Vaccine/Antibody updates

[Big Papi]

I think once we have a vaccine that works even as good as the flu vaccine, the whole masking and social distancing thing will go away pretty quickly.  People will still get sick, but the numbers will fall off and serious spikes will be isolated and no longer all that newsworthy.

Treatments are just as important.  Treatments that decrease deaths and need for ventilators and need for hospitalization in combination with a vaccine will be the key.  Lots of good info on treatments starting to come out. 

[Skatastrophy]

I respect our caution and your perspective, but let’s say you have a vaccine by Christmas. You’re talking mid 2021, aka another full year of expecting/asking people to mask up and socially distance. That’s a pretty big ask/hope if that’s how it’s gonna be beaten.  Unless I am misunderstanding

I'm not expert, but I believe you're overestimating how quickly vaccines can be produced at scale and rolled out. Another year of social distancing is inevitable. The fastest multi-country new vaccine rollout in history took 2.5 years, and that was the new polio vaccine (so a well-known disease with a new variation of an existing vaccine).

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I'm not an anti-vaxxer by any means.  But if I think they've rushed something out, I'll wait 6 months before getting an injection.  I'll still be cautious about interactions with people in the meantime.  I'm not judging anybody that chooses to wait a bit if a vaccine is out late this year/early next.  That's a ridiculously fast timeline to be "fully vetted"

If I am recalling correctly, the Oxford vaccine had gone through trials previously and been deemed safe long-term, so sign me up for that one.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think once we have a vaccine that works even as good as the flu vaccine, the whole masking and social distancing thing will go away pretty quickly.  People will still get sick, but the numbers will fall off and serious spikes will be isolated and no longer all that newsworthy.

Once we have one as effective and it’s in enough arms...

That’s more why I said what I said. 

[mu_hilltopper]

Yeah, going "first" is uncomfortable.

You know what I think I'll do?  Ask my doctor.  That guy knows medical stuff. 

[jesmu84]

Yeah, going "first" is uncomfortable.

You know what I think I'll do?  Ask my doctor.  That guy knows medical stuff.

Not as much as the guy from my high school class who got a "C" in science freshman year and didn't even take the upper level high school science classes.

[tower912]

I'll go first.  Someone has to.

I will be in line 6 feet behind you.

[forgetful]

If/when a vaccine is available. I encourage anyone getting it to get it in the morning, after at least 1-week of regular sleep cycles.

[pbiflyer]

If/when a vaccine is available. I encourage anyone getting it to get it in the morning, after at least 1-week of regular sleep cycles.

Why?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Might we see a world where we take the first available vaccine to slow this down significantly, while waiting for a better vaccine to confer better immunity in the long term?

Definitely.

[GooooMarquette]

Why?

Studies in recent years have shown that antibody response tends to be greater in the morning than later in the day, and that healthy sleep patterns increase the effectiveness of vaccines. A couple of examples:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874947/

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2012/08/12458/sleep-affects-potency-vaccines

[🏀]

I’ve been flexing since March keeping that one good vein popping.

Let’s go science, save the world again.

[rocky_warrior]

I respect our caution and your perspective, but let’s say you have a vaccine by Christmas. You’re talking mid 2021, aka another full year of expecting/asking people to mask up and socially distance. That’s a pretty big ask/hope if that’s how it’s gonna be beaten.  Unless I am misunderstanding

You’ve been reasonable even when we disagree, so I’m not coming at you, but I’m just very curious on peoples perceptions of what they’d be “ok” with indefinitely if that’s the case.

Yeah, I guess I'm mostly expecting masking for another year regardless.  Now that I've acquired enough masks that fit comfortably, and for enough situations (cloth/disposable for around town, N95 for planes and airports) they don't bother me much at all. 

And I'm *very* cautious, but I think I've been a little more "risky" than some here.  I've been on 6 planes since May 1, another two coming up in the next couple weeks.  Even stayed in a hotel for a couple nights.  Masked up with N95 for the entire plane ride - and it was fine.

