MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection

[Silkk the Shaka]

#2 in Big East behind Villanova, with X & SH right behind

BE 2nd strongest conference

[Windyplayer]

Fantastic. Lot of variables going into the season as well. If most of those work in our favor, top 10 is not crazy.

[brewcity77]

Going game by game, it has us at 20-8 (12-6) and depending on who we play in Orlando, it would certainly have another win in our second game and a toss-up in the third (Maryland is 16, one ahead of us).

Looking at our schedule, lots of toss-ups. Purdue, Wisconsin, and K-State are all game we are 48-50% to win. I'll admit, I'm surprised how much the computers like Purdue. Top-10 in both offense and defense. Feels like the Edwards effect. Every Big East team is projected in the top-100.

Also, 4 ACC teams in the top-6, yet they are the fourth strongest conference.

[shoothoops]

NM

[Dr. Blackheart]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

[GB Warrior]

 How much does Michigan State drop once Hauser is cleared and playing defense

[Uncle Rico]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

I always lean towards KenPom but don’t dismiss T-Rank.  T-Rank has some fun features.  But I’ve definitely found KenPom to be the better overall predictor of things to come.  My hunch is given the strength/depth of the Big East this year, all the pre-season stuff will look wildly different by March

[Silkk the Shaka]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

Yeah if anything I'd reverse those, with defense being anywhere from #5-15 and offense being #30-50

If the offense can outperform my expectations, this could be a scary good team. Really hope Markus can stay healthy!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bart Tovik is a Badger lawyer who lives in Evanston and Pomeroy is a weather forecaster.  Hard to pick who is more accurate based on that 411.

[brewcity77]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

I love T-Rank's customizability (is that a word?) and how you can really zero in on specific time periods. I wish Pomeroy would add a similar tool. It would also be nice if it was easier to look back at snapshots in time of what the rankings were on a given date. You can do it now, but it's incomplete and difficult to get to.

[MU82]

Isn't KenPom the one that ranked F%cky #1 for about 5 straight seasons? I hope they are as bad as the service now says, but we'll see.

As for MU, it would be wonderful to see if this rating (or even better) pans out. I'm a bit anxious about how freakin' important non-con is gonna be to this season. I know it's always important but seems moreso this year to me for some reason.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

17 seems about right. When I ran the numbers myself I came up with 14 for MU. The talent level is unquestionably top 25 level. The questionable piece is if the coaching staff can depart from their system because I don't think we have the pieces to run the same offense we have the past four seasons

[Cheeks]

How good is this data before even a single game is played? 

I’ll wait...

[Cheeks]

Isn't KenPom the one that ranked F%cky #1 for about 5 straight seasons? I hope they are as bad as the service now says, but we'll see.

As for MU, it would be wonderful to see if this rating (or even better) pans out. I'm a bit anxious about how freakin' important non-con is gonna be to this season. I know it's always important but seems moreso this year to me for some reason.

He had them top 5 for a number of years which he acknowledged often.

https://kenpom.com/blog/on-wisconsin-the-faq/

[tower912]

So, according to one measurement, the sky remains aloft.   17 seems about right.

[Class71]

Best news in a long time. Let's see if we can do it.

[Hards Alumni]

How good is this data before even a single game is played? 

I’ll wait...

Let me guess, its a crapshoot!

[Cheeks]

Let me guess, its a crapshoot!

This time of year...yes

[Marcus92]

How good is this data before even a single game is played?

It's true that the 2019-20 Marquette team hasn't yet played a single game.

But apart from Symir and Dexter, all of Pomeroy's data is based on past in-game performance at the Division I level -- and adjusted for the level of competition. There's 3 seasons worth of data on Markus, Sacar, Ed and Jayce, 2 seasons of data on Koby, Theo and Jamal, and 1 season of data on Brendan and Greg. Those 9 players are projected to account for the vast majority of minutes played this season.

KenPom has proven to be one of the most accurate systems for predicting margin of victory. Like any statistical model, it's a tool for evaluation. The tool will obviously be much less precise at this point. Marquette's ranking 15 games into the season will provide a far better picture.

