COVID Economy

[jficke13]

FWIW I'm catching more and more rumblings of job seekers looking at the choice between minimum-wage or near-min-wage jobs and unemployment as one of "poverty and misery at the cost of exploitative labor" vs "poverty and leisure." To those voicing these opinions they see no material difference between 9-10 hours of miserable work with no pathway of advancement that still leaves them accruing life-defining debt and... not doing that.

Maybe it's the rise of the gig economy creating unintended consequences, maybe its the social safety net creating unintended consequences, or maybe its labor making the choice that work at the wages offered isn't acceptable.

I honestly don't know the cause, but I suspect it's a multi-factorial solution.

[jficke13]

Absolutely and to Hards point earlier, it seems everywhere I go there are hiring signs posted.  There was a big segment on local news last night saying how hard it is for companies to find employees which for me is an obvious sign that people simply don’t need the money right now because of all the stimulus being pumped out combined with rent/mortgage moratoriums, not having to pay student loans, etc...

We’ve unfortunately created this delayed timeline of folks returning to work through unnecessary policy (wouldn’t call it bad) just not needed.

Well that's not really true. The rent/mortgage bill will come due, in full, whenever the feds or the courts lift the stay. Rent was never frozen, just the landlord's rights to evict were restricted (in certain, but far from all, circumstances)

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

One of the ways companies can attract more workers is to offer more money.  Crazy right?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I think we're there.  There are hiring signs everywhere.  Rural, Urban, and suburban.  I think what might be a major hiccup is that there are a lot of single parents out there that want jobs, but school is ending and a lot of summer programs are not going.  I know plenty of people who depend on child care from family members and summer programs for their kids so they can work.  Without that infrastructure in place they're having a hard time getting back to work.

Summer camps and events for kids are in full swing this year.

The only exception might be overnight camps, but haven't seen much in the way of a decrease.

[pacearrow02]

One of the ways companies can attract more workers is to offer more money.  Crazy right?

Absolutely!  Hopefully those that can afford to will and that solves this.

[pacearrow02]

There's a million jobs out there.  Today.  Anyone who wants to work tonight's fish fry shift can.  We are so far from 'You don't work, you don't eat' it's unprecedented.

Just saw that there are 7.4 million job postings currently.  Signing and retention bonuses can help speed this up a bit and would be another huge boost to economic recovery.

[naginiF]

One of the ways companies can attract more workers is to offer more money.  Crazy right?

So you're saying supply:demand economics? Crazy

[Hards Alumni]

Summer camps and events for kids are in full swing this year.

The only exception might be overnight camps, but haven't seen much in the way of a decrease.

Not all of them, brother.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

FWIW I'm catching more and more rumblings of job seekers looking at the choice between minimum-wage or near-min-wage jobs and unemployment as one of "poverty and misery at the cost of exploitative labor" vs "poverty and leisure." To those voicing these opinions they see no material difference between 9-10 hours of miserable work with no pathway of advancement that still leaves them accruing life-defining debt and... not doing that.

Maybe it's the rise of the gig economy creating unintended consequences, maybe its the social safety net creating unintended consequences, or maybe its labor making the choice that work at the wages offered isn't acceptable.

I honestly don't know the cause, but I suspect it's a multi-factorial solution.

And this is a really good point too.  Just because there are a bunch of open jobs, and a bunch of people who aren't employed, doesn't mean there is a skills match. 

[Hards Alumni]

One of the ways companies can attract more workers is to offer more money.  Crazy right?

I've seen plenty of billboards advertising wages starting from $17-$22 for warehouse/factory work.  I think that is a fair starting wage for anyone without any sort of college degree.  Disagree?

I know you're going to say that people should be able to negotiate for whatever they think they're worth... and I agree, but these wages aren't something to balk at.  And removing the EUI should encourage people to fill these jobs.  Since that is reason why the EUI was added.  Now, with things getting back towards normal it should be allowed to sunset.

Otherwise, I don't want to hear the general pubic crying that we "need more jobs".

[Coleman]

I saw this yesterday.  Will affect my company negatively on lead times but positively on sales figures.


Copper is ‘the new oil’ and low inventories could push it to $20,000 per ton, analysts say
PUBLISHED THU, MAY 6 2021 12:37 AM EDT
UPDATED THU, MAY 6 2021 11:50 AM EDT
Elliot Smith
@ELLIOTSMITHCNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/06/copper-is-the-new-oil-and-could-hit-20000-per-ton-analysts-say.html

save your pre-1982 pennies!

