The Hey its 2021 now guys MLB thread

[CTWarrior]

deGrom 8 IP 5 H 14 K 1 ER   Loss

It is phenomenal the lack of support he gets.  So far 2 S, 14 IP, 0.64 ERA 0 wins one loss.

Excerpt from Joe Posnanski on The Athletic:

I don’t know what’s left to say about Jacob deGrom … but as long as the New York Mets keep doing Mets things with him on the mound, we cannot stop talking about it. Since 2018, deGrom has won two Cy Young Awards, and he finished third in the Cy Young voting last “season.” He came out Monday and threw six shutout innings in his first (delayed) start and clocked 102 mph on his best fastball. The Mets lost that game anyway.

The Mets are now 36-41 in his starts over that period of time.

In his 33 no-decisions, his ERA is 1.76 but the Mets are 11-22. This feels, to me, unprecedented. The closest example I can find is King Félix Hernández, who from 2010 to 2013 was a really good pitcher and the Mariners went 65-67. And there’s no question that during those four years he was a seriously no-support pitcher.

But … well, a couple of things. For one thing, while it’s true that King Félix had that hard-luck stretch, in other years the Mariners gave him plenty of support. In 2009, he went 19-5 and the Mariners won 25 of his 34 starts. In 2014, the Mariners scored 10-plus runs five times in his starts and went 22-12 when he was on the mound. In 2015, as he began to decline, the Mariners scored enough runs to give him an 18-9 record.

DeGrom seemed to get a roughly normal amount of support too before he emerged as a star in 2018, but ever since it has been a constant drumbeat of bad luck.

[Jockey]

It is phenomenal the lack of support he gets.  So far 2 S, 14 IP, 0.64 ERA 0 wins one loss.

Corbin Burnes says boo-hoo.

Two starts:
12.1IP   2 hits  0 BB  0.73 ERA   0.162 WHIP   20K    ----    0 Wins

[jsglow]

Corbin Burnes says boo-hoo.

Two starts:
12.1IP   2 hits  0 BB  0.73 ERA   0.162 WHIP   20K    ----    0 Wins

Brewer starting pitching has been historic so far this year.  But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.  Anyway, a 4-2 road trip is always welcome, especially against division rivals.

[Jockey]

Brewer starting pitching has been historic so far this year.  But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.  Anyway, a 4-2 road trip is always welcome, especially against division rivals.

Yeah, I would bet we will not see a string of 5 consecutive starts where the starting pitchers have given up a total of 1 earned run again. By any team.

But, If Freddy Peralta can keep his WHIP under 1.20, the Brewers big 3 rank right up there with any in baseball.

Except for St. Louis - cuz they do things the right way.

[dgies9156]

Bob Gibson had the same problem for the Cardinals in 1969 and 1970.

Run support was atrocious.

Steve Carlton for the Phillies in the early 1970s was the opposite. He pitched lights out but...

[CTWarrior]

I don't think we've seen anything like DeGrom before.  Since 2018, he has deserved and won two Cy Youngs, finished 3rd last year and so far this year has two starts with an 0.64 ERA.  That's 503 innings of 2.06 ERA baseball with roughly a 200 ERA+.   And the Mets have a losing record (36-42) when he starts a game over that time.   Being that kind of inept for a single pitcher over such a long stretch is hard to do.  Especially when you consider they have a better inning percentage (.491 vs .461) when he doesn't pitch. 

The Cards had a winning record and won more often when Gibson started in both 69 and 70, and he was not as good as DeGrom relative to the league in those seasons. 

The big difference is IP.  It's not just poor run support for DeGrom, it's that the bullpen has let him down.  Gibson didn't usually have that problem because he wasn't coming out if he was pitching well.

[Jockey]

I don't think we've seen anything like DeGrom before.  Since 2018, he has deserved and won two Cy Youngs, finished 3rd last year and so far this year has two starts with an 0.64 ERA.  That's 503 innings of 2.06 ERA baseball with roughly a 200 ERA+.   And the Mets have a losing record (36-42) when he starts a game over that time.   Being that kind of inept for a single pitcher over such a long stretch is hard to do.  Especially when you consider they have a better inning percentage (.491 vs .461) when he doesn't pitch. 

The Cards had a winning record and won more often when Gibson started in both 69 and 70, and he was not as good as DeGrom relative to the league in those seasons. 

The big difference is IP.  It's not just poor run support for DeGrom, it's that the bullpen has let him down.  Gibson didn't usually have that problem because he wasn't coming out if he was pitching well.

