OT: 2021 Coaching Carousel

[Silkk the Shaka]

Didn't he bone a very nubile Tatum O'Neal?

https://bfy.tw/QiDA

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Who then changed teams!?!

[MUDPT]

Uhhh, no. Wrong. Incorrect. No go. Denied.

It was actually 19 seconds left when Bailey fouled, but the shot clock was turned off. Tie game, Baldwin went to the line and split a pair. Howard missed a potential game-winning three, MU fouled Baldwin again with 8 seconds left (that was the under 10 seconds, but correct to give foul) and he put Butler up 3, then McEwen hit the game winner at the buzzer.

Not that it matters much, it was a dumb decision regardless, but clearly a mistake on Wojo's part because he didn't know the score.

In the words of John McEnroe, you cannot be serious.

Check out the charts here:  https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/ 

Marquette had a 28% chance of winning the game before it started.  It was the 8th team foul (1 and 1), so you generally foul an under 70% FT shooter with the game tied and the shot clock off.  Butler had Baldwin, Tucker, and McDermott on the floor not to foul.  Baddely and Nze were also on the floor to foul. 

I tried to plug in the situations to Barttorvik's win probability calculator, but it doesn't take in to account who has the ball.  Interestingly, Marquette has a better chance of winning the game down 69-68 then with the game tied at 68, if you look at the Win Probability Chart on kenpom.  Jordan Sperber (who some on here want as an assistant coach) had Todd Golden on his podcast, a couple of weeks after this game and both mentioned it was the right strategy.

Wojo had no idea what he was doing in this situation.  But there will come a time in the next couple of seasons, where the game will be tied or MU will be up 2 late and there should be strategies where bad free throw shooters are identified on the other team.  These guys should be fouled.  Wojo never took the time to look at these things to squeeze out every extra advantage. 

[The Sultan]

Check out the charts here:  https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/ 

Marquette had a 28% chance of winning the game before it started.  It was the 8th team foul (1 and 1), so you generally foul an under 70% FT shooter with the game tied and the shot clock off. 

I have never seen someone intentionally foul a player in that situation. Unless they forget the score.

[panda]

Check out the charts here:  https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/ 

Marquette had a 28% chance of winning the game before it started.  It was the 8th team foul (1 and 1), so you generally foul an under 70% FT shooter with the game tied and the shot clock off.  Butler had Baldwin, Tucker, and McDermott on the floor not to foul.  Baddely and Nze were also on the floor to foul. 

I tried to plug in the situations to Barttorvik's win probability calculator, but it doesn't take in to account who has the ball.  Interestingly, Marquette has a better chance of winning the game down 69-68 then with the game tied at 68, if you look at the Win Probability Chart on kenpom.  Jordan Sperber (who some on here want as an assistant coach) had Todd Golden on his podcast, a couple of weeks after this game and both mentioned it was the right strategy.

Wojo had no idea what he was doing in this situation.  But there will come a time in the next couple of seasons, where the game will be tied or MU will be up 2 late and there should be strategies where bad free throw shooters are identified on the other team.  These guys should be fouled.  Wojo never took the time to look at these things to squeeze out every extra advantage.

When has anyone else ever intentionally fouled in a tie game last possession situation?

[panda]

I have never seen someone intentionally foul a player in that situation. Unless they forget the score.

Exactly - Didn't mean to repeat exactly what you said above, but the explanation from MUDPT triggered me ;-)

[bilsu]

Check out the charts here:  https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/ 

Marquette had a 28% chance of winning the game before it started.  It was the 8th team foul (1 and 1), so you generally foul an under 70% FT shooter with the game tied and the shot clock off.  Butler had Baldwin, Tucker, and McDermott on the floor not to foul.  Baddely and Nze were also on the floor to foul. 

I tried to plug in the situations to Barttorvik's win probability calculator, but it doesn't take in to account who has the ball.  Interestingly, Marquette has a better chance of winning the game down 69-68 then with the game tied at 68, if you look at the Win Probability Chart on kenpom.  Jordan Sperber (who some on here want as an assistant coach) had Todd Golden on his podcast, a couple of weeks after this game and both mentioned it was the right strategy.

Wojo had no idea what he was doing in this situation.  But there will come a time in the next couple of seasons, where the game will be tied or MU will be up 2 late and there should be strategies where bad free throw shooters are identified on the other team.  These guys should be fouled.  Wojo never took the time to look at these things to squeeze out every extra advantage.

I am not saying we should of fouled, but I believe we would of lost if we let Butler take the last shot. The Butler player had just scored something like 19 straight points. We had no way of stopping him, if it went down to the last shot. On the flip side Markus missed the shot that would of put us up. I do not think Markus made a clutch game winning shot his whole career.

[keefe]

Wojo loved this job, his players, & the university. I don't see why it's hard to understand why he'd still be coming to terms with everything & figuring out next steps in his overall life. He worked his arse off & the job consumed, very likely, 70, 80, 90+ hours/week for years.

Himself aside, he has a family that he moved across the country.

