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Author Topic: The Future of Basketball  (Read 3355 times)

Heisenberg v2.0

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The Future of Basketball
« on: September 09, 2020, 04:46:33 PM »
The NBA leads, College and High School follows.

Or ... Markus Howard is the future, not an abberation.

NBA playoff success has never been so dependent on 3s
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29839123/nba-playoff-success-never-dependent-3s

For the first time in NBA history, 3-point shooters are outscoring paint scorers. Coming into Tuesday's games, playoff scorers had yielded 4,602 points via 3s and 4,512 points in the paint. This fact is more than just trivia. It reveals that games are being won and lost far away from the rim -- and that represents a paradigm shift in pro basketball.

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1303678019735891969?s=20

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1303678018037133313?s=20

MikeDeanesDarkGlasses

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2020, 05:04:46 PM »
Markus Howard isn't the future because the league is getting bigger at the guard position, not smaller. 

Uncle Rico

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2020, 05:20:11 PM »
The NBA leads, College and High School follows.

Or ... Markus Howard is the future, not an abberation.

NBA playoff success has never been so dependent on 3s
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29839123/nba-playoff-success-never-dependent-3s

For the first time in NBA history, 3-point shooters are outscoring paint scorers. Coming into Tuesday's games, playoff scorers had yielded 4,602 points via 3s and 4,512 points in the paint. This fact is more than just trivia. It reveals that games are being won and lost far away from the rim -- and that represents a paradigm shift in pro basketball.

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1303678019735891969?s=20

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1303678018037133313?s=20

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tower912

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2020, 06:13:12 PM »
10 ft rims.
15 ft foul line.
94 ft long. 
Three point minutely adjusting.
Occasional adjustment to shot clock.
Defensive rules changed to either help or hinder offense.
Big rewarded
Fast rewarded.
Good shooting rewarded
The combo is best.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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BLM

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2020, 06:16:25 PM »
Superbar.
Black Lives Matter

oldwarrior81

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2020, 07:02:15 PM »
of all field goal attempts in the NBA this past season, 38.4% were threes.

In 2015, threes made up 26.8% of all attempts.  Over a 50% increase in three attempts.
The percent made is pretty much unchanged over the past 15 years.  This year threes were made at 35.8%.  Over 15 years, the low was 34.9% in 2012, the high 36.7% in 2009.

One number that really has changed is the convert rate of 2 point attempts.  From 48.5% in 2015 to a record 52.4% this season.  Back in 2004 the make rate was 46%

For every 100 threes shot (@ 35.8%) the resulting points would be 107.4.   For every 100 twos shot (@ 52.4%) the resulting points would be 104.8.

What I think we're seeing is obviously the increase in number of threes shot, but at the expense of long/bad twos.

4everwarriors

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2020, 07:09:44 PM »
Markus Howard isn't the future because the league is getting bigger at the guard position, not smaller.




Howard can't check Herro, hey?
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MikeDeanesDarkGlasses

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2020, 07:43:25 PM »



Howard can't check Herro, hey?

Kind of hard to in the G league or overseas.

We R Final Four

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2020, 09:47:01 PM »
Perfect—in this corner...Deane’s glasses hating EVERYTHING that has to do with MUBB.....
And in this corner.....Doc hating all things Wojo and under the belief that Herro was minutes from coming to MU and lighting it up......but Coach Wojo told him to F off!
This is great.

Shooter McGavin

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2020, 06:39:52 AM »
Perfect—in this corner...Deane’s glasses hating EVERYTHING that has to do with MUBB.....
And in this corner.....Doc hating all things Wojo and under the belief that Herro was minutes from coming to MU and lighting it up......but Coach Wojo told him to F off!
This is great.

That sums it up nicely.  Well done.

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2020, 07:08:17 AM »
Postseason 3s

2013-14: 44.6 3s per game | 27.9% of total shots
2014-15: 51.1 | 30.2%
2015-16: 51.5 | 31.0%
2016-17: 58.2 | 34.8%
2017-18: 59.8 | 35.5%
2018-19: 65.9 | 37.9%
2019-20: 74.8 | 43.4%

The 3-point revolution isn't slowing down or even plateauing. It's ramping up and reforming conventional wisdom at breakneck speed. Is this even the same sport?

