2020-21 NFL Season

[Dish]

That Watt contract is a monstrosity, $23 mil guaranteed for 2 years. Good for him getting a massive above market deal, but if I'm a Packers/Bills fan, your team is way better off today not having that ridiculous contract on the books.

I honestly thought it was a typo when I read it.

[Herman Cain]

Tremendous deal for JJ Watt. JJ extracted top dollar and a great location in Phoenix , also the Cardinals 2021 schedule is very favorable in terms of playing in warm weather.

Arizona was 8-8 in 2020 so if JJ can help win a few more games and get the team in the playoffs then maybe he is worth it to the Cardinals.


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[Dish]

Tremendous deal for JJ Watt. JJ extracted top dollar and a great location in Phoenix , also the Cardinals 2021 schedule is very favorable in terms of playing in warm weather.

Arizona was 8-8 in 2020 so if JJ can help win a few more games and get the team in the playoffs then maybe he is worth it to the Cardinals.


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You missed at Cleveland, which will be their 17th game.

[Herman Cain]

You missed at Cleveland, which will be their 17th game.

Hopefully that one will be early in the year.

[JWags85]

That Watt contract is a monstrosity, $23 mil guaranteed for 2 years. Good for him getting a massive above market deal, but if I'm a Packers/Bills fan, you're team is way better off today not having that ridiculous contract on the books.

I honestly thought it was a typo when I read it.

Top 10 money at his position for a guy who hasn't been dominant since 2015, and has only been good one season out of the last 5, constantly injured, and on the wrong side of 30.  His agent is a wizard.

In other news, Tom Herman to the Bears as an offensive assistant.  Kind of interesting yet doubt he has a ton of impact.  However, The Admiral and Polekatz are now in stiff competition for a new VIP customer

[Pakuni]

Top 10 money at his position for a guy who hasn't been dominant since 2015, and has only been good one season out of the last 5, constantly injured, and on the wrong side of 30.  His agent is a wizard.

He's been a lot better than you're giving him credit for.
He's not what he was five years ago, but according to Pro Football Focus' metrics, he's been top 10 at his position each of the past three seasons.
Whether he can still be top 10 the next two seasons is a good question, but he's been very good of late.

@PFF
Feb 12

Every season J.J. Watt has qualified, he has finished as a top-10 player at his position:
2011 - 75.1 (8th)
2012 - 92.3 (2nd)
2013 - 93.2 (1st)
2014 - 92.7 (1st)
2015 - 91.6 (2nd)
2018 - 90.5 (3rd)
2019 - 87.0 (9th)
2020 - 85.5 (7th)

[Jockey]

Top 10 money at his position for a guy who hasn't been dominant since 2015, and has only been good one season out of the last 5, constantly injured, and on the wrong side of 30.  His agent is a wizard.

In other news, Tom Herman to the Bears as an offensive assistant.  Kind of interesting yet doubt he has a ton of impact.  However, The Admiral and Polekatz are now in stiff competition for a new VIP customer

Watt is still a very good, borderline Pro-Bowler. The problem is injuries. Lots of them + he is getting older and older players don't generally get healthier. For 2 years / $16 Mil, I would have loved him in GB. For the money he got? No way you pay that for a guy whose ability to stay on the field is questionable.

[jficke13]

He's been a lot better than you're giving him credit for.
He's not what he was five years ago, but according to Pro Football Focus' metrics, he's been top 10 at his position each of the past three seasons.
Whether he can still be top 10 the next two seasons is a good question, but he's been very good of late.

@PFF
Feb 12

Every season J.J. Watt has qualified, he has finished as a top-10 player at his position:
2011 - 75.1 (8th)
2012 - 92.3 (2nd)
2013 - 93.2 (1st)
2014 - 92.7 (1st)
2015 - 91.6 (2nd)
2018 - 90.5 (3rd)
2019 - 87.0 (9th)
2020 - 85.5 (7th)

Someone pointed out his PFF position rank earlier in his free agency and I had the same reaction then as I'm having now... I'm not an analytics wonk, but he sure didn't seem like the 7th best DE in the NFL last year. Earlier in his career, the PFF rank bore out the reality that he shifted the field around him (like when he was PFF #1 in '14, and '14), but after the Packers played the Texans this year I was texting my friends saying "Watt isn't what he used to be." Maybe I'm wrong, maybe with a better team around him he returns to being a world beater, but that's a lot of money to pay an aging, oft-injured, guy.