That he doesn't have a job 3 weeks later is not some kind of obvious sign of anything... Any of you guys ever wish you devoted more time to your kids? Would you have done so, perhaps, if you had less of a concern with money?

I think we should all hang our heads in shame for mocking a dude who by all accounts is simply not very bright.

Criticizing a guy who was paid millions of dollars to coach basketball for being both stupid and incompetent is inexcusable. For the love of God, this poor man's lack of intelligence and improbable ineptitude should not be a source of humor to us.

We are better than this.     

[willie warrior]

I think we should all hang our heads in shame for mocking a dude who by all accounts is simply not very bright.

Criticizing a guy who was paid millions of dollars to coach basketball for being both stupid and incompetent is inexcusable. For the love of God, this poor man's lack of intelligence and improbable ineptitude should not be a source of humor to us.

We are better than this.     

Because after all, he learned all those over 15 plus years  on Ks knee. So he should be excused for his lack of performance because he only cashed in about 20 million zoidees while at MU

[BM1090]

It was actually 19 seconds left when Bailey fouled, but the shot clock was turned off. Tie game, Baldwin went to the line and split a pair. Howard missed a potential game-winning three, MU fouled Baldwin again with 8 seconds left (that was the under 10 seconds, but correct to give foul) and he put Butler up 3, then McEwen hit the game winner at the buzzer.

Not that it matters much, it was a dumb decision regardless, but clearly a mistake on Wojo's part because he didn't know the score.

I actually dont mind the strategy of fouling there, especially if you are the lesser team. If you don't foul the best case is OT. If you foul you have a shot to win.

https://kenpom.com/blog/category/strategy/

But that wasn't the case in this scenario. Wojo clearly messed up and admitted it.

[keefe]

But that wasn't the case in this scenario. Wojo clearly messed up and admitted it.

Let's face it: Wojo stepped in a steaming pile. There is no denying BM.

[MUDPT]

When has anyone else ever intentionally fouled in a tie game last possession situation?

Click on the link.

[panda]

Click on the link.

I did and I'm surprised you're using that example as it explicitly says to foul a poor free throw shooter. What was Baldwin's free throw percentage that season?

Also another question - How many coaches admit they screwed up in the post game interview after that situation? If he meant to do it, wouldn't he come out and say it?

Also also - I have a very hard time believing the coach who ignored even the most obvious of the advanced stats would, just one time, buy into a strategy like that.

[The Sultan]

I did and I'm surprised you're using that example as it explicitly says to foul a poor free throw shooter. What was Baldwin's free throw percentage that season?

Also another question - How many coaches admit they screwed up in the post game interview after that situation? If he meant to do it, wouldn't he come out and say it?

Also also - I have a very hard time believing the coach who ignored even the most obvious of the advanced stats would, just one time, buy into a strategy like that.

He never said that Wojo intentionally followed that strategy.  Just that it would be a good strategy to follow in certain circumstances.

[Lennys Tap]

I actually dont mind the strategy of fouling there, especially if you are the lesser team. If you don't foul the best case is OT. If you foul you have a shot to win.

https://kenpom.com/blog/category/strategy/

But that wasn't the case in this scenario. Wojo clearly messed up and admitted it.

If you don't foul the best case scenario is OT? How about a live ball TO that gives us the winning basket? An offensive foul that gives us the ball out of bounds with a chance to win in regulation? A tie up that gives us possession and a chance to win? A missed shot by them followed by an over the back foul that gives us a chance to win it at the free throw line? Etc., etc.

This was no "strategy" by Wojo. He wasn't fouling some 40% FT shooter to put him in a one and one situation. He was giving their best player (and I think their best FT shooter) 2 FTs in a tie game with 10 seconds left - and he was doing it intentionally. The guy just didn't know the freakin' score.

[The Sultan]

If you don't foul the best case scenario is OT? How about a live ball TO that gives us the winning basket? An offensive foul that gives us the ball out of bounds with a chance to win in regulation? A tie up that gives us possession and a chance to win? A missed shot by them followed by an over the back foul that gives us a chance to win it at the free throw line? Etc., etc.

This was no "strategy" by Wojo. He wasn't fouling some 40% FT shooter to put him in a one and one situation. He was giving their best player (and I think their best FT shooter) 2 FTs in a tie game with 10 seconds left - and he was doing it intentionally. The guy just didn't know the freakin' score.

Oh FFS.  Everyone knows Wojo didn't do this intentionally.  No one things that Wojo was suddenly channeling advanced metrics.  Everyone knows he forgot the score.

That being said, the math does say that fouling in a one on one situation MAY make sense especially if one team is a huge underdog and five more minutes of basketball may be considered too much.  (For instance, if the underdog also has foul issues.)

But I think it just kind of goes against a coaches ethos.  You stand up and play defense and one of the things you mention in the first paragraph may actually happen.  Fouling there seems like you are throwing up a white flag an possibly sending the wrong message to your team.  "I know we have battled to a tie for forty minutes, but I don't think you're going to be able to defend here or win in overtime."

I can see the strategy be used in certain circumstances but it would be rare IMO.