[tower912]

The IU scrimmage bears this out.

[Cheeks]

It's true that the 2019-20 Marquette team hasn't yet played a single game.

But apart from Symir and Dexter, all of Pomeroy's data is based on past in-game performance at the Division I level -- and adjusted for the level of competition. There's 3 seasons worth of data on Markus, Sacar, Ed and Jayce, 2 seasons of data on Koby, Theo and Jamal, and 1 season of data on Brendan and Greg. Those 9 players are projected to account for the vast majority of minutes played this season.

KenPom has proven to be one of the most accurate systems for predicting margin of victory. Like any statistical model, it's a tool for evaluation. The tool will obviously be much less precise at this point. Marquette's ranking 15 games into the season will provide a far better picture.

I get that part, but with 350 teams, some having massive changes, some only minor changes, there are a lot of variables outside of MU that also influence these ratings....let alone the departure of two key starters from our squad. 

I don’t know if pomeroy provides last year’s beginning of season numbers or not.

[MUDPT]

I get that part, but with 350 teams, some having massive changes, some only minor changes, there are a lot of variables outside of MU that also influence these ratings....let alone the departure of two key starters from our squad. 

I don’t know if pomeroy provides last year’s beginning of season numbers or not.

He does. MU was 29 and ended 33.

[PGsHeroes32]

Butler at 33???

[brewcity77]

Butler at 33???

I'll be honest, I think that's batcrap crazy. I'm not even sure they're an NIT team.

[Cheeks]

He does. MU was 29 and ended 33.

Curious where that info is.  I have a subscription to pomeroy but couldn’t find it...thanks in advance.

[Marcus92]

Curious where that info is.  I have a subscription to pomeroy but couldn’t find it...thanks in advance.

Look at the season schedule -- the team's ranking going into that game is listed (under "Rk") just to the left of the opponent's ranking.

[PaintTouches]

For those interested in how accurate prediction models are, this is a great resource where you can see exactly how each one did last season.

https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1168982916266942466


And for those not interested in reading through spreadsheets:

[Marcus92]

The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) -- which ESPN claimed to be "the best power ranking available" -- falls behind KenPom and Sagarin.

[Silkk the Shaka]

The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) -- which ESPN claimed to be "the best power ranking available" -- falls behind KenPom and Sagarin.

I wonder if they have any incentive to make that claim?

[MuMark]

https://twitter.com/garyparrishcbs/status/1186032136085819393?s=21

[Marcus92]

https://twitter.com/garyparrishcbs/status/1186032136085819393?s=21

Memphis at #50 was one of the first things I noticed in looking through KenPom's preseason rankings -- especially after all the talk about their #1 recruiting class.

Reminds me a bit of LSU with Ben Simmons. The Tigers opened the 2015-16 season ranked in the Top 25 of the AP and Coaches polls; after all, they had the fourth-best recruiting class in the country, highlighted by a surefire #1 overall NBA draft pick!!! Pomeroy disagreed, initially ranking them #49. LSU finished 19-14 (11-7) in a down year for the SEC and missed postseason play altogether. Their final KenPom ranking was #76.

[MU82]

Memphis at #50 was one of the first things I noticed in looking through KenPom's preseason rankings -- especially after all the talk about their #1 recruiting class.

Reminds me a bit of LSU with Ben Simmons. The Tigers opened the 2015-16 season ranked in the Top 25 of the AP and Coaches polls; after all, they had the fourth-best recruiting class in the country, highlighted by a surefire #1 overall NBA draft pick!!! Pomeroy disagreed, initially ranking them #49. LSU finished 19-14 (11-7) in a down year for the SEC and missed postseason play altogether. Their final KenPom ranking was #76.

Yep. They even lost to a Marquette team that didn't make the postseason at all.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Doesn't pomeroy use last season's data until mid to late December?  Before there is enough data feom the current year to be statistically accurate?

