The Lost Season

[shoothoops]

Wojo had MU in the NCAA Tournament in year 3 and was a 5 seed and alone in 2nd in the Big East in year 5.

Yep, and, this is in part why he kept his job without problem. What he hasn't done is keep it going/improve upon that after year 5. The next two seasons they've gone the other direction.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It can take some time. Jay Wright and Mike Krzyzewski made the NCAA's in year four at Villanova and Duke.

Beilein had Michigan in NCAA's year two. And in season four onward, rolling.

Tony Bennett had UVA in NCAA's in season three, rolling annually year five onward.

Mick Cronin the Cincy version is a good example of taking more time to get it going. (Not the UCLA version which is happening quickly)

I don't think the 10 seeds that Beilein and Bennett earned in years 2 and 3 were any better than the 10 seed earned by Wojo in year 3. It took them both more than pandas "2 or 3 years" to get things going. I'd say it took Beilein 4 and Bennett 5. Which is fine.

[Silent Verbal]

You are very concerned about this. Go ahead and read some other threads,  you'll find your answer.

Gotcha.  Welcome to the suck.

[panda]

John Beilein, Mick Cronin,  Tony Bennett, Fran Mccaffery, and Kevin Willard would like a word with you.

Interesting -

I'm assuming the names you mentioned are not referencing their first or second stops so I'll just mention their big time jobs, even though Beilein won at stops before WV, Cronin was very successful at Murray State, Bennett did the impossible and won at Washington State, Mccaffrey was very successful at three stops before Iowa. Willard is the outlier.

Beilein was successful at WVA following a dumpster fire for several years within the program. He made a deep run into the tournament year three and followed it up with another run year four. He then went onto Michigan and we know how he did there.

It took Cronin five years, but he went on to make the tournament nine straight years. Consistency.

Bennett went to UVA after an extremely successful stint at a difficult place to win in WSU and made the tournament in year three. The previous two coaches, one being our old friend Dave Leito, had only been to the tournament twice in eleven seasons. He turned UVA around getting them to the tournament quickly. He missed the tournament the following season, but winning the previous year probably quelled some of the frustrations. The fifth season we to saw the Virginia everyone is familiar with today.

Your last two are interesting cases.

Mccaffrey had a ton of success at Siena and then made the tournament at both Lehigh and UNCG. He would've seemed to be a slam dunk hire for Iowa, but has only seen mixed results. He's having his best season this year but has never really taken the next step.

Willard had zero success at Iona before getting hired at Seton Hall and seems to be getting it together now. I sense some nepotism in both the Iona and Seton Hall hiring process if you catch my drift.

So to clarify, when I laid out my timeline, it was not championships by year three. It's steady improvement with tangible growth points. The majority of the above names fit into that criteria.

[shoothoops]

I don't think the 10 seeds that Beilein and Bennett earned in years 2 and 3 were any better than the 10 seed earned by Wojo in year 3. It took them both more than pandas "2 or 3 years" to get things going. I'd say it took Beilein 4 and Bennett 5. Which is fine.

Bennett and Beilein both made the NCAA's once in the their first three seasons. Wojo did as well. This matters, perhaps more to me than you. Not sure. It's a sign of progress. Checks a box. It gives you a nice appetizer at dinner, perhaps a Baltimore Crab Crake if you will. Full credit Wojo for showing something in year three. It's something to point to while taking another season or two to get to almost annual success. Later, an NCAA 5 seed gets full credit as well a few years ago.

Bennett of course went on to win 7 NCAA games in those first seven seasons, as well as two ACC Regular Season Titles.

Beilein of course also went on to win 7 NCAA games in his first seven seasons at Michigan, as well as a Regular Season Big Ten Title.

And both kept it going.

I believe the other thing where we may see things differently a little bit...UVA had made about three NCAA's in its previous fifteen plus seasons prior to Bennett. Michigan hadn't made the NCAA's in the previous decade or so prior to Beilein's hire. Marquette on the other hand, had NCAA's and success for five out of six seasons prior to Wojo under Buzz, and add Crean's last three, made the NCAA's or better, eight out of nine seasons. These are some things that also help paint the picture a bit.

[jesmu84]

Lots of goalpost moving in this thread

[Viper]

So we weren't alone in 2nd now.

seems like Wojo snatched runner-up from the jaws of first place.

[MU82]

So I guess we're gonna re-litigate Wojo's record ...

Year 1 - 13-19 ... 9th BE ... Sucked, as most new coaches do, including most already mentioned in this thread.

Year 2 - 20-13 ... 7th BE ... Big season from 5-star NBA 1-and-done ... won preseason tourney in Brooklyn ... bad losses to Belmont and DePaul killed shot at NCAAs.

