COVID Economy

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Ours lengthened plus Saturdays

Working more for less seems like the theme of Covid. 

[rocket surgeon]

Haven't left. Just sew fookin' slammed in dis white hot economy. Tryin' ta take care of 12 months of patients in 9.5 months = workin' my ass off, hey?

  and we need more time per patient for temp taking, paperwork/consent forms, extra room disinfection.  they did however, drop the 15 minute mini quarantine of  rooms which had aerosol producing procedures

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

[GooooMarquette]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

Not terribly surprising. Restaurants are the one place where even people who want to wear masks have to take them off eventually. Add the fact that you are putting things into your mouth and generally putting your hands around your face, and you have the ideal scenario for the virus to spread.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Lack of focus on control starting to have real economic impacts

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/503953-louisiana-pushes-back-next-reopening-phase-by-4-weeks-as-coronavirus

My point in a picture

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yep.  People aren't going to go out unless they feel safe. 

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is interesting but also bode well for a quick recovery. 

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1278766321610735620?s=21

[reinko]

This is interesting but also bode well for a quick recovery. 

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1278766321610735620?s=21

Just posted the same in the restaurant thread 😂

[forgetful]

Wondering if the business folks can help explain this. The 2nd quarter GDP numbers came out with a decrease in GDP for the quarter of $1.8T. Confused how that is possible.

The total GDP for the quarter based on our current GDP would be around $5.1T. So a decrease of $1.8T would indicate a net activity of $3.3T.

The government exceeded that number in spending alone (not sure if FED stimulus gets lumped in, but even the direct government spending was around $3.3T).

I'm sure I'm missing a lot, but can anyone explain this further to me.

[JWags85]

Wondering if the business folks can help explain this. The 2nd quarter GDP numbers came out with a decrease in GDP for the quarter of $1.8T. Confused how that is possible.

The total GDP for the quarter based on our current GDP would be around $5.1T. So a decrease of $1.8T would indicate a net activity of $3.3T.

The government exceeded that number in spending alone (not sure if FED stimulus gets lumped in, but even the direct government spending was around $3.3T).

I'm sure I'm missing a lot, but can anyone explain this further to me.

I have to look more into the numbers, but government payments don’t factor into GDP

[forgetful]

I have to look more into the numbers, but government payments don’t factor into GDP

Thanks, I figured they would count as government spending, but I guess they may treat it more like Social Security. I would also think then the raw numbers make the GDP effect seem worse than it is in reality, that money is now out there and will enter the GDP.

But I am a bit naive in this area, so appreciate any info/corrections.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Japan 2Q GDP down 7.8% QoQ and 28% annualized.  In my opinion this shows the enemy pretty clearly as they did not have overly restrictive lockdowns there as they have been working to contain the virus. 

[GooooMarquette]

I suspect this story is playing out in tens of millions of households around the country. Great for the financial stability of the individual and his/her family, but it doesn’t seem like a recipe for economic growth.

How the Pandemic Will Change the Way We Manage Money Forever

https://www.newsweek.com/2020/09/04/how-pandemic-will-change-way-we-manage-money-forever-1528556.html

[JWags85]

I suspect this story is playing out in tens of millions of households around the country. Great for the financial stability of the individual and his/her family, but it doesn’t seem like a recipe for economic growth.

How the Pandemic Will Change the Way We Manage Money Forever

https://www.newsweek.com/2020/09/04/how-pandemic-will-change-way-we-manage-money-forever-1528556.html

I was in HS during 9/11 and trying to find a job in terrible circumstances during the 2008 crash, so I didn’t read or have the perspective, but was it as heavy with “how XYZ will change FOREVER” articles” as this is now?

[Jockey]

I was in HS during 9/11 and trying to find a job in terrible circumstances during the 2008 crash, so I didn’t read or have the perspective, but was it as heavy with “how XYZ will change FOREVER” articles” as this is now?

Yes, it was.

[Jockey]

I was in HS during 9/11 and trying to find a job in terrible circumstances during the 2008 crash, so I didn’t read or have the perspective, but was it as heavy with “how XYZ will change FOREVER” articles” as this is now?

