[Cracked Sidewalks] The National Player of the Year Metric

[brewcity77]

For the past seven years, you really only needed to know two things: who had the highest PORPAGATU! and did they play for a single-digit seed. If the answer to the first is no, then go to the second player and give them the award. If you read nothing more about the Markus Howard NPOY campaign, this is the stone cold lock that Howard deserves the award (and that people claiming Myles Powell and Obi Toppin deserve consideration are, at best, drunk and stupid).

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/the-national-player-of-year-metric.html

[Skatastrophy]

Nerd.

[GooooMarquette]

He got this.

[MomofMUltiples]

Brew, I love your analysis.

But I gotta remind you that the word is complementary.

[mileskishnish72]

Brew, do you work?

[ProjoSlim]

Thanks Brew. Outstanding stuff.

What other measurable factors seem to be relevant in NPOY selection that M2N doesn’t fair as well?

[Shooter McGavin]

Good stuff.  Markus is really incredible.   Hope the team finishes strong and he gets all the accolades at the end of the year he deserves.

[skianth16]

It's going to be hard to discount Markus' offense, but I can see voters swooning over Garza this year. He's averaging a double-double in a very impressive Big Ten this year. There's an argument to be made that it's harder to do what he's doing given how good the Big Ten is. And yes, I know there are probably stats and spreadsheets that can help determine whether that's a fair point or not, but how many guys who vote on the award know or care about that kind of detail?

From the article, saying there's only a case for 3 guys this year seems like a stretch. Just because that has been a good predictor for the last several years, doesn't mean voters were necessarily referencing the stat or even aware of it. And you've also got to think about how overall team performance factors in. If Iowa and MU stumble down the stretch while KU makes a strong run, I'm sure Dotson's name starts to move up the list.

I think Markus has a very strong case, and if he keeps up his BEast numbers, MU should continue to move up the rankings, which will also help elevate Markus in the national eye. It's going to be a lot of fun to finally see him getting some of the recognition he's deserved.

[brewcity77]

Thanks Brew. Outstanding stuff.

What other measurable factors seem to be relevant in NPOY selection that M2N doesn’t fair as well?

So far, team success. If you put Markus with this production on Baylor, Kansas, Duke, or Louisville the engraver would already have finished the trophy and gone on vacation. It's also the one thing that hamstrung Trae Young. He was the runaway NPOY favorite in January, but when Oklahoma fell apart, it allowed Brunson to take the award.

Brew, I love your analysis.

But I gotta remind you that the word is complementary.

Thanks

Been fixing some grammatical errors today, and that's one that's now fixed.

Brew, do you work?

This has been a couple weeks in the making, but I usually get most of my time off during basketball season.

[DoctorV]

Myles 1/10, 0/7 from 3 tonight. Let’s see how he “closes”

[guzica]

Myles   2/12   3:50 to go   CU  73-69   

[JWags85]

Myles   2/12   3:50 to go   CU  73-69   

Last shot was an absolute brick from the top of the key down 3. Barely hit rim

[tower912]

I am sure that this will enhance Powell's chances.

[JWags85]

I am sure that this will enhance Powell's chances.

“Seton Hall nearly winning while Powell was terrible shooting, and with more TOs than assists and rebounds combined, shows what a winner and leader he is. Incredibly clutch”

[tower912]

And his terrible body language and effort was his way of getting his teammates involved.   What a leader.

[skianth16]

“Seton Hall nearly winning while Powell was terrible shooting, and with more TOs than assists and rebounds combined, shows what a winner and leader he is. Incredibly clutch”

Beautifully said. Few things bring me as much joy as watching Powell struggle this year.

[JWags85]

And his terrible body language and effort was his way of getting his teammates involved.   What a leader.

Raf called out repeatedly in the last minutes that he wasn’t moving and needed to do more without the ball.

