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Rebuild Assumptions

Started by TheyWereCones, March 03, 2020, 11:12:47 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

TheyWereCones

Why do we all have to assume that a new coach means a complete rebuild and several horrible years?  It might?  But it's certainly not guaranteed.  Look at Buzz, looks at Gard, look at Jordan (Butler)...it's not that it always works that way but it's not impossible either.  I still believe that MARQUETTE has a lot to offer and Wojo is one variable in that.  Regardless of coach, there are a lot of reasons to play here.

Who here is not FAR more impressed by Coach Duffy and the women's team this year than the men's?  Picked to finish 9th, gets the team to buy-in and scrap all season to a 2nd place finish.  Give me that team, that attitude, that heart.

Wojo never exceeds expectations and I can't stand listening to him anymore.  The timeout debacle at Butler was bad and today was bad and it's mostly been hard to cheer for.  I am super excited about Justin, Oso, & Dawson.  I would love to see them here with a new coach but I don't see all 4 of those things happening.
Those could have been guests at her wedding.

The Lens

The Teal Train has left the station and Lens is day drinking in the bar car.    ---- Dr. Blackheart

History is so valuable if you have the humility to learn from it.    ---- Shaka Smart

CountryRoads

Wojos comments in the recent press conferences are highly concerning. He kept saying "there was a LOT of work to do when I got here. There was a LOT of work to do."

It's like he felt he was taking over a program that was transitioning from DII. Marquette is a program that should be competing at the highest level and this whole "complete rebuild" is just a wojo narrative. 

rocky_warrior

Wojo walked into a dumpster fire of a roster.

If wojo gets canned, his replacements walks into a similar dumpster fire (all recruits de-commit, a couple transfer out).

3-5 years from then and Marquette might be successful again. 

MUfan12

Quote from: CountryRoads on March 03, 2020, 11:16:12 PM
Wojos comments in the recent press conferences are highly concerning. He kept saying "there was a LOT of work to do when I got here. There was a LOT of work to do."

It's like he felt he was taking over a program that was transitioning from DII. Marquette is a program that should be competing at the highest level and this whole "complete rebuild" is just a wojo narrative.

He got to build a roster with almost all of his guys in year two. That should, if done correctly, accelerate a rebuild.

WhiteTrash

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 11:18:37 PM
Wojo walked into a dumpster fire of a roster.

If wojo gets canned, his replacements walks into a similar dumpster fire (all recruits de-commit, a couple transfer out).

3-5 years from then and Marquette might be successful again.
What MU coach in the past 30 years took 5 years to build a competitive team?

rocky_warrior

Quote from: WhiteTrash on March 03, 2020, 11:26:24 PM
What MU coach in the past 30 years took 5 years to build a competitive team?

You probably can't see it, but that's called exaggeration.  Wojo has a very competitive team this year!  An NCAA team even.

Deano took 5 years to kill a competitive team.  That's the beginning and end of the list you asked for.

PointWarrior


Have lost to 9/10 teams that were quality opponents and just lost to depaul minus Paul reed - keep telling yourself the they are competitive.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
You probably can't see it, but that's called exaggeration.  Wojo has a very competitive team this year!  An NCAA team even.

Deano took 5 years to kill a competitive team.  That's the beginning and end of the list you asked for.

Silent Verbal

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
You probably can't see it, but that's called exaggeration.  Wojo has a very competitive team this year!  An NCAA team even.

Deano took 5 years to kill a competitive team.  That's the beginning and end of the list you asked for.

In Billy Madison, this is what's known as "loser denial".

NorthernDancerColt

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 11:18:37 PM
Wojo walked into a dumpster fire of a roster.

If wojo gets canned, his replacements walks into a similar dumpster fire (all recruits de-commit, a couple transfer out).

3-5 years from then and Marquette might be successful again.

More like 4-6 years and "slight chance" rather than "might" be successful. This is the end of a proud program. Short of hiring Stan, it's all over.  You don't throw a class like this to the wind. The loss of recruiting momentum is just too great. Stan would likely salvage all these recruits, and I think he deserves a chance.
Zenyatta has a lot....a lot... of ground to make up. She gets there from here she'd be a super horse......what's this.....Zenyatta hooked to the grandstand side....Zenyatta flying on the outside....this....is...un-belieeeeeevable!...looked impossible at the top of the stretch...

