We have a pretty good Team & Coach

[tower912]

Senility sets in. Mr. Loaf should never be forgotten.

I won't do that.

[Lennys Tap]

Your expectations are your expectations, but just because you believe them to be reasonable, doesn't make them reasonable.

Besides Villanova, no team has managed to string together multiple 12-6 seasons in the current iteration of the Big East. Only 4 non-Nova teams have managed to have 2 12-6 or better seasons in the past seven seasons. None have had 3 or more. Creighton has done it twice (13-14 and 19-20), Butler has done it twice (14-15, 16-17), X has done it twice 15-16, 17-18) and Seton Hall has done it twice (15-16, 19-20). Georgetown (14-15), Providence (19-20) and Marquette (18-19) have each done it once. DePaul and St. John's have never done it.

Only one non-Nova team has one the BE outright, Xavier (17-18). Seton Hall and Creighton were co-champions with Nova in 19-20.

Better NCAA success, I'm with you there.

For me, there is a difference between goals and expectations. Expectations are what we do now. Goals are about what we are building to. I absolutely agree that the above are reasonable goals that MU should aspire to and with the right coach will achieve. I don't think they are reasonable to expect at this point.

To be clear, Wojo hasn't met my expectations to this point even though they are lower than yours. He met them years 1-5 but year 6 was a disappointment. I'm waiting to see how this year goes before deciding if its a sign that Wojo hit his ceiling, or if it was just a bump in the road.

So, summing things up, after 7 years under Wojo, Villanova has been way, way better than MU. Xavier has been way better. Creighton, Seton Hall and Butler have been better, as has New Big East new member UCONN. Providence has been about the same. Only Georgetown, St John's and DePaul (all of whom have been pretty much embarrassingly bad) have been worse. And that, for the most part, meets your expectations. Not mine. To each his own, but when I look at the seven (or 10 or 12 or 15) years of MU basketball pre Wojo and compare them, I'm disappointed.

[panda]

More than an extent. The SOS impact is pretty minimal

How so?

I understand the adjusted stats, but at the core of kenpom is quality wins and poor losses. You're afforded more opportunity for quality wins and less opportunity for very poor losses in a higher quality league. How would the algorithm adjust for seven league losses in the BE vs three league losses in CUSA?

What's separating a team like St. Mary's last season vs. a Minnesota? Would St. Mary's still be ranked the same if they played an identical schedule to Minnesota?

Frankly I think that's the one weak spot of Kenpom. A team like Minnesota last year is highly ranked more so because of the strength of their schedule rather than their actual ability. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How so?

I understand the adjusted stats, but at the core of kenpom is quality wins and poor losses. You're afforded more opportunity for quality wins and less opportunity for very poor losses in a higher quality league. How would the algorithm adjust for seven league losses in the BE vs three league losses in CUSA?

What's separating a team like St. Mary's last season vs. a Minnesota? Would St. Mary's still be ranked the same if they played an identical schedule to Minnesota?

Frankly I think that's the one weak spot of Kenpom. A team like Minnesota last year is highly ranked more so because of the strength of their schedule rather than their actual ability.

The core of KenPom is not quality wins and poor losses, it's efficiency. Do you beat an opponent as efficiently as you should based on their quality? This isn't RPI where you get points just for playing a tough opponent or lose points for playing a bad one. KenPom measures how efficiently you played against your opponents and adjusts your expected efficiency based on the quality of opponent, and continues to adjust for quality as the season goes on and more data becomes available. This is an oversimplification, but basically that larger the margin of victory, the higher your KenPom rating will go. You know the game that raised our KenPom rating the most this season? Eastern Illinois. Again oversimplifying, but KenPom expected us to win by 12ish IIRC and winning by 25 led to us jumping up 5 spots. It didn't matter that they were from a crap conference.

KenPom can compare Minnesota and St. Mary's because it looks at the efficiency of their performances. Again, oversimplifying, but Minnesota has an advantage because they play more quality opponents so they don't need as large of margin of victories to move the needle, but those wins are hard to come by because of the quality of their conference. St. Mary's has an advantage because they play worse opponents and are more likely to rack up large wins, but they really have to run up the score on their opponents in order to move the needle. Reality is, Minnesota losing by 1 to Maryland last season is a lot more impressive than St. Mary's beating Pacific by 8. KenPom accurately captures that.

Frankly I think that's the one weak spot of Kenpom. A team like Minnesota last year is highly ranked more so because of the strength of their schedule rather than their actual ability. 

