General College Basketball Thread 2020-2021

[Herman Cain]

Boston College will only be able to dress four scholarship players against FSU tomorrow night. What a joke that the ACC won't cancel it.

Will be a memorable experience for the Scout team kids

[brewcity77]

Those are usually sucker bets but this is an odd year. I think I would.

Agreed. Especially seeing what those two have done against other teams perceived to be contenders. Between the two of them, they only have one win decided by fewer than 8 points, GU's 5-point win over West Virginia. I really think those two are just in a different class. Really hope we get a matchup of unbeatens in the NCAA Final.

[rocky_warrior]

I really think those two are just in a different class. Really hope we get a matchup of unbeatens in the NCAA Final.

I expect you'll be disappointed. 

edit:  but hey, too bad their early season game was "postponed"

[brewcity77]

I expect you'll be disappointed. 

edit:  but hey, too bad their early season game was "postponed"

Odds would say I am disappointed, but the kenpom numbers are shocking. The difference in adjusted efficiency between Baylor and Gonzaga is less than a half-point (0.47 in favor of Baylor) but the difference to the next best team from #1 Baylor is over 7.2 points (6.8 from Gonzaga). For comparison, here's how far you have to go to find the team 7.2 point worse than the top team:

2020: #8 Michigan State
2019: #9 Purdue
2018: #5 Purdue
2017: #10 Oregon
2016: #7 Louisville
2015: #7 Gonzaga
2014: #13 Kentucky
2013: #7 Ohio State
2012: #7 Missouri
2011: #5 Texas
2010: #5 West Virginia
2009: #12 UCLA
2008: #5 Wisconsin
2007: #10 Duke
2006: #14 Ohio State
2005: #6 Oklahoma State
2004: #8 Georgia Tech
2003: #14 Mississippi State
2002: #8 Illinois

So the disparity between those top two teams and the rest of the field is historic by kenpom margins. Not only that, but of the 18 NCAA Tournaments played in that span, the eventual National Champion was within that margin 16 times. The only exceptions were 2011 UConn (-8.5) and 2014 UConn (-8.3). If we use that (admittedly arbitrary, but fairly reliable) 7.2 margin from the top team on down as the number of true National Championship contenders, since the NC winner comes from that group 88.9% of the time, that means there are only two NC contenders this year.

Well...given past history, I guess three, since you have to include UConn 

[MU82]

brew, I just hope they actually let everybody play the games instead of letting kenpom decide it.

[brewcity77]

brew, I just hope they actually let everybody play the games instead of letting kenpom decide it.

Sure, but one of the questions was Baylor/Gonzaga or the field. The statistical significance of those two teams disparity from the rest of college basketball seemed relevant in that context.

[DoctorV]

Odds would say I am disappointed, but the kenpom numbers are shocking. The difference in adjusted efficiency between Baylor and Gonzaga is less than a half-point (0.47 in favor of Baylor) but the difference to the next best team from #1 Baylor is over 7.2 points (6.8 from Gonzaga). For comparison, here's how far you have to go to find the team 7.2 point worse than the top team:

2020: #8 Michigan State
2019: #9 Purdue
2018: #5 Purdue
2017: #10 Oregon
2016: #7 Louisville
2015: #7 Gonzaga
2014: #13 Kentucky
2013: #7 Ohio State
2012: #7 Missouri
2011: #5 Texas
2010: #5 West Virginia
2009: #12 UCLA
2008: #5 Wisconsin
2007: #10 Duke
2006: #14 Ohio State
2005: #6 Oklahoma State
2004: #8 Georgia Tech
2003: #14 Mississippi State
2002: #8 Illinois

So the disparity between those top two teams and the rest of the field is historic by kenpom margins. Not only that, but of the 18 NCAA Tournaments played in that span, the eventual National Champion was within that margin 16 times. The only exceptions were 2011 UConn (-8.5) and 2014 UConn (-8.3). If we use that (admittedly arbitrary, but fairly reliable) 7.2 margin from the top team on down as the number of true National Championship contenders, since the NC winner comes from that group 88.9% of the time, that means there are only two NC contenders this year.

Well...given past history, I guess three, since you have to include UConn 

Awesome

[MU82]

Sure, but one of the questions was Baylor/Gonzaga or the field. The statistical significance of those two teams disparity from the rest of college basketball seemed relevant in that context.

Oh, I know you were just providing info. It's interesting to read.

[Billy Hoyle]

UNC has to cancel two hours before tipoff after video surfaces of players partying after beating a mediocre Duke squad:

The UNC men's basketball team's Monday night game against the Miami Hurricanes has been postponed, the ACC announced two hours before tipoff.

"The postponement follows a meeting of personnel from both schools, who mutually concluded the game could not move forward today," the conference said in a statement.

A video obtained by The Daily Tar Heel, UNC's student newspaper, showed two UNC players partying maskless alongside other students on Saturday after the Tar Heels' win over in-state rival Duke.

