We have a pretty good Team & Coach

[shoothoops]

Wojo just oesn't have much yet to limit the coaching change discussion.

Competing for a Big East Title, an NCAA 2nd weekend, etc...if you look at some of his league peers, even just a few first round wins would have been enough to tone down the discussion. And of course, the lopsided NCAA losing scores have only increased the pressure for him.

There are many boxes to check. For example, he's checked the box of being competitive with some rivals such as Wisconsin. That's good. But he needs to check a few more boxes.

This was my original post in the discussion. I am happy to clear up any confusion.

I said that Wojo hasn't accomplished enough yet to change the hot seat discussion. I then used examples of some things that would have changed that, such as NCAA 2nd weekend, competing for Big East Title, etc...

I then said that even a few different seasons of simply winning one first round NCAA game would have helped. I said this because some of his middle of the pack peers have that. And, some of those peers don't appear to be on the hot seat at their schools by comparison.

I could have structured the sentences and paragraphs better but it seems reasonably clear what I meant.

As time goes by, the expectations and pressure builds. Is one NCAA win enough to keep his job? Does it need to be a Big East Title or NCAA 2nd weekend? (I am aware of and I do understand the Pandemic will factor into decisions)

[4everwarriors]

'pends on how y'all define pretty good, aina?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My expectations are more 12-6 or better league finishes, more top 3, win a Big East Title once in a while, get better NCAA results etc .....those are my Marquette program expectations, whether Wojo is the coach or anyone else.

I am not going to lower my expectation because I believe they are reasonable.

Your expectations are your expectations, but just because you believe them to be reasonable, doesn't make them reasonable.

Besides Villanova, no team has managed to string together multiple 12-6 seasons in the current iteration of the Big East. Only 4 non-Nova teams have managed to have 2 12-6 or better seasons in the past seven seasons. None have had 3 or more. Creighton has done it twice (13-14 and 19-20), Butler has done it twice (14-15, 16-17), X has done it twice 15-16, 17-18) and Seton Hall has done it twice (15-16, 19-20). Georgetown (14-15), Providence (19-20) and Marquette (18-19) have each done it once. DePaul and St. John's have never done it.

Only one non-Nova team has one the BE outright, Xavier (17-18). Seton Hall and Creighton were co-champions with Nova in 19-20.

Better NCAA success, I'm with you there.

For me, there is a difference between goals and expectations. Expectations are what we do now. Goals are about what we are building to. I absolutely agree that the above are reasonable goals that MU should aspire to and with the right coach will achieve. I don't think they are reasonable to expect at this point.

To be clear, Wojo hasn't met my expectations to this point even though they are lower than yours. He met them years 1-5 but year 6 was a disappointment. I'm waiting to see how this year goes before deciding if its a sign that Wojo hit his ceiling, or if it was just a bump in the road.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This was my original post in the discussion. I am happy to clear up any confusion.

It's really not necessary. As I said

You say that I read it wrong and that's fine. I see what you meant now.

[shoothoops]

Your expectations are your expectations, but just because you believe them to be reasonable, doesn't make them reasonable.

Besides Villanova, no team has managed to string together multiple 12-6 seasons in the current iteration of the Big East. Only 4 non-Nova teams have managed to have 2 12-6 or better seasons in the past seven seasons. None have had 3 or more. Creighton has done it twice (13-14 and 19-20), Butler has done it twice (14-15, 16-17), X has done it twice 15-16, 17-18) and Seton Hall has done it twice (15-16, 19-20). Georgetown (14-15), Providence (19-20) and Marquette (18-19) have each done it once. DePaul and St. John's have never done it.

Only one non-Nova team has one a BET outright, Xavier (17-18). Seton Hall and Creighton were co-champions with Nova in 19-20.

Better NCAA success, I'm with you there.

For me, there is a difference between goals and expectations. Expectations are what we do now. Goals are about what we are building to. I absolutely agree that the above are reasonable goals that MU should aspire to and with the right coach will achieve. I don't think they are reasonable to expect at this point.

To be clear, Wojo hasn't met my expectations to this point even though they are lower than yours. He met them years 1-5 but year 6 was a disappointment. I'm waiting to see how this year goes before deciding if its a sign that Wojo hit his ceiling, or if it was just a bump in the road.

So, including Villanova, FIVE Big East schools not named Marquette have had multiple 12-6 league finishes or better in the current Big East. How is that not reasonable? I would also like to see MU as a top tier or top third Big East program vs what they have been thus far under Wojo. It's reasonable to not want to be 5th/6th overall on average long term. It's certainly fine some of the time.

I do believe we agree on some things. And we are in compromise range of some other things.

Some coaches enter a program with immediate success, others take a few years to build. (Jay Wright made the NCAA's in his 4th season at Villanova, same for Coach K at Duke). It's fair to give a coach 3-5 years, often closer to five than three, and see what progress has been made toward annual expectations.

Wojo is in year seven. He's made the NCAA's 3 out of the past 4 seasons. (i count last year as an NCAA team). This season would be 4 out of 5, if they can make the NCAA's this season. That checks one of the many boxes for me. One of my many boxes is having MU as an "almost" annual NCAA team. I've already mentioned success v rival teams, etc...that checks another box.

