COVID Economy

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The China trade war is some grand-scale buffoonery by the current administration, resulting in years of bailouts for our nation's farmers.

The US should rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership (the partnership negotiations started by George W. Bush, continued by Obama, and hissy-fit withdrawn by Trump but signed by all other member-nations) and be done with it. Get back on the free-trade path, it has been extremely profitable for US businesses and shareholders. This "America first" crap to sell a bygone era to middle America is nothing but a pipe dream, and ending the trade war would be a huge shot in the arm for US companies as we come out of the pandemic.

I agree. 
And isn't the NAFTA 2.0 Windows 10 upgrade known as whatever dumb name Trump gave it, essentially many of the elements that Canada and Mexico already agreed to in the TPP except Trump watered them down every further.

[jesmu84]

Not true:  https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

Fair. Appreciate the correction.

I would still come to the same conclusion that what's good for global corporations is not necessarily good for US citizens. Especially long-term

[Skatastrophy]

Not true:  https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

You're not wrong disputing "most." The SEC has a good breakdown (with more exact information than Gallup has) along with the vulnerable segments of the population that jesmu84 was referring to on pg. 7 and 8.

https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/fixed-income-advisory-committee/finra-investor-education-foundation-investor-households-fimsa-040918.pdf

[forgetful]

Fair. Appreciate the correction.

I would still come to the same conclusion that what's good for global corporations is not necessarily good for US citizens. Especially long-term

Not the place for this discussion, but there is more to the TPP than immediate economic effects. There is also a fight for geo-political influence, market access, and numerous other political and economic ramifications.

TPP was as much a battle for influence and market access as it was a trade pact. The political influence aspects alone were of high value to the average American, it is just more difficult to quantify and to realize than immediate economic gains.

[shoothoops]

1)  What are some of the solutions for those people, when we want to discuss 401k's etc...since we're here to solve problems. Half don't have them, and the average amounts, see #2.

2) Before we move on, what's in those 401k's? Here is some data to suggest that the average amount in a worker 401k recently was $18,443, or a retirement check of $104 a month.


https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/ceo-compensation-pension/

https://www.foreffectivegov.org/two-retirements

[TSmith34, Inc.]

1)  What are some of the solutions for those people, when we want to discuss 401k's etc...since we're here to solve problems. Half don't have them, and the average amounts, see #2.

2) Before we move on, what's in those 401k's? Here is some data to suggest that the average amount in a worker 401k recently was $18,443, or a retirement check of $104 a month.


https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/ceo-compensation-pension/

https://www.foreffectivegov.org/two-retirements

That data is slightly out of date (from 2013). Below is a more detailed look by age ranges. Still not great, but slightly better. At retirement age, the median balance is ~$60,000.

[shoothoops]

That data is slightly out of date (from 2013). Below is a more detailed look by age ranges. Still not great, but slightly better. At retirement age, the median balance is ~$60,000.

2019 Median $22,217. Vanguard analysis.

https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/average-401k-balance

[forgetful]

At this point, with cases rising as rapidly as they are, a 30-day shutdown would likely save over 100,000 lives. Is that worth it, I believe it is.

We can try to get this under control, while ramping up vaccine production. Emerge from a 30-45 day shutdown (get past the holidays) with possibly 35M vaccinated or soon to be vaccinated.

Targeted stimulus package focusing on small business owners, and those out of work. Make them whole during the shutdown.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

That data is slightly out of date (from 2013). Below is a more detailed look by age ranges. Still not great, but slightly better. At retirement age, the median balance is ~$60,000.

How many of these are accounts that someone has earned from previous employers and simply haven't been rolled-over or consolidated?  I say this because it says average balance of 401k, and not 401k savings per individual.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

At this point, with cases rising as rapidly as they are, a 30-day shutdown would likely save over 100,000 lives. Is that worth it, I believe it is.

I don't think that is the path that will be taken anywhere from here forward - too blunt and charged.  I personally think targeted interventions are warranted almost everywhere.  We have a good case study of what is checking the exponential rise in cases in EU and now a state model coming with MI if they are able to stick to it.  That is more likely what occurs with week by week re-evaluation. 

We unfortunately live in a time of hyperbole and over-simplification - when nuance and flexible adjustments is likely the path that gets us to the vaccine with minimal death and economic disruption

[Hards Alumni]

Not true:  https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

That is a gallup poll.  You trust Americans knowledge far too much.

[forgetful]

I don't think that is the path that will be taken anywhere from here forward - too blunt and charged.  I personally think targeted interventions are warranted almost everywhere.  We have a good case study of what is checking the exponential rise in cases in EU and now a state model coming with MI if they are able to stick to it.  That is more likely what occurs with week by week re-evaluation. 

We unfortunately live in a time of hyperbole and over-simplification - when nuance and flexible adjustments is likely the path that gets us to the vaccine with minimal death and economic disruption

I think we are in agreement. When I say shutdowns, they largely mirror the targeted interventions. Shut down bars. Restaurants take out only, etc.

[warriorchick]

That is a gallup poll.  You trust Americans knowledge far too much.

You don't think most Americans know whether or not they own stocks or not?

If anything, the percentage might be too low, because there are some people who are going to say, "I don't own any stock. My 401k is in mutual funds."  Or "I don't own any stocks because I have a pension", not realizing that most pensions are backed by investments.