Does anyone know how PFF runs its numbers? Is this one of those things like how Kenpom's algos routinely overrate the badgers?

[JWags85]

Someone pointed out his PFF position rank earlier in his free agency and I had the same reaction then as I'm having now... I'm not an analytics wonk, but he sure didn't seem like the 7th best DE in the NFL last year. Earlier in his career, the PFF rank bore out the reality that he shifted the field around him (like when he was PFF #1 in '14, and '14), but after the Packers played the Texans this year I was texting my friends saying "Watt isn't what he used to be." Maybe I'm wrong, maybe with a better team around him he returns to being a world beater, but that's a lot of money to pay an aging, oft-injured, guy.

Does anyone know how PFF runs its numbers? Is this one of those things like how Kenpom's algos routinely overrate the badgers?

Id be curious too, cause his raw numbers in 19 and 20 weren't all that great comparatively.  2019 he only averaged a sack every other game and no additional TFL.  Somehow thats top 10 worthy?

And not for nothing, regardless of comparative ranking, there is VERY clear downward trend in that PFF score year over year.  When you're projecting out if he's worth almost $12 a year guaranteed over the next 2.

Then again, Watt's best season in recent memory was 2018 where he was playing with Clowney.  Now he gets to play with Chandler Jones who has a similar effect on the game.  Plus Isaiah Simmons behind them.

[Uncle Rico]

JJ Watt is a hard working guy who puts team and teammates first before JJ Watt.  JJ Watt has never made it about JJ Watt.  JJ Watt has made sure to let everyone know JJ Watt is only as good as his teammates and coaches.  JJ Watt only cares about winning football games with JJ Watt's teammates.

[wadesworld]

He was the most double teamed defensive player in the NFL last season.  I'm guessing that helps his grades.

[hairy worthen]

JJ Watt is a hard working guy who puts team and teammates first before JJ Watt.  JJ Watt has never made it about JJ Watt.  JJ Watt has made sure to let everyone know JJ Watt is only as good as his teammates and coaches.  JJ Watt only cares about winning football games with JJ Watt's teammates.

And this is why I wanted him on Packers.

However that money is not worth it. Cardinals  taking a risk for sure but they have qb on rookie contract so they can afford the gamble.

[Pakuni]

Does anyone know how PFF runs its numbers? Is this one of those things like how Kenpom's algos routinely overrate the badgers?

Basically, their grading system favors consistently beating your man and executing your assignment over stats and highlight reel plays. The theory being those plays can be the result of luck - a missed assignment along the offensive line or another defensive lineman forcing the QB to scramble into your arms could lead to a sack when the defensive lineman really did nothing exceptional - whereas winning or losing your assignment is largely within the player's control.
They re-watch the game and grade each player play-by-play based on how well or poorly the assignment was executed.
It's not a perfect system, and I find some of their grading odd at times, but it's more objective and worthwhile than only considering sacks or some other statistic. 

Here's a more detailed explanation:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-we-grade-offensive-and-defensive-linemen

[JWags85]

And this is why I wanted him on Packers.

However that money is not worth it. Cardinals  taking a risk for sure but they have qb on rookie contract so they can afford the gamble.

You missed his point completely

[hairy worthen]

You missed his point completely

Ok,  I get it now, didnt read it close enough. (Few drinks in) I am not sure I agree though. The media made it a big  deal, Watt played along to some degree. Ok. He has earned it. At the end of the day he is a positive influence for a team.

[JWags85]

Ok,  I get now didnt read it close enough. (Few drinks in) I am not sure I agree though. The media made it a big  deal, Watt played along to some degree. Ok. He has earned it. At the end of the day he is a positive influence for a team.

He's a great player, but nobody loves JJ Watt the persona more than JJ Watt. Like his "rugged rural cabin" where he works out during the offseason...that's actually a multi million dollar Pewaukee lake house. Or his absurd performance during Hard Knocks.

