dries. I don’t get your point. The majority of stuff in the world would be different if they were re-started today. It would be one boring, generic mess dictated by empty suits.

The character of  the NFL or MLB would be completely gone.

[Herman Cain]

Interesting takes from Steven A and Tim Tebow on Urban Meyer. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BDMV6SMT4Y