But beside that, as Skat said - new vaccines don't happen quickly (and I realize, there is a renewed focus here), but large trials usually go for 18 months (unless they stop early due to bad side effects).  But also, why I said  leave it up to my own research.  I'm not a doctor, but I have studied the FDA approval process for a few drugs (meetings where experts question the results of drug trials from the company that presented the results).  I'd be looking into that for a vaccine that gets approved.  If they skip the scrutiny - I'm waiting.  If they have it, I'll try to follow along and make my decision.

If I am recalling correctly, the Oxford vaccine had gone through trials previously and been deemed safe long-term, so sign me up for that one.

I've heard the Oxford mentioned a bunch, but haven't looked into it yet.  Thanks.  I'll do some due diligence. They UK has a different drug review process - and I'm not familiar with it. 

[pbiflyer]

Studies in recent years have shown that antibody response tends to be greater in the morning than later in the day, and that healthy sleep patterns increase the effectiveness of vaccines. A couple of examples:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874947/

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2012/08/12458/sleep-affects-potency-vaccines

Thanks.

[pbiflyer]

Rocky, where did you acquire the N95 masks? Online seems like a crap shoot.

[rocky_warrior]

If I am recalling correctly, the Oxford vaccine had gone through trials previously and been deemed safe long-term, so sign me up for that one.

I think this is AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca colab).  They've gone through a phase 2 trial (~1000 people) with good results.  The phase 3 is usually ~10,000 but they've got a bunch more signed up.  That's good.  Still, probably not available until next year though.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/study-provides-first-glimpse-of-efficacy-of-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

AstraZeneca and Oxford announced their partnership on the vaccine on April 30. A 10,000-patient study testing the vaccine is being run in the United Kingdom, and a separate 5,000-patient test began in Brazil in June. Soriot, the AstraZeneca CEO, said that phase 3 results could become available in September, October, or November.

[rocky_warrior]

Rocky, where did you acquire the N95 masks? Online seems like a crap shoot.

Hah, I bough a 3M ten pack years ago for home improvement (asthma/old houses/lead/asbestos concerns).  So I was lucky to have legit ones on hand (but only 3 left, and given the age, probably not good enough for hospital use).

I've since picked up some of the KN95 labeled cone style (Ace usually has these).  I doubt they're medically certified, but construction seems good enough to be effective.   

[forgetful]

Studies in recent years have shown that antibody response tends to be greater in the morning than later in the day, and that healthy sleep patterns increase the effectiveness of vaccines. A couple of examples:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874947/

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2012/08/12458/sleep-affects-potency-vaccines

Thanks for getting to this.

I'll note the reason I specifically recommend it for these vaccines is that they are unlikely to provide 100% protection, so anything one can do to boost effectiveness will be important.

The correlation between our daily rhythms and our immune response are strong, and there is ample evidence that this carries over into vaccine responses.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I think this is AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca colab).  They've gone through a phase 2 trial (~1000 people) with good results.  The phase 3 is usually ~10,000 but they've got a bunch more signed up.  That's good.  Still, probably not available until next year though.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/study-provides-first-glimpse-of-efficacy-of-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

Found the original story from the end of April, copied below. But maybe the one with AZ is different?

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead

"Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university’s Jenner Institute had a head start on a vaccine, having proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

"That has enabled them to leap ahead and schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show not only that it is safe, but also that it works.

"Scientists at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last month inoculated six rhesus macaque monkeys with single doses of the Oxford vaccine. The animals were then exposed to heavy quantities of the virus that is causing the pandemic — exposure that had consistently sickened other monkeys in the lab. But more than 28 days later all six were healthy, said Vincent Munster, the researcher who conducted the test."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html?campaign_id=168&emc=edit_NN_p_20200428&instance_id=17997&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=98421546&section=topNews&segment_id=26118&te=1&user_id=65badcb7c07b4cd4815fe5e758510381

[JWags85]

I'm not expert, but I believe you're overestimating how quickly vaccines can be produced at scale and rolled out. Another year of social distancing is inevitable. The fastest multi-country new vaccine rollout in history took 2.5 years, and that was the new polio vaccine (so a well-known disease with a new variation of an existing vaccine).

I’m not over estimating, much like Hards alluded to, I’m trying to figure out what a word with a vaccine, even early stages or initial roll outs would look like for people and their risk management.

