COVID Economy

[GooooMarquette]

I love this.  I’ve been using an Apple credit card with contactless Apple Pay as much as possible.  Between that and some restaurants taking Venmo, etc.  I hope I never have to sign another CC receipt ever again.

Yep. Apple Pay is awesome!

[Jockey]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/21/banks-have-grown-by-2-trillion-in-deposits-since-coronavirus-first-hit.html

Does this mean good, bad or indifferent things for your average American?

It means the economy will grow slower than a lot of people expect over the summer.

[mu_hilltopper]

It means the economy will grow slower than a lot of people expect over the summer.

You're probably right, but when I read that article, it would lead me to conclude/hope the opposite.

People have a ton of money in the bank.  They didn't have a place to spend money, no entertainment, little retail, they saved and built bank balances.  Sure, 20% may be out of work, but 80% are collecting paychecks. 

With economies "opening up" .. now they have a place to spend their savings.

[MU82]

You're probably right, but when I read that article, it would lead me to conclude/hope the opposite.

People have a ton of money in the bank.  They didn't have a place to spend money, no entertainment, little retail, they saved and built bank balances.  Sure, 20% may be out of work, but 80% are collecting paychecks. 

With economies "opening up" .. now they have a place to spend their savings.

Those weekly $600 "enhanced unemployment" checks end in one month and McConnell has already said that's it for those. There will be a lot fewer people with any extra money, and the employment level will still be at its worst level since the Great Depression.

I'd love to be as hopeful as you, 'toppy, but I'm not sure I can be.

[warriorchick]

Those weekly $600 "enhanced unemployment" checks end in one month and McConnell has already said that's it for those. There will be a lot fewer people with any extra money, and the employment level will still be at its worst level since the Great Depression.

I'd love to be as hopeful as you, 'toppy, but I'm not sure I can be.

I know it's anecdotal, but over the last week or so I struck up conversations with several business owners who told me they are having trouble filling their open positions because people would rather collect the enhanced unemployment.

It will be interesting to see what the unemployment rate is a few weeks after that program ends.

[jesmu84]

I know it's anecdotal, but over the last week or so I struck up conversations with several business owners who told me they are having trouble filling their open positions because people would rather collect the enhanced unemployment.

It will be interesting to see what the unemployment rate is a few weeks after that program ends.

Uber/Lyft drivers have all but disappeared in Indianapolis because of unemployment payments. Even someone who only drove a few hours per week apparently was eligible for the payments.

Because of that, waiting times and costs for rides were astronomical this weekend.

July 4 weekend will be interesting.

[Hards Alumni]

I know it's anecdotal, but over the last week or so I struck up conversations with several business owners who told me they are having trouble filling their open positions because people would rather collect the enhanced unemployment.

It will be interesting to see what the unemployment rate is a few weeks after that program ends.

Did they furlough their old employees or terminate them?

And I agree, the PPP ended over a week ago for us, so now 50% of our employees are headed back to UI.  IMO, the UI numbers will skyrocket until the extra UI money ends.  IMO, that probably should have coincided with PPP ending.

[🏀]

I know it's anecdotal, but over the last week or so I struck up conversations with several business owners who told me they are having trouble filling their open positions because people would rather collect the enhanced unemployment.

It will be interesting to see what the unemployment rate is a few weeks after that program ends.

Luckily one of my competitors started paying cash for one particular type of trade. I've lost two long term employees due to this.

[MarquetteDano]

I know it's anecdotal, but over the last week or so I struck up conversations with several business owners who told me they are having trouble filling their open positions because people would rather collect the enhanced unemployment.

It will be interesting to see what the unemployment rate is a few weeks after that program ends.

I think economists are saying this is way more than anecdotal.  Instead of the just the set $600 per week amount,  most economists are saying that $600 plus state unemployment should never be more than 90% of your max earnings from the past 2 years.

If they keep the additional payment it MUST have a max based on previous earnings.

