Wojo to Duke odds

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I subscribe to the Bill Parcells school of thought:

       "You are what Your record says you are "

I agree. Wojo's record is clearly better than Deane's.

[MU82]

I disagreed and pointed out reasons you're wrong about their last 4 being identical. It was not at all about arguing bring back Deane, I long for the Mike Deane days, etc. I pointed out where you were right about him. But you're argument of identical last 4 was debunked, so change what the argument is.

I do not think they are identical. I think Wojo's record is quite a bit better, and I think most P6 ADs/university presidents would agree because they would be MUCH more likely to hire a guy who had Wojo's record than Deane's record.

Obviously, that's an opinion, and like all opinions (including yours), it can't be "proven." But I think it's pretty likely that the one who left on his own with two straight NCAA tourney appearances (and 3 in 4 years) and had just landed a top-20 recruiting class (which would be Wojo if he left today) would be FAR more attractive to other schools than one who was fired after missing the tourney two straight years, including a 14-15 swan song (which was Deane's end at Marquette).

If Wojo had put himself on the market in March, I'm confident he'd have a P6 job. The best Deane could do was Lamar, where he had one winning season in 4 years.

You're totally right that I shouldn't have used hyperbole as I did, Hutch, and I apologize for it.

It was totally unnecessary to make my point.

[Dawson Rental]

I don't think Buzz left because he couldn't recruit certain players anymore.

I do think he left because he didn't like to be told how to run his program. I don't think it matters what direction/restriction was given, it probably would have led to the same result.

The narrative that Wojo can't be as successful as Buzz because he can't recruit the same players is lazy and frankly untrue. There were maybe 3 or 4 guys that Buzz recruited that Wojo couldn't and 1 of the guys I'm thinking of was hardly a worldbeater. There are quite literally 100s of players that Wojo can recruit with no issue every year. He hasn't been as successful as Buzz because he's not as good of a coach as Buzz, at least not yet. That's the simple truth of it.

But Crowder was a world beater. Could Wojo get a player like him in?  Crean's best recruit was Wade, so that's the best players recruited by each coach (apologies to JB) (one a program changer) that I'm thinking Wojo would not be allowed to take.

Wojo has been superior in the overall quality of his high school recruits which I think is how both he and the University like to roll.  This most recent class shows that he's moving on from reliance on sub 5'11" marksmen to carry his offense.  That's why I agree that the incoming class will largely determine Wojo's fate.

[MU82]

I subscribe to the Bill Parcells school of thought:

       "You are what Your record says you are "

Totally agree. That's why, after the 1982-83 season, Bob Dukiet had proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was a better coach than Mike Krzyzewski. BD was 81-32 at St. Peter's; K was 47-64 at Army and Duke. Case closed.

Stoopid Dook shoulda fired K and hired Dukiet ... but then we might have gotten stuck with that loser Krzyzewski.

And with Wojo and Deane, it definitely doesn't matter at all that the Big East now is considerably better than Conference USA was when Deane coached at MU. That shouldn't play into it at all. Or that Deane was handed a team that had just gone to the Sweet 16 while Wojo was handed a team that didn't make the postseason at all and had lost 5 of its top 6 scorers.

Yep, you always are what your record says you are: Dukiet was better than K. And, for that matter, Wojo is miles better than Shaka, the guy absolutely everybody (including me) wanted MU to hire, since Shaka landed at Texas. At 102-62 for Wojo vs. 90-78 for Shaka, it's not even close.

[Dawson Rental]

Good post MU82.  My concern is 14-15 might be our record next year. Where do we go from there? Especially since MU will most likely need to decide on Wojo's status.

What was the Three Amigo's record their first year?

[Dawson Rental]

Deane won with O'Neill's talent, including the NCAA game.  When that talent went away he was exposed.  Deane could not recruit.

A Succinct and to the point Deane eval. Cordell Henry and Mike Bargain were all I can remember from 5 years of his recruiting.