[shoothoops]

COVID-19 Economy.

The lines at the Milwaukee WI Food Bank:

https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/1328518218034671616?s=19

[Pakuni]

You don't think most Americans know whether or not they own stocks or not?

If anything, the percentage might be too low, because there are some people who are going to say, "I don't own any stock. My 401k is in mutual funds."  Or "I don't own any stocks because I have a pension", not realizing that most pensions are backed by investments.

Whether 47 percent or 51 percent of 55 percent of the public owns stock kinda misses the point, because the vast majority of those people own very little stock.
The fact is that the top 10 percent of households by net worth own about 88 percent of the market.
So when people point to the market as an indicator of economic, what they're really saying is that the economy is good for the already wealthy.

[warriorchick]

Whether 47 percent or 51 percent of 55 percent of the public owns stock kinda misses the point, because the vast majority of those people own very little stock.
The fact is that the top 10 percent of households by net worth own about 88 percent of the market.
So when people point to the market as an indicator of economic, what they're really saying is that the economy is good for the already wealthy.

So, the crash of 1929 and Black Monday of 1987 didn't affect anyone but people who owned stock?

[Hards Alumni]

You don't think most Americans know whether or not they own stocks or not?

If anything, the percentage might be too low, because there are some people who are going to say, "I don't own any stock. My 401k is in mutual funds."  Or "I don't own any stocks because I have a pension", not realizing that most pensions are backed by investments.

Yes, that is what I am saying.  Or they think they do.  Or they think social security is 'stocks'.  The average person if far far dumber than you're giving them credit for.

[Pakuni]

So, the crash of 1929 and Black Monday of 1987 didn't affect anyone but people who owned stock?

Holy red herring ...
If that's what honestly you got from what I wrote, I don't know what to say.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

So, the crash of 1929 and Black Monday of 1987 didn't affect anyone but people who owned stock?

Initially?  No. 

[GooooMarquette]

You don't think most Americans know whether or not they own stocks or not?

If anything, the percentage might be too low, because there are some people who are going to say, "I don't own any stock. My 401k is in mutual funds."  Or "I don't own any stocks because I have a pension", not realizing that most pensions are backed by investments.

Gallup specifically asked about mutual funds, and anything owned in a "retirement savings account, like a 401(k) or IRA."

https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

Gallup's measure of consumer stock ownership is based on a question asking respondents about any individual stocks they may own, as well as stocks included in a mutual fund or retirement savings account, like a 401(k) or IRA.

[warriorchick]

Gallup specifically asked about mutual funds, and anything owned in a "retirement savings account, like a 401(k) or IRA."

https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

Gallup's measure of consumer stock ownership is based on a question asking respondents about any individual stocks they may own, as well as stocks included in a mutual fund or retirement savings account, like a 401(k) or IRA.

55% of respondents to the poll said they owned stock.  Hards implied that a plurality of Americans are too stupid to respond to this question correctly.  So what would is the more likely scenario: that people said that they didn't own stock when they actuality did, or that they thought that they owned stock when in reality, they didn't?  Looks like a false negative is more likely than a false positive.

Also, they didn't ask about pensions, which would bump that 55% up a few more points.

[Hards Alumni]

55% of respondents to the poll said they owned stock.  Hards implied that a plurality of Americans are too stupid to respond to this question correctly.  So what would is the more likely scenario: that people said that they didn't own stock when they actuality did, or that they thought that they owned stock when in reality, they didn't?  Looks like a false negative is more likely than a false positive.

Also, they didn't ask about pensions, which would bump that 55% up a few more points.

To be precise, a narrow majority of Americans does own stocks, according to credible recent studies. But Khanna has a point that Americans of modest incomes are significantly less invested in the stock market than wealthier Americans are. Other large groups, including minorities and those without a college education, also lag in stock ownership, meaning that the stock rally is largely passing them by.

Okay, I will give you that the majority of Americans BELIEVE they own "stocks", but most that do own stocks, don't own much. 

Also, it is well established that self reporting is a terrible way of measuring something like this.

[shoothoops]

As some have pointed out, let's see the forest for the trees as opposed to being pedantic about other things.

Many people don't own stocks. And regarding the ones who do, the amount owned is small.

When the stock market does well, how does that help the many who don't own stocks, and, again, of they do, own such a small amount? Wealthy Corporate Buybacks don't help these people etc ..

Some people (not all) get caught up in discussing the stock market when discussing the economy. Gotta meet those quarterly numbers like a hamster on a wheel. As has been pointed out, that's great for the small percentage of people who own the majority of stocks and have thr majority of wealth. But there is the whole other big group of everyone else out there.

Let's see the forest.

[Coleman]

Average 401k balance means nothing. It is a worthless statistic.

I have 3 401ks. One has over $100k, one has about $30k and the other has about $25k.

My average is about $50k, even though I have 3x that in actual savings.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

To be precise, a narrow majority of Americans does own stocks, according to credible recent studies. But Khanna has a point that Americans of modest incomes are significantly less invested in the stock market than wealthier Americans are. Other large groups, including minorities and those without a college education, also lag in stock ownership, meaning that the stock rally is largely passing them by.

Okay, I will give you that the majority of Americans BELIEVE they own "stocks", but most that do own stocks, don't own much. 

Also, it is well established that self reporting is a terrible way of measuring something like this.

Versus your, like, opinion, man?