[#UnleashSean]

I know it's anecdotal, but over the last week or so I struck up conversations with several business owners who told me they are having trouble filling their open positions because people would rather collect the enhanced unemployment.

It will be interesting to see what the unemployment rate is a few weeks after that program ends.

This is currently my problem at our group homes. We are so short staffed because we can't hire anyone due to them all making just as much on unemployment.

[MU82]

It's definitely more than anecdotal.

It's also temporary, and will be ending in a month.

At the time they set policy, politicians did not know when significant hiring would be able to resume, and they wanted to help people devastated by the pandemic pay their rent, buy food, pay for critical services, etc. So they made an educated guess and went with April 4 - July 25 as the period for the $600/week extra UI payments.

Had they only gone through, say, June 15 and it was worse than that, they would have had to call emergency sessions and pound something else through. Had they gone to, say, Sept. 15, and economies opened sooner, they would have gone too far.

It's easy to sit here at the end of June and talk about a decision they had to make 3 months ago, when the pandemic was so bad that even a president who had been in total denial was forced to acknowledge it. All in all, given what they knew, I think they did pretty decent job.

The $600 will end in a matter of weeks, and then we'll see how many jobs there are for those folks to go to. Hopefully lots of 'em.

[mu_hilltopper]

Those weekly $600 "enhanced unemployment" checks end in one month and McConnell has already said that's it for those. There will be a lot fewer people with any extra money, and the employment level will still be at its worst level since the Great Depression.

I'd love to be as hopeful as you, 'toppy, but I'm not sure I can be.

You mis-read.  I am not hopeful.   There will be extra spending by the 80% -- and the 20% aren't destitute right now .. but they will be.

[MU82]

You mis-read.  I am not hopeful.   There will be extra spending by the 80% -- and the 20% aren't destitute right now .. but they will be.

I understand. Sorry about the confusion.

Meanwhile ...

This is a big week in NC, as our governor will decide if we're ready for Phase 3, which would mean the re-opening of pretty much the entire economy. Already, most restaurants and numerous other establishments are open for business here.

Unfortunately, the metrics aren't really favorable.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243707932.html?

Phase Two of North Carolina’s coronavirus reopening is scheduled to end Friday.

But the state is dealing with a rising number of cases, hospitalizations and percentage of tests that are positive — three of the key indicators Gov. Roy Cooper and his administration said they are watching as they make decisions about reopening.

“Key metrics are moving in the wrong direction,” Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Mandy Cohen said Monday afternoon.

Cohen said officials are trying to balance competing interests — “reigniting” the state’s economy, protecting public health and not overburdening the health care system.

Data from hospitals indicate that the Charlotte, Triangle and Greenville regions are driving the state’s rapid rise in hospitalizations from COVID. A new report analyzing those numbers suggests that those regions have between six and 13 weeks of hospital capacity left “if current conditions hold.” The report indicated that things can change swiftly.

“As we think about Phase Three, one option I think we have is to approach Phase Three regionally,” said Aaron McKethan, a faculty member at Duke’s School of Medicine and part of the group that analyzed the numbers and produced a six-page brief. “There are certain regions that need to be more aggressive than others in suppressing the rate of transmission.”

The governor has alluded in the past to a possible Phase 2.5, and that last paragraph might give a hint to how he might go about that should he choose to do so.

I don't envy him for this decision.

[MarquetteDano]

It's definitely more than anecdotal.

It's also temporary, and will be ending in a month.

At the time they set policy, politicians did not know when significant hiring would be able to resume, and they wanted to help people devastated by the pandemic pay their rent, buy food, pay for critical services, etc. So they made an educated guess and went with April 4 - July 25 as the period for the $600/week extra UI payments.

Had they only gone through, say, June 15 and it was worse than that, they would have had to call emergency sessions and pound something else through. Had they gone to, say, Sept. 15, and economies opened sooner, they would have gone too far.