WhiteTrash

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
You probably can't see it, but that's called exaggeration.  Wojo has a very competitive team this year!  An NCAA team even.

Deano took 5 years to kill a competitive team.  That's the beginning and end of the list you asked for.
Sorry, my bad. This implosion of MU must be affecting my sense of sarcasm and exaggeration.

The rebuild with a new coach will not be fun but IMO a necessary evil. And no reason to believe we can't be competitive with in 2-3 years.

1SE

Quote from: NorthernDancerColt on March 03, 2020, 11:42:56 PM
More like 4-6 years and "slight chance" rather than "might" be successful. This is the end of a proud program. Short of hiring Stan, it's all over.  You don't throw a class like this to the wind. The loss of recruiting momentum is just too great. Stan would likely salvage all these recruits, and I think he deserves a chance.

I know it won't happen, and I'm not sure he's the answer anyway, but if we lose Saturday and I ran the world, Stan would he HC by 7:45 pm. See what he can do in two(+) games that matter and then let him compete for the job after the end of the season.
Real Warriors Demand Excellence

MUfan12

Quote from: NorthernDancerColt on March 03, 2020, 11:42:56 PMYou don't throw a class like this to the wind. The loss of recruiting momentum is just too great.

Well, based on the past one recruit will get the ball all the time (DG), one will be a contributor in time, and two will transfer.

Silent Verbal

Quote from: 1SE on March 03, 2020, 11:53:03 PM
I know it won't happen, and I'm not sure he's the answer anyway, but if we lose Saturday and I ran the world, Stan would he HC by 7:45 pm. See what he can do in two(+) games that matter and then let him compete for the job after the end of the season.

Here's a wild thought:  I don't trust the administration to make a smart hire.  So, if Wojo leaves after the season, does MU do the dumb thing and...retain Stan as HC to try and keep the recruiting class?  I have no idea if Stan would be a good coach.  I'm certainly not one of those advocating for his hire.  But I think that scenario is a real possibility.

NorthernDancerColt

Quote from: Silent Verbal on March 04, 2020, 12:03:37 AM
Here's a wild thought:  I don't trust the administration to make a smart hire.  So, if Wojo leaves after the season, does MU do the dumb thing and...retain Stan as HC to try and keep the recruiting class?  I have no idea if Stan would be a good coach.  I'm certainly not one of those advocating for his hire.  But I think that scenario is a real possibility.

So you have no idea if he'd be a good coach, but it's de facto "dumb" to hire a guy who we KNOW will at worst mean not setting the program back another 6-8 years?!
Zenyatta has a lot....a lot... of ground to make up. She gets there from here she'd be a super horse......what's this.....Zenyatta hooked to the grandstand side....Zenyatta flying on the outside....this....is...un-belieeeeeevable!...looked impossible at the top of the stretch...

TAMU, Knower of Ball

Quote from: TheyWereCones on March 03, 2020, 11:12:47 PM
Why do we all have to assume that a new coach means a complete rebuild and several horrible years?  It might?  But it's certainly not guaranteed.  Look at Buzz, looks at Gard, look at Jordan (Butler)...it's not that it always works that way but it's not impossible either.  I still believe that MARQUETTE has a lot to offer and Wojo is one variable in that.  Regardless of coach, there are a lot of reasons to play here.

Every one of the examples you give here except Buzz (assuming you are talking about his VT years) walked into a much better situation than what the next coach would be walking into next season.

The other more pertinent reason is that rebuilds take time. Sure there are examples of coaches "rebuilding" in 2 years or less but the long term data on them is terrible. Most either get poached by a bigger school or are unable to maintain their initial success and eventually get fired. The most successful rebuilds long term take 4-6 years before they have a team going to the NCAA tournament multiple years in a row.
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


Silent Verbal

Quote from: NorthernDancerColt on March 04, 2020, 12:10:16 AM
So you have no idea if he'd be a good coach, but it's de facto "dumb" to hire a guy who we KNOW will at worst mean not setting the program back another 6-8 years?!

I'm saying it would be a "dumb" move to hire a coach to keep one recruiting class.  But if Stan ends up doing well, it may not be so dumb after all.  My main point was that I could see this admin making a move like that. 

79Warrior

Quote from: TAMU Garcia on March 04, 2020, 12:11:01 AM
Every one of the examples you give here except Buzz (assuming you are talking about his VT years) walked into a much better situation than what the next coach would be walking into next season.