Uncle Rico

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2020, 07:23:24 AM »
Postseason 3s

2013-14: 44.6 3s per game | 27.9% of total shots
2014-15: 51.1 | 30.2%
2015-16: 51.5 | 31.0%
2016-17: 58.2 | 34.8%
2017-18: 59.8 | 35.5%
2018-19: 65.9 | 37.9%
2019-20: 74.8 | 43.4%

The 3-point revolution isn't slowing down or even plateauing. It's ramping up and reforming conventional wisdom at breakneck speed. Is this even the same sport?

All sports change and evolve.!!
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Uncle Rico

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2020, 07:24:20 AM »
Perfect—in this corner...Deane’s glasses hating EVERYTHING that has to do with MUBB.....
And in this corner.....Doc hating all things Wojo and under the belief that Herro was minutes from coming to MU and lighting it up......but Coach Wojo told him to F off!
This is great.

Anytime you can take shots at a kid that gave his heart and soul to the program and represented his university very well off the court, you take that shot
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Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2020, 08:33:58 AM »
All sports change and evolve.!!

Yes, but is this a good or bad evolution?  Does this long range game make it more or less watchable?

If more, should the NBA add a 30 or 35 foot four-point line?  If you like the long-range game ... go big!

If less, should the NBA move the three-point line back about 3 to 5 feet to get back to the mid-range/inside game?


dgies9156

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2020, 09:21:08 AM »
Look, there is no better endorsement of what Marquette is trying to do than to have Markus Howard sticking with an NBA team. He is one of the greats of our program and he continues to distinguish himself.

That said, I have my doubts. I trust I am wrong, but Mr. Howard's size will be a detriment. People have overcome it but it's a major obstacle. There aren't many Mugsy Bouges in the league anymore.

Uncle Rico

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2020, 09:23:59 AM »
Yes, but is this a good or bad evolution?  Does this long range game make it more or less watchable?

If more, should the NBA add a 30 or 35 foot four-point line?  If you like the long-range game ... go big!

If less, should the NBA move the three-point line back about 3 to 5 feet to get back to the mid-range/inside game?

There will be some innovation to take the game back inside
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2020, 09:39:52 AM »
There will be some innovation to take the game back inside


I'm not sure innovation is the right word.  Math is math, and as long as players can hit the 3 pointer at a reasonable clip, it's going to win the EFG argument.

What would change it are rules changes.  Lengthen the three point line.  Grow the under the basket arc bigger to make charging fouls harder. 

Other than that, I don't see how the game can innovate to allow two pointers to become more efficient than threes.
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GooooMarquette

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2020, 10:27:22 AM »
You can extend the three-point arc as far back as you want, but unless you want to eliminate the corner altogether, there will always be the corner three that can't get any further back than it is.

As far as re-emphasizing two-point shots, I don't think the problem is lack of shots 'around the hoop,' I think it's lack of midrange shots. I don't see how increasing the arc or enforcing charging fouls more will encourage more 15-footers, and I honestly don't know what will....

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2020, 11:09:54 AM »
We are dancing around the main question ... do you think the NBA encourage a return of the inside/mid-range game?

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2020, 11:36:09 AM »
We are dancing around the main question ... do you think the NBA encourage a return of the inside/mid-range game?


Doubtful.  I think they like the higher scoring, shoot from anywhere version of the NBA. 
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ATL MU Warrior

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2020, 11:42:45 AM »

Doubtful.  I think they like the higher scoring, shoot from anywhere version of the NBA.
I agree with them.  IMO the current version of the game is much more entertaining than a post-oriented back to the basket style. 

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2020, 12:06:08 PM »
I think there is a lot of nostalgia for how the game was played in the 90s, fueled in part by the Jordan series from earlier this summer, but by and large the NBA of that time was pretty difficult to watch.  I don't need to see basketball like the Knicks and Pistons played make a comeback. 
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

Warrior Code

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2020, 12:40:32 PM »
Kind of a side note, but I wonder if this will eventually change the way we look at stats as well. Scoring 30 in a 92-89 game is a higher percentage of your team's points than scoring 30 in a 122-119 game.
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WhiteTrash

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2020, 12:41:18 PM »
I think there is a lot of nostalgia for how the game was played in the 90s, fueled in part by the Jordan series from earlier this summer, but by and large the NBA of that time was pretty difficult to watch.  I don't need to see basketball like the Knicks and Pistons played make a comeback.
Doesn't that make Jordan's accomplishments more impressive? I know that's not your point, but the man was great.

Galway Eagle

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2020, 12:49:53 PM »
I think there is a lot of nostalgia for how the game was played in the 90s, fueled in part by the Jordan series from earlier this summer, but by and large the NBA of that time was pretty difficult to watch.  I don't need to see basketball like the Knicks and Pistons played make a comeback.