Yeah, I guess I'm mostly expecting masking for another year regardless.  Now that I've acquired enough masks that fit comfortably, and for enough situations (cloth/disposable for around town, N95 for planes and airports) they don't bother me much at all. 

And I'm *very* cautious, but I think I've been a little more "risky" than some here.  I've been on 6 planes since May 1, another two coming up in the next couple weeks.  Even stayed in a hotel for a couple nights.  Masked up with N95 for the entire plane ride - and it was fine.

Appreciate it. I think the concerning thing here is the populous is sufficiently freaked out, right or wrong, that even with masking and social distancing, we have so much amended behavior and caution that economic ripples are still coming.

I’m not seeing discretionary spending returning for big ticket items any time soon. Coming to grips with my business likely being DOA and realizing that even if we had deaths flattening out to near nothing, until we get preventative options in place we’re gonna have general economic malaise for anything non-essential retail.

Your point about flying is interesting, cause based on a flight I took in June and second hand accounts from other people, I think with proper precautions flying is pretty manageable safe. But the sentiment has gotten so pervasive whether it be empirical, on travel websites, etc... that flying is reckless and selfish and irresponsible till we have a vaccine.  That’s gonna have a trickle effect to perceptions of business travel, especially international even if American bans are lifted, and that’s a whole nother set of concerns. The novelty of Zoom or BlueJeans has wore off.  I’m seeing gaps in the communication flows in the absence of trips that aren’t being picked in other “virtual” ways.

[Jockey]

I’m not over estimating, much like Hards alluded to, I’m trying to figure out what a word with a vaccine, even early stages or initial roll outs would look like for people and their risk management.

Any thoughts from you guys in the know how a vaccine developed in another country would affect us?

We are pretty much going it alone on a vaccine and I wonder where in the pecking order we would be if it is developed elsewhere. I’m guessing they would take care of themselves first, but would they share their findings with us? I’m guessing yes, but I don’t know how this works with proprietary products.

[forgetful]

Any thoughts from you guys in the know how a vaccine developed in another country would affect us?

We are pretty much going it alone on a vaccine and I wonder where in the pecking order we would be if it is developed elsewhere. I’m guessing they would take care of themselves first, but would they share their findings with us? I’m guessing yes, but I don’t know how this works with proprietary products.

Depends which one we are talking about. The Oxford one, we invested $1.2B in its development and have 300 million doses on priority delivery.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca/us-secures-300-million-doses-of-potential-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN22X0J9

If we are talking about the China vaccine candidate, I think we are SOL, we burned that bridge.

The big wrinkle in all of this could be that the bulk of production is in India. And if come fall, things are really bad there, they could sequester all doses until their population is treated first. That could get interesting.

[GooooMarquette]

Any thoughts from you guys in the know how a vaccine developed in another country would affect us?

We are pretty much going it alone on a vaccine and I wonder where in the pecking order we would be if it is developed elsewhere. I’m guessing they would take care of themselves first, but would they share their findings with us? I’m guessing yes, but I don’t know how this works with proprietary products.

From a strictly regulatory perspective...if there is a market for it (and there will be for this), they will apply for approval by the FDA. This happens quite regularly with drugs that are developed and first approved overseas. The FDA has its own independent approval process, but it would take seriously any prior approval by a reputable regulatory authority elsewhere. The would likely go through the EMA and the MRHA (the EU & UK counterparts of FDA).

For those concerned about the ‘quick’ approval, this might give an extra measure of confidence.

[Jockey]

Gracias, Goo & Forgetful.

Covered it from two different angles. Lots of knowledgeable Scoopers on this board.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Interesting note re the CanSino vaccine candidate:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/study-provides-first-glimpse-of-efficacy-of-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

"The Lancet also published results of another vaccine, from the Chinese biotech CanSino, that had been previously released. The Phase 2 results showed that, as was seen in the Phase 1 data, the vaccine induced neutralizing antibody responses — which could be vital to preventing the disease’s dangerous symptoms — in most subjects. But further study continues to show that this vaccine works better in some people than others. And among those it didn’t work as well in were people aged 55 and older, a key target for Covid-19 vaccination."