As you mentioned with regard to 12-6 or better, Wojo has not been able to do that multiple times yet. Can't check that box yet. No NCAA wins, can't check that box yet. It's year seven, some people would like to see him checking off more boxes.

[Shooter McGavin]

'pends on how y'all define pretty good, aina?

Championships plural, aina?

[BobWildLoyalist]

Wojo is currently 55-61 lifetime in the BE. He's only had 2 seasons over .500 in 6 full years. Enough said.

[rocky_warrior]

To be clear, Wojo hasn't met my expectations to this point even though they are lower than yours. He met them years 1-5 but year 6 was a disappointment. I'm waiting to see how this year goes before deciding if its a sign that Wojo hit his ceiling, or if it was just a bump in the road.

I'm not saying we need to allow a lot more years to judge :p, but I don't think this year will really provide clarity on Wojo's ceiling successor not...

[Shooter McGavin]

Wojo is currently 55-61 lifetime in the BE. He's only had 2 seasons over .500 in 6 full years. Enough said.

That does sound bad when you say it out loud. 

[Galway Eagle]

Wojo is currently 55-61 lifetime in the BE. He's only had 2 seasons over .500 in 6 full years. Enough said.

Not great. What's he if you takeaway his first year? Which I had thought was what most people reasonably did.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Over the past 25 years, MU is ranked as the 31st best program in Pomeroy (aggregated).  The average season rank of MU teams is 50 when you average year by year.  With that we can rank our coaches RELATIVE to each other and each season based on past performance and expectations.

Wojo’s average season rank is 57 including this season to date...slightly below average and close to Crean’s average season rank of 53.

Deane was the basement at 69. Buzz was the ceiling at 30, 65% better than the average MU coach.

Wojo’s first two seasons were his two worst to the MU 25 year norm. The rest were pretty much at norm or norm+.

I think Tower or Fluffy have said this, but Wojo is Crean without Wade. Will he get there in the future with his recruiting is the promise, but right now he is what he thought he was.

Buzz is the outlier with five out of six seasons way above the MU average with his last season, with no Vander, McKay and not much Mayo, being slightly below average.

Things have changed with the program since Buzz, but Wojo is meeting expectations and he is the same as Crean.  Whether fans want the Buzz success as their expectation, it isn’t the MU average, right or wrong.  He does need some post-season runs though.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I think Tower or Fluffy have said this, but Wojo is Crean without Wade. Will he get there in the future with his recruiting is the promise, but right now he is what he thought he was.

I think we both did, and I still think its fairly accurate.  I think Wojo is starting to fall below the trend line however.

[tower912]

Not really.  One tourney win in 8 years without Wade.  And BTW, I actually think of this as a criticism.

[shoothoops]

Over the past 25 years, MU is ranked as the 31st best program in Pomeroy (aggregated).  The average season rank of MU teams is 50 when you average year by year.  With that we can rank our coaches RELATIVE to each other and each season based on past performance and expectations.

Wojo’s average season rank is 57 including this season to date...slightly below average and close to Crean’s average season rank of 53.

Deane was the basement at 69. Buzz was the ceiling at 30, 65% better than the average MU coach.

Wojo’s first two seasons were his two worst to the MU 25 year norm. The rest were pretty much at norm or norm+.

I think Tower or Fluffy have said this, but Wojo is Crean without Wade. Will he get there in the future with his recruiting is the promise, but right now he is what he thought he was.

Buzz is the outlier with five out of six seasons way above the MU average with his last season, with no Vander, McKay and not much Mayo, being slightly below average.

Things have changed with the program since Buzz, but Wojo is meeting expectations and he is the same as Crean.  Whether fans want the Buzz success as their expectation, it isn’t the MU average, right or wrong.  He does need some post-season runs though.

So, you are saying more Buzz, less Deane.

When you do what, ...also matters. Are we talking about the Old Gym or some of the more recent on and off campus facilities, etc? Budgets?

Is MU coming off of 3 of 4 NCAA 2nd weekends? Or is it when K.O. took over. Etc ..

What league and what version of that league are we discussing and so on...

Would Wojo have had 3 straight top five 5 finishes to start the old version of the Big East?

Marquette has made the Final Four in 1974, 1977, 2003. That's it. Seems like a big deal to accomplish that at MU. If Wojo is Crean, I'm looking forward to Wojo cutting down the nets at the Elite 8 Regional Final soon. I'd settle for Crean's final six years of results at Indiana which were 3 Sweet 16's and 2 Regular Season League Titles.

[panda]

Not really.  One tourney win in 8 years without Wade.  And BTW, I actually think of this as a criticism.

Crean earned leeway with his final four birth which is totally reasonable. He finished 4th, 5th and 5th in the old BE which is extremely impressive. It was a very impressive rebuild after making a final four as a CUSA team and then making a huge jump to the old BE.

Crean's overall success speaks for itself. He put Marquette back on the map and Buzz took the next step. Wojo is doing his best do hang on. Hopefully the recruits keep coming in.

[dgies9156]

Meat Loaf, dgies.