I think that was likely the deepest talent of "all time greats" between Bird, Johnson and Isaiah Thomas toward the end of their careers, guys like Shaq and Duncan beginning theirs and all the dream team guys peaking, not to mention guys like Reggie Miller or Hakeem who were unreal but not even a part of that immortal squad and that's why people dream for those days again. But by and large you're right though it was better than the early 2000s iso ball and head cases all over that was truly painful to watch.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 01:23:24 PM by Galway Eagle »

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #25 on: September 10, 2020, 01:19:59 PM »
I think that was likely the deepest talent of "all time greats" between Bird, Johnson and Iverson toward the end of their careers, guys like Shaq and Duncan beginning theirs and all the dream team guys peaking, not to mention guys like Reggie Miller or Hakeem who were unreal but not even a part of that immortal squad and that's why people dream for those days again. But by and large you're right though it was better than the early 2000s iso ball and head cases all over that was truly painful to watch.


Iverson wasn't a contemporary of Bird and Magic.

But I really don't agree with your premise.  I think the talent in the NBA now is at an all time high.  I think its nostalgia that is putting last generation's players on a pedestal. 
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

Galway Eagle

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #26 on: September 10, 2020, 01:22:49 PM »

Iverson wasn't a contemporary of Bird and Magic.

But I really don't agree with your premise.  I think the talent in the NBA now is at an all time high.  I think its nostalgia that is putting last generation's players on a pedestal.

Hahaha I was think Isaiah Thomas but was already into my point about non stop ISO plays and immediately thought iverson. My bad

DFW HOYA

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #27 on: September 10, 2020, 01:30:04 PM »

But I really don't agree with your premise.  I think the talent in the NBA now is at an all time high.  I think its nostalgia that is putting last generation's players on a pedestal.

The NBA is one of those sports where today is always the greatest era, and in 10 years they'll say how the 2010's couldn't compare to what they have in 2030.  And with the same rules in place, I'll take a team from the 1960's (Robertson, West, Baylor, Chamberlain, Alcindor, Russell, Pettit, Frazier etc.) against today's defensively challenged NBA players.

(The NFL does this too, if only to avoid the comparison that maybe the 1970's were better after all.)

Baseball is the only American pro sport where you can compare across the generations. Mookie Betts or Trea Turner aren't the best of all time by a long shot because the stats don't support it. Aaron or Mays in their prime would still be that good today.

« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 01:35:15 PM by DFW HOYA »

Shooter McGavin

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #28 on: September 10, 2020, 01:32:39 PM »
Look, there is no better endorsement of what Marquette is trying to do than to have Markus Howard sticking with an NBA team. He is one of the greats of our program and he continues to distinguish himself.

That said, I have my doubts. I trust I am wrong, but Mr. Howard's size will be a detriment. People have overcome it but it's a major obstacle. There aren't many Mugsy Bouges in the league anymore.

Everything you said is correct.  I think most of the people on scoop wish Markus the best and hope he plays in the NBA but are realistic that it likely won’t happen. 

There is really no good reason however to bring his name up in a negative fashion because he represented MU on and off the court so well.  Bringing up Herro or any of the thousands of non MU players to purposefully put his career in a negative light is petty.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.

Galway Eagle

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #29 on: September 10, 2020, 01:35:55 PM »
The NBA is one of those sports where today is always the greatest era, and in 10 years they'll say how the 2010's couldn't compare to what they have in 2030. The NFL does this too, if only to avoid the comparison that maybe the 1970's were better after all.

Baseball is the only American pro sport where you can compare across the generations. Mookie Betts or Trea Turner aren't the best of all time by a long shot.

Except that era where everyone was juicing can't exactly compare to them

Uncle Rico

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #30 on: September 10, 2020, 01:54:59 PM »
The NBA is one of those sports where today is always the greatest era, and in 10 years they'll say how the 2010's couldn't compare to what they have in 2030.  And with the same rules in place, I'll take a team from the 1960's (Robertson, West, Baylor, Chamberlain, Alcindor, Russell, Pettit, Frazier etc.) against today's defensively challenged NBA players.

(The NFL does this too, if only to avoid the comparison that maybe the 1970's were better after all.)

Baseball is the only American pro sport where you can compare across the generations. Mookie Betts or Trea Turner aren't the best of all time by a long shot because the stats don't support it. Aaron or Mays in their prime would still be that good today.

