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Author Topic: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20  (Read 280150 times)

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #600 on: January 29, 2020, 11:07:38 AM »
Dusty Baker has made a career of stepping into difficult situations, getting a team to believe in themselves and each other, and having good seasons. He's very good at infusing an "us against the world" mentality. Ballplayers historically have liked playing for him, at least at first. He excels at ego management, which is the most difficult part of being a big-league manager.

And he wins - usually very quickly - every place he's been, no matter how bad the team had been previously.

1992 SF 72-90
1993 SF 103-59 (Baker's first year)

2002 Cubs 67-95
2003 Cubs 88-74 (Baker's first year)

2007 Cin 72-90
2008 Cin 74-88 (Baker's first year)
2009 Cin 78-84
2010 Cin 91-71

2015 Wash 83-79
2016 Wash 95-67 (Baker's first year)

Average improvement in his first season: +16.5 games. He also took each franchise to the postseason at least once.

He usually has flamed out after a couple/few years, but regardless of what one feels about his strategic decisions, it's hard to look at the body of evidence above and deny that he has been a turnaround specialist.

Baker's use of starting pitchers also changed as the years went on and it became more the norm to coddle them. By the time he got to Washington, he didn't "abuse" Scherzer, Strasberg, Gonzalez, etc. Maybe that was upper management telling him what to do; if so, he obeyed orders - and won 2 division titles.

Houston isn't really a turnaround situation, it's a "crisis management" situation, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does well. Given that they cheated their way to 107 wins last season, I'm guessing that no matter how well he does, his streak of improving upon a team's prior-season record will end.

Disclosure: I know and like Dusty Baker.

That disclosure doesn't change the facts: Every single time he has been hired, the team has won more games the following season - in 3 of the 4 cases, significantly more games.

I wouldn't hire him to bring along a young team involved in a "process" situation, like the Astros were 5+ years ago. But if I had a veteran team that needed a jolt, I would not hesitate to hire him as manager.

You get out of here with your statistically based evidence.  That stuff doesn't matter.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #601 on: January 29, 2020, 11:10:47 AM »
Bryant loses his grievance.  I still have a hard time believing it took this long to come to a decision.

We'll see if the trade discussions pick up now that we know he has two years of control left.   With Ozuna signing in Atlanta that removes one suitor that made a lot of sense.  San Diego is seemingly focused on Betts and the Dodgers seemed more interested in Lindor and are unlikely to move any top prospects.  The market just doesn't seem to be there so I Hope KB is in the Cubs lineup opening day. 

Better to reassess this summer than to sell low.

Yeah, why this took until now is baffling.  It really seems that this was the 99% outcome the whole time.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the Cubs.  I cant help but feel that if this decision came in December, it could have really changed the offseason.

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #602 on: January 29, 2020, 11:23:32 AM »
Dusty is the perfectly fine coach and a great hire for the situation.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #603 on: January 29, 2020, 11:30:42 AM »
So, the Cards were heavily rumored to be interested in Arenado before Bridich said he wouldn't be traded. 

In a it'll never happen scenario, what about Bryant to the Cards for group built around Liberatore and Gorman?  Who says no?

My guess is the Cards but I'm not sure.

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #604 on: January 29, 2020, 11:39:40 AM »
Bye Kris.

Nightengale is reporting that the Cubs “lied to him.” Bryant “feels unwanted, underappreciated, and believes the organization openly lied during the arbitration hearing.”

MU82

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #605 on: January 29, 2020, 11:53:34 AM »
I think this is all kind of the key to why Dusty is probably going to get this job.  82's feelings toward Dusty seem pretty universal in the industry (PS - its cool that you know him personally).  Even the people who don't think he's a good modern manager don't dislike him. 

Regardless of how much Jim Crane know about the cheating scandal, he just wants all of this to go away.  Their front office has been in the news for reprehensible behavior over the last year even before the cheating scandal, and Dusty is one of the few guys who is pretty much beyond reproach.  If the Astros win 95 games this year, people won't be happy, but its also going to be a lot harder to accuse them of still cheating with Dusty on the bench.  I think this is an image hire as much as a baseball one, and that's probably a good thing for the game and for the Astros in the long view.