You have it backwards. Minnesota's win/loss record was bad more so because of the strength of their schedule rather than their actual ability. Minnesota was a solid team last season in a ridiculously good conference.

[willie warrior]

Willie has a Wardle Woody.

Back at you Wojo Woody. Woof Wojo Wang all you desire.

[brewcity77]

To an extent, but strength of schedule will never make it a like for like comparison.

While I understand the argument because of how the Big 10 seems to magnify each other, Gonzaga is #1 and Houston #6 currently. In the past 4 competed seasons, 7 non-power league schools have finished in the top-10, including programs from the MVC & Mountain West. In Cal's last four years at Memphis (in CUSA) they were top-10 each year. And CUSA in the Crean years was a pretty solid conference regardless.

[Uncle Rico]

Back at you Wojo Woody. Woof Wojo Wang all you desire.

Bradley lost on Wednesday to Illinois State by 15.  Bradley is now 113th in KenPom and 9-5 overall.  Illinois State is 236th and 5-8.


Edit: If there were a coaching change at the end of this season in Milwaukee, I would very much expect Porter Moser to be the Valley coach they'd hire if one came from that conference.

[shoothoops]

I feel using Pomeroy helps get around the conference affiliation question as teams are ranked against each other top to bottom. That helps to at least objectively put that unanswerable question aside, at least for me.

As the numbers indicate, Wojo is Crean without Wade.  Obviously, that is a big "IF" as Tower states (not a compliment per se) and as you feel as well (as do many of us here).

The knock on Crean is he was sawtoothed. The swings from good to below average, and him trying to renegotiate his contract in every good year. Wojo has been meh, slow and steady without the highs and just the rebuild lows.

In the stock market, the Street like the NBA draft, rewards potential. Buzz was the tech start-up with great returns, but you had to absorb the crash. Wojo is the sideways stock, hoping for the break-out. Crean is the volatile stock where you keep pumping cash in hoping for that runway until you finally give up and sell.

On Wojo, do fans and alums want to invest more? The sentiment to sell is growing with their impatience. It's "show me" time. For the admin and BOT, Wojo is a hold and a dividend play. Wojo's steady but average performance satisfies them. However, he needs that breakout sooner rather than later as the shared goal is to "compete for titles".

I used the Pomeroy numbers as I thought it would add at least an objective lens to the emotional of Scoop ("fire Wojo"). In reality, he has been good but not great. He has also been mediocre but not poor.

The inflection point is approaching. I am a bit more optimistic. This team has a nice ceiling. But I am watching for a peak as the season progresses, not a valley. With Garcia, DJ and Lewis, I see that upside as they are all tough match-ups when clicking.

I do appreciate the info and discussion.

I do value Crean's Final Four and first three seasons in the old Big East quite a bit. No, I haven't forgotten that afternoon NCAA loss to Tulsa or insert whatever here.

I am consistent in that I find Porter Moser's accomplishments at Loyola Chicago to be better than Brian Wardle's at Bradley to this point. A Final Four, and a few regular season league titles speak to me. (I am not advocating for either one to coach Marquette, and Wardle is two seasons behind that he's allowed to have in that comparison.)

I'd take a regular season league title, and early NCAA exit. I'd take a middle of the pack league finish with a NCAA 2nd weekend. (Of course we'd all take both)

Back to MU Rah Rah, K.O. wasn't in your numbers but making the NCAA's for the first time in a decade, getting better each year until the Sweet 16, has value for me. For Wojo, I need more value.

You alluded a little bit to perhaps some of the different personalities of MU coaches. Things certainly didn't end well for Wojo and the Ellenson family, as well as Wojo and the Hauser family. I mention these to show that sometimes perceptions can vary. People can certainly find negative examples of other MU coaches as well.

We also haven't discussed administration. It was pretty bad under Buzz, and both the AD didn't last long. If anything, working and being successful under more challenging conditions, with admin, or say facilities etc...counts more for me.

I am positive and hopeful unless and until there is no longer a time to be positive and hopeful.

I believe Marquette can improve this season both in the regular season and post season. I am not as bullish on MU's guards and guard play and depth as perhaps some others. I would like to see improvement at back up at the 1, as well as overall depth from the 2 and 3. When someone posted which player would you like to see back next year (I don't expect any), my answer without hesitation was Koby, based on what MU has now, and coming in next year.

There's still an opportunity for a stronger league finish. There's still an opportunity to win an NCAA game or two. Again, I am aware of Marquette's circumstances, the Pandemic, BOT, etc...but what matters most to me is what I think and feel in the end. We'll see what MU can accomplish the rest of the season and into the post season. I am hopeful for good things.