Sounds like a managerial problem. Remove a great pitcher for a mediocre one.

[Lennys Tap]

Except for St. Louis - cuz they do things the right way.
[/quote]

AND their pitchers get to throw to the incomparable Yadi.

[CreightonWarrior]

All this time I thought they put up nets to protect fans from foul balls. Turns out it’s just to protect them from Baez throws to first.

[MU82]

How about the way the umps totally screwed the pooch in last night’s Braves-Phillies game?

[Jockey]

All this time I thought they put up nets to protect fans from foul balls. Turns out it’s just to protect them from Baez throws to first.

He's gonna be in for a big surprise this offseason (contract-wise).

[JWags85]

He's gonna be in for a big surprise this offseason (contract-wise).

Meaning?

He’s coming off a GG even though he was terrible at the plate last summer.  He’s a 2 time AS in 4 full seasons. Unless he falls apart the rest of the year and bats sub .250 again, he’s still gonna get $20-25MM a year from someone.

He’s not getting Lindor or Tatis money, but he’s been open about not expecting to.

[Jockey]

Meaning?

He’s coming off a GG even though he was terrible at the plate last summer.  He’s a 2 time AS in 4 full seasons. Unless he falls apart the rest of the year and bats sub .250 again, he’s still gonna get $20-25MM a year from someone.

He’s not getting Lindor or Tatis money, but he’s been open about not expecting to.

He can't fall any more apart than he is right now. He is as lost as any hitter I have seen recently. I think he swung 11 times tonight - 9 got nothing but air. He looked awful swinging at a pitch that bounced a foot in front of the plate. But even that looked good compared to the wild pitch he swung at that bounced 4 feet in front of the plate. He's striking out in almost 50% of his ABs.

I can't see a team committing big money long term. I would expect 2-3 years at $12-$15 mil per unless he turns it around.

[#UnleashSean]

He can't fall any more apart than he is right now. He is as lost as any hitter I have seen recently. I think he swung 11 times tonight - 9 got nothing but air. He looked awful swinging at a pitch that bounced a foot in front of the plate. But even that looked good compared to the wild pitch he swung at that bounced 4 feet in front of the plate. He's striking out in almost 50% of his ABs.

I can't see a team committing big money long term. I would expect 2-3 years at $12-$15 mil per unless he turns it around.

It's not the 90s. Striking out in 2021 is perfectly fine now. All about launch angles and obp

[Jockey]

It's not the 90s. Striking out in 2021 is perfectly fine now. All about launch angles and obp

Striking out 30% may be OK. 48% definitely is not. He has never been a big OBP guy. But this year and last year combined, it is under .245. Needless to say, that is really, really bad.

[JWags85]

He can't fall any more apart than he is right now. He is as lost as any hitter I have seen recently. I think he swung 11 times tonight - 9 got nothing but air. He looked awful swinging at a pitch that bounced a foot in front of the plate. But even that looked good compared to the wild pitch he swung at that bounced 4 feet in front of the plate. He's striking out in almost 50% of his ABs.

I can't see a team committing big money long term. I would expect 2-3 years at $12-$15 mil per unless he turns it around.

His OBP is roughly .290 and his slugging is .515, when he was runner up for MVP, his OBP was .325 and he slugged just over .550. He’s also at a HR per 11 ABs.

He’s started a bit slow but his advanced hitting numbers aren’t terrible. And it’s 9 bleepin games into the season for a guy who has been a beast at the plate 2 of the last 3 seasons.  A bit early to pour dirt on his grave. Last year was a outlier for TONS of players.  Even Mike Trout’s numbers were markedly lower than almost any other decent year for him. Lumping it together with other years is silly.

Marcus Semian just signed an $18MM a year deal. A soon to be 32 year old DiDi Gregarious is on a $14MM a year deal.  Jean Segura’s annual salary is around $14.5.

Baez maybe not get 5-7 years, that I don’t entirely disagree with, but he’s not going to get less than $15MM a year unless he hits .215 and slugs under .375 again this year.  Especially if he’s in Gold Glove discussion again

[D'Lo Brown]

How about the way the umps totally screwed the pooch in last night’s Braves-Phillies game?

Braves fan here, that play was absurd, Braves commentary crew really let off some steam in Monday's broadcast even going so far as to side with Mattingly when he got tossed, asking for the rationale for a call being overturned. I think there's a legitimate gripe that the process is a complete black box, leading to zero accountability. Who is the review ump? What did they make their decision based on? Was it "confirmed" or "call stands"? They also mentioned that apparently the KBO has "4D" replay technology light years ahead of what MLB uses... Essentially musing on whether the rationale for keeping it a black box is to not bring any daylight to the incredibly outdated technology & process.