[Coleman]

One of the ways companies can attract more workers is to offer more money.  Crazy right?

I was gonna say...there's a pretty simple answer to all of this.

If you can't compete with unemployment that pays <$20,000 a year, maybe you really can't afford workers.

[Coleman]

I've seen plenty of billboards advertising wages starting from $17-$22 for warehouse/factory work.  I think that is a fair starting wage for anyone without any sort of college degree.  Disagree?

Let's take yours and my opinion of "fair" out of the equation.

A good wage is whatever someone is willing to work for. Whatever the market will bear. Agree?

[warriorchick]

Well that's not really true. The rent/mortgage bill will come due, in full, whenever the feds or the courts lift the stay. Rent was never frozen, just the landlord's rights to evict were restricted (in certain, but far from all, circumstances)

As someone who worked in the apartment business for close to a decade, here is my prediction of how the delayed-eviction situation will play out.

The minute the moratorium is lifted, the required 5-day notices will go out.  The smart landlords will encourage these people to move out rather than go through the expense and hassle of eviction, and may even offer to give them a good reference to their new landlords.  That way they can rent to someone else - even to someone who is skipping out on another lease - as long as they have the current income to afford the rent.  In the meantime, they work out a payment plan with the former tenant and send the debt to collections if that doesn't work.

The issue with evictions is that once you file for eviction, you can no longer accept money from the tenant, and the courts will be backed up forever.  Even in normal circumstances, an eviction that leads to having to call the sheriff to put them out on the street can take 4-6 months or longer.  Now it will probably take a year or two.

Any any case, I doubt that any landlord will be made completely whole after all this.  The big companies can ride it out, but there are a lot of smaller landlords where rent is the sole (or major) source of their income.

[jficke13]

As someone who worked in the apartment business for close to a decade, here is my prediction of how the delayed-eviction situation will play out.

The minute the moratorium is lifted, the required 5-day notices will go out.  The smart landlords will encourage these people to move out rather than go through the expense and hassle of eviction, and may even offer to give them a good reference to their new landlords.  That way they can rent to someone else - even to someone who is skipping out on another lease - as long as they have the current income to afford the rent.  In the meantime, they work out a payment plan with the former tenant and send the debt to collections if that doesn't work.

The issue with evictions is that once you file for eviction, you can no longer accept money from the tenant, and the courts will be backed up forever.  Even in normal circumstances, an eviction that leads to having to call the sheriff to put them out on the street can take 4-6 months or longer.  Now it will probably take a year or two.

Any any case, I doubt that any landlord will be made completely whole after all this.  The big companies can ride it out, but there are a lot of smaller landlords where rent is the sole (or major) source of their income.

No need to convince me. I helped my clients navigate this whole thing from March 2020 through end of the year. I pushed them, over and over again, to move heaven and earth to help their tenants get access to the covid relief money that was made available. Most of them were able to get that money to the benefit of both tenant and landlord.

By way of example, Berada Properties in Milwaukee was notorious for being the fastest on the draw for filing evictions in the county. He was, by far, the highest volume filer. When relief funds became available, he put someone in his office whose only job was to help tenants get access to those funds. It's smart business.

However, based on my years of dealing with landlords, I would not for an instant be surprised if delinquent accounts not attached to an eviction ended up in a small claims court.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Not all of them, brother.

You know best.

[jesmu84]

FWIW I'm catching more and more rumblings of job seekers looking at the choice between minimum-wage or near-min-wage jobs and unemployment as one of "poverty and misery at the cost of exploitative labor" vs "poverty and leisure." To those voicing these opinions they see no material difference between 9-10 hours of miserable work with no pathway of advancement that still leaves them accruing life-defining debt and... not doing that.

Maybe it's the rise of the gig economy creating unintended consequences, maybe its the social safety net creating unintended consequences, or maybe its labor making the choice that work at the wages offered isn't acceptable.

I honestly don't know the cause, but I suspect it's a multi-factorial solution.

Well said.

I don't agree that current unemployment benefits are completely to blame here.

In fact, most small scale studies on UBI would indicate that isn't the problem at all.