I agree with this analysis.  The level of play in today’s NBA is well ahead of what would have been my formative years of Bird, Magic, Isaiah, ‘Nique, Clyde and so on.  That’s not a shot at those guys but as the sport evolves, the players get bigger stronger, faster and more skilled physically.  Those guys would have killed playing today had they been given all the advantages today’s guys have with strength programs and the such.  Nothing wrong with nostalgia, but all sports evolve
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #31 on: September 10, 2020, 02:00:41 PM »
My favorite "all time great" basketball stat that looks terrible in retrospect is that Magic Johnson made a grand total of 59 three point shots his first nine years in the league.  And shot them at a rate of about 20%.

Then his last three full years, he hit 245 total at about 35%.
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4everDawson

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #32 on: September 10, 2020, 05:12:48 PM »
Postseason 3s

2013-14: 44.6 3s per game | 27.9% of total shots
2014-15: 51.1 | 30.2%
2015-16: 51.5 | 31.0%
2016-17: 58.2 | 34.8%
2017-18: 59.8 | 35.5%
2018-19: 65.9 | 37.9%
2019-20: 74.8 | 43.4%

The 3-point revolution isn't slowing down or even plateauing. It's ramping up and reforming conventional wisdom at breakneck speed. Is this even the same sport?

If I read an entire Heisenberg v2.0 started thread, am I even the same person?
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

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No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

BM1090

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #33 on: September 10, 2020, 06:37:39 PM »
Kind of hard to in the G league or overseas.

I'd bet you Howard gets at least one NBA minute next year if I wasn't 100% certain you wouldn't pay up.

GooooMarquette

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #34 on: September 11, 2020, 01:47:53 PM »
If I read an entire Heisenberg v2.0 started thread, am I even the same person?


We don't know. Nobody has ever tried.

#UnleashDiener

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #35 on: September 11, 2020, 01:52:02 PM »
I'd bet you Howard gets at least one NBA minute next year if I wasn't 100% certain you wouldn't pay up.

That would be an interesting bet, can I bet my 200 dollars owed by chicos?

MU82

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2020, 05:46:43 PM »
The Dolphins won the 1973 Super Bowl with Bob Griese throwing 11 passes. The Sports Illustrated article about the game talked in wonder about how Griese threw an important pass to his tight end -- on first down! -- like that was the craziest thing he possibly could have done.

The Dolphins repeated as champions the following year ... with Griese throwing 7 passes in the Super Bowl. Seven! And he was a Hall of Famer who called his own plays!!!

Successful NFL teams of that era ran and ran and ran and ran. They ran to set up the pass, and also to set up more runs.

It was the same in college and high school, and continued to be the same for a couple decades, at least.

But it's not that way now at any level.

Sports evolve. Could give many examples, including the above, and 3-point shooting in hoops.
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muwarrior69

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #37 on: September 14, 2020, 09:16:15 AM »
The Dolphins won the 1973 Super Bowl with Bob Griese throwing 11 passes. The Sports Illustrated article about the game talked in wonder about how Griese threw an important pass to his tight end -- on first down! -- like that was the craziest thing he possibly could have done.

The Dolphins repeated as champions the following year ... with Griese throwing 7 passes in the Super Bowl. Seven! And he was a Hall of Famer who called his own plays!!!

Successful NFL teams of that era ran and ran and ran and ran. They ran to set up the pass, and also to set up more runs.

It was the same in college and high school, and continued to be the same for a couple decades, at least.

But it's not that way now at any level.

Sports evolve. Could give many examples, including the above, and 3-point shooting in hoops.

The hash marks on the field were wider (not sure what year they were moved more to center) as well as you could run a power play to the right or left which made the running game more difficult to defend.

With Horning and Taylor in the backfield that was one of Lombardis favorite plays.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 09:18:43 AM by muwarrior69 »

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2020, 09:33:38 AM »
The hash marks on the field were wider (not sure what year they were moved more to center) as well as you could run a power play to the right or left which made the running game more difficult to defend.

With Horning and Taylor in the backfield that was one of Lombardis favorite plays.

1972 is when they moved. 
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muwarrior69

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #39 on: September 14, 2020, 09:38:52 AM »
The NBA is one of those sports where today is always the greatest era, and in 10 years they'll say how the 2010's couldn't compare to what they have in 2030.  And with the same rules in place, I'll take a team from the 1960's (Robertson, West, Baylor, Chamberlain, Alcindor, Russell, Pettit, Frazier etc.) against today's defensively challenged NBA players.

