COVID Economy

[The Sultan]

I must still be missing something in the equation.

If we assume for the sake of discussion that with/without taxes a person nets $1,500 per month take home. That's still only $18,000 per year which is @ or below the poverty line for households with 2+ members (setting aside the conversation that the poverty level for a single person is set at $12,880 and whether anyone could actually live on that).

People are walking away from jobs to live close to the poverty line? And if that is the case, is the problem the unemployment insurance, the wage, or something else?

I would guess that a number of people who take these jobs are part of dual income households.  So yeah it can make some sense to have one partner working while the other one stays home, takes care of a child (for example) and collects unemployment.  And decides to continue to do so over the summer until their kids go back to in-person school in September.

Nothing is going to change though.  It is in place until September and will likely be allowed to sunset.

Overpaying is better than underpaying.

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/05/05/labor-shortage-inflation-white-house/

I'm also reading interesting stuff about lumbar. Certainly a lot of talk about the large increase in lumbar price effecting housing and construction projects. Initially, I believed this was tied to lack of supply. But that, apparently, isn't the whole story. There's huge stockpiles of raw lumbar available right now. But in the initial pandemic, mills didn't believe their product would be needed because there would be shutdowns and economic downturn. When available supply at the end supply chain was quickly used, mills and early supple chain folks realized their chance to make $$$ and so are demanding top dollar for their product despite an abundance of materials.

We recent built some raised beds and ended up using cedar instead of treated wood because there wasn't much a price difference.

Also, this isn't just lumber, as Goose has mentioned.  It is quite a few raw materials.

[jesmu84]

We recent built some raised beds and ended up using cedar instead of treated wood because there wasn't much a price difference.

Also, this isn't just lumber, as Goose has mentioned.  It is quite a few raw materials.

For sure. I'm wondering if some of those raw materials have a similar story. Regardless, it doesn't appear to be a lack of materials as I first believed. More of a supply chain mess.

Re: your beds - if I had to build a house right now, pretty sure I'd choose an ICF structure as it seems comparable in price to lumbar.

[Skatastrophy]

For sure. I'm wondering if some of those raw materials have a similar story. Regardless, it doesn't appear to be a lack of materials as I first believed. More of a supply chain mess.

Re: your beds - if I had to build a house right now, pretty sure I'd choose an ICF structure as it seems comparable in price to lumbar.

Yeah, cost-push inflation doesn't usually last as long as demand-pull inflation. Cost-push inflation usually reduces demand, which sorts itself out sooner rather than later. As usual though, economics seems to follow exceptions rather than rules.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

For sure. I'm wondering if some of those raw materials have a similar story. Regardless, it doesn't appear to be a lack of materials as I first believed. More of a supply chain mess.

Re: your beds - if I had to build a house right now, pretty sure I'd choose an ICF structure as it seems comparable in price to lumbar.

The word is lumber.

[Galway Eagle]

The word is lumber.

He might be saying he wouldnt use his lower back to build it. Smart because that's how you throw out your lower back

[The Sultan]

A good lower back is worth the price.

[pbiflyer]

In MO if you made $50,000 in 2020 you would receive $320/wk or $1376/mo unemployment insurance. A person would only have to work 68.8 hours in a month @ $20/hr to earn that. Income tax isn't included in this equation but $50K/yr ~ $25/hr so the math is pretty close.

So, either the clients are not offering employees more that 16 hours of work per week or their story is BS.

Either way $1376/month is NOT keeping people from taking jobs.

We just had a news story about a poor restaurant owner that was desperate for staff. Touching.  Said unemployment insurance was the problem. Seemed genuine.
Well, except that he had just laid off about half his staff and was trying to replace them with people making minimum restaurant wage. And he couldn't fund that because other restaurants are paying more. They left that part of the story out. But it was a Sinclair station, so not surprising, their version fit their narrative.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

A good lower back is worth the price.

I'm laying on an ice pack right now.  No lumberwork for me anytime soon with my lumbar condition.  Hopefully it will loosen up for softball so Big Lumbah can hit dingers.

[jesmu84]

The word is lumber.

Lol.

I've spent too much time in spine surgery, it would seem.

[jesmu84]

I'm laying on an ice pack right now.  No lumberwork for me anytime soon with my lumbar condition.  Hopefully it will loosen up for softball so Big Lumbah can hit dingers.

I'll send you my business card

[MU82]

People are acting as if state unemployment benefits never expire. In NC, they run out after 13 weeks. And I was the one who said $400 for national UE benefits but I was corrected -- it's actually $300, so folks can stop saying $400.

So in NC, beginning with Week 14, you are getting at most $300/week, which is equivalent to $15,600/year. Few if anybody turned down a job because of that.