Year 3 - 19-13 ... 3rd BE ... Made NCAAs as 10 seed, lost to eventual FF team ... beat No. 7 Creighton and No. 1 Nova in 3-day span ... good seasons from 2 very promising freshmen, solid contributions from 2 transfers.

Year 4 ... 21-14 ... 6th BE ... 4-game losing streak in midseason and loss to DePaul killed NCAA chances ... made NIT and won 2 games ... Howard and Hauser established themselves as future stars.

Year 5 ... 24-10 ... 2nd BE ... Howard BE player of year, Hauser a standout ... 20-2 run from Nov. 23 to Feb. 23 included wins over Madison and 3 other top-15 teams put MU in top 10 ... late-season collapse ... NCAA 5-seed ... embarrassed by Ja State ... Hausers transfer after season due to poor chemistry.

After we crushed Providence on Feb. 23, 2019, to improve to 23-4 and take what seemed a commanding lead in the conference, only the biggest NoJos out there were claiming that the progression of the Marquette basketball program hadn't been pretty darn solid under Wojo.

We all know what happened next, and it's why we're now talking about this "lost season."

But yes, it's gonna take his replacement at least 3-4 years to build us into the kind of program we all want us to be ... if we make the right hire ... and we're a little lucky.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So to clarify, when I laid out my timeline, it was not championships by year three. It's steady improvement with tangible growth points. The majority of the above names fit into that criteria.

Ah.  So when you said

The biggest lie Wojo supporters have purported is that rebuilds take any longer than that. Anything beyond four years, questions should start being asked about roster management, recruiting, player development, tactical philosophy etc.

You didn't actually mean rebuilds take 3 years or shorter. You meant there should be signs of progress in the first three years. I think anyone would agree with that.

For a rebuild to be complete,  it usually takes 3 to 5. 5 is more common than 3.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Bennett and Beilein both made the NCAA's once in the their first three seasons. Wojo did as well. This matters, perhaps more to me than you. Not sure. It's a sign of progress. Checks a box. It gives you a nice appetizer at dinner, perhaps a Baltimore Crab Crake if you will. Full credit Wojo for showing something in year three. It's something to point to while taking another season or two to get to almost annual success. Later, an NCAA 5 seed gets full credit as well a few years ago.

Bennett of course went on to win 7 NCAA games in those first seven seasons, as well as two ACC Regular Season Titles.

Beilein of course also went on to win 7 NCAA games in his first seven seasons at Michigan, as well as a Regular Season Big Ten Title.

And both kept it going.

I believe the other thing where we may see things differently a little bit...UVA had made about three NCAA's in its previous fifteen plus seasons prior to Bennett. Michigan hadn't made the NCAA's in the previous decade or so prior to Beilein's hire. Marquette on the other hand, had NCAA's and success for five out of six seasons prior to Wojo under Buzz, and add Crean's last three, made the NCAA's or better, eight out of nine seasons. These are some things that also help paint the picture a bit.

To be clear my argument is not to compare Wojo favorably to any of these coaches. Just that good coaches have often taken more than 3 years to complete a rebuild.

Im not sure what you meant about NCAA appearances mattering more to you.  Appearances and seeding are my main criteria for judging coaches

[shoothoops]

To be clear my argument is not to compare Wojo favorably to any of these coaches. Just that good coaches have often taken more than 3 years to complete a rebuild.

Im not sure what you meant about NCAA appearances mattering more to you.  Appearances and seeding are my main criteria for judging coaches

I think we roughly agree after seeing your follow up posts after your first post when your focus was on number of years getting it going without clarifying that making the NCAA's in those first few years allows tor maybe one bad season in those first three years, or uneven success those first three seasons.

A coach gets a good progress report if you will, if that coach can produce a sign of progress, such as an NCAA in the first few seasons.

For me it isn't a complete picture to only say it took more than three years, without including the NCAA's progress, other etc...

And I also mentioned that Wojo seemingly walked into a better situation than the examples mentioned, and other examples. I believe your posts mostly mention the one season prior. I would include that in an evaluation, but, I would also expand well beyond that too.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wojo walked into a better program. To me,  that raises the ceiling for expected performance but doesn't necessarily raise the floor. I think the roster a coach inherits has the most impact on the floor if that makes sense

I think we're mostly in agreement too. For me,  completing a rebuild means appearances are being strung together and seeds are getting higher. Before that, they're should absolutely be signs of progress otherwise coach needs to go.

[MuggsyB]

Successful rebuilds show fruit in two to three seasons in CBB. Patience is more than warranted for four years as well, but that's on the long end. Wait any longer than that and the job just gets that much harder for the next guy.

