Realistic tourney chances

[THEbig0]

Okay, I know this has been discussed but starting a specific threat.  Someone smarter than me can breakdown what our realistic chances are. I put some scenarios below and filled in the only obvious one!  Okay..maybe the few obvious ones.  Probably missed some scearios too.

Win BET Tourney:  Locked in
Win Out and 3 Games at BET
Win Out and 2 Games at BET: :
Win Out and 1 BET Game:  :
2-3 and 3 Games at BEG:
2-3 (loss to Xavier) and 2 Games at BEG:
2-3 (loss to UCONN) and 2 Games at BEG:
Anything Else: Out

[muwarrior97]

Slim to none....


BET Chip is only path

[Dr. Blackheart]

2% chance of winning the BET

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conference-tournaments/big-east-bracket/

[cheese ball chaser]

If you use this tool to run some Win/Loss simulations, not likely even if we win our regular season and win 1 BET game: https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank=63&team=Marquette

In that scenario, we would still only be the 11st best "First Teams Out."

[brewcity77]

Slim to none....


BET Chip is only path

The former is true, the latter is not.

If you use this tool to run some Win/Loss simulations, not likely even if we win our regular season and win 1 BET game: https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank=63&team=Marquette

In that scenario, we would still only be the 11st best "First Teams Out."

That tool, even more than Cristal Bowel, should be used for entertainment purposes only.

[Uncle Rico]

The former is true, the latter is not.

That tool, even more than Cristal Bowel, should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Crystal Ball is never wrong

[cheebs09]

I think this year will be the toughest to predict. With all the goofy schedules and pauses, it's tough to determine what the criteria the committee will be focusing on is.

Also, I think the NET is a little more jumbled this year than normal. Brewcity77 has pointed out Colgate a few times as being a major outlier.

[drewm88]

To make it as simple as possible, seems like we need minimum 5 more wins just to be in the at-large conversation.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think winning out and losing in the BET finals gets us in for sure (but might as well win the whole thing at that point)

I think winning out and losing in the BET semis gives us a chance. Depends on the rest of the bubble. Adding a win vs. Georgetown would help.

I think losing any remaining regular season games means we have to win the BET...unless we somehow knock off Nova in the BET, then maybe losing in the finals would be enough.

I think those are the only scenarios that get us in. They are all LONG shots. Wojo has been given the gift of opportunity. It's the chance to prove that he can have a team playing its best ball at the end of the season rather than the beginning of it. Unfortunately, I think we fall short.

[The Sultan]

Crystal Ball is never wrong

It's not that the Crystal Ball is never wrong, but that the CB dictates the ways and actions of the entire universe.  And in those instances that it appears "wrong" it is actually right in such a way that our measly brains cannot comprehend.

[JakeBarnes]

If Vlad Jr. can lose 42 lbs, anything is possible.

[Silkk the Shaka]

If you use this tool to run some Win/Loss simulations, not likely even if we win our regular season and win 1 BET game: https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank=63&team=Marquette

In that scenario, we would still only be the 11st best "First Teams Out."

It also has us as 1st team out if we win out then make a BET championship game run & lose to Nova. So... there's a decent chance I'd say (if that scenario played out obviously)

[Uncle Rico]

If Vlad Jr. can lose 42 lbs, anything is possible.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

[brewcity77]

It also has us as 1st team out if we win out then make a BET championship game run & lose to Nova. So... there's a decent chance I'd say (if that scenario played out obviously)

I now know how Jay Bee always felt.

[Warrior of Law]

A strong finish in the last 3 conference games and BET could ignite NIT hopes.  While the NIT is being paired down to 16 teams playing in NYC, the conference winner requirement has been dropped.

https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/report-nit-plans-to-move-forward-with-2021-tournament/

So, for fun I will say 4 wins gets NIT. 5+ wins gets NCAA.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think winning out and losing in the BET finals gets us in for sure (but might as well win the whole thing at that point)

I think winning out and losing in the BET semis gives us a chance. Depends on the rest of the bubble. Adding a win vs. Georgetown would help.

I think losing any remaining regular season games means we have to win the BET...unless we somehow knock off Nova in the BET, then maybe losing in the finals would be enough.

