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Author Topic: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection  (Read 12407 times)

Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #25 on: October 20, 2019, 08:22:37 PM »
Curious where that info is.  I have a subscription to pomeroy but couldn’t find it...thanks in advance.

Look at the season schedule -- the team's ranking going into that game is listed (under "Rk") just to the left of the opponent's ranking.
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PaintTouches

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2019, 12:02:07 PM »
For those interested in how accurate prediction models are, this is a great resource where you can see exactly how each one did last season.

https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1168982916266942466


And for those not interested in reading through spreadsheets:

Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2019, 12:17:05 PM »
The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) -- which ESPN claimed to be "the best power ranking available" -- falls behind KenPom and Sagarin.
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Silkk the Shaka

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2019, 12:48:43 PM »
The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) -- which ESPN claimed to be "the best power ranking available" -- falls behind KenPom and Sagarin.

I wonder if they have any incentive to make that claim?

MuMark

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Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2019, 04:11:57 PM »
https://twitter.com/garyparrishcbs/status/1186032136085819393?s=21

Memphis at #50 was one of the first things I noticed in looking through KenPom's preseason rankings -- especially after all the talk about their #1 recruiting class.

Reminds me a bit of LSU with Ben Simmons. The Tigers opened the 2015-16 season ranked in the Top 25 of the AP and Coaches polls; after all, they had the fourth-best recruiting class in the country, highlighted by a surefire #1 overall NBA draft pick!!! Pomeroy disagreed, initially ranking them #49. LSU finished 19-14 (11-7) in a down year for the SEC and missed postseason play altogether. Their final KenPom ranking was #76.
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MU82

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2019, 07:54:37 PM »
Memphis at #50 was one of the first things I noticed in looking through KenPom's preseason rankings -- especially after all the talk about their #1 recruiting class.

Reminds me a bit of LSU with Ben Simmons. The Tigers opened the 2015-16 season ranked in the Top 25 of the AP and Coaches polls; after all, they had the fourth-best recruiting class in the country, highlighted by a surefire #1 overall NBA draft pick!!! Pomeroy disagreed, initially ranking them #49. LSU finished 19-14 (11-7) in a down year for the SEC and missed postseason play altogether. Their final KenPom ranking was #76.

Yep. They even lost to a Marquette team that didn't make the postseason at all.
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ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #32 on: October 22, 2019, 10:34:17 AM »
Doesn't pomeroy use last season's data until mid to late December?  Before there is enough data feom the current year to be statistically accurate?

mu03eng

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2019, 10:38:28 AM »
Doesn't pomeroy use last season's data until mid to late December?  Before there is enough data feom the current year to be statistically accurate?

In part yes.....he uses last years data and then adjusts to current year by applying various statistical measures around new players on teams (transfers, freshmen), players improving with age, and players no longer on the roster (transfer and graduation). He doesn't start factoring in the current year data until some time in December and it doesn't hit peak accuracy until late January typically.
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MU82

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #36 on: October 22, 2019, 03:46:23 PM »
I am glad they don't host any of our games...oh wait, snap

It's all right. We'll get to show them we're at least #51!
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Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2019, 09:43:43 AM »
CBS not too high on MU with us at #52

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/

Norlander has Providence ahead of Villanova at #15. If anybody beats the Wildcats for the Big East title, I don't see it being the Friars.
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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #38 on: October 23, 2019, 09:51:20 AM »
Norlander has Providence ahead of Villanova at #15. If anybody beats the Wildcats for the Big East title, I don't see it being the Friars.

I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.
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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #39 on: October 23, 2019, 10:18:53 AM »
I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

Seton Hall and Xavier have something to say

brewcity77

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #40 on: October 23, 2019, 10:24:11 AM »
Seton Hall and Xavier have something to say prove

FIFY  ;)
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Uncle Rico

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #41 on: October 23, 2019, 10:25:01 AM »
I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

Providence will play hard and be solid defensively but Ed Cooley’s offenses at Providence have left a lot to be desired
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Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #42 on: October 23, 2019, 10:26:08 AM »
I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

I see Xavier, Providence and Creighton in a similar light. All three were NIT teams a year ago and return nearly everyone. All three should definitely be better; I think they're all pretty good bets to make the NCAA tournament. But I'm skeptical any of them can make that big of a jump to contend for a conference championship.

Providence's calling card is its defense -- ranked 42nd last season per KenPom, best in the Big East. But on the other end of the court, yeesh. The Friars finished dead last in the conference when it came to offensive efficiency (164th). And it wasn't close. This team couldn't shoot. They ranked 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 275th from two-point range, 257th outside the arc. Not good.

That doesn't sound like a potential conference champion to me. It sounds more like a Bizarro world version of Marquette during the 2017-18 season.
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Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #43 on: October 23, 2019, 10:28:53 AM »
Providence will play hard and be solid defensively but Ed Cooley’s offenses at Providence have left a lot to be desired

Or what Uncle Rico said.
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brewcity77

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #44 on: October 23, 2019, 10:34:07 AM »
Providence will play hard and be solid defensively but Ed Cooley’s offenses at Providence have left a lot to be desired

They do. Even his offenses with Dunn weren't as efficient as they'd like. But the defense is already there and statistically teams are more likely to improve offensively with experience. I'm more bullish with a team that has a good defense & proven efficient offensive options like Watson, Reeves, Pipkins, Holt, & Diallo.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #45 on: October 23, 2019, 10:44:00 AM »
They do. Even his offenses with Dunn weren't as efficient as they'd like. But the defense is already there and statistically teams are more likely to improve offensively with experience. I'm more bullish with a team that has a good defense & proven efficient offensive options like Watson, Reeves, Pipkins, Holt, & Diallo.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of what he’s done at Providence but I’m skeptical of their ceiling.  Either way, the league will be a blood bath
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Silkk the Shaka

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #46 on: October 23, 2019, 10:47:51 AM »
I see Xavier, Providence and Creighton in a similar light. All three were NIT teams a year ago and return nearly everyone. All three should definitely be better; I think they're all pretty good bets to make the NCAA tournament. But I'm skeptical any of them can make that big of a jump to contend for a conference championship.

Providence's calling card is its defense -- ranked 42nd last season per KenPom, best in the Big East. But on the other end of the court, yeesh. The Friars finished dead last in the conference when it came to offensive efficiency (164th). And it wasn't close. This team couldn't shoot. They ranked 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 275th from two-point range, 257th outside the arc. Not good.

That doesn't sound like a potential conference champion to me. It sounds more like a Bizarro world version of Marquette during the 2017-18 season.

Agreed with your logic, I don't see them as conference champ material

BUT... that MU team you reference improved its defense from #182 overall / #292 DeFG% to #45 overall / #18 DeFG% in one off-season

If Providence can make a similar leap on that side of the ball (even half as drastic) they'll be an extremely tough beat

Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #47 on: October 23, 2019, 10:58:15 AM »
I'm more bullish with a team that has a good defense & proven efficient offensive options like Watson, Reeves, Pipkins, Holt, & Diallo.

Diallo is the one I question. He can certainly fill up a stat sheet -- averaging 16 ppg, 8.1 rpg and 3.1 apg last season. But he's not all that efficient on offense.

He shot 45.5% from 2-point range last season, surprisingly low for a 6-7 front court player. For comparison, Villanova's Eric Paschall shot 53.2%. Creighton's Martin Krampelj shot 65.6%. Even Xavier's Naji Marshall shot 47.6%. (The national average is 50.1%)

And while Diallo's outside shooting has improved, he only connected on 33.3% of his three-pointers. (Again, below the national average of 34.4%.)

Poor shooting is the biggest factor in Diallo's ORtg of just 102.8.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #48 on: October 23, 2019, 11:05:12 AM »
Diallo is the one I question. He can certainly fill up a stat sheet -- averaging 16 ppg, 8.1 rpg and 3.1 apg last season. But he's not all that efficient on offense.

He shot 45.5% from 2-point range last season, surprisingly low for a 6-7 front court player. For comparison, Villanova's Eric Paschall shot 53.2%. Creighton's Martin Krampelj shot 65.6%. Even Xavier's Naji Marshall shot 47.6%. (The national average is 50.1%)

And while Diallo's outside shooting has improved, he only connected on 33.3% of his three-pointers. (Again, below the national average of 34.4%.)

Poor shooting is the biggest factor in Diallo's ORtg of just 102.8.

All of the numbers you’ve provided are why I have my doubts about Providence.  We have enough data points that show Cooley doesn’t have very good or efficient offenses.  His best offense was in 2014 with Bryce Cotton.  It was 42nd and 92nd overall with Kris Dunn at PG. 

It’s possible with more usable components it’s better this year.
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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #49 on: October 23, 2019, 11:16:43 AM »
Providence's calling card is its defense -- ranked 42nd last season per KenPom, best in the Big East. But on the other end of the court, yeesh. The Friars finished dead last in the conference when it came to offensive efficiency (164th). And it wasn't close. This team couldn't shoot. They ranked 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 275th from two-point range, 257th outside the arc. Not good.

They did. But before his injury, AJ Reeves was making 55.6% from 2 & 45.3% from 3. Emmitt Holt shot 57.1% from 2 & 34.4% from 3 when he was last healthy. And Isaiah Jackson & Makai Ashton-Langford, who combined to shoot 42.7% from 2 & 32.1% from 3 are gone.

Add in a proven distributor in Pipkins (top-25 in assist rate last year) and they'll be taking better shots from better positions. I think a top-50 offense and top-25 defense are realistic for the Friars.
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