COVID Economy

[GooooMarquette]

Mitch McConnell says a coronavirus stimulus package is 'unlikely in the next three weeks'

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/coronavirus-stimulus-mitch-mcconnell-says-relief-deal-unlikely-soon.html

Congress likely will not pass another coronavirus stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Friday.

The White House and Democrats have restarted last-ditch talks toward an elusive relief deal. Speaking in his home state of Kentucky, the Republican said "the situation's kind of murky" as negotiators try to "elbow for political advantage."

"I'd like to see us rise above that like we did back in March and April, but I think that's unlikely in the next three weeks," he said.

[jesmu84]

Any stimulus should go to individuals. Not corporations/business/industries.

[mu_hilltopper]

Any stimulus should go to individuals. Not corporations/business/industries.

I would add state governments to that list.   Otherwise: Doom.

[MU82]

About a half-hour ago, Trump tweeted that talks are progressing and urged negotiators to "Go Big!"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1314593632733847552

He saw that he was getting blamed. He also wants the markets to keep going up these next few weeks.

[shoothoops]

Ministry that spent $180k at Trump DC Hotel in 2018, receives $350k-$1 Million PPP loan in 2020.

https://twitter.com/Z_Everson/status/1314909063919132674?s=19

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Republicans in the Senate have problems with White House offer on stimulus.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/520489-senate-republicans-rip-new-white-house-coronavirus-proposal?fbclid=IwAR1TngesqpesMjfUTNr9qNH2xk-qI8S6wpTcn-AahZ0kNcuie_rSvSJxW8k

[GooooMarquette]

Republicans in the Senate have problems with White House offer on stimulus.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/520489-senate-republicans-rip-new-white-house-coronavirus-proposal?fbclid=IwAR1TngesqpesMjfUTNr9qNH2xk-qI8S6wpTcn-AahZ0kNcuie_rSvSJxW8k

Trump is throwing a Hail Mary before the election, and the Senate Republicans are taking a more long-term (traditionally conservative) view.

The sad part is that there are some truly needy people who are caught in the middle.

[MU82]

Trump wants money that he can dole out. House Dens want the money to be designated for specific things. McConnell wants none of it - just another conservative SCOTUS while he still has a president under his sway.

[MU82]

From the NYT:

We already know, thanks to Bob Woodward's book, that Trump was fully aware of how severe the coronavirus was back in February, even as he was publicly downplaying it and lying about it for months.

As it happens, Larry Kudlow and other senior White House economists that month repeatedly warned board members at the conservative Hoover Institution — many of them Republican donors — about the dangers of the virus during closed-door meetings, at a time when some of those same officials were giving rosy predictions to the public.

A hedge fund consultant who attended the meetings wrote a memo that circulated among hedge fund investors, with one clear message: that a devastating virus outbreak in the United States was increasingly likely.

Or, as one major investor who was briefed on the memo reacted, "Short everything!"

The information from the administration helped give elite traders a financial advantage by offering them a sobering economic assessment during a chaotic stretch in late February, when the public was struggling to understand the severity of the crisis.

[GooooMarquette]

Nearly 900,000 filed new state unemployment claims last week.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/15/business/us-economy-coronavirus?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#nearly-900000-filed-new-state-unemployment-claims-last-week

[TSmith34, Inc.]

From the NYT:

We already know, thanks to Bob Woodward's book, that Trump was fully aware of how severe the coronavirus was back in February, even as he was publicly downplaying it and lying about it for months.

As it happens, Larry Kudlow and other senior White House economists that month repeatedly warned board members at the conservative Hoover Institution — many of them Republican donors — about the dangers of the virus during closed-door meetings, at a time when some of those same officials were giving rosy predictions to the public.

A hedge fund consultant who attended the meetings wrote a memo that circulated among hedge fund investors, with one clear message: that a devastating virus outbreak in the United States was increasingly likely.

Or, as one major investor who was briefed on the memo reacted, "Short everything!"

The information from the administration helped give elite traders a financial advantage by offering them a sobering economic assessment during a chaotic stretch in late February, when the public was struggling to understand the severity of the crisis.

And the punishment for trading on inside information will be?

Yeah, I know.

[The Sultan]

And the punishment for trading on inside information will be?