[MU82]

I have no doubt that you're right - the national perception, created by the national press, is very positive toward Wojo. Not particularly accurate (the average Scooper knows a lot more about MU b-ball than the national press), but very positive. Are the media that fawn over him aware of how his record stacks up against his predecessors? They're either dishonest or uninformed. Likely the latter.

First, thanks for agreeing with me on the national perception. You can call it "fawning" or anything else, all I said was that the perception was there. It was everybody else who kept changing the subject, because all they can think of every time they hear Wojo's name is "sucks."

Now, as far as stacking up against his predecessors ...

Lenny, do you honestly believe the AD at, say, Oklahoma State or USC or Wake Forest, would choose the guy who just missed the tournament for 2 straight years (including a 14-15 finish) and had proven he couldn't recruit, or the guy who made the tourney 2 straight years (and 3 of 4) and just signed a top-20 class?

I know you're knowledgeable, so I don't even have to wait for your answer.

Now, can we all go back to discussing important topics that haven't been beaten to death on Scoop, like whether Derrick was better than Magic Dawson, or whether or not Wojo could have kept Deonte? Those are always fun.

[muguru]

First, thanks for agreeing with me on the national perception. You can call it "fawning" or anything else, all I said was that the perception was there. It was everybody else who kept changing the subject, because all they can think of every time they hear Wojo's name is "sucks."

Now, as far as stacking up against his predecessors ...

Lenny, do you honestly believe the AD at, say, Oklahoma State or USC or Wake Forest, would choose the guy who just missed the tournament for 2 straight years (including a 14-15 finish) and had proven he couldn't recruit, or the guy who made the tourney 2 straight years (and 3 of 4) and just signed a top-20 class?

I know you're knowledgeable, so I don't even have to wait for your answer.

Now, can we all go back to discussing important topics that haven't been beaten to death on Scoop, like whether Derrick was better than Magic Dawson, or whether or not Wojo could have kept Deonte? Those are always fun.

This is my last post on this topic, because quite frankly it's annoying and beaten to death...but I bolded the part I feel is important, and what I think the vast majority of scoopers miss...MU SHOULD be better and at a higher level then the schools you highlighted MU82. People will disagree with me(when don't they when it comes to expectations for the program?) and that's okay, but it's my belief that nationally MU should regularly be considered a better program then those..and I think that's the biggest problem...right now it's hard to argue they are. I don't think the general public or even people that follow CBB regularly really dig too deep into #'s when comparing programs like this(outside the blue bloods), they hear "Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, USC, Marquette, yup, all relatively the same basketball pedigree, not blue bloods, but nice programs in major conferences". THAT'S the perception that needs to change IMO

[Lennys Tap]

First, thanks for agreeing with me on the national perception. You can call it "fawning" or anything else, all I said was that the perception was there. It was everybody else who kept changing the subject, because all they can think of every time they hear Wojo's name is "sucks."

Now, as far as stacking up against his predecessors ...

Lenny, do you honestly believe the AD at, say, Oklahoma State or USC or Wake Forest, would choose the guy who just missed the tournament for 2 straight years (including a 14-15 finish) and had proven he couldn't recruit, or the guy who made the tourney 2 straight years (and 3 of 4) and just signed a top-20 class?

I know you're knowledgeable, so I don't even have to wait for your answer.

Mike

You're right, of course. My standings of our last 5 coaches would be as follows:

1 Buzz
2 Crean
3 KO
4 Wojo
5 Deane

KO get penalized for only staying 4 years, but one could still mKe a good argument that he's #2.

[brewcity77]

What was the Three Amigo's record their first year?

While I'm sure these comparisons will come, the Amigos also had Novak. I'm not sure there's a Novak on next year's team.

[MU82]

Mike

You're right, of course. My standings of our last 5 coaches would be as follows:

1 Buzz
2 Crean
3 KO
4 Wojo
5 Deane

KO get penalized for only staying 4 years, but one could still mKe a good argument that he's #2.

