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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 7676 times)

rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #150 on: February 14, 2020, 05:54:40 PM »
how dare anyone criticize and/ or doubt China...just ask the NBA and the tiananmen square survivors 
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mu03eng

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #151 on: February 14, 2020, 06:24:20 PM »
China is too large and powerful to succumb to external pressure.  The country is like an adult bookstore or a crack dealer... no matter how unethical or how despised they may be, they have something that people want (and if someone isn't willing to overlook their misdeeds, someone else will).

Change can only come from within, and even then, it must come from the masses, not simply the majority.  IMO, it would take something cataclysmic (which it is not looking like COVID-19 rises to this level) to change the paradigm in the People's Republic... decades of propaganda and censorship have ingrained their brand of authoritarianism so deeply within their culture that the very though of the Chinese rising up en masse against their gov't would be tantamount to Americans suddenly deciding that we're all going to completely abandon the idea of diamond engagement rings.

Taking a page while it's still fresh... watch American Factory on Netflix; the Chinese don't envy the lifestyle and leisure time that Americans enjoy, they despise it.  Even when given the freedom to explore, they still blindly adhere to their hierarchy.

I've seen American Factory and I've seen Chinese culture first hand. I agree that change won't come from within unless  it is significantly impacted by external forces. As manufacturing automates (in fact manufacturing will move to an as a service model within the next 15 years) it will move closer to the consumer and scale requirements that China relies on will decrease giving China less competitive edge.

Again I don't think a major paradigm is going to happen but it's gone to a non-zero possibility in the last 3 years
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TallTitan34

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #152 on: February 18, 2020, 12:44:10 AM »
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead
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forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #153 on: February 18, 2020, 06:28:10 AM »
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead

Yes, the flu is a problem. The big concern is that the corona virus, unless contained, will become seasonal within the global population. If that happens estimates for how a corona virus season may look, would be something like.

5,000,000 hospitalized
300,000 dead.

The hospitalizations alone would cripple our medical system, possibly leading to even more deaths.

TallTitan34

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #154 on: February 18, 2020, 07:29:24 AM »
Yes, the flu is a problem. The big concern is that the corona virus, unless contained, will become seasonal within the global population. If that happens estimates for how a corona virus season may look, would be something like.

5,000,000 hospitalized
300,000 dead.

The hospitalizations alone would cripple our medical system, possibly leading to even more deaths.

Haven’t they already said they expect it to become seasonal?

Still don’t think the numbers will be that high. Somewhere I saw it mentioned that there is likely a large number of people who have it but show such mild symptoms they don’t even it checked. While that would likely increase the number of people getting infected, it would also drop that fatality and hospitalize rate a great deal.
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forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #155 on: February 18, 2020, 08:16:51 AM »
Haven’t they already said they expect it to become seasonal?

Still don’t think the numbers will be that high. Somewhere I saw it mentioned that there is likely a large number of people who have it but show such mild symptoms they don’t even it checked. While that would likely increase the number of people getting infected, it would also drop that fatality and hospitalize rate a great deal.

The probability of it becoming seasonal is reasonably high. Some people I know that run statistical models of epidemiology put the probability reasonably high, but it is not a forgone conclusion. The next 30 days are critical to see if it can be contained. A lot of mistakes being made though, which is not helping.

The numbers I listed are on the lower/middle end of the range that some colleague of mine have determined using statistics from CDC databases.

Hards_Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #156 on: February 18, 2020, 09:36:56 AM »
Haven’t they already said they expect it to become seasonal?

Still don’t think the numbers will be that high. Somewhere I saw it mentioned that there is likely a large number of people who have it but show such mild symptoms they don’t even it checked. While that would likely increase the number of people getting infected, it would also drop that fatality and hospitalize rate a great deal.

Except 20% require hospitalization.

Sorry bud, you're wrong if you think this is the flu.

Hards_Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #157 on: February 18, 2020, 09:38:52 AM »
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead

China sure isn't treating it like the flu.  So I wouldn't trust their numbers.

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #158 on: February 18, 2020, 10:37:53 AM »
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead

As Hards said, Covid-19 is not the flu... it is a respiratory disease with flu-like symptoms.  Comparing Covid-19 stats to flu stats is a false comparison that adds little in the way of perspective, especially since you're ignoring the time factor involved, i.e. you're comparing annual stats on flu to about a month's worth of stats on Covid-19... how the hell is anyone supposed to draw a conclusion on that?

In other words, whatever the agenda is in comparing seasonal influenza stats to Covid-19 stats, the comparison itself is tantamount to comparing the number of cardiac deaths to the number of AIDS deaths in the early 80's.  1981 Morty would probably say something along the lines of: "Oh geez, Rick, that AIDS thing sure isn't killing as many people as heart attacks are and barely anyone here has it... maybe we should just calm down and not do anything about it."
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

TallTitan34

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #159 on: February 18, 2020, 10:51:00 AM »
Except 20% require hospitalization.

Sorry bud, you're wrong if you think this is the flu.