He's a good teammate, but if you want to know how hard he works or what a great teammate he is...ask JJ, he'll be the first to tell you.  FIGJAM personified

[#UnleashSean]

Id be curious too, cause his raw numbers in 19 and 20 weren't all that great comparatively.  2019 he only averaged a sack every other game and no additional TFL.  Somehow thats top 10 worthy?

And not for nothing, regardless of comparative ranking, there is VERY clear downward trend in that PFF score year over year.  When you're projecting out if he's worth almost $12 a year guaranteed over the next 2.

Then again, Watt's best season in recent memory was 2018 where he was playing with Clowney.  Now he gets to play with Chandler Jones who has a similar effect on the game.  Plus Isaiah Simmons behind them.

Sacks and tfls are really random stats honestly. Defense is much more of a collective team than offense and stats don't tell much of a tale.

A lot of great defenders are guys who get limited stats because offenses won't go there way.

[JWags85]

Sacks and tfls are really random stats honestly. Defense is much more of a collective team than offense and stats don't tell much of a tale.

A lot of great defenders are guys who get limited stats because offenses won't go there way.

I don't disagree. I just mention cause all of his "best" seasons that got him all the accolades and reputation were gaudy stat seasons. He was never just an attention drawer/disruptor, he was a dude who threw up huge defensive stat numbers

[Hards Alumni]

Ok,  I get it now, didnt read it close enough. (Few drinks in) I am not sure I agree though. The media made it a big  deal, Watt played along to some degree. Ok. He has earned it. At the end of the day he is a positive influence for a team.

JJ loves the cameras.

[Dish]

I endorse the Ravens overtime proposal for Spot & Choose as opposed to a coin flip. Would make for some interesting strategy and remove luck from who gets the ball first.

[MU82]

All that talk about the NFL being in danger of falling out of the TV-rights stratosphere?

Never mind.

Apparently athletes who take a knee for the anthem, owners who take social-rights stances, and any of the other bashing points du jour are not deterring those who are clamoring to pay ever bigly to televise games.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669084-amazon-in-talks-for-more-exclusive-nfl-games-most-tv-rights-fees-set-to-double-wsj?mail_subject=amzn-dis-amazon-in-talks-for-more-exclusive-nfl-games-most-tv-rights-fees-set-to-double-wsj&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

Amazon.com is in talks with the NFL to carry more exclusive games, as high-profile rights talks are shaping up for TV networks to pay nearly twice as much as they currently do, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Those new deals may arrive as early as next week, according to the report.

An Amazon deal wouldn't take effect until Fox's deal for Thursday night games - currently valued at $660M/season - expires after the 2022 season. But it could see the retail behemoth making its biggest move into streaming. And more exclusive games means Amazon might pay $1B or more.

Deals with CBS and NBC also wouldn't kick in until after the 2022-2023 season, but a new deal with ESPN would go into effective after the 2021-2022 season. Most of the deals are likely to run as long as 11 years, according to the report.

Fox's annual average fee for Sunday afternoon games is expected to jump to around $2B from a current $1.1B, while CBS would similarly see its Sunday afternoon fees per season go from the $1B to the $2B range. And NBC's deal would more than double from an average $960M to around $2b.

[Pakuni]

I endorse the Ravens overtime proposal for Spot & Choose as opposed to a coin flip. Would make for some interesting strategy and remove luck from who gets the ball first.

Sure, but if you want to eliminate luck, get rid of the opening coin toss also. The team that wins the opening coin toss wins the game at about the same rate as the team that wins the OT coin toss.
Just let the home team decide and it will all even out in the regular season, and be an added incentive for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

[Uncle Rico]

Sure, but if you want to eliminate luck, get rid of the opening coin toss also. The team that wins the opening coin toss wins the game at about the same rate as the team that wins the OT coin toss.
Just let the home team decide and it will all even out in the regular season, and be an added incentive for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

How would 17 games change that equation?  Some teams are playing an extra road game

[Pakuni]

How would 17 games change that equation?  Some teams are playing an extra road game

It would even out every other year, I suppose.

[jesmu84]

Dish,

Would love your insight on Bears QB search. Media is sure making it sound like Bears are offering the most for Watson and Russ