(The NFL does this too, if only to avoid the comparison that maybe the 1970's were better after all.)

Baseball is the only American pro sport where you can compare across the generations. Mookie Betts or Trea Turner aren't the best of all time by a long shot because the stats don't support it. Aaron or Mays in their prime would still be that good today.

That is true if you play at Wrigley or Fenway. All the other teams play in vastly different ball parks today. Not saying Mays or Aaron would not be good today but I think their stat would be quite different. Back in their day pitchers would pitch complete games some as long as 13 or 14 innings. I saw Don Newcombe pitch both games of a double header; today a hitter faces 2 if not 3 pitchers a game. I am sure astro turf added a few points to ones batting average as well. I do take your point that baseball is easier to compare over generations than other sports however.

muwarrior69

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2020, 09:50:08 AM »

Doubtful.  I think they like the higher scoring, shoot from anywhere version of the NBA.

....and take as many steps as you like to make your shot or get to the basket.

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2020, 09:54:41 AM »
....and take as many steps as you like to make your shot or get to the basket.


That hasn't changed.  The NBA has always been a little more "forgiving."
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dgies9156

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2020, 09:58:29 AM »
That is true if you play at Wrigley or Fenway. All the other teams play in vastly different ball parks today. Not saying Mays or Aaron would not be good today but I think their stat would be quite different. Back in their day pitchers would pitch complete games some as long as 13 or 14 innings. I saw Don Newcombe pitch both games of a double header; today a hitter faces 2 if not 3 pitchers a game. I am sure astro turf added a few points to ones batting average as well. I do take your point that baseball is easier to compare over generations than other sports however.

I agree. Mr. Mays played most of his home games at wind-blown, godawful Candlestick Park at Hunters Point in San Francisco. The Giants almost went broke playing there because it was so cold and so uncomfortable, nobody wanted to watch a game there.

Had Willie Mays played in Fenway, Wrigley, or even the launching pad in Atlanta, Albert Pujols wouldn't even be in the same discussion as Mr. Mays. Plus, when he and Mr. Aaron went on the road, they played in places like Busch II, Riverfront Stadium, Three Rivers Stadium, Veterans Stadium, the Astrodome and Shea Stadium, to name a few of the "cutters" and other awful home run parks. Same for people like Mr. Aaron, Roberto Clemente, etc.

That said, I was looking at a photo of next year's MU team the other day and their very muscular bodies. Almost nobody in the 1970s or 1980s had bodies like that and the conditioning at that time was very different. It's not a fair comparison.


MU82

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2020, 10:10:01 AM »
I agree. Mr. Mays played most of his home games at wind-blown, godawful Candlestick Park at Hunters Point in San Francisco. The Giants almost went broke playing there because it was so cold and so uncomfortable, nobody wanted to watch a game there.

Had Willie Mays played in Fenway, Wrigley, or even the launching pad in Atlanta, Albert Pujols wouldn't even be in the same discussion as Mr. Mays. Plus, when he and Mr. Aaron went on the road, they played in places like Busch II, Riverfront Stadium, Three Rivers Stadium, Veterans Stadium, the Astrodome and Shea Stadium, to name a few of the "cutters" and other awful home run parks. Same for people like Mr. Aaron, Roberto Clemente, etc.

That said, I was looking at a photo of next year's MU team the other day and their very muscular bodies. Almost nobody in the 1970s or 1980s had bodies like that and the conditioning at that time was very different. It's not a fair comparison.

Heck, had Willie played in today's SF ballpark, he'd have had significantly more HRs.

My dad's favorite ballplayer ever, BTW. I get chills watching some of Willie's highlights.
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2020, 10:43:33 AM »
Last week Planet Money re-ran a 2019 podcast with Kirk Goldsberry

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/731408726

KIRK GOLDSBERRY: I got a Ph.D. in geography and was a professor of geography for six years at Michigan State and Harvard and then started applying map-making and data visualization techniques to basketball data, which is the love of my life.

VANEK SMITH: Kirk is the author of the new book "SprawlBall," which tells the story of how the 3-point shot came to take over the NBA this decade.

Here is an interesting take from Goldsberry ...

GOLDSBERRY: Those exact shots that we associate with Michael Jordan are virtually, you know, nonexistent. It's not to say mid-range shots are completely dead, but they're trending that way and trending that way fast.