The other more pertinent reason is that rebuilds take time. Sure there are examples of coaches "rebuilding" in 2 years or less but the long term data on them is terrible. Most either get poached by a bigger school or are unable to maintain their initial success and eventually get fired. The most successful rebuilds long term take 4-6 years before they have a team going to the NCAA tournament multiple years in a row.

We are in year six, as you know. Maybe we get one this year, we shall see. Mick Cronin has UCLA playing pretty good ball in year 1.

Mike Deane's Seat Belt

Interim head coach Stan.   

#donedeal

WhiteTrash

Quote from: TAMU Garcia on March 04, 2020, 12:11:01 AM
Every one of the examples you give here except Buzz (assuming you are talking about his VT years) walked into a much better situation than what the next coach would be walking into next season.
I guess that's all we need to know about Wojo's stewardship of our program. Very sad. 

Silent Verbal

Quote from: Mike Deane's Seat Belt on March 04, 2020, 12:17:10 AM
Interim head coach Stan.   

#donedeal

Honestly, it would be pretty cool if they tried it.  Absolutely nothing to lose at this point, and Markus is Stan's player.  But there's no way Scholl and Lovell have the balls to make a move like that.

NorthernDancerColt

Stan is literally crying out to be a head coach. He is passionate, busts his a$$, articulate, recruits lights-out, is well-liked and trusted by the players and recruits, and looks extremely in command of the time-out huddles. Yet it's dumb to take a chance on him and likely retain a "WOW" factor recruiting class and "smart" to blow everything to pieces on the chance we find a hidden gem somewhere?! Silent Verbal, I just saw your explanation and I get it, I just think based on pure probabilities, WarriorNation would be almost guaranteed sitting on Angst overload in 2022-23 with a blow-up. That level of fan and booster anxiety can take decades to recover from.
Zenyatta has a lot....a lot... of ground to make up. She gets there from here she'd be a super horse......what's this.....Zenyatta hooked to the grandstand side....Zenyatta flying on the outside....this....is...un-belieeeeeevable!...looked impossible at the top of the stretch...

TAMU, Knower of Ball

Quote from: WhiteTrash on March 04, 2020, 12:18:30 AM
I guess that's all we need to know about Wojo's stewardship of our program. Very sad.

With the recruiting class, I think we'd be an NIT team. If he lands Mane or a quality grad transfer, I see a bubble team that either just makes it in or misses. With both I see a team that makes it into the postseason. It's not an awful place to be in an rebuilding year.

Without the recruiting class and little to no time to replenish it....that's a dumpster fire
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


NorthernDancerColt

People are right here. I don't think Scholl and Lovell will fire Wojo. What really sucks is the way the whole Buzz thing went down and how the PR thing  hamstrings us now. You can't "fire" a guy like Wojo who has painstakingly built a program which has good kids who go to class and do things the right way. And yet you can't let him just leave after the end of the season to save face either. We will look to the rest of the college hoops world like we are being "VA Teched" and spurned once again by our coach for a lesser (or equal) program...albeit it will be much less embarrassing as presumably Wojo is not about to go on an elite8 run, and few people will even notice the move. Yet, umm, duh, maybe it will be even MORE embarrassing because a coach who has achieved little here will be making a lateral move to a Wake Forest or something similar. We are in a bad spot going forward.
Zenyatta has a lot....a lot... of ground to make up. She gets there from here she'd be a super horse......what's this.....Zenyatta hooked to the grandstand side....Zenyatta flying on the outside....this....is...un-belieeeeeevable!...looked impossible at the top of the stretch...

WhiteTrash

Quote from: TAMU Garcia on March 04, 2020, 12:27:15 AM
With the recruiting class, I think we'd be an NIT team. If he lands Mane or a quality grad transfer, I see a bubble team that either just makes it in or misses. With both I see a team that makes it into the postseason. It's not an awful place to be in an rebuilding year.

Without the recruiting class and little to no time to replenish it....that's a dumpster fire
I admire your optimism and faith in Wojo's coaching ability. I think we take a step back next  year in the Big East. MH, SA & JJ are very good players that I think freshmen will be hard pressed to even be as good as and most likely will not. If we end up 8-10 this year, next year looks like 4-14. I predict that MU will be picked 8th in the BE next season. IMO, .500 would be a good year for Wojo and the team.

Should Wojo find another "opportunity" after this season, I think MU can be competitive in 2 or 3 years.