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Author Topic: COVID Economy  (Read 223195 times)

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1825 on: October 12, 2021, 02:42:05 PM »
Yeah, my current prediction is that this current "transitory" inflation, is going to cause a lot more medium term pain than is being predicted.  Those that have been running tight budgets, are going to find them suddenly busted, and debt/defaults are going to go way up.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1826 on: October 12, 2021, 02:44:50 PM »
Re: Childcare .. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/upshot/child-care-biden.html

Astonishing child-care spending in the EU.

--

.. In honesty, has anyone seen an explanation why the unemployment rate isn't ~2% right now?   

I thought part of receiving unemployment was some form of "have you looked for work this week?" .. I'd think they'd need to ask the question "how did you not get 5 job offers this week?"


People are still receiving advances on the child tax credits. 
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

JWags85

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1827 on: October 12, 2021, 04:21:16 PM »
Agree on all that, and I do not know how it will all end.   At the moment, I'd have to guess that there will be a great rotation and those lower-level non-career jobs like hotels, restaurants .. will continue to be unfilled and more and more owners will throw in the towel.

There's a high quality restaurant a block from me that is currently closed due to staffing.  They've been opening and closing over the past 6 months.   If staffing doesn't resolve in XX months, they'll just have to close it up. -- which is my current bet.

The claim of "well, they should pay more" only works for a while.  When the pizza has to be $40 to pay for the cook and waitress, your customers will stay home.

Your local Subway owner makes $50k.  If they have to add $25k more in salary to pay for labor, you might as well close.

Yep, My BIL is in the restaurant industry in NYC area.  He has friends who owned 4-5 good, high quality and successful restaurants.  The 3 owner operators usually took home around $200-300K each a year.  Nice business that had been around for over a decade.  Staffing was brutal, had to add substantial costs there.  Suddenly a restaurant clearing $150K in profit a year has to add another $50K in additional staffing costs.  Still doable but a bit tighter.  Now add reduced traffic and suddenly a thriving business is in a really tough spot.  You don't stay in business that long in a cutthroat industry by suddenly jacking up all your menu prices.  Because the dirty little secret is most of those people who claim "I'd gladly pay more if staff was paid better!"....don't and end up going elsewhere.

Not just confined to the restaurant business, but people outside of business tend to overestimate how much cash companies keep on hand or how big margins really are and further more, how much sudden increases in costs can wreck a thriving business, and thats without myriad uncertainties, supply chain woes, etc...

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1828 on: October 12, 2021, 04:32:56 PM »
I've posted before that I believe we are seeing the results of too many restaurants on top of the public not dining out as frequently as pre-COVID. There might be a major reduction in the number of restaurants just beginning. From all accounts there never was much margin and now the effects are showing.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1829 on: October 12, 2021, 05:39:02 PM »

People are still receiving advances on the child tax credits.

And millions of people are going to be f-ed come April, not realizing that they are just getting their money that they would get after filing is now getting paid out in advance.

jesmu84

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1830 on: October 12, 2021, 06:34:15 PM »
And millions of people are going to be f-ed come April, not realizing that they are just getting their money that they would get after filing is now getting paid out in advance.

Why would they be "f-ed"? I thought it was on individuals to be responsible for themselves?

JWags85

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1831 on: October 12, 2021, 07:17:38 PM »
Why would they be "f-ed"? I thought it was on individuals to be responsible for themselves?

You can be F-ed as a result of your own actions/mistakes.  I would assume thats what he means, not that they are being screwed.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1832 on: October 12, 2021, 07:32:00 PM »
Funny (not) .. so I got our first child tax credit check and read that I could request the IRS stop sending monthly checks. 

So I followed the directions .. got to the site .. and needed to "verify" my identity by going to ID.me and uploading my drivers' license and a piece of mail, plus a webcam picture of myself right that instant.  I jumped through the hoops, but after 2-3 attempts, it said "Sorry, we can't verify you.  But you can set up a video call and someone will help."  So I did.  The video call lady asked me to hold up my docs to the webcam, and a few minutes later I was verified.   This whole adventure took about an hour.

I could then terminate the child tax credits on the IRS website.  So I did, only to be told "half of your credit will now be stopped.  If you'd like the other half cancelled, have your spouse jump through the same hoops."