[Jockey]

His OBP is roughly .290 and his slugging is .515, when he was runner up for MVP, his OBP was .325 and he slugged just over .550. He’s also at a HR per 11 ABs.

He’s started a bit slow but his advanced hitting numbers aren’t terrible. And it’s 9 bleepin games into the season for a guy who has been a beast at the plate 2 of the last 3 seasons.  A bit early to pour dirt on his grave. Last year was a outlier for TONS of players.  Even Mike Trout’s numbers were markedly lower than almost any other decent year for him. Lumping it together with other years is silly.

Marcus Semian just signed an $18MM a year deal. A soon to be 32 year old DiDi Gregarious is on a $14MM a year deal.  Jean Segura’s annual salary is around $14.5.

Baez maybe not get 5-7 years, that I don’t entirely disagree with, but he’s not going to get less than $15MM a year unless he hits .215 and slugs under .375 again this year.  Especially if he’s in Gold Glove discussion again

I get what you’re saying, but something has gone wrong. It seems to be mental more than physical. He’s a different hitter that he was. As a young guy, I thought he could become Gary Sheffield-like. Now, he is closer to Mario Mendoza.

I hope he turns it around, cuz he is one the the really fun players to watch when he is playing well.

[cheebs09]

His OBP is roughly .290 and his slugging is .515, when he was runner up for MVP, his OBP was .325 and he slugged just over .550. He’s also at a HR per 11 ABs.

He’s started a bit slow but his advanced hitting numbers aren’t terrible. And it’s 9 bleepin games into the season for a guy who has been a beast at the plate 2 of the last 3 seasons.  A bit early to pour dirt on his grave. Last year was a outlier for TONS of players.  Even Mike Trout’s numbers were markedly lower than almost any other decent year for him. Lumping it together with other years is silly.

Marcus Semian just signed an $18MM a year deal. A soon to be 32 year old DiDi Gregarious is on a $14MM a year deal.  Jean Segura’s annual salary is around $14.5.

Baez maybe not get 5-7 years, that I don’t entirely disagree with, but he’s not going to get less than $15MM a year unless he hits .215 and slugs under .375 again this year.  Especially if he’s in Gold Glove discussion again

Don't forget his tags. Those are worth a couple million on their own.

[DegenerateDish]

No idea why, but right now FanDuel has Brewers moneyline at +190 tonight. Sprint to the window if you can.

[buckchuckler]

I wonder how many teams are spending big on SSs this offseason.  Seager, Story and Correa are all ahead of Baez you'd think. 

He could also have some guys just behind him like Semien and a couple of defensive wizards in Iglesias and Simmons.  It'll be an interesting market.

[JWags85]

I wonder how many teams are spending big on SSs this offseason.  Seager, Story and Correa are all ahead of Baez you'd think. 

He could also have some guys just behind him like Semien and a couple of defensive wizards in Iglesias and Simmons.  It'll be an interesting market.

Its very interesting, and I think a lot remains to be seen how this year shakes out.  There is a lot of recency bias.  Baez was terrible at the plate in 2020 by his standards, but we're not even 10% through the season.  Baez goes 3-4, 2-4, and 1-3 in a 3 game series and all of a sudden he's hitting .290 and rumors of his demise are forgotten.

Seager I'd agree with. He's quietly become arguably a top 3 SS.  Story if he stays in Colorado, definitely.  But Baez is a much better defender than both of them.

Correa I don't agree with.  He got most of his shine from those first 3 years.  He was pretty meh in 2018 which was his last full season.  Then up and down in 2019.  And again, not the fielder Baez is.

Again, this is all assuming Baez regains some semblance of himself at the plate.  He's had struggles that he's worked through, its not new.  He's always been confident and free swinging.  But those 4 will all make the market very competitive.  If not for COVID, Baez probably would have gotten a big deal in Chicago in the offseason and been locked up for the long haul.

Iglesias and Simmons are both older and light hitting, so they will be decently behind.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

After not attending a game since September, 2019, I went to the Sox/Indians game Monday night and the Cubs/Brewers game last night. Kudos to staff of both venues. It helps that the games were entertaining, but I was very impressed with the way both games were run in terms of entry/exiting, concessions, bathrooms, etc.

[wadesworld]

I love Woody telling the entire Cubs team “back the eff up you don’t want any of this smoke.” He was right. They were happy to act tough from a distance.

[wadesworld]

Wilson Contreras out of the lineup today too.