Sandro’s last moving screen. Powell started to ball fake, whistle blew and a Creighton player jumped, Powell made sure to turn and put his shoulder into the dude mid air. But to fair, I’d expect that out of almost anyone on that team

[brewcity77]

Going to share a sliver of content from The Athletic today:

Marquette (17-7, 7-5; NET: 20, SOS: 8):
Fear not, Marquette fans: Your guys will be joining the Big East locks soon enough. The quantity/quality matrix of the wins here isn’t quite on a Seton Hall/Butler/Creighton/Nova level, and there is one fewer of them, not to mention a home loss to Providence. But these are academic distinctions at this point. Rather than worrying about this, Marquette fans should read (the excellently named) Cracked Sidewalks on the topic of Markus Howard, volume, efficiency and why the intersection of the two is such a good barometer for who really deserves to be the player of the year.

#Markus4NPOY spreads...

[Shooter McGavin]

Going to share a sliver of content from The Athletic today:

Marquette (17-7, 7-5; NET: 20, SOS: 8):
Fear not, Marquette fans: Your guys will be joining the Big East locks soon enough. The quantity/quality matrix of the wins here isn’t quite on a Seton Hall/Butler/Creighton/Nova level, and there is one fewer of them, not to mention a home loss to Providence. But these are academic distinctions at this point. Rather than worrying about this, Marquette fans should read (the excellently named) Cracked Sidewalks on the topic of Markus Howard, volume, efficiency and why the intersection of the two is such a good barometer for who really deserves to be the player of the year.

#Markus4NPOY spreads...

Saw that as well. Pretty cool.  Nice work.

[UWW2MU]

Going to share a sliver of content from The Athletic today:

#Markus4NPOY spreads...

Saw this and did a double take.  I forgot what site I was on for a second.   That' s a pretty awesome name drop!  Congrats Brew!

[mileskishnish72]

This has been a couple weeks in the making

Well, thanks for the effort, Brew, it's nice read.

[MU82]

how many guys who vote on the award know or care about that kind of detail?

This is my main concern. I wonder how many voters have heard of, or even care to hear of, PORPAGATU!

Unfortunately, as we sit here today, the national buzz is on several players not named Markus Howard.

Bilas, who as we all know likes Marquette because his Dookie buddy is our coach, calls Toppin the best player in the country every single time he mentions Toppin. Which is about 10x every night.

Any time just about anybody mentions Powell, they call him the likely BEPOY and one of the NPOY leaders. Same for Garza in Big 14 country.

I haven't heard any national media figure advocate for Markus as strongly as several talking heads do for Powell.

Hopefully, while playing within a team structure, Markus goes off a few times between now and the end of the BET. Outplaying and beating Powell head-to-head is probably the single best thing he can do for his candidacy. He has a chance to do it at home on 2/29, and then hopefully he will best Powell again in the BET title game. Do that, keep the national scoring leadership, and lead us to a BET title and high seed ... then I will have a much better feeling about his NPOY chances.

Today, even though PORPAGATU! might say he should win, I don't feel he is really that close to voters saying he should win.

We Are Marquette!

[brewcity77]

Today, even though PORPAGATU! might say he should win, I don't feel he is really that close to voters saying he should win.

We Are Marquette!

Listening to Gary Parrish say it repeatedly the past few days, listening to Rob Dauster (who is a voter) say that Markus Howard is his pick, I think the narrative is moving in Howard's direction. Ultimately, I think team success will be the ultimate decider. If Howard keeps up his play and Marquette can get a 3/4 seed, I think he will win. 5 or 6 seed, maybe, but probably only if he has a couple 40-50 point nights. 7 or lower, I don't think he gets it.

[lawdog77]

Isn't Porpagatu the ancient mayan fertility god? But back on the subject, team success seems to be the clear indicator on this. Markus has had, in my belief, some sub Markus games lately, but since the team won 6 of 7, his campaign gained a lot of steam. Go on aother 3 game win streak, and I think he moves to the head of the pacdk.

[MU82]

Listening to Gary Parrish say it repeatedly the past few days, listening to Rob Dauster (who is a voter) say that Markus Howard is his pick, I think the narrative is moving in Howard's direction. Ultimately, I think team success will be the ultimate decider. If Howard keeps up his play and Marquette can get a 3/4 seed, I think he will win. 5 or 6 seed, maybe, but probably only if he has a couple 40-50 point nights. 7 or lower, I don't think he gets it.

I am glad to hear that, brewski. Keep fightin' the fight, and congrats on the mention in The Athletic.