[jesmu84]

Oh FFS.  Everyone knows Wojo didn't do this intentionally.  No one things that Wojo was suddenly channeling advanced metrics.  Everyone knows he forgot the score.

That being said, the math does say that fouling in a one on one situation MAY make sense especially if one team is a huge underdog and five more minutes of basketball may be considered too much.  (For instance, if the underdog also has foul issues.)

But I think it just kind of goes against a coaches ethos.  You stand up and play defense and one of the things you mention in the first paragraph may actually happen.  Fouling there seems like you are throwing up a white flag an possibly sending the wrong message to your team.  "I know we have battled to a tie for forty minutes, but I don't think you're going to be able to defend here or win in overtime."

I can see the strategy be used in certain circumstances but it would be rare IMO.

So, similar to the arguments about going on 4th down vs punting and your defense needs a stop

[panda]

Oh FFS.  Everyone knows Wojo didn't do this intentionally.  No one things that Wojo was suddenly channeling advanced metrics.  Everyone knows he forgot the score.

That being said, the math does say that fouling in a one on one situation MAY make sense especially if one team is a huge underdog and five more minutes of basketball may be considered too much.  (For instance, if the underdog also has foul issues.)

But I think it just kind of goes against a coaches ethos.  You stand up and play defense and one of the things you mention in the first paragraph may actually happen.  Fouling there seems like you are throwing up a white flag an possibly sending the wrong message to your team.  "I know we have battled to a tie for forty minutes, but I don't think you're going to be able to defend here or win in overtime."

I can see the strategy be used in certain circumstances but it would be rare IMO.

This is the bizzaro world discussion of fouling up 3.

Play defense unless there's like 20 seconds or more left on the clock and a really, really bad FT shooter on the floor you can foul.

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

This is the bizzaro world discussion of fouling up 3.

Play defense unless there's like 20 seconds or more left on the clock and a really, really bad FT shooter on the floor you can foul.

Or just don't let one of the worst offensive teams in the Big East light you up running the same play over and over.  Double teaming should have been the priority since Butler had no one else that presented much of a threat to score.  The lack of in game adjustments is hilarious.  Worst coach ever at MU.  Wojo couldn't get an X and an O out of an Ox. 

[keefe]

Everyone knows Wojo didn't do this intentionally.  Everyone knows he forgot the score.

Fact is he did it because he lost Situational Awareness. And that is inexcusable.

Wojo is improbably incompetent which is why no relevant college program will consider him for a head coaching job.

Good riddance.

[MUDPT]

I did and I'm surprised you're using that example as it explicitly says to foul a poor free throw shooter. What was Baldwin's free throw percentage that season?

Also another question - How many coaches admit they screwed up in the post game interview after that situation? If he meant to do it, wouldn't he come out and say it?

Also also - I have a very hard time believing the coach who ignored even the most obvious of the advanced stats would, just one time, buy into a strategy like that.

I said in two different posts that they fouled the wrong guy.

[keefe]

I said in two different posts that they fouled the wrong guy.

Tactical: Wojo fouled the wrong guy

Strategic: Marquette hired the wrong guy

[shoothoops]

Kevin Ollie has been named Head Coach and Director of Player Development for OTE, Overtime Elite Basketball.

It's a new professional basketball league for 16-18 year olds. $100k guarantee pay plus health benefits, and academic tutoring. $100k tuition reimbursement if they do mot choose professional route. Revenue sharing, name, image, likeness, NFT's,.trading cards, jerseys etc..

Dan Porter is CEO. Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant are among the investors.

Brandon Williams is VP Head of Basketball Operationat.

VC Firm Andreesen and Horowitz are investors.

There will be approx. 40 person staff.

[Uncle Rico]

Kevin Ollie has been named Head Coach and Director of Player Development for OTE, Overtime Elite Basketball.

It's a new professional basketball league for 16-18 year olds. $100k guarantee pay plus health benefits, and academic tutoring. $100k tuition reimbursement if they do mot choose professional route. Revenue sharing, name, image, likeness, NFT's,.trading cards, jerseys etc..

Dan Porter is CEO. Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant are among the investors.

Brandon Williams is VP Head of Basketball Operationat.

VC Firm Andreesen and Horowitz are investors.

There will be approx. 40 person staff.

Will be interested to see if other things like this pop up

[Galway Eagle]

Kevin Ollie has been named Head Coach and Director of Player Development for OTE, Overtime Elite Basketball.

It's a new professional basketball league for 16-18 year olds. $100k guarantee pay plus health benefits, and academic tutoring. $100k tuition reimbursement if they do mot choose professional route. Revenue sharing, name, image, likeness, NFT's,.trading cards, jerseys etc..

Dan Porter is CEO. Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant are among the investors.

Brandon Williams is VP Head of Basketball Operationat.

VC Firm Andreesen and Horowitz are investors.

There will be approx. 40 person staff.

I do not know how they honestly expect this league to be profitable that sounds like a lot of overhead cost for a league that thinks professional teens will bring viewers.