Yeah, I know.

I don't think this violates insider trading laws.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I don't think this violates insider trading laws.

You may be right, I am no expert on it. They were trading on information not publicly available, yet I do not know if it meets the letter of the law. Either way, it shows how fucked up the system is.

[forgetful]

You may be right, I am no expert on it. They were trading on information not publicly available, yet I do not know if it meets the letter of the law. Either way, it shows how unnatural carnal knowledgeed up the system is.

I know they wouldn't be charged for it, but...

Were the officials paid, either directly or as donations, for their attendance and information. If so, could you get them on federal bribery charges. Disclosing non-public information for personal benefit, then lying about the information in public.

[The Sultan]

You may be right, I am no expert on it. They were trading on information not publicly available, yet I do not know if it meets the letter of the law. Either way, it shows how unnatural carnal knowledgeed up the system is.

Insider trading laws are about company insiders trading on information about that company, or a company they have a relationship with.  Not about information shared that impacts the economy or markets at large.

At least this is my understanding.

[MU82]

Illegal or not, to give the 0.1% privileged information about a deadly virus just so they can make money off of it, while telling the 99.9% the exact opposite, is about as unethical and corrupt as it gets.

[The Sultan]

Illegal or not, to give the 0.1% privileged information about a deadly virus just so they can make money off of it, while telling the 99.9% the exact opposite, is about as unethical and corrupt as it gets.

Oh I don't disagree with that.

And it's not just giving the information that's unethical, it's the decision to profit off of it instead of spreading the news far and wide.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Insider trading laws are about company insiders trading on information about that company, or a company they have a relationship with.  Not about information shared that impacts the economy or markets at large.

At least this is my understanding.

Pretty sure Martha Stewart wasn't a company insider when she get pinged. Also, if I tell my buddy about good or bad news about to come out and he trades on the information, he is guilty of insider trading despite not being an insider at the company.

[The Sultan]

Pretty sure Martha Stewart wasn't a company insider when she get pinged. Also, if I tell my buddy about good or bad news about to come out and he trades on the information, he is guilty of insider trading despite not being an insider at the company.

But the tip she received was about a specific company, not the economy overall.

[JWags85]

But the tip she received was about a specific company, not the economy overall.

Right, your buddy who works on Capitol Hill and hears something about legislation being passed or the weekly unemployment numbers and tells you is different than working at public company and tipping you off about earnings beating/missing, or leaking that a scandal/merger deal is happening days before it does

[GooooMarquette]

Right, your buddy who works on Capitol Hill and hears something about legislation being passed or the weekly unemployment numbers and tells you is different than working at public company and tipping you off about earnings beating/missing, or leaking that a scandal/merger deal is happening days before it does

Yep. The way I like to explain the law is to distinguish between 'company-specific' inside information and more general information that might affect multiple companies.

If a person gets material non-public information about a specific company and trades on it, it's likely insider trading. If he gets material non-public information about the overall economy or a piece of legislation and trades on it, it isn't.

[Pakuni]

FWIW, the SEC's definition of insider trading:

Illegal insider trading refers generally to buying or selling a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, on the basis of material, nonpublic information about the security. Insider trading violations may also include "tipping" such information, securities trading by the person "tipped," and securities trading by those who misappropriate such information.

[MU82]

FWIW, the SEC's definition of insider trading:

Illegal insider trading refers generally to buying or selling a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, on the basis of material, nonpublic information about the security. Insider trading violations may also include "tipping" such information, securities trading by the person "tipped," and securities trading by those who misappropriate such information.

Hmmm.

Lock them up! Lock them up!

[jesmu84]

Give money to the individuals who need it.

Ideally, monthly checks of 1200+ to those making less than 125k (or other set amount) until the "end" of the pandemic.

Pelosi needs to accept the deal with minor changes. But politics>policy in washington.

[Hards Alumni]

Give money to the individuals who need it.

Ideally, monthly checks of 1200+ to those making less than 125k (or other set amount) until the "end" of the pandemic.

Pelosi needs to accept the deal with minor changes. But politics>policy in washington.

I'm not sure Pelosi is the hold up here.  McConnell is and has been.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-torpedoes-stimulus-package-180157058.html