He goes on to say that Jordan's style would be frowned up as coaches demand he with pentatrate and dish for the open three or stand behind the arc and wait for the pass.

Goldsberry thinks all the "chucking" makes the game boring to watch and thinks they should move the line back, a lot.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2020, 10:58:18 AM »
Well if a map professor thinks the game is boring.
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2020, 11:15:44 AM »
I agree. Mr. Mays played most of his home games at wind-blown, godawful Candlestick Park at Hunters Point in San Francisco. The Giants almost went broke playing there because it was so cold and so uncomfortable, nobody wanted to watch a game there.

Had Willie Mays played in Fenway, Wrigley, or even the launching pad in Atlanta, Albert Pujols wouldn't even be in the same discussion as Mr. Mays. Plus, when he and Mr. Aaron went on the road, they played in places like Busch II, Riverfront Stadium, Three Rivers Stadium, Veterans Stadium, the Astrodome and Shea Stadium, to name a few of the "cutters" and other awful home run parks. Same for people like Mr. Aaron, Roberto Clemente, etc.

That said, I was looking at a photo of next year's MU team the other day and their very muscular bodies. Almost nobody in the 1970s or 1980s had bodies like that and the conditioning at that time was very different. It's not a fair comparison.

Even as a Yankee fan I loved Willie Mays. I got to see him play at Ebbets field in Brooklyn and the Polo Grounds. He had a short right field porch as the upper deck had about a 10 foot over hang into the field but my God it was 475 to center. I also saw him hit his 660th home run at Shea Stadium when he played for the Mets. As a youngster I got to see all those great players of that era: DiMaggio, Mantle, Berra, Snyder, Jackie Robinson, Ted Williams, Aaron, Clemente, Banks and Musial just to name a few.

82, I agree with you, Candlestick park was just an awful place to play and Mays' stats would be far better if he had played elsewhere. I remember the 6th game of the '62 WS was postponed for almost a week because of bad weather.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2020, 11:34:02 AM »
The Dolphins won the 1973 Super Bowl with Bob Griese throwing 11 passes. The Sports Illustrated article about the game talked in wonder about how Griese threw an important pass to his tight end -- on first down! -- like that was the craziest thing he possibly could have done.

The Dolphins repeated as champions the following year ... with Griese throwing 7 passes in the Super Bowl. Seven! And he was a Hall of Famer who called his own plays!!!

Successful NFL teams of that era ran and ran and ran and ran. They ran to set up the pass, and also to set up more runs.

It was the same in college and high school, and continued to be the same for a couple decades, at least.

But it's not that way now at any level.

Sports evolve. Could give many examples, including the above, and 3-point shooting in hoops.

In 1973, Jerry Tagge, Jim Del Gaizo and Scott Hunter tied for the Packers team lead with 2 touchdown passes on the season.  Throw in an option TD from MacArthur Lane, and the team had 7 TD passes for the entire season.

Quite a putrid stretch in games 6-8.  Week 6, they amassed a net 28 yards passing.  Dropped to 3 the next week.  Can't get worse than that?  Week 8, -3 net passing yards against the Bears.  Like something out of the 30's.


The following season they added MVP John Hadl to improve the passing game.   Well, Hadl did throw 3 TD's on the season for Green Bay, but the team only had 5 total for 1974.

MU82

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2020, 11:48:20 AM »
Last week Planet Money re-ran a 2019 podcast with Kirk Goldsberry

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/731408726

KIRK GOLDSBERRY: I got a Ph.D. in geography and was a professor of geography for six years at Michigan State and Harvard and then started applying map-making and data visualization techniques to basketball data, which is the love of my life.

VANEK SMITH: Kirk is the author of the new book "SprawlBall," which tells the story of how the 3-point shot came to take over the NBA this decade.

Here is an interesting take from Goldsberry ...

GOLDSBERRY: Those exact shots that we associate with Michael Jordan are virtually, you know, nonexistent. It's not to say mid-range shots are completely dead, but they're trending that way and trending that way fast.

He goes on to say that Jordan's style would be frowned up as coaches demand he with pentatrate and dish for the open three or stand behind the arc and wait for the pass.

Goldsberry thinks all the "chucking" makes the game boring to watch and thinks they should move the line back, a lot.

If you agree with this "expert," Smuggles, why are you even posting here? If basketball is getting to the point where you find it boring and not worth following, why bother with Scoop, Marquette basketball, or tectonically-changing sports at all?