Senility sets in. Mr. Loaf should never be forgotten.

[Dr. Blackheart]

So, you are saying more Buzz, less Deane.

When you do what, ...also matters. Are we talking about the Old Gym or some of the more recent on and off campus facilities, etc? Budgets?

Is MU coming off of 3 of 4 NCAA 2nd weekends? Or is it when K.O. took over. Etc ..

What league and what version of that league are we discussing and so on...

Would Wojo have had 3 straight top five 5 finishes to start the old version of the Big East?

Marquette has made the Final Four in 1974, 1977, 2003. That's it. Seems like a big deal to accomplish that at MU. If Wojo is Crean, I'm looking forward to Wojo cutting down the nets at the Elite 8 Regional Final soon. I'd settle for Crean's final six years of results at Indiana which were 3 Sweet 16's and 2 Regular Season League Titles.

I feel using Pomeroy helps get around the conference affiliation question as teams are ranked against each other top to bottom. That helps to at least objectively put that unanswerable question aside, at least for me.

As the numbers indicate, Wojo is Crean without Wade.  Obviously, that is a big “IF” as Tower states (not a compliment per se) and as you feel as well (as do many of us here).

The knock on Crean is he was sawtoothed. The swings from good to below average, and him trying to renegotiate his contract in every good year. Wojo has been meh, slow and steady without the highs and just the rebuild lows.

In the stock market, the Street like the NBA draft, rewards potential. Buzz was the tech start-up with great returns, but you had to absorb the crash. Wojo is the sideways stock, hoping for the break-out. Crean is the volatile stock where you keep pumping cash in hoping for that runway until you finally give up and sell.

On Wojo, do fans and alums want to invest more? The sentiment to sell is growing with their impatience. It’s “show me” time. For the admin and BOT, Wojo is a hold and a dividend play. Wojo’s steady but average performance satisfies them. However, he needs that breakout sooner rather than later as the shared goal is to “compete for titles”.

I used the Pomeroy numbers as I thought it would add at least an objective lens to the emotional of Scoop (“fire Wojo”). In reality, he has been good but not great. He has also been mediocre but not poor.

The inflection point is approaching. I am a bit more optimistic. This team has a nice ceiling. But I am watching for a peak as the season progresses, not a valley. With Garcia, DJ and Lewis, I see that upside as they are all tough match-ups when clicking.

[panda]

I feel using Pomeroy helps get around the conference affiliation question as teams are ranked against each other top to bottom. That helps to at least objectively put that unanswerable question aside, at least for me.

As the numbers indicate, Wojo is Crean without Wade.  Obviously, that is a big “IF” as Tower states (not a compliment per se) and as you feel as well (as do many of us here).

The knock on Crean is he was sawtoothed. The swings from good to below average, and him trying to renegotiate his contract in every good year. Wojo has been meh, slow and steady without the highs and just the rebuild lows.

In the stock market, the Street like the NBA draft, rewards potential. Buzz was the tech start-up with great returns, but you had to absorb the crash. Wojo is the sideways stock, hoping for the break-out. Crean is the volatile stock where you keep pumping cash in hoping for that runway until you finally give up and sell.

On Wojo, do fans and alums want to invest more? The sentiment to sell is growing with their impatience. It’s “show me” time. For the admin and BOT, Wojo is a hold and a dividend play. Wojo’s steady but average performance satisfies them. However, he needs that breakout sooner rather than later as the shared goal is to “compete for titles”.

I used the Pomeroy numbers as I thought it would add at least an objective lens to the emotional of Scoop (“fire Wojo”). In reality, he has been good but not great. He has also been mediocre but not poor.

The inflection point is approaching. I am a bit more optimistic. This team has a nice ceiling. But I am watching for a peak as the season progresses, not a valley. With Garcia, DJ and Fields, I see that upside as they are all tough match-ups when clicking.

I love the fields upside at the quarterback position for next season!

[NCMUFan]

That was an exciting year the entry of Marquette into the BEAST.  Without a phenomenal incoming class of the three Amigos and upper classmen of Novak and Chapman, that first year for Crean in the BEAST could have been carnage.
Buzz's first year he had the three Amigos and Lazar.  Talking about a full cupboard.  But Buzz was impressive his 2nd year with Lazar, Jimmy, David Cubillan and Mo Acker, getting everything he could out of his players.  What a turn around that season after losing so many close ones early on.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I love the fields upside at the quarterback position for next season!

Lol. I blame Dgies autocorrect.

[panda]

Lol. I blame Dgies autocorrect.

Lol all good. Just as an aside, Kenpom numbers will be inherently lower playing in a lesser conference such as CUSA. Not a like for like comparison.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Lol all good. Just as an aside, Kenpom numbers will be inherently lower playing in a lesser conference such as CUSA. Not a like for like comparison.

KenPom adjusts for that.

[4everwarriors]

MU chit kanned 39 staffers today. Woj ain't goin' know wear unless he gets himself another gig, aina?

[panda]

KenPom adjusts for that.

To an extent, but strength of schedule will never make it a like for like comparison.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

To an extent, but strength of schedule will never make it a like for like comparison.

More than an extent. The SOS impact is pretty minimal