I think those are the only scenarios that get us in. They are all LONG shots. Wojo has been given the gift of opportunity. It's the chance to prove that he can have a team playing its best ball at the end of the season rather than the beginning of it. Unfortunately, I think we fall short.

This pretty much sums it up IMO.

Only real path is win out the regular season (with or without a Gtown make up), and then win a game or two in BET.  I think they're for sure in as one of the hottest teams in the country if they win their final 3 BE games and their first 2 in the BET before falling in the final.  Do the same but fall in semis, I still think there is a chance but I wouldn't bet much $ on it. 

Realistically, its all long odds but just keep winning.   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This pretty much sums it up IMO.

Only real path is win out the regular season (with or without a Gtown make up), and then win a game or two in BET.  I think they're for sure in as one of the hottest teams in the country if they win their final 3 BE games and their first 2 in the BET before falling in the final.  Do the same but fall in semis, I still think there is a chance but I wouldn't bet much $ on it. 

Realistically, its all long odds but just keep winning.   

One note, my calculations assume we finish 6th or worse in the BET. Meaning we would need to win 2 games to make the semis or 3 games to make the finals. There's a path for us to get to 5th, but I don't see it happening.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I now know how Jay Bee always felt.

Ha I get it... just a decent finger in the air litmus test, not using it as an exact line of demarcation. I view that hypothetical as saying we have a good chance on a win-out + BET championship appearance. Not taking it as gospel on the exact position.

the Crystal Ball, on the other hand, is always right.

[wisblue]

I think winning out and losing in the BET finals gets us in for sure (but might as well win the whole thing at that point)

I think winning out and losing in the BET semis gives us a chance. Depends on the rest of the bubble. Adding a win vs. Georgetown would help.

I think losing any remaining regular season games means we have to win the BET...unless we somehow knock off Nova in the BET, then maybe losing in the finals would be enough.

I think those are the only scenarios that get us in. They are all LONG shots. Wojo has been given the gift of opportunity. It's the chance to prove that he can have a team playing its best ball at the end of the season rather than the beginning of it. Unfortunately, I think we fall short.

I generally agree with this, except that I would leave out the "for sure" part if MU wins out and loses in the BET title game. Before the UNC game was scheduled I thought that MU's only path was to win the BET. But adding that Quad 1 win does open up some other possibilities.

I also agree that this season is harder to project because of the absence of many OOC games. But, all of the Big East teams are going to be hurt by the fact that the conference is relatively weak this year. A 9-10 record in the fifth rated conference isn't too impressive.

[brewcity77]

I think winning out and losing in the BET finals gets us in for sure (but might as well win the whole thing at that point)

I think winning out and losing in the BET semis gives us a chance. Depends on the rest of the bubble. Adding a win vs. Georgetown would help.

I think losing any remaining regular season games means we have to win the BET...unless we somehow knock off Nova in the BET, then maybe losing in the finals would be enough.

I think those are the only scenarios that get us in. They are all LONG shots. Wojo has been given the gift of opportunity. It's the chance to prove that he can have a team playing its best ball at the end of the season rather than the beginning of it. Unfortunately, I think we fall short.

I tend to agree with all this. If we beat UConn, I'll likely do a deeper dive on the possibilities.

[Galway Eagle]

This reminds me of 2018 when we had everything going our way for the tournament bid, right teams losing and us winning like crazy till we fell flat against Depaul.

If I were a betting man I'd guess the  same thing happens again.

[#UnleashSean]

Win BET Tourney:  Locked in
Win Out and 3 Games at BET: bubble
Win Out and 2 Games at BET: last out
Win Out and 1 BET Game:  out
2-3 and 3 Games at BEG: bye
2-3 (loss to Xavier) and 2 Games at BEG: bye
2-3 (loss to UCONN) and 2 Games at BEG: bye
Anything Else: Out

[Farley36]

Since a worthwhile question like this deserves an equally worthwhile answer I will say we're already a lock.  We beat UNC on the road.  Can't wait to see Wojo's coaching magic in the Final Four. 

[Viper]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

MU in the tourney? its a crazy world. I mean, Mr Potato Head is now gender neutral. I guess anything is possible.

[cheebs09]

I now know how Jay Bee always felt.

Lonely?