General Big East Thread 20-21

[MuggsyB]

4

I assume we want X to beat the Dence?

[Mr. Nielsen]

I assume we want X to beat the Dence?

Yes.

[Billy Hoyle]

3 big east teams in the tourney?

UConn not a lock yet. Look out for this Saturday

[brewcity77]

3 big east teams in the tourney?

If we beat Connecticut, it's a very real possibility. And while I didn't think there was any way a week ago, there's a realistic path to just two bids as 'Nova and Creighton are pretty solidly in. But if...

• UConn loses to Marquette and at Seton Hall before beating Georgetown...
  
• Seton Hall beats UConn but loses to St. John's...
  
• Xavier loses to Providence, at Creighton, and either at Georgetown or Marquette...

This is a two-bid league. And the most likely third team just might end up Marquette, if they managed to knock off UConn and Xavier in the above scenarios while also getting revenge on DePaul. This league is just terrible.

[DoctorV]

I assume we want X to beat the Dence?

Not quite sure on that. Great night for MUs NET if you hold on to any tourney dreams. Beating UNC with a wide margin, combined with a fairly comfortable Butler win (who MU has swept), combined with a Providence win (who MU has beaten) is pretty much the best combination of results possible.

I'd expect a jump to the mid 80s in the NET, with a win Saturday moving Marquette up into the 70s.

The NET is easily the biggest hindrance to MUs bid if they get enough wins so any additional spots of improvement help.

[MuggsyB]

Not quite sure on that. Great night for MUs NET if you hold on to any tourney dreams. Beating UNC with a wide margin, combined with a fairly comfortable Butler win (who MU has swept), combined with a Providence win (who MU has beaten) is pretty much the best combination of results possible.

I'd expect a jump to the mid 80s in the NET, with a win Saturday moving Marquette up into the 70s.

The NET is easily the biggest hindrance to MUs bid if they get enough wins so any additional spots of improvement help.

Saturday is the key DoctorV.  I think we will win out before the BET if we take out UCONN.  Now that doesn't mean we are a tourney team unless we win the BET but I do think we are capable of winning out.

[DoctorV]

If we beat Connecticut, it's a very real possibility. And while I didn't think there was any way a week ago, there's a realistic path to just two bids as 'Nova and Creighton are pretty solidly in. But if...

• UConn loses to Marquette and at Seton Hall before beating Georgetown...
  
• Seton Hall beats UConn but loses to St. John's...
  
• Xavier loses to Providence, at Creighton, and either at Georgetown or Marquette...

This is a two-bid league. And the most likely third team just might end up Marquette, if they managed to knock off UConn and Xavier in the above scenarios while also getting revenge on DePaul. This league is just terrible.

Brew you seem pretty confident in MUs chances if they win out and get a few in the BET, but what about that 50 spot gap between Marquette and UConn, SH, and X in the NET?

15-20 spots of that gap might be closed tonight but even in best case scenarios it would seem hard for MU to jump ahead of those three.
I understand the big Q1 wins with UW and CU but the NET is the NCAAs tool after all

[MU82]

I don't know what Kunkel has done tonight - I'm guessing not much - but since he threw in that lucky-ass 3 against us, he's .226 from 3 going into tonight. He had 22 against us but only one other game with more than 8.

Not that I'm bitter or anything.

[MuggsyB]

This is a 2 bid league right now imo.  I know people don't want to hear this and maybe it's a soft bubble but there is no way either UCONN or XU are locks.

[Johnny B]

I don't know what Kunkel has done tonight - I'm guessing not much - but since he threw in that lucky-ass 3 against us, he's .226 from 3 going into tonight. He had 22 against us but only one other game with more than 8.

Not that I'm bitter or anything.

lol called it. bs

[wadesworld]

Like 8 days ago we were discussing how we were not going to win another game. Now we're discussing winning out. I love Scoop.

[MuggsyB]

Like 8 days ago we were discussing how we were not going to win another game. Now we're discussing winning out. I love Scoop.

Fair point and I'm guilty but watching these teams there is no doubt we are capable of winning out.

[nyg]

I don't know what Kunkel has done tonight - I'm guessing not much - but since he threw in that lucky-ass 3 against us, he's .226 from 3 going into tonight. He had 22 against us but only one other game with more than 8.

Not that I'm bitter or anything.