I guess you just like the company here ... so on behalf of Scoopers everywhere, I thank you for the compliment!
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2020, 11:54:47 AM »
If I also told you Goldsberry was the head of statistical analysis for the San Antonio Spurs, would you take "experts" out of quotes?  Or, is this just the standard "agree with me" or ad hominem attack without addressing the issue that is a staple of your posts?

And, for the record, I do think it is boring.  Push the three-point line back and re-introduce a more athletic style of play.



« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 11:56:47 AM by Heisenberg v2.0 »

muwarrior69

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #50 on: September 14, 2020, 12:06:18 PM »
College Basketball is not boring, the NBA is just a tad above professional wrestling.

A friend of mine will tune into a basketball or football game with 5 minutes left to play and watch only if the game is close otherwise he thinks its a waste of time. I asked him why do you watch so much golf?

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2020, 12:09:32 PM »
If I also told you Goldsberry was the head of statistical analysis for the San Antonio Spurs, would you take "experts" out of quotes?  Or, is this just the standard "agree with me" or ad hominem attack without addressing the issue that is a staple of your posts?

And, for the record, I do think it is boring.  Push the three-point line back and re-introduce a more athletic style of play.

How about making the basketball rim a half inch smaller in diameter.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #52 on: September 14, 2020, 12:13:04 PM »
How about making the basketball rim a half inch smaller in diameter.

This would be better than extending the line in my opinion as well as stiffer rims.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #53 on: September 14, 2020, 12:18:54 PM »
College Basketball is not boring, the NBA is just a tad above professional wrestling.

A friend of mine will tune into a basketball or football game with 5 minutes left to play and watch only if the game is close otherwise he thinks its a waste of time. I asked him why do you watch so much golf?


I just don't find this very accurate IMO.  Especially during the playoffs.

I get that people could get bored with the way the game is played now.  But I think people have an over-romaticized vision of the 80s and 90s.
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #54 on: September 14, 2020, 12:45:30 PM »
If I also told you Goldsberry was the head of statistical analysis for the San Antonio Spurs, would you take "experts" out of quotes?  Or, is this just the standard "agree with me" or ad hominem attack without addressing the issue that is a staple of your posts?

And, for the record, I do think it is boring.  Push the three-point line back and re-introduce a more athletic style of play.

Lots of "experts" out there, including all of us on Scoop. Anybody could find any "expert" to help "prove" whatever he or she wants to. Several of us, including me, do it all the time here.

I like basketball.
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MU82

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #55 on: September 14, 2020, 12:46:12 PM »
College Basketball is not boring, the NBA is just a tad above professional wrestling.

When is the last time you watched an NBA playoff game?
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #56 on: September 14, 2020, 01:11:58 PM »
When is the last time you watched an NBA playoff game?

obviously he did not watch game 6 of the Raptors/Celtics series or the last two games of the Clippers/Nuggets series.
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #57 on: September 14, 2020, 03:05:22 PM »

I just don't find this very accurate IMO.  Especially during the playoffs.

I get that people could get bored with the way the game is played now.  But I think people have an over-romaticized vision of the 80s and 90s.

People said things like that back in the 90's too (that the first 3 quarters don't matter and the players only play hard in the 4th quarter).

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #58 on: September 14, 2020, 03:12:58 PM »

That hasn't changed.  The NBA has always been a little more "forgiving."



Always more forgiving than college, sure.

But still, they did call fairly consistently traveling on players not named Erving, Gervin, Havlicek, Robertson and the like.

muwarrior69

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #59 on: September 14, 2020, 03:20:01 PM »
When is the last time you watched an NBA playoff game?

My team in the NBA is the New York Knicks, I guess that should answer your question. I know just a little hyperbolic commentary on the NBA.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 03:25:59 PM by muwarrior69 »

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #60 on: September 14, 2020, 04:00:04 PM »
If I also told you Goldsberry was the head of statistical analysis for the San Antonio Spurs, would you take "experts" out of quotes?  Or, is this just the standard "agree with me" or ad hominem attack without addressing the issue that is a staple of your posts?

It depends on what this thread is about.

If this thread is about statistical analysis in basketball or any similar topic, then Goldsbury is absolutely an expert sans the quotation marks.