Yep, I wish KO hadn't used Marquette as a stepping stone whose plan was to get out as soon as he felt the grass was greener -- starting a trend that continues to this day -- but he did a heck of a job in a very difficult situation for us. I got a lot of enjoyment out of watching KO's Sweet 16 team all season, and that win over Kentucky is a top-10 MU victory for me. Maybe top 5 if I actually went and counted 'em.

[WhiteTrash]

Mike

You're right, of course. My standings of our last 5 coaches would be as follows:

1 Buzz
2 Crean
3 KO
4 Wojo
5 Deane

KO get penalized for only staying 4 years, but one could still mKe a good argument that he's #2.

I agree with this.

[Uncle Rico]

Crean laid the foundation for the success of the 21st Century.  KO did a great job here but Crean built the program to have sustained success.  Between facilities and helping navigate the move to the Big East, Marquette people need to swallow their pride and give him his due. 

[muguru]

Crean laid the foundation for the success of the 21st Century.  KO did a great job here but Crean built the program to have sustained success.  Between facilities and helping navigate the move to the Big East, Marquette people need to swallow their pride and give him his due.

You and I don't agree often Rico..but this is 100% spot on. He doesn't get near the credit he deserves from MU fans. Not even close.

[Lennys Tap]

While I'm sure these comparisons will come, the Amigos also had Novak. I'm not sure there's a Novak on next year's team.

No Novak and the Amigos were considerably higher rated. This year's class and their rsci:

Garcia 35
Osa.    99
Lewis. 87

Compared to the Amigos:

James  36
McNeal 57
Wesley 61

[Nukem2]

No Novak and the Amigos were considerably higher rated. This year's class and their rsci:

Garcia 35
Osa.    99
Lewis. Not in top 100, I think he's around 115

Compared to the Amigos:

James  36
McNeal 57
Wesley 61

Lewis is 87 in the RSCI

[Lennys Tap]

Lewis is 87 in the RSCI

My mistake. Thanks, I'll edit.

[Small Orange Soda]

Mike

You're right, of course. My standings of our last 5 coaches would be as follows:

1 Buzz
2 Crean
3 KO
4 Wojo
5 Deane

KO get penalized for only staying 4 years, but one could still mKe a good argument that he's #2.

Yup.  Some of us are upset about that, others think that Wojo will improve.  Unfortunately, we've heard that refrain for several years running.

[MU82]

This is my last post on this topic, because quite frankly it's annoying and beaten to death...but I bolded the part I feel is important, and what I think the vast majority of scoopers miss...MU SHOULD be better and at a higher level then the schools you highlighted MU82. People will disagree with me(when don't they when it comes to expectations for the program?) and that's okay, but it's my belief that nationally MU should regularly be considered a better program then those..and I think that's the biggest problem...right now it's hard to argue they are. I don't think the general public or even people that follow CBB regularly really dig too deep into #'s when comparing programs like this(outside the blue bloods), they hear "Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, USC, Marquette, yup, all relatively the same basketball pedigree, not blue bloods, but nice programs in major conferences". THAT'S the perception that needs to change IMO

OK.

I suggest you begin a letter-writing campaign to change it.

[5DollarPitcher]

I'd be willing to bet the author of this article couldn't name 2 players on Marquette's roster outside of Markus Howard.  Let's stop patting ourselves on the back for three complimentary sentences from a clueless SI writer desparate for content amid a pandemic.  Wojo is still not good enough.

[wadesworld]

I'd be willing to bet the author of this article couldn't name 2 players on Marquette's roster outside of Markus Howard.  Let's stop patting ourselves on the back for three complimentary sentences from a clueless SI writer desparate for content amid a pandemic.  Wojo is still not good enough.

I'd bet he or she could.

[5DollarPitcher]

I'd bet he or she could.