That shot, after big MU lead, Pulley going off for 22 second half points after big MU lead, home losses to DePaul and SJU were the four deal season breaker losses. 

[DoctorV]

Saturday is the key DoctorV.  I think we will win out before the BET if we take out UCONN.  Now that doesn't mean we are a tourney team unless we win the BET but I do think we are capable of winning out.

I'm just happy Saturday now has some added importance and I can enjoy some sun, several scotches/IPAs, a cigar, and a valuable MUbb game.

A win Saturday would feel great and then one at a time. I'm trying to convince myself that if MU wins out in the regular season they can get to the finals of the BET and make the dance without the auto bid but I'm not quite there yet.

I do think playing, and obviously beating, Georgetown would help and could be the difference with that .500 conf record, some quality wins, and a deep run in the conf tourney

[Mr. Nielsen]

This is a 2 bid league right now imo.  I know people don't want to hear this and maybe it's a soft bubble but there is no way either UCONN or XU are locks.

Of course they are not locks. These bubble teams like SH, St. John's are blowing chances versus teams like DePAUL, Georgetown, Butler. Now, Xavier is 1-3 since the Covid break.

[MuggsyB]

I don't know what Kunkel has done tonight - I'm guessing not much - but since he threw in that lucky-ass 3 against us, he's .226 from 3 going into tonight. He had 22 against us but only one other game with more than 8.

Not that I'm bitter or anything.

I stated this would happen 10 mins after the end of that game.   Pisses me off that I was right.

[MuggsyB]

Of course they are not locks. These bubble teams like SH, St. John's are blowing chances versus teams like DePAUL, Georgetown, Butler. Now, Xavier is 1-3 since the Covid break.

I am biased but believe we are the 4th best talent-wise in this league.  I'll slot us behind UCONN if Bouk was healthy.  The two losses to the Hall are beyond upsetting. 

[MU82]

Lots of upsetting losses, Muggs. It was that kind of season.

Sometimes, there are games where you can't do anything right and it just feels like even when you have a little run, you can't sustain anything, and the other team just blows you out. Louisville no doubt felt like that against UNC. And we felt like that twice against Nova.

Well, that's how this entire season has been for us. Just couldn't ever really get anything going.

It's not an excuse. I still think Wojo should be fired, even though I doubt he will be. It's just what happened.

I try not to do too much "what-iffing" because it just frustrates the heck out of me!

[brewcity77]

Brew you seem pretty confident in MUs chances if they win out and get a few in the BET, but what about that 50 spot gap between Marquette and UConn, SH, and X in the NET?

15-20 spots of that gap might be closed tonight but even in best case scenarios it would seem hard for MU to jump ahead of those three.
I understand the big Q1 wins with UW and CU but the NET is the NCAAs tool after all

I'm expecting a big jump tomorrow. Probably low 80s. Had we held onto the early margin, we might've cracked the 70s. I feel like it's easier for big margins of victory to lead to big NET jumps than it is in metrics like kenpom. I think that's because the so-called "10-point cap" actually gives you extra points for wins, with any double-digit wins getting the biggest boost.

Tonight's win was probably 22 points better than expected, and with the double-digit win, we'll jump nicely come morning, I expect. Do something similar against UConn and we'll jump further. Both the DePaul and Xavier wins are close to 50/50 games so if we win, those will also move us up some.

We've already seen low NET teams get at-large bids. See ASU (63) and St. John's (73) in 2019. If we have 5+ Quadrant 1 wins with no more than the one bad loss (DePaul) I like our chances. We still need to get to 16-13 just to have a record worth putting in (I'd be worried if I were Indiana at 12-11, despite some nice wins) but the path is there. Win to the semis (I don't believe it, but for the sake of argument) and they'll have enough quality on the resume to at least get their metrics into the 50s-60s and more quality at the top of the resume than anyone else on the bubble.

[MuggsyB]

XU's unis????

WTH?

[JWags85]

XU's unis????

WTH?

I guess Xabier had gold as part of their color scheme...for 3-4 seasons in the mid 70s...when they were an independent...and never finished above .500 or made the post season.  What a bizarre era throwback to embrace

[MuggsyB]

I thought Creighton was playing some team in the B-West.

[wadesworld]

Creighton in double bonus while they have been called for 2 fouls in the second half.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Giant win for Xavier. They will be in the NCAA Tournament barring they crap out versus Georgetown and Marquette next week.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Xavier 77 Creighton 69