My understanding of this thread is that you are arguing that the current style of basketball is boring and the NBA should consider rule changes to force teams to play a style of ball that you find more exciting. If that's the case, then Goldsbury is not an expert, he's not even an "expert." He's a single data point in the question of "is the current style of basketball boring?" His opinion on this topic is as relevant as mine, yours, or that of any other fan/potential fan of the NBA.
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #61 on: September 14, 2020, 04:38:42 PM »
I think moving the line back is a terrible idea. Guys will master that shot and so will the amount of space the defense has to cover.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #62 on: September 14, 2020, 05:04:46 PM »
I think moving the line back is a terrible idea. Guys will master that shot and so will the amount of space the defense has to cover.


Yep. If they decided to give five points for a shot from the opposite free-throw lane, there would be guys hitting 33% of them within a couple of years.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #63 on: September 14, 2020, 10:36:21 PM »
In 1973, Jerry Tagge, Jim Del Gaizo and Scott Hunter tied for the Packers team lead with 2 touchdown passes on the season.  Throw in an option TD from MacArthur Lane, and the team had 7 TD passes for the entire season.

Quite a putrid stretch in games 6-8.  Week 6, they amassed a net 28 yards passing.  Dropped to 3 the next week.  Can't get worse than that?  Week 8, -3 net passing yards against the Bears.  Like something out of the 30's.


The following season they added MVP John Hadl to improve the passing game.   Well, Hadl did throw 3 TD's on the season for Green Bay, but the team only had 5 total for 1974.

In those days, the Packers had an outstanding fullback named John Brockington, who carried the load for the Packers. Lane blocked and Jerry "I'm from Green Bay" Tagge handed off. If Tagge passed, he probably was benched for a week.

The only quarterback every to play the game that was more immobile than John Hadl was Lynn Dickey. The Packers traded away a decade to get Hadl, in what probably was the worst player personnel decision in franchise history. And that includes Tony Mandarich and passing on Ronnie Lott and Joe Montana.

That said, the game evolved. Bill Walsh, Sid Gilliam and even Bill Parcells were geniuses.

Every game evolves. Even baseball, no matter how much the owners and the elders game try to make no change and make it retroactive.

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #64 on: September 14, 2020, 11:11:48 PM »
In those days, the Packers had an outstanding fullback named John Brockington, who carried the load for the Packers. Lane blocked and Jerry "I'm from Green Bay" Tagge handed off. If Tagge passed, he probably was benched for a week.

The only quarterback every to play the game that was more immobile than John Hadl was Lynn Dickey. The Packers traded away a decade to get Hadl, in what probably was the worst player personnel decision in franchise history. And that includes Tony Mandarich and passing on Ronnie Lott and Joe Montana.

That said, the game evolved. Bill Walsh, Sid Gilliam and even Bill Parcells were geniuses.

Every game evolves. Even baseball, no matter how much the owners and the elders game try to make no change and make it retroactive.


Interesting story about the John Hadl trade, including the fact that they actually wanted (and almost got) Archie Manning first:

https://thepowersweep.com/blog/the-john-hadl-disaster

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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #65 on: October 13, 2020, 10:19:15 AM »

Iverson wasn't a contemporary of Bird and Magic.

But I really don't agree with your premise.  I think the talent in the NBA now is at an all time high.  I think its nostalgia that is putting last generation's players on a pedestal.
I agree with you that talent is at an all-time high. 

I also think Lakers-Celtics basketball in the 80s was the pinnacle of the NBA as an aesthetically pleasing sport to watch.  Lots of running and ball movement.  Then came the Pistons thugball and then Jordan too good and broke the league while winning and dominating the ball and then non-Jordan quality players trying to play like Jordan was not fun to watch for me. Too much pick and roll and especially three point shooting for my tastes now.  My favorite thing to see on a basketball court is the hockey pass that ultimately leads to a layup or dunk.

But that's just it, those are my tastes.  I don't understand, but I am sure many people prefer today's game.
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Re: The Future of Basketball
« Reply #66 on: October 13, 2020, 01:29:21 PM »
I agree with you that talent is at an all-time high. 

I also think Lakers-Celtics basketball in the 80s was the pinnacle of the NBA as an aesthetically pleasing sport to watch.  Lots of running and ball movement.  Then came the Pistons thugball and then Jordan too good and broke the league while winning and dominating the ball and then non-Jordan quality players trying to play like Jordan was not fun to watch for me. Too much pick and roll and especially three point shooting for my tastes now.  My favorite thing to see on a basketball court is the hockey pass that ultimately leads to a layup or dunk.

But that's just it, those are my tastes.  I don't understand, but I am sure many people prefer today's game.
I think a lot of people who were around in the 70s and 80s would agree with your opinion.

 

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