[bananahammock]

My company can’t come close to getting fully staffed. Just guessing, probably need ~ 40 people immediately. Wouldn’t be surprised if they attempt to shed some business as shifts are approaching 12-16 hours. The long hours are causing many to quit and it’s an ugly cycle. Pay is decent with solid benefits and 401K. Rumors of a substantial raise and signing bonuses within the next week. Getting applications but the majority appear to fulfill the unemployment obligations. My hunch is these unemployment benefits are hurting the hiring process along with immigration laws, company biting off more than it can chew, type of work,...

Also, how will the increased wages necessary to lure employees affect inflation (if at all)?

[MUfan12]

I hire for positions from hourly manufacturing to senior/lead engineers, and it's 10x harder to find good hourly help than specialized, senior level engineers. It's a wild market right now.

[pacearrow02]

Well said.

I don't agree that current unemployment benefits are completely to blame here.

In fact, most small scale studies on UBI would indicate that isn't the problem at all.

Chamber of Commerce laid the blame primarily at the feet of the increased/expanded benefits and called for them to be shut down.

The more I’m reading about what appears to be waiting for us around the corner, the more  bleak it appears.

If we’re truly on the brink of hyper inflation and increased rates, any recommendations on what to do with IRAs etc?

[jficke13]

Chamber of Commerce laid the blame primarily at the feet of the increased/expanded benefits and called for them to be shut down.

The more I’m reading about what appears to be waiting for us around the corner, the more  bleak it appears.

If we’re truly on the brink of hyper inflation and increased rates, any recommendations on what to do with IRAs etc?

Easy does it chicken little. We're a far cry from hyper inflation.

Even if inflation increases, which I'll concede is probably a reasonably likely near term outcome, it would be a regression toward the mean of longterm average inflation rates. We've been operating in a fed-controlled low-to-zero inflation environment for so long that the idea that 3-5% inflation seems like a catastrophe when really it's probably more the norm than anything else.

[pacearrow02]

Easy does it chicken little. We're a far cry from hyper inflation.

Even if inflation increases, which I'll concede is probably a reasonably likely near term outcome, it would be a regression toward the mean of longterm average inflation rates. We've been operating in a fed-controlled low-to-zero inflation environment for so long that the idea that 3-5% inflation seems like a catastrophe when really it's probably more the norm than anything else.

🤞🤞I’ll be the first to admit this isn’t my lane.  Just been doing some reading and have been told on hear that 2% inflation is gov’t goal.  More then double that would still be acceptable, honest question? 

What % is too much?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Chamber of Commerce laid the blame primarily at the feet of the increased/expanded benefits and called for them to be shut down.

Wow a pro-business lobby wants to get cheap labor?  Shocking.

[jficke13]

🤞🤞I’ll be the first to admit this isn’t my lane.  Just been doing some reading and have been told on hear that 2% inflation is gov’t goal.  More then double that would still be acceptable, honest question? 

What % is too much?

That's a question well above my pay-grade. Make me call a shot though, and I'd say that most plausible inflation scenarios would just take a little getting used to as companies, money mangers, and assets reprice to accommodate. Would waking up tomorrow to 25% annualized inflation be bad? Sure would (would it be likely... nope). Would waking up tomorrow to 5%? Probably would cause a lot of people who matter to reposition and then the little guys would have some waves to ride for a bit, but does it merit full blown panic? Nope.

(just my off the cuff musings, again, way above my pay grade)

[Hards Alumni]

Let's take yours and my opinion of "fair" out of the equation.

A good wage is whatever someone is willing to work for. Whatever the market will bear. Agree?

I already said that.  But if you want to talk 'market' then get rid of the crutch that is only benefiting the worker to even the playing field, aina?  You don't want to work?  Sure that's fine, but then you don't get EUI to hold you over until you find a job that pays what you think you're worth.  Do you get to 'search' forever?  Now that the economy has demand for workers and obviously has a supply there... why should we continue to provide enhanced unemployment insurance?

Put it this way, there should be no one complaining that jobs aren't available.  We also need to realize that a lot of the jobs that went away during the pandemic aren't coming back.  They're gone.  Adios. 

Now, if we're going to do UBI, let's just do that.  I'm fully on board.  But at this point there is a pinch where the ultra wealthy and newly unemployed are getting a hell of a deal while the rest of us foot the bill.  What we currently have is an unsustainable system. 

And this is the most conservative you will probably ever see me get on this website.