20% of known cases.  Maybe I should say reported cases since China isn't trustworthy.

Like I said, there are likely many others who have it and just experienced mild symptoms and didn't even get checked. 
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Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #160 on: February 18, 2020, 11:07:05 AM »
20% of known cases.  Maybe I should say reported cases since China isn't trustworthy.

Like I said, there are likely many others who have it and just experienced mild symptoms and didn't even get checked.

What point are you trying to make? 

Jockey

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #161 on: February 18, 2020, 11:36:31 AM »
Did the sky fall yet?

Hards_Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #162 on: February 18, 2020, 01:51:16 PM »
Did the sky fall yet?

Check on Japan in a month.

tower912

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #163 on: February 18, 2020, 01:58:25 PM »
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #164 on: February 18, 2020, 02:01:42 PM »
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?

I'd imagine they'd need to chose an area more than a city in that case. Even then it'd be tough.
“More the knowledge, lesser the ego. Lesser the knowledge, more the ego.” Albert Einstein a note for some posters

Hards_Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #165 on: February 18, 2020, 03:44:09 PM »
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?

USA always has the ability to field the Olympics on short notice.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #166 on: February 18, 2020, 04:14:15 PM »
Check on Japan in a month.

Next month my company was supposed to have a quality audit from our Japanese headquarters.  They just postponed to maybe April. maybe May....

Cheeks

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #167 on: February 18, 2020, 04:16:46 PM »
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?

Los Angeles
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Retire0

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #168 on: February 18, 2020, 05:05:59 PM »
Los Angeles

Olympics Golf at Riv would be fantastic.
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

tower912

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #169 on: February 18, 2020, 05:07:16 PM »
Olympics Golf at Riv would be fantastic.
Would take Tiger out of medal contention.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #170 on: February 18, 2020, 11:42:57 PM »
Los Angeles

This.  Little known secret: LA is always on Ready-5 every four years leading up to the Olympics. 
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Coleman

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #171 on: February 19, 2020, 10:02:25 AM »
As Hards said, Covid-19 is not the flu... it is a respiratory disease with flu-like symptoms.  Comparing Covid-19 stats to flu stats is a false comparison that adds little in the way of perspective, especially since you're ignoring the time factor involved, i.e. you're comparing annual stats on flu to about a month's worth of stats on Covid-19... how the hell is anyone supposed to draw a conclusion on that?

In other words, whatever the agenda is in comparing seasonal influenza stats to Covid-19 stats, the comparison itself is tantamount to comparing the number of cardiac deaths to the number of AIDS deaths in the early 80's.  1981 Morty would probably say something along the lines of: "Oh geez, Rick, that AIDS thing sure isn't killing as many people as heart attacks are and barely anyone here has it... maybe we should just calm down and not do anything about it."

This is a really good analysis, and I enjoy your use of Rick and Morty.

I'm also sick of seeing the flu comparison as a way to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. There is still so much we don't know about COVID-19, including transmission methods, and reliable numbers on total infected and death rate. Even if it is just another "flu," that would be a pretty significant impact on global health.

StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #172 on: February 19, 2020, 10:19:37 AM »
I'm also sick of seeing the flu comparison as a way to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. There is still so much we don't know about COVID-19, including transmission methods, and reliable numbers on total infected and death rate. Even if it is just another "flu," that would be a pretty significant impact on global health.

I've used the flu comparison, but I don't really feel like I use it to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. I've heard people (including my children) who were saying they were afraid to go outside or to go to work or public places. This is a very serious situation, but that is absolutely silly. The reference to the flu is merely a reminder that there really is no statistically significant risk of getting sick from this virus. If people aren't afraid to go to work every single day of winter, they shouldn't be afraid to to go to work because of this virus. It doesn't mean that it's not a big deal; it is.
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Coleman

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #173 on: February 19, 2020, 10:30:54 AM »
I've used the flu comparison, but I don't really feel like I use it to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. I've heard people (including my children) who were saying they were afraid to go outside or to go to work or public places. This is a very serious situation, but that is absolutely silly. The reference to the flu is merely a reminder that there really is no statistically significant risk of getting sick from this virus. If people aren't afraid to go to work every single day of winter, they shouldn't be afraid to to go to work because of this virus. It doesn't mean that it's not a big deal; it is.

That's fair, if you live in the US.

I don't think its silly to be afraid to go to work right now if you live in Wuhan.

StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #174 on: February 19, 2020, 10:40:04 AM »
That's fair, if you live in the US.

I don't think its silly to be afraid to go to work right now if you live in Wuhan.

I completely agree. This is a very scary virus. I'm not minimizing that at all. When I compare it to the flu, I do not intend at all to suggest that this thing isn't extraordinarily serious where there are outbreaks. Only that people in the US should not be overly concerned about catching it themselves. Concerned about the people  in China? Absolutely. Concerned about impact on world economy? Yep. Concerned about actually acquiring it in the US? Probably not...especially if you don't live in fear of catching the flu.
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.