Eff that, I wasn't going to make her do another hours worth of nonsense.   So now she gets half a credit each month by check.     >:(

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1833 on: October 12, 2021, 07:52:09 PM »
Why would they be "f-ed"? I thought it was on individuals to be responsible for themselves?

You really think the idiots that are getting their Biden bucks each month understand the tax implications?  That the govt is just prepaying their tax credits?

There will be sob story news reports about the family that didn't get their "tax refund" because they already spent that money on stupid sh!t.  Families eating cat food.    It will be heart wrenching.

This is another arguement for a flat tax.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1834 on: October 12, 2021, 08:14:48 PM »
You really think the idiots that are getting their Biden bucks each month understand the tax implications?  That the govt is just prepaying their tax credits?

There will be sob story news reports about the family that didn't get their "tax refund" because they already spent that money on stupid sh!t.  Families eating cat food.    It will be heart wrenching.

This is another arguement for a flat tax.

I think most people understand that yes. (I’m sure you can find anecdotal evidence that will make you believe your point is valid though.)

And my understanding is that the benefits were enhanced and only half is being prepaid with the rest coming in April as usual. So people will still get a chunk in April.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1835 on: October 12, 2021, 08:17:01 PM »
Funny (not) .. so I got our first child tax credit check and read that I could request the IRS stop sending monthly checks. 

So I followed the directions .. got to the site .. and needed to "verify" my identity by going to ID.me and uploading my drivers' license and a piece of mail, plus a webcam picture of myself right that instant.  I jumped through the hoops, but after 2-3 attempts, it said "Sorry, we can't verify you.  But you can set up a video call and someone will help."  So I did.  The video call lady asked me to hold up my docs to the webcam, and a few minutes later I was verified.   This whole adventure took about an hour.

I could then terminate the child tax credits on the IRS website.  So I did, only to be told "half of your credit will now be stopped.  If you'd like the other half cancelled, have your spouse jump through the same hoops."

Eff that, I wasn't going to make her do another hours worth of nonsense.   So now she gets half a credit each month by check.     >:(

Why would you want to have them stop sending you checks?  It seems that it would be easier, if you are worried about a penalty-inducing tax bill in April, to simply pocket the money and send it back as an estimated tax payment.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

MU82

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1836 on: October 12, 2021, 09:54:34 PM »
Yep, My BIL is in the restaurant industry in NYC area.  He has friends who owned 4-5 good, high quality and successful restaurants.  The 3 owner operators usually took home around $200-300K each a year.  Nice business that had been around for over a decade.  Staffing was brutal, had to add substantial costs there.  Suddenly a restaurant clearing $150K in profit a year has to add another $50K in additional staffing costs.  Still doable but a bit tighter.  Now add reduced traffic and suddenly a thriving business is in a really tough spot.  You don't stay in business that long in a cutthroat industry by suddenly jacking up all your menu prices.  Because the dirty little secret is most of those people who claim "I'd gladly pay more if staff was paid better!"....don't and end up going elsewhere.

Not just confined to the restaurant business, but people outside of business tend to overestimate how much cash companies keep on hand or how big margins really are and further more, how much sudden increases in costs can wreck a thriving business, and thats without myriad uncertainties, supply chain woes, etc...

Nice little family-owned restaurant in the town where I live got some pub during the worst of the pandemic for making lunches for poor kids who weren’t in school and therefore weren’t getting school lunches.

A couple months ago, they announced that they were gonna raise the prices of every entree and sandwich on the menu by $1, with every penny going to their servers and support staff.

My wife and I have gone twice since the price hikes went into effect. We are happy to support such great members of our community. Both times we went, there were very nice turnouts; both were weeknights.

I agree that there will be people who will say, “Screw that, I ain’t paying more.” But I think a LOT of people know what’s what and would appreciate a restaurant handling things the way the restaurant I mentioned did.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1837 on: October 12, 2021, 11:00:20 PM »
You really think the idiots that are getting their Biden bucks each month understand the tax implications?  That the govt is just prepaying their tax credits?

There will be sob story news reports about the family that didn't get their "tax refund" because they already spent that money on stupid sh!t.  Families eating cat food.    It will be heart wrenching.

This is another arguement for a flat tax.