[UWW2MU]

Odds would say I am disappointed, but the kenpom numbers are shocking. The difference in adjusted efficiency between Baylor and Gonzaga is less than a half-point (0.47 in favor of Baylor) but the difference to the next best team from #1 Baylor is over 7.2 points (6.8 from Gonzaga). For comparison, here's how far you have to go to find the team 7.2 point worse than the top team:

2020: #8 Michigan State
2019: #9 Purdue
2018: #5 Purdue
2017: #10 Oregon
2016: #7 Louisville
2015: #7 Gonzaga
2014: #13 Kentucky
2013: #7 Ohio State
2012: #7 Missouri
2011: #5 Texas
2010: #5 West Virginia
2009: #12 UCLA
2008: #5 Wisconsin
2007: #10 Duke
2006: #14 Ohio State
2005: #6 Oklahoma State
2004: #8 Georgia Tech
2003: #14 Mississippi State
2002: #8 Illinois

So the disparity between those top two teams and the rest of the field is historic by kenpom margins. Not only that, but of the 18 NCAA Tournaments played in that span, the eventual National Champion was within that margin 16 times. The only exceptions were 2011 UConn (-8.5) and 2014 UConn (-8.3). If we use that (admittedly arbitrary, but fairly reliable) 7.2 margin from the top team on down as the number of true National Championship contenders, since the NC winner comes from that group 88.9% of the time, that means there are only two NC contenders this year.

Well...given past history, I guess three, since you have to include UConn 

I can't help but wonder if the lack of inter-conference play has really jacked with the analytics this year.  I'm sure they've run the numbers to make sure things are statistically significant... but they sure haven't made them public. 

[Herman Cain]

UNC has to cancel two hours before tipoff after video surfaces of players partying after beating a mediocre Duke squad:

The UNC men's basketball team's Monday night game against the Miami Hurricanes has been postponed, the ACC announced two hours before tipoff.

"The postponement follows a meeting of personnel from both schools, who mutually concluded the game could not move forward today," the conference said in a statement.

A video obtained by The Daily Tar Heel, UNC's student newspaper, showed two UNC players partying maskless alongside other students on Saturday after the Tar Heels' win over in-state rival Duke.

UNC has been sending out countless email to Athletes and Their Families urging them to take precautions, but I guess the joy of beating Duke overwhelmed all the best laid plains of virus management.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

UNC has to cancel two hours before tipoff after video surfaces of players partying after beating a mediocre Duke squad:

The UNC men's basketball team's Monday night game against the Miami Hurricanes has been postponed, the ACC announced two hours before tipoff.

"The postponement follows a meeting of personnel from both schools, who mutually concluded the game could not move forward today," the conference said in a statement.

A video obtained by The Daily Tar Heel, UNC's student newspaper, showed two UNC players partying maskless alongside other students on Saturday after the Tar Heels' win over in-state rival Duke.

If the NCAAT is going to be in  bubble or modified bubble, should a team's demonstrated inability to take COVID precautions be a factor when it comes time to issue invitations?

[MU82]

First time Duke and Kentucky both under .500 since1974 (per ESPN).

[MuggsyB]

Huggy is furious after his team allowed an easy dunk.  It appears he has not gotten on the treadmill during the C-19 lockdown.  Love the guy but I'm concerned his health.  315-330 easily right now.

[wadesworld]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/watch-texas-tech-coach-chris-beard-sits-on-floor-bumps-fists-with-bob-huggins-to-earn-hilarious-ejection/

The best part is he goes over to fistbump Huggy.  You know Huggy was loving it.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Really good article on why college basketball stinks this year.

https://robdauster.substack.com/p/hitting-the-pandemic-wall?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNjE4NjAwLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozMjQ5NTQ4MywiXyI6IjFsYjRPIiwiaWF0IjoxNjEzMjI3ODUwLCJleHAiOjE2MTMyMzE0NTAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi03OTI1MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.rHRfyKiMmgg2WT9ES4Wh_zLY4-Qi13wr4U0IfS9fpyI

[tower912]

I am glad someone is writing the obvious.   But, along with so many other things COVID related, it will need to be discussed further in hindsight.   

[Billy Hoyle]

Really good article on why college basketball stinks this year.

https://robdauster.substack.com/p/hitting-the-pandemic-wall?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNjE4NjAwLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozMjQ5NTQ4MywiXyI6IjFsYjRPIiwiaWF0IjoxNjEzMjI3ODUwLCJleHAiOjE2MTMyMzE0NTAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi03OTI1MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.rHRfyKiMmgg2WT9ES4Wh_zLY4-Qi13wr4U0IfS9fpyI

This guy seems to be angling for a job with The Defector and their ‘Death to the NCAA’” series.

[MuggsyB]

Loyola v Drake on ESPN 2.  Is this an audition?

[4everwarriors]

Drake's a better team, hey?

[MuggsyB]

Two pretty good teams. Drake is missing a key player. 

[MuggsyB]

Wow Drake had three consecutive E8's? Back when MU was dominating the world.  I had no idea.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Top 16 seeds are out just now on CBS

Top 16 is below:

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
5. Illinois
6. Villanova
7. Alabama
8. Houston
9. Virginia
10. West Virginia
11. Tennessee
12. Oklahoma
13. Iowa
14. Texas Tech
15. Texas
16. Missouri

[MU82]

Soft rims at Drake.

Drake is playing well, given that they are missing one of their top players. I like their quickness.

A guy who wasn't good enough to play at Seton Hall is one of Drake's better players.

Really bad 'stache on the Loyola center who shot an airball on a 3-foot hook shot.

Both teams seem well-enough coached so far. Some sloppy turnovers, but that happens.

[MuggsyB]

Soft rims at Drake.

Drake is playing well, given that they are missing one of their top players. I like their quickness.

A guy who wasn't good enough to play at Seton Hall is one of Drake's better players.

Really bad 'stache on the Loyola center who shot an airball on a 3-foot hook shot.

Both teams seem well-enough coached so far. Some sloppy turnovers, but that happens.

I would love to have that Ramblers center on MU.  Krutwig is very good and consistent.