It's easy to sit here at the end of June and talk about a decision they had to make 3 months ago, when the pandemic was so bad that even a president who had been in total denial was forced to acknowledge it. All in all, given what they knew, I think they did pretty decent job.

The $600 will end in a matter of weeks, and then we'll see how many jobs there are for those folks to go to. Hopefully lots of 'em.

No question it was rushed through.  But if it continues they will just need to max it out per economists.  A flat $600 makes no sense in a country where one state average earnings can be nearly double another's. 

[MU82]

More stimulus checks coming?

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243731547.html?ac_cid=DM223099&ac_bid=1233436261

On Monday, the president suggested he was open to another round of direct payments as the coronavirus crisis continues to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy. COVID-19 cases are on the rise across the nation, and more than 1, 500,000 Americans filed jobless claims in the last week, U.S. Department of Labor data show.

“We will be doing another stimulus package,” Trump told a Scripps TV reporter. “It will be very good. It’ll be very generous.”

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Socialist!

[Hards Alumni]

More stimulus checks coming?

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243731547.html?ac_cid=DM223099&ac_bid=1233436261

On Monday, the president suggested he was open to another round of direct payments as the coronavirus crisis continues to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy. COVID-19 cases are on the rise across the nation, and more than 1, 500,000 Americans filed jobless claims in the last week, U.S. Department of Labor data show.

“We will be doing another stimulus package,” Trump told a Scripps TV reporter. “It will be very good. It’ll be very generous.”

Would be smart to make this the beginning of the UBI that will be needed.  But I guess that would be too socialist to make work.

[MU82]

Baseball Hall of Fame is scheduled to re-open on Friday.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Lack of focus on control starting to have real economic impacts

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/503953-louisiana-pushes-back-next-reopening-phase-by-4-weeks-as-coronavirus

[Pakuni]

Dead people really made out on this whole stimulus thing.

WASHINGTON — The government’s fiscal watchdog said Thursday that $1.4 billion in stimulus payments were sent to roughly 1.1 million people who had already died, bypassing IRS procedures put in place seven years to ago to prevent such improper payments.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/06/25/irs-sent-14b-in-stimulus-payments-to-11m-dead-people-mostly-after-trump-called-snafus-a-tiny-problem/

[Hards Alumni]

Just saw this story on Fox Business.

Can you just imagine what our "businessman president" would be twatting if this happened on the watch of any other president, especially the Kenyan Muslim? Wow!

Out of curiosity, before you hit the "Post" button, do you reread what you have typed?  I know self quarantine yourself often from these threads, but yeesh man, what does your post attempt to accomplish?  Just trying to upset the Trumpers?  They've left mostly... soooooooooooo...

I dunno man.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Dead people really made out on this whole stimulus thing.

WASHINGTON — The government’s fiscal watchdog said Thursday that $1.4 billion in stimulus payments were sent to roughly 1.1 million people who had already died, bypassing IRS procedures put in place seven years to ago to prevent such improper payments.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/06/25/irs-sent-14b-in-stimulus-payments-to-11m-dead-people-mostly-after-trump-called-snafus-a-tiny-problem/

The Onion is on it!

Heaven Flush With Cash After Trump Administration Sends $1.4 Billion In Stimulus To Dead Americans
https://www.theonion.com/heaven-flush-with-cash-after-trump-administration-sends-1844165406?utm_source=TheOnion_Daily_RSS&utm_medium=email

[4everwarriors]

Haven't left. Just sew fookin' slammed in dis white hot economy. Tryin' ta take care of 12 months of patients in 9.5 months = workin' my ass off, hey?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Haven't left. Just sew fookin' slammed in dis white hot economy. Tryin' ta take care of 12 months of patients in 9.5 months = workin' my ass off, hey?

I bet.  Are you able to see the same number of patients or did you have to extend hours?

[4everwarriors]

Ours lengthened plus Saturdays