I know that other states are more generous than NC, but none has unlimited UE benefits. And given that many people have been unemployed since March or April 2020, I'm guessing that for most Americans, state UE benefits are a thing of the past.

[4everwarriors]

The word is lumber.

Yeah, butt have ya checked da price of vertebrae lately, hey?

[The Sultan]

Today's unexpectedly poor jobs report is going to increase concerns that the generous unemployment benefits are preventing people from returning to work.  Some Republican governors are pulling their states out of the program and turning the extra $300 per week into bonuses to get people back to work.

I'm not sure we are quite at the point yet, but by next month we might be.

[Hards Alumni]

Today's unexpectedly poor jobs report is going to increase concerns that the generous unemployment benefits are preventing people from returning to work.  Some Republican governors are pulling their states out of the program and turning the extra $300 per week into bonuses to get people back to work.

I'm not sure we are quite at the point yet, but by next month we might be.

I think we're there.  There are hiring signs everywhere.  Rural, Urban, and suburban.  I think what might be a major hiccup is that there are a lot of single parents out there that want jobs, but school is ending and a lot of summer programs are not going.  I know plenty of people who depend on child care from family members and summer programs for their kids so they can work.  Without that infrastructure in place they're having a hard time getting back to work.

[jsglow]

Today's unexpectedly poor jobs report is going to increase concerns that the generous unemployment benefits are preventing people from returning to work.  Some Republican governors are pulling their states out of the program and turning the extra $300 per week into bonuses to get people back to work.

I'm not sure we are quite at the point yet, but by next month we might be.

We're there.  Although I'd tweak your wording to 'discouraging'.  And couple this with any remaining ill advised foreclosure/eviction moratoriums for the 'perfect storm'.

[pacearrow02]

Goodness, on expectations of 1 million we couldn't even muster 300k.

At least feds won't as likely to raise rates.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I saw this yesterday.  Will affect my company negatively on lead times but positively on sales figures.


Copper is 'the new oil' and low inventories could push it to $20,000 per ton, analysts say
PUBLISHED THU, MAY 6 2021 12:37 AM EDT
UPDATED THU, MAY 6 2021 11:50 AM EDT
Elliot Smith
@ELLIOTSMITHCNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/06/copper-is-the-new-oil-and-could-hit-20000-per-ton-analysts-say.html

[pacearrow02]

And they revised March numbers over 200k lower!?!?!? What a mess

[Hards Alumni]

Goodness, on expectations of 1 million we couldn't even muster 300k.

At least feds won't as likely to raise rates.

Also interesting to note is how projections could be that far off.

[jsglow]

Goodness, on expectations of 1 million we couldn't even muster 300k.

At least feds won't as likely to raise rates.

There's a million jobs out there.  Today.  Anyone who wants to work tonight's fish fry shift can.  We are so far from 'You don't work, you don't eat' it's unprecedented.

[Hards Alumni]

There's a million jobs out there.  Today.  Anyone who wants to work tonight's fish fry shift can.  We are so far from 'You don't work, you don't eat' it's unprecedented.

While I don't totally disagree, not all jobs are created equal. 

[jsglow]

While I don't totally disagree, not all jobs are created equal. 

Of course not.  And as it should be.

[pacearrow02]

There's a million jobs out there.  Today.  Anyone who wants to work tonight's fish fry shift can.  We are so far from 'You don't work, you don't eat' it's unprecedented.

Absolutely and to Hards point earlier, it seems everywhere I go there are hiring signs posted.  There was a big segment on local news last night saying how hard it is for companies to find employees which for me is an obvious sign that people simply don't need the money right now because of all the stimulus being pumped out combined with rent/mortgage moratoriums, not having to pay student loans, etc...

We've unfortunately created this delayed timeline of folks returning to work through unnecessary policy (wouldn't call it bad) just not needed.

[cheebs09]

Absolutely and to Hards point earlier, it seems everywhere I go there are hiring signs posted.  There was a big segment on local news last night saying how hard it is for companies to find employees which for me is an obvious sign that people simply don't need the money right now because of all the stimulus being pumped out combined with rent/mortgage moratoriums, not having to pay student loans, etc...

We've unfortunately created this delayed timeline of folks returning to work through unnecessary policy (wouldn't call it bad) just not needed.

I read an article in the WSJ that listed the benefits as a reason, but not the only one. Many don't feel comfortable going back until Covid is more under control or vaccinated. Many have child care issues with schools still being remote. Many are holding out for jobs in their industry rather than setting for a job at McDonalds.

Maybe the benefits are making the above reasons easier to justify, but I don't think we can point solely to the benefits as the issue.