The biggest lie Wojo supporters have purported is that rebuilds take any longer than that. Anything beyond four years, questions should start being asked about roster management, recruiting, player development, tactical philosophy etc.

I think roster turnover plays a role.  It sure looks like Holtmann has done alright at both Butler and Ohio St.  And think about it, no one knew who this guy was the year he became HC at Butler.  Coincidentally it was the same year we hired Wojo.  Find the right guy/gal.  People are out there.

[panda]

Ah.  So when you said

You didn't actually mean rebuilds take 3 years or shorter. You meant there should be signs of progress in the first three years. I think anyone would agree with that.

For a rebuild to be complete,  it usually takes 3 to 5. 5 is more common than 3.

No I meant what I said, but it seems like we're taking the same side here. A successful rebuild should take, at most, four years (a recruiting class). Given the dynamics of roster turnover in present day college basketball, successful coaches can utilize grad transfers/jucos/traditional transfers to win quicker than in four seasons.

To be clear, I'm not advocating for changes to be made if the program is winning and making deep runs into the tournament yet. But, questions should he asked of the program direction at that point.

[panda]

I think roster turnover plays a role.  It sure looks like Holtmann has done alright at both Butler and Ohio St.  And think about it, no one knew who this guy was the year he became HC at Butler.  Coincidentally it was the same year we hired Wojo.  Find the right guy/gal.  People are out there.

Finding the right person is important. Also equally important is knowing when you don't have the right person.

[shoothoops]

Wojo walked into a better program. To me,  that raises the ceiling for expected performance but doesn't necessarily raise the floor. I think the roster a coach inherits has the most impact on the floor if that makes sense

I think we're mostly in agreement too. For me,  completing a rebuild means appearances are being strung together and seeds are getting higher. Before that, they're should absolutely be signs of progress otherwise coach needs to go.

👍✌️Agree here.

[MU82]

I think roster turnover plays a role.  It sure looks like Holtmann has done alright at both Butler and Ohio St.  And think about it, no one knew who this guy was the year he became HC at Butler.  Coincidentally it was the same year we hired Wojo.  Find the right guy/gal.  People are out there.

Holtmann was Stevens' assistant and was promoted when Stevens went to the Celtics. Before that, he was a head coach for 3 years at Gardner-Webb, where he was 44-54 with one winning season, and before that he was an assistant at the hotbeds of Ohio, Gardner-Webb, Taylor and Geneva.

Had we hired him in 2014, Scoop would no longer exist today because it would have blown up. BOOM!

[Silent Verbal]

Holtmann was Stevens' assistant and was promoted when Stevens went to the Celtics. Before that, he was a head coach for 3 years at Gardner-Webb, where he was 44-54 with one winning season, and before that he was an assistant at the hotbeds of Ohio, Gardner-Webb, Taylor and Geneva.

Had we hired him in 2014, Scoop would no longer exist today because it would have blown up. BOOM!

Actually, Butler promoted that Brandon Miller guy (who I believe was also a Stevens assistant) who coached them for a year before Holtmann got promoted.  But Miller stepped down after a year due to personal reasons, so it was a real "blink and you missed it" type run for him.  I'm not sure Holtmann would even be a head coach right now if Miller hadn't left.  Unfortunately, I think Butler has had one coaching change too many in the last eight years, and it looks like they may not be able to withstand it.  For the sake of the conference, I hope I'm wrong.

But to your point, yes, it was a similar hire to Buzz at MU.  I'm positive I wouldn't have been happy about it initially.

[Lennys Tap]

Holtmann was Stevens' assistant and was promoted when Stevens went to the Celtics. Before that, he was a head coach for 3 years at Gardner-Webb, where he was 44-54 with one winning season, and before that he was an assistant at the hotbeds of Ohio, Gardner-Webb, Taylor and Geneva.

Had we hired him in 2014, Scoop would no longer exist today because it would have blown up. BOOM!

If we would have done a Scoop Poll on the resume's of MU's last 6 hires my guess is their rankings going in would have been:

Deane
Dukiet
Wojo
KO/Crean
Buzz

Their results?

Buzz
KO/Crean
Wojo
Deane
Dukiet

Hmmm....

[Vander Blue Man Group]

There's not really any point in litigating the Wojo timeline anymore. Both sides have had legit points. Ultimately the no-Jos were right.

I've always hung in the middle depending on the day until this season but there's no rational argument to keep him on at this point. I'd like to keep DC, DG, and JL in the program plus the incoming class as much as anyone but at what cost.