[panda]

While I understand the argument because of how the Big 10 seems to magnify each other, Gonzaga is #1 and Houston #6 currently. In the past 4 competed seasons, 7 non-power league schools have finished in the top-10, including programs from the MVC & Mountain West. In Cal's last four years at Memphis (in CUSA) they were top-10 each year. And CUSA in the Crean years was a pretty solid conference regardless.

I wouldn't think the great teams need help, but a top four team in a mid major conference that doesn't play anyone would always be ranked significantly lower than a middle of the road big ten team in my mind. That's a deficiency in my mind.

Thx for the insight guys.

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't think the great teams need help, but a top four team in a mid major conference that doesn't play anyone would always be ranked significantly lower than a middle of the road big ten team in my mind. That's a deficiency in my mind.

Thx for the insight guys.

It might be like that in your mind, but it's not like that in the kenpom model. Looking at our CUSA days...

• 2002: 4th place CUSA #40 Charlotte, 6th place B10 #46 Iowa
  
• 2003: 4th place CUSA #36 Cincinnati,  6th place B10 #61 Michigan
  
• 2004: 4th place CUSA #43 Charlotte, 6th place B10 #69 Iowa
  
• 2005: 4th place CUSA #53 Memphis, 6th place B10 #41 Minnesota

So 3/4 years, the 4th place CUSA team was better than the 6th (middle of 11) placed B10 team.

If what you were saying was true, it would be a problem, but you're arguing from a position that does not comport with reality.

[panda]

It might be like that in your mind, but it's not like that in the kenpom model. Looking at our CUSA days...

• 2002: 4th place CUSA #40 Charlotte, 6th place B10 #46 Iowa
  
• 2003: 4th place CUSA #36 Cincinnati,  6th place B10 #61 Michigan
  
• 2004: 4th place CUSA #43 Charlotte, 6th place B10 #69 Iowa
  
• 2005: 4th place CUSA #53 Memphis, 6th place B10 #41 Minnesota

So 3/4 years, the 4th place CUSA team was better than the 6th (middle of 11) placed B10 team.

If what you were saying was true, it would be a problem, but you're arguing from a position that does not comport with reality.

Honestly - I was over served last night and my points made much more sense then than they do now! Thx for the clarification guys.

[willie warrior]

So, summing things up, after 7 years under Wojo, Villanova has been way, way better than MU. Xavier has been way better. Creighton, Seton Hall and Butler have been better, as has New Big East new member UCONN. Providence has been about the same. Only Georgetown, St John's and DePaul (all of whom have been pretty much embarrassingly bad) have been worse. And that, for the most part, meets your expectations. Not mine. To each his own, but when I look at the seven (or 10 or 12 or 15) years of MU basketball pre Wojo and compare them, I'm disappointed.

An those last 3 you mentioned are the only 3 MU is ahead of in BEast. Kudos to Wojo.

[NCMUFan]

I guess W & L are all we look at. But if I recall correctly, Villanova was the only one that completely stomped us.  We had a chance to win the rest in conference play.  Correct me please if I am wrong.

[willie warrior]

I guess W & L are all we look at. But if I recall correctly, Villanova was the only one that completely stomped us.  We had a chance to win the rest in conference play.  Correct me please if I am wrong.

You are right. Exvuses for MU mediocrity are always gratefully accepted on Scoop.

[Uncle Rico]

You are right. Exvuses for MU mediocrity are always gratefully accepted on Scoop.

It's being accepted at Bradley, too.

[brewcity77]

Honestly - I was over served last night and my points made much more sense then than they do now! Thx for the clarification guys.

LOL understandable.

[muwarrior97]

Are you watching today's game? I don't see it

[Bad_Reporter]

Imagine if wojo was playing in the Buzz era Big East?  Woof.

[f/k/a humanlung]

I have stayed away (to the Projos, you're welcome) but enough is enough.

No matter what the year, no matter who the players, we see the same shortcomings year after year.

The simple fact is that despite the occasional good win or two, there is no level of recruiting success that can overcome the deficiencies of Wojo as a game planner and in game coach.

I do not care if we come back to win this game against a winless BE team.  What we are watching is the best we are ever going to get with this guy.

[4everwarriors]

Eye dunno, he kame from Duke, hey?

[Boozemon Barro]

DePaul has a pretty good Team & Coach.

[PointWarrior]

Remind me how good our coach and team are now. 

[mu_hilltopper]

Remind me how good our coach and team are now. 

+1

[goldeneagle91114]

This didn't age real well

[f/k/a humanlung]

This didn't age real well

Never does.