Oh wow, I had no idea you were this stupid.

That's so embarrassing.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1838 on: October 13, 2021, 05:54:07 AM »
Oh wow, I had no idea you were this stupid.

That's so embarrassing.

That's substantive.

I would have put you down as a "millionaires and billionaires don't pay their fair share" due to "loopholes" kinda guy.  Guess you like all those tax deductions. Personal interest over the public good? Goose and gander, hey?

real chili 83

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1839 on: October 13, 2021, 06:08:33 AM »
Zig, be quiet now.  Didn’t you hear, Hards says you are stupid and embarrassing. He’s so salient and profound.

Remember, he only has to be tolerant of just those that think exactly like him. No one else.


ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1840 on: October 13, 2021, 06:13:31 AM »
Zig, be quiet now.  Didn’t you hear, Hards says you are stupid and embarrassing. He’s so salient and profound.

Remember, he only has to be tolerant of just those that think exactly like him. No one else.

Coexist.

real chili 83

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1841 on: October 13, 2021, 06:29:15 AM »
Zig, wow, a flat tax?  In my opinion, that is very flawed policy.  If you don't mind, let me share with you some of my reasoning.....

Thanks for sharing your idea.  I appreciate the exchange.  Have a great day!

Pakuni

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1842 on: October 13, 2021, 07:13:51 AM »
That's substantive.

I would have put you down as a "millionaires and billionaires don't pay their fair share" due to "loopholes" kinda guy.  Guess you like all those tax deductions. Personal interest over the public good? Goose and gander, hey?

Ken Griffin spent about $50 million to keep Illinois' income tax flat.
Kinda tells you all you need to know about which system benefits billionaires most, no?

tower912

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1843 on: October 13, 2021, 07:26:43 AM »
If we are going to go down this rabbit hole...

I like the concept of a flat tax.   Personal exemption to $30k, couples to $50k, $5k per kid.   Everything above that taxed to 20% (Negotiable)    The problem for me is that I don't see how you get at all of the money being stashed offshore or in other tax dodges.   
Taxes on a postcard?  Great concept.   Actual execution?   Uhhhhhhh.......
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1844 on: October 13, 2021, 07:58:05 AM »
Zig, wow, a flat tax?  In my opinion, that is very flawed policy.  If you don't mind, let me share with you some of my reasoning.....

Thanks for sharing your idea.  I appreciate the exchange.  Have a great day!


Oh wow, I had no idea you were this stupid.

That's so embarrassing.

MU82

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1845 on: October 13, 2021, 08:08:53 AM »
NC's largest school district bumps up bus-driver pay to lure back those who left during the pandemic and/or attract new drivers.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/education/article254947497.html#storylink=cpy

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools are still short dozens of bus drivers nearly two months into the school year, despite aggressive recruitment efforts, including hosting multiple job fairs and offering bonuses.

Now, the school district will bump up the hourly wage for drivers in hopes they can attract more staff. On Tuesday, the Board of Education unanimously approved increasing the starting wage from $15.75 an hour to $17.75.

The district also announced full-time "guest teacher" positions because it's been having trouble getting substitute teachers. They will receive $150 per day for every school is in session during the academic year.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

tower912

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1846 on: October 13, 2021, 08:11:03 AM »
The answer to your retirement boredom.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1847 on: October 13, 2021, 09:46:51 AM »
Why would you want to have them stop sending you checks?  It seems that it would be easier, if you are worried about a penalty-inducing tax bill in April, to simply pocket the money and send it back as an estimated tax payment.

I don't want to deposit the checks each month .. don't want the mail.

I don't submit estimated tax payments.  I want to deal with taxes once a year, in April.

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1848 on: October 13, 2021, 09:58:51 AM »

Remember, he only has to be tolerant of just those that think exactly like him. No one else.

Tolerance paradox.

has nobody looked this up since I've been saying it on every post that says something along these lines?
Maigh Eo for Sam

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: COVID Economy
« Reply #1849 on: October 13, 2021, 10:02:19 AM »
I don't want to deposit the checks each month .. don't want the mail.

I don't submit estimated tax payments.  I want to deal with taxes once a year, in April.


But you failed to do that when you spent an hour on the phone trying to get them to stop giving you an interest free loan.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow