MLB Hot Stove 2019-20

[WI inferiority Complexes]

And Jeremy Jeffres to the Cubs.

[cheebs09]

And Jeremy Jeffres to the Cubs.

Looks like a low-risk signing for the Cubs. He's not been great outside of Milwaukee. Hopefully that continues.

[buckchuckler]

Looks like a low-risk signing for the Cubs. He's not been great outside of Milwaukee. Hopefully that continues.

It is kind of crazy, since Souza still isn't official, I think this is the Cubs first major league free agent signing. 

[buckchuckler]

Could you hire a guy who is more anti-Astros than Dusty?  It's almost comical.

Seems like a perfect hire actually.  He will be able to handle the media, which will be a complete circus.  And he should command immediate respect from the players. 

Is he into analytics?  Probably not.  But the Astros need stability.  Dusty should give them that, and also, who knows what the Astros front office strategy will be, as their GM and Assistant GM are no longer there.

[The Sultan]

Seems like a perfect hire actually.  He will be able to handle the media, which will be a complete circus.  And he should command immediate respect from the players. 

Is he into analytics?  Probably not.  But the Astros need stability.  Dusty should give them that, and also, who knows what the Astros front office strategy will be, as their GM and Assistant GM are no longer there.

Counterpoint:  he's not very good.

[tower912]

Could be worse.  Could be Ausmus.

[MUBurrow]

It is kind of crazy, since Souza still isn't official, I think this is the Cubs first major league free agent signing.

For a team with no money to spend, Jeffress and Souza are good high upside lottery tickets. 

[buckchuckler]

Counterpoint:  he's not very good.

He is a 3 time manager of the year, .532 winning % (in 3500 games), and led teams to the playoffs 9 times (at least once with each of the teams he has managed).  But I'm sure you're right.

[buckchuckler]

For a team with no money to spend that doesn't want to spend money, Jeffress and Souza are good high upside lottery tickets.

Is that what you meant?

They lost Kintzler, Strop and Cishek and filled those spots with Jeffress.  If I were a Cub fan, that bullpen would be concerning.  Even if you are banking on a return to from from Kimbrel.

[The Sultan]

He is a 3 time manager of the year, .532 winning % (in 3500 games), and led teams to the playoffs 9 times (at least once with each of the teams he has managed).  But I'm sure you're right.

He's been fortunate to manage good teams and not f*ck them up terribly.  Look, if you want Dusty managing your team, go ahead.  I'll hire someone with a brain and beat you consistently. 

[Pakuni]

He is a 3 time manager of the year, .532 winning % (in 3500 games), and led teams to the playoffs 9 times (at least once with each of the teams he has managed).  But I'm sure you're right.

This is correct.
The irony is that the reason some people think Dusty isn't good is because his teams haven't had a ton of playoff success.... while failing to recognize that he's been a manager who consistently gets teams to the playoffs.

[The Sultan]

This is correct.
The irony is that the reason some people think Dusty isn't good is because his teams haven't had a ton of playoff success.... while failing to recognize that he's been a manager who consistently gets teams to the playoffs.

He generally gets good teams to the playoffs.  Where they fall apart.

Then the next guy comes in and does things like lead them to a World Series championship two years later (Nationals) or increase their number of wins (Giants, Cubs)

[buckchuckler]

He's been fortunate to manage good teams and not f*ck them up terribly.  Look, if you want Dusty managing your team, go ahead.  I'll hire someone with a brain and beat you consistently.

Interesting, because all the other real MLB GMs hiring managers have only been able to beat Dusty's teams 47% of the time.  Over a pretty significant sample size.  I'm sure you'd do better though.   You're ever so much smarter.

[buckchuckler]

He's been fortunate to manage good teams and not f*ck them up terribly.

And isn't this probably the Astros goal exactly?

[Pakuni]

He generally gets good teams to the playoffs.  Where they fall apart.

Then the next guy comes in and does things like lead them to a World Series championship two years later (Nationals) or increase their number of wins (Giants, Cubs)

Some might suggest there were some key differences between the 2019 Nationals roster and their 2016 and 2017 rosters (aka Corbin and Soto, plus full seasons of Eaton and Robles).

[WI inferiority Complexes]

You guys are White Sox fans, right?  If it were possible, would you want Dusty Baker to manage the White Sox this season? 

Rick Renteria is lifetime 274-373, and has never lost fewer than 89 games in a season.  (I would take Renteria over Baker).

[Pakuni]

You guys are White Sox fans, right?  If it were possible, would you want Dusty Baker to manage the White Sox this season? 

Rick Renteria is lifetime 274-373, and has never lost fewer than 89 games in a season.  (I would take Renteria over Baker).

No, but not because he's a bad manager.
I don't want him anywhere near the White Sox young  - and in nearly every case surgically repaired - arms.

[The Sultan]

No, but not because he's a bad manager.
I don't want him anywhere near the White Sox young  - and in nearly every case surgically repaired - arms.

LOL.  "He's a good manager, but not for my team."

[The Sultan]

Interesting, because all the other real MLB GMs hiring managers have only been able to beat Dusty's teams 47% of the time.  Over a pretty significant sample size.  I'm sure you'd do better though.   You're ever so much smarter.

I'm glad you like Dusty and think he's wonderful.  That tells me all I need to know about your baseball opinions.

[Pakuni]

LOL.  "He's a good manager, but not for my team."

I know, I know. Context can be a mentally taxing.

[buckchuckler]

I'm glad you like Dusty and think he's wonderful.  That tells me all I need to know about your baseball opinions.

And you sticking to an ignorant I'll for.wd opinion in light of facts is completely in character for you, so I guess I shouldn't expect differently.

I have no special affinity for Dusty.  I'm inclined to hate him as a former Cub.  But to say he's a bad manager is stupid.  How many other managers have led 4 different teams to the playoffs?  You can't be the bumbling moron you paint him to be and do that.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Is that what you meant?

They lost Kintzler, Strop and Cishek and filled those spots with Jeffress.  If I were a Cub fan, that bullpen would be concerning.  Even if you are banking on a return to from from Kimbrel.

The bullpen is absolutely a concern.  Now, in the 2nd half Wick and Ryan were very good but there's obviously not much of a track record there.  They have spots locked up though.  Basically, they're going with a volume approach.  Throwing a lot of high-upside, high-risk options against the wall and seeing what will stick. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Bryant loses his grievance.  I still have a hard time believing it took this long to come to a decision.

We'll see if the trade discussions pick up now that we know he has two years of control left.   With Ozuna signing in Atlanta that removes one suitor that made a lot of sense.  San Diego is seemingly focused on Betts and the Dodgers seemed more interested in Lindor and are unlikely to move any top prospects.  The market just doesn't seem to be there so I Hope KB is in the Cubs lineup opening day. 

Better to reassess this summer than to sell low. 

[MU82]

Dusty Baker has made a career of stepping into difficult situations, getting a team to believe in themselves and each other, and having good seasons. He's very good at infusing an "us against the world" mentality. Ballplayers historically have liked playing for him, at least at first. He excels at ego management, which is the most difficult part of being a big-league manager.

And he wins - usually very quickly - every place he's been, no matter how bad the team had been previously.

1992 SF 72-90
1993 SF 103-59 (Baker's first year)

2002 Cubs 67-95
2003 Cubs 88-74 (Baker's first year)

2007 Cin 72-90
2008 Cin 74-88 (Baker's first year)
2009 Cin 78-84
2010 Cin 91-71

2015 Wash 83-79
2016 Wash 95-67 (Baker's first year)

Average improvement in his first season: +16.5 games. He also took each franchise to the postseason at least once.

He usually has flamed out after a couple/few years, but regardless of what one feels about his strategic decisions, it's hard to look at the body of evidence above and deny that he has been a turnaround specialist.

Baker's use of starting pitchers also changed as the years went on and it became more the norm to coddle them. By the time he got to Washington, he didn't "abuse" Scherzer, Strasberg, Gonzalez, etc. Maybe that was upper management telling him what to do; if so, he obeyed orders - and won 2 division titles.

Houston isn't really a turnaround situation, it's a "crisis management" situation, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does well. Given that they cheated their way to 107 wins last season, I'm guessing that no matter how well he does, his streak of improving upon a team's prior-season record will end.

Disclosure: I know and like Dusty Baker.

That disclosure doesn't change the facts: Every single time he has been hired, the team has won more games the following season - in 3 of the 4 cases, significantly more games.

I wouldn't hire him to bring along a young team involved in a "process" situation, like the Astros were 5+ years ago. But if I had a veteran team that needed a jolt, I would not hesitate to hire him as manager.

[MUBurrow]

Houston isn't really a turnaround situation, it's a "crisis management" situation, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does well. Given that they cheated their way to 107 wins last season, I'm guessing that no matter how well he does, his streak of improving upon a team's prior-season record will end.

Disclosure: I know and like Dusty Baker.

I think this is all kind of the key to why Dusty is probably going to get this job.  82's feelings toward Dusty seem pretty universal in the industry (PS - its cool that you know him personally).  Even the people who don't think he's a good modern manager don't dislike him. 

Regardless of how much Jim Crane know about the cheating scandal, he just wants all of this to go away.  Their front office has been in the news for reprehensible behavior over the last year even before the cheating scandal, and Dusty is one of the few guys who is pretty much beyond reproach.  If the Astros win 95 games this year, people won't be happy, but its also going to be a lot harder to accuse them of still cheating with Dusty on the bench.  I think this is an image hire as much as a baseball one, and that's probably a good thing for the game and for the Astros in the long view.