Thanks.

For the record, Dusty and I didn't hang out together. I knew him professionally, had many great conversations with him, both on and off the record, and in both group and 1-on-1 situations. He had a unique breadth of life experiences -- grew up a black man during extremely volatile time for race relations in America, was in the Marine Corps reserves, husband and father, All-Star ballplayer, manager, broadcaster -- that has helped him relate to people from all walks of life.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #606 on: January 29, 2020, 01:24:43 PM »
Bye Kris.

Nightengale is reporting that the Cubs “lied to him.” Bryant “feels unwanted, underappreciated, and believes the organization openly lied during the arbitration hearing.”

I'd recommend when you see a report from Nightengale that you believe the opposite to be true. 

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #607 on: January 29, 2020, 01:27:12 PM »
I'd recommend when you see a report from Nightengale that you believe the opposite to be true. 

Yep

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4559024002
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #608 on: January 29, 2020, 01:28:43 PM »
Yeah, why this took until now is baffling.  It really seems that this was the 99% outcome the whole time.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the Cubs.  I cant help but feel that if this decision came in December, it could have really changed the offseason.

The timing has had a massive impact on the offseason.  I understand it's a crucial ruling for the sport but the grievance was filed a long time ago. 

So, the Cards were heavily rumored to be interested in Arenado before Bridich said he wouldn't be traded. 

In a it'll never happen scenario, what about Bryant to the Cards for group built around Liberatore and Gorman?  Who says no?

My guess is the Cards but I'm not sure.

I believe Arenado has full no-trade rights so he can dictate where he wants to end up to an extent.  Passan said he would love to come to the Cubs but I just don't see them being able to 1) Agree to a trade for Arenado while also sending a contract to Colorado to lessen the impact of Arenado's contract and 2) getting an acceptable return for Bryant. 

wadesworld

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #609 on: January 29, 2020, 01:30:20 PM »
I'd recommend when you see a report from Nightengale that you believe the opposite to be true.

Yeah I’m guessing through multiple years of rumors that KB was unhappy with how the Cubs dealt with his service time he suddenly had a come to Jesus moment while filing a grievance and they all just sat around and sang Kumbaya together. He probably signed a lifetime contract extension with the Cubs for $1M/year that will be announced shortly.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #610 on: January 29, 2020, 01:33:49 PM »
The timing has had a massive impact on the offseason.  I understand it's a crucial ruling for the sport but the grievance was filed a long time ago. 

I believe Arenado has full no-trade rights so he can dictate where he wants to end up to an extent.  Passan said he would love to come to the Cubs but I just don't see them being able to 1) Agree to a trade for Arenado while also sending a contract to Colorado to lessen the impact of Arenado's contract and 2) getting an acceptable return for Bryant.

Are the Cubs pursuing Arenado?  That'd be interesting.  You are right on about his no trade, but it seems like he would be happy to get out of Colorado based on recent comments.  He is a tricky trade candidate, as he has an opt out in 2 years.  If the Rockies do decide to trade him, I wouldn't think they would need to really take bad money back.  He is an elite player, in his prime, basically making market rate. 

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #611 on: January 29, 2020, 01:47:10 PM »
Yep

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4559024002

 ::)

Ken Rosenthal an idiot too?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222527260491767808

If you don't want to click on it, the quote is

"This guy wins.  He does it everywhere he goes.  It is a very clear pattern."





The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #612 on: January 29, 2020, 01:57:14 PM »
::)

Ken Rosenthal an idiot too?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222527260491767808

If you don't want to click on it, the quote is

"This guy wins.  He does it everywhere he goes.  It is a very clear pattern."



Yep. He has a clear pattern of being a bad manager.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #613 on: January 29, 2020, 02:05:59 PM »
Yeah I’m guessing through multiple years of rumors that KB was unhappy with how the Cubs dealt with his service time he suddenly had a come to Jesus moment while filing a grievance and they all just sat around and sang Kumbaya together. He probably signed a lifetime contract extension with the Cubs for $1M/year that will be announced shortly.