Goo, I'm too lazy to go back and look, but I believe it was April or May when I posted that this would happen. Too many people got caught with no fallback money. At least for the next several years, Covid will change the way people handle their cash.

[MU82]

At least for the next several years, Covid will change the way people handle their cash.

Not to mention their toilet paper stockpile.

[GooooMarquette]

I was in HS during 9/11 and trying to find a job in terrible circumstances during the 2008 crash, so I didn’t read or have the perspective, but was it as heavy with “how XYZ will change FOREVER” articles” as this is now?

There were a ton of such articles after 9/11, but I believe the RANGE of things predicted to change is broader this time.

After 9/11, everybody assumed most everything related to travel or going to crowded venues would change (and that largely has proven true; witness an airport security line or getting into a sporting event). This time, the changes relate to everything from where you work, to whether you go out to eat, to the way people spend their money, and more.

[JWags85]

There were a ton of such articles after 9/11, but I believe the RANGE of things predicted to change is broader this time.

After 9/11, everybody assumed most everything related to travel or going to crowded venues would change (and that largely has proven true; witness an airport security line or getting into a sporting event). This time, the changes relate to everything from where you work, to whether you go out to eat, to the way people spend their money, and more.

Fair enough. Certain things changed, but life largely resumed as normal in the vast majority of fashions. I feel the same will happen with COVID on a longer time frame. Sure there will be changes, but people will go back to going out to restaurants, packing stadiums, flying, going to the office, etc... hence I sort of roll my eyes at everything but the nuanced “COVID has shown the impracticality of X” examples. If people didn’t radically improve their saving/spending/money management after 2008, I find it hard to believe the last 6 months, where evictions were protected and financial incentives were given to many, usher in some profound sea change in perpetuity.

As we’ve mentioned plenty of times, humans, especially Americans, are very resilient and elastic, which leads to skepticism over all the brave new world forecasts across the board

[rocky_warrior]

If people didn’t radically improve their saving/spending/money management after 2008, I find it hard to believe the last 6 months, where evictions were protected and financial incentives were given to many, usher in some profound sea change in perpetuity.

Generally agree, but it has been 12 years since. I do believe this had spurred a new wave of young savers that had only seen increasing stock market returns for a decade...

[GooooMarquette]

Fair enough. Certain things changed, but life largely resumed as normal in the vast majority of fashions. I feel the same will happen with COVID on a longer time frame. Sure there will be changes, but people will go back to going out to restaurants, packing stadiums, flying, going to the office, etc... hence I sort of roll my eyes at everything but the nuanced “COVID has shown the impracticality of X” examples. If people didn’t radically improve their saving/spending/money management after 2008, I find it hard to believe the last 6 months, where evictions were protected and financial incentives were given to many, usher in some profound sea change in perpetuity.

As we’ve mentioned plenty of times, humans, especially Americans, are very resilient and elastic, which leads to skepticism over all the brave new world forecasts across the board

I agree that many of the headlines overplay the degree to which things will change long–term. Still, I still think the changes we do see will be far more significant and wide-ranging than they were after 9/11.

I also think it will take longer for many of the ‘temporary‘ changes to get back to normal, because a disaster that goes on for months and months has a way of sticking in peoples’ memories.

Time will tell, but first we need to get past the immediate crisis. I only hope we aren’t still waiting for the ‘after’ phase six months from now…

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The reason there is so much speculation is these events always drive great change.  It’s just that no one knows exactly what. 

Is it all going to happen, no.  Is it a ‘Meh the media’ moment.  Nope. 

[jesmu84]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/business/share-buybacks-hazard-pay/index.html

Cool.

[jesmu84]

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/09/23/companies-shed-workers-paid-dividends-after-getting-fed-aid-panel-finds-420537

ELI5?

[Eldon]

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/09/23/companies-shed-workers-paid-dividends-after-getting-fed-aid-panel-finds-420537

ELI5?

Do you really care to understand or are you making a point?