Well we'll never know. 

One thing we know for sure - they have a funny definition of "consistently winning" in the Big East.  Aside from two outlier seasons on each end of the spectrum, each season has been solidly .500ish in the Big East.  If that's consistently winning then, by definition, we'd also be consistently losing at the same rate...

[WarriorDad]

Yep, I wish KO hadn't used Marquette as a stepping stone whose plan was to get out as soon as he felt the grass was greener -- starting a trend that continues to this day -- but he did a heck of a job in a very difficult situation for us. I got a lot of enjoyment out of watching KO's Sweet 16 team all season, and that win over Kentucky is a top-10 MU victory for me. Maybe top 5 if I actually went and counted 'em.

O'Neill is a riddle to me.  He did some good things at Marquette at a time when the program had bottomed out.  For that alone he should be revered.

He also did what he did when our conferences were not very good, at least the MCC wasn't and the Great Midwest was pretty good.  I try to imagine how he would have done in CUSA, the old Big East or the new Big East.   In looking at his other stops in major conferences, he didn't do well.  Losing record at Tennessee (never had one winning season).  Under .350 record at Northwestern.  Losing record at USC.  His only winning record was at Arizona and his 19-15 record (later all vacated) there was one of the worst at Arizona in the last 30 years.


Was he a product of timing?  He landed MacIlvaine, Key and Logterman at a time when Wisconsin Badger basketball was bad.  Played in mid major conference.  Had one run in a NCAA tournament.   I'm not sure the evidence supports as we moved up in competition with better leagues that he would have done well because he didn't at any other stop where basketball success has been seen (except for Northwestern).

[bilsu]

Totally agree. That's why, after the 1982-83 season, Bob Dukiet had proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was a better coach than Mike Krzyzewski. BD was 81-32 at St. Peter's; K was 47-64 at Army and Duke. Case closed.

Stoopid Dook shoulda fired K and hired Dukiet ... but then we might have gotten stuck with that loser Krzyzewski.

And with Wojo and Deane, it definitely doesn't matter at all that the Big East now is considerably better than Conference USA was when Deane coached at MU. That shouldn't play into it at all. Or that Deane was handed a team that had just gone to the Sweet 16 while Wojo was handed a team that didn't make the postseason at all and had lost 5 of its top 6 scorers.

Yep, you always are what your record says you are: Dukiet was better than K. And, for that matter, Wojo is miles better than Shaka, the guy absolutely everybody (including me) wanted MU to hire, since Shaka landed at Texas. At 102-62 for Wojo vs. 90-78 for Shaka, it's not even close.

I would imagine had Wojo's teams been playing the competition St.Peter's played that his W-L record would be really good. You cannot compare W-L records without adjusting for competition levels. Of all of MU's coaches, I think Buzz had the toughest overall schedule and Wojo would have the second toughest. Crean had 3 years in Big East and 6 years against a lower level of competition.

[dgies9156]

Let's go back to the basic question -- Wojo to Duke odds.

They don't make numbers that high!

The reason is this: If Coach K retired, Duke could choose anyone in the country not named Roy Williams. This is where we were in 1977, on steroids. The program is good. The basketball team puts Duke on the map and there are too many examples of schools that fell off the radar because a national sports program (football or basketball) fell off the radar.

Duke's administration knows what we know at MU -- if the basketball program declines, so does giving. So does national exposure and so does the university's stature. In our case, think of what the McGuire Money helped MU do. Now multiply that times 1 million!

Duke would begin a national search and either would hire a well-established coach with an incredible track record, or the best assistant coach money could buy. I said back when Coach Wojo was hired and there was enormous hand wringing over the possibility we would be a stepping stone to Duke that the only way we would be a stepping stone to Duke would be if Coach Wojo put another banner next to the one that says "1977" on it.

I stand by that belief today. If Coach wins a national title for us, he'll be on the Duke short list. If he doesn't he's one of many.