Not remotely what I said but let your irrational Cubs hate flow through you and make you look like a complete idiot. 

wadesworld

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #614 on: January 29, 2020, 02:07:36 PM »
Not remotely what I said but let your irrational Cubs hate flow through you and make you look like a complete idiot.

Then please explain to me what the opposite of what Nightengale reported would be?  You told everyone to believe the opposite of what he reports so...

I agree.  Believing that KB is thrilled with the Cubs (the opposite of what Nightengale is reporting) would make me look like a complete idiot.  Thank you for confirming.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #615 on: January 29, 2020, 02:09:46 PM »
Are the Cubs pursuing Arenado?  That'd be interesting.  You are right on about his no trade, but it seems like he would be happy to get out of Colorado based on recent comments.  He is a tricky trade candidate, as he has an opt out in 2 years.  If the Rockies do decide to trade him, I wouldn't think they would need to really take bad money back.  He is an elite player, in his prime, basically making market rate.

There's been been rumors the Cubs have discussed a Bryant for Arenado trade straight up and other rumors that the Cubs trade Contreras along with Chatwood or Heyward to get some salary relief.  Obviously there should be a lot of skepticism there but you can see how that could make some sense. 

As for Arenado's no-trade clause, he clearly wants out of CO but I think he could use it to dictate where me might want to go, similar to what Stanton did to get out of Miami a couple of years ago.  The opt-out is a key aspect.  Would he be willing to tear up the opt-out to get to a place he wants to be?  It would be difficult to give up talent and take on the contract with the additional risk he could walk in two years. 

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #616 on: January 29, 2020, 02:11:04 PM »
Then please explain to me what the opposite of what Nightengale reported would be?  You told everyone to believe the opposite of what he reports so...

I agree.  Believing that KB is thrilled with the Cubs (the opposite of what Nightengale is reporting) would make me look like a complete idiot.  Thank you for confirming.

The opposite is that he didn't say that or doesn't feel that way, which has already been reported.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2020/1/29/21113460/kris-bryant-cubs-grievance

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #617 on: January 29, 2020, 02:11:48 PM »

Yep. He has a clear pattern of being a bad manager.

Hahah


https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1222563813888876552

I'm curious as to you would have hired for the Astros.  Scioscia is another guy that I think would have worked, but I have no idea if he wants to manage again. 

Let me guess?  You'd go with Cora?  Beltran perhaps?

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #618 on: January 29, 2020, 02:23:14 PM »
Hahah


https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1222563813888876552

I'm curious as to you would have hired for the Astros.  Scioscia is another guy that I think would have worked, but I have no idea if he wants to manage again. 

Let me guess?  You'd go with Cora?  Beltran perhaps?


Someone not named "Dusty Baker"
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #619 on: January 29, 2020, 02:24:53 PM »

Someone not named "Dusty Baker"

Wow.  Clever.  And thoughtful.  You add so much to conversations.  Thanks.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #620 on: January 29, 2020, 02:29:49 PM »
Wow.  Clever.  And thoughtful.  You add so much to conversations.  Thanks.


If you don't like what I add, don't ask me questions.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #621 on: January 29, 2020, 02:40:57 PM »

If you don't like what I add, don't ask me questions.

Well, I gave you too much credit, and thought you could maybe carry on a conversation like an adult.  That was my mistake.  I should have know you are all BS and no substance at all.  A mistake I will try not to repeat.  Thanks.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #622 on: January 29, 2020, 02:49:06 PM »
Well, I gave you too much credit, and thought you could maybe carry on a conversation like an adult. 

Why would I carry on an adult conversation with someone with a child's intellect? 
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #623 on: January 29, 2020, 03:05:22 PM »
Arenado to the Cubs for Bryant + prospect in the 5-10 range.
Who says no?

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #624 on: January 29, 2020, 03:28:05 PM »
Arenado to the Cubs for Bryant + prospect in the 5-10 range.
Who says no?

Cubs unless they shed a ton of salary first. 

 

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