Hopefully we can make the right hire and keep some of that talent. If not that can't change the decision. He's had enough time. He ain't it.

[MU82]

Actually, Butler promoted that Brandon Miller guy (who I believe was also a Stevens assistant) who coached them for a year before Holtmann got promoted.  But Miller stepped down after a year due to personal reasons, so it was a real "blink and you missed it" type run for him.  I'm not sure Holtmann would even be a head coach right now if Miller hadn't left.  Unfortunately, I think Butler has had one coaching change too many in the last eight years, and it looks like they may not be able to withstand it.  For the sake of the conference, I hope I'm wrong.

But to your point, yes, it was a similar hire to Buzz at MU.  I'm positive I wouldn't have been happy about it initially.

Thanks for the correction. I forgot about Miller!

And thanks for the confirmation that Scoopers would have HATED a hire like Holtmann.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for the correction. I forgot about Miller!

And thanks for the confirmation that Scoopers would have HATED a hire like Holtmann.

I think your general takes on these "Scoopers would've hated" is too simplistic. In Holtmann's case, he took over a team that was nosediving into the 300s and lost 3 senior starters. He recruited new players and improved a 332 preseason prediction by 62 spots, finishing 270 on kenpom. In three years, his teams improved over their projection by an average 51 spots & he won over 20 games in year 3 when he left for Butler. His teams always showed in-season improvement & vastly outdid expectations.

Beard is similar. I believe you've said Scoopers would've been disappointed hiring a guy with one high major season at Little Rock, but look at that one season. In the history of kenpom, UALR has had 2 top-125 finishes: #97 in 2002 under Porter Moser and a massive outlier  #56 under Beard with a 30-win season and NCAA upset of Purdue. That from a team projected #212 in the preseason, a staggering 156 spot improvement. Yes, it was one year, but it was the equivalent of taking over DePaul & leading them to a Sweet 16 in the first year with Leitao's players.

A coach that massively outperforms expectations and whose teams consistently improve as the season goes on seems to be exactly what we'd want. FWIW, that doesn't seem to be Buzz, who had the worst New Orleans season in a decade.

[wadesworld]

If we would have done a Scoop Poll on the resume's of MU's last 6 hires my guess is their rankings going in would have been:

Deane
Dukiet
Wojo
KO/Crean
Buzz

Their results?

Buzz
KO/Crean
Wojo
Deane
Dukiet

Hmmm....

So if we hire you we'll win a few National Championships?

[MU82]

I think your general takes on these "Scoopers would've hated" is too simplistic. In Holtmann's case, he took over a team that was nosediving into the 300s and lost 3 senior starters. He recruited new players and improved a 332 preseason prediction by 62 spots, finishing 270 on kenpom. In three years, his teams improved over their projection by an average 51 spots & he won over 20 games in year 3 when he left for Butler. His teams always showed in-season improvement & vastly outdid expectations.

Beard is similar. I believe you've said Scoopers would've been disappointed hiring a guy with one high major season at Little Rock, but look at that one season. In the history of kenpom, UALR has had 2 top-125 finishes: #97 in 2002 under Porter Moser and a massive outlier  #56 under Beard with a 30-win season and NCAA upset of Purdue. That from a team projected #212 in the preseason, a staggering 156 spot improvement. Yes, it was one year, but it was the equivalent of taking over DePaul & leading them to a Sweet 16 in the first year with Leitao's players.

A coach that massively outperforms expectations and whose teams consistently improve as the season goes on seems to be exactly what we'd want. FWIW, that doesn't seem to be Buzz, who had the worst New Orleans season in a decade.

We will agree to disagree about Beard and Holtmann.

Though maybe you're right, brew, and a new era is dawning. Maybe Scoopers so hate Wojo that they will embrace just about any replacement -- even guys whose only D1 coaching experience is 1 year at a mid-major or 3 meh seasons at a low-major.

[brewcity77]

We will agree to disagree about Beard and Holtmann.

Though maybe you're right, brew, and a new era is dawning. Maybe Scoopers so hate Wojo that they will embrace just about any replacement -- even guys whose only D1 coaching experience is 1 year at a mid-major or 3 meh seasons at a low-major.

It's not where they do it, it's what they do while they're there. That's one reason I like Craig Smith, who has improved his teams every year and overachieves expectations repeatedly. Or why many are fans of Darian DeVries. Another that hasn't been mentioned but I'd give a look at is Grant McCasland, who hasn't won big, but has dramatically better results than the programs he's been at are accustomed to and regularly makes his teams much, much better.

We'd all love a Beilein type, but when they don't come, I'd take any of those three over some of the better known names that could be mentioned, like Anthony Grant or Porter Moser.