[mu03eng]

Doesn't pomeroy use last season's data until mid to late December?  Before there is enough data feom the current year to be statistically accurate?

In part yes.....he uses last years data and then adjusts to current year by applying various statistical measures around new players on teams (transfers, freshmen), players improving with age, and players no longer on the roster (transfer and graduation). He doesn't start factoring in the current year data until some time in December and it doesn't hit peak accuracy until late January typically.

[TheGym]

CBS not too high on MU with us at #52

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/

[Dr. Blackheart]

CBS not too high on MU with us at #52

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/

I am glad they don't host any of our games...oh wait, snap

[MU82]

I am glad they don't host any of our games...oh wait, snap

It's all right. We'll get to show them we're at least #51!

[Marcus92]

CBS not too high on MU with us at #52

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/

Norlander has Providence ahead of Villanova at #15. If anybody beats the Wildcats for the Big East title, I don't see it being the Friars.

[brewcity77]

Norlander has Providence ahead of Villanova at #15. If anybody beats the Wildcats for the Big East title, I don't see it being the Friars.

I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

[Hards Alumni]

I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

Seton Hall and Xavier have something to say

[brewcity77]

Seton Hall and Xavier have something to say prove

FIFY 

[Uncle Rico]

I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

Providence will play hard and be solid defensively but Ed Cooley’s offenses at Providence have left a lot to be desired

[Marcus92]

I disagree with his Marquette assessment, but agree that Villanova and Providence are our main competition for the Big East title. Alpha Diallo is the best front court player in the league and AJ Reeves was great when healthy. If Pipkins can be the next Cooley PG & Emmitt Holt is at all healthy, with their defense they could be one of the best teams in the league. I definitely like them more than teams like Xavier and Seton Hall that many are higher on.

I see Xavier, Providence and Creighton in a similar light. All three were NIT teams a year ago and return nearly everyone. All three should definitely be better; I think they're all pretty good bets to make the NCAA tournament. But I'm skeptical any of them can make that big of a jump to contend for a conference championship.

Providence's calling card is its defense -- ranked 42nd last season per KenPom, best in the Big East. But on the other end of the court, yeesh. The Friars finished dead last in the conference when it came to offensive efficiency (164th). And it wasn't close. This team couldn't shoot. They ranked 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 275th from two-point range, 257th outside the arc. Not good.

That doesn't sound like a potential conference champion to me. It sounds more like a Bizarro world version of Marquette during the 2017-18 season.

[Marcus92]

Providence will play hard and be solid defensively but Ed Cooley’s offenses at Providence have left a lot to be desired

Or what Uncle Rico said.

[brewcity77]

Providence will play hard and be solid defensively but Ed Cooley’s offenses at Providence have left a lot to be desired

They do. Even his offenses with Dunn weren't as efficient as they'd like. But the defense is already there and statistically teams are more likely to improve offensively with experience. I'm more bullish with a team that has a good defense & proven efficient offensive options like Watson, Reeves, Pipkins, Holt, & Diallo.

[Uncle Rico]

They do. Even his offenses with Dunn weren't as efficient as they'd like. But the defense is already there and statistically teams are more likely to improve offensively with experience. I'm more bullish with a team that has a good defense & proven efficient offensive options like Watson, Reeves, Pipkins, Holt, & Diallo.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of what he’s done at Providence but I’m skeptical of their ceiling.  Either way, the league will be a blood bath

[Silkk the Shaka]

I see Xavier, Providence and Creighton in a similar light. All three were NIT teams a year ago and return nearly everyone. All three should definitely be better; I think they're all pretty good bets to make the NCAA tournament. But I'm skeptical any of them can make that big of a jump to contend for a conference championship.

Providence's calling card is its defense -- ranked 42nd last season per KenPom, best in the Big East. But on the other end of the court, yeesh. The Friars finished dead last in the conference when it came to offensive efficiency (164th). And it wasn't close. This team couldn't shoot. They ranked 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 275th from two-point range, 257th outside the arc. Not good.

That doesn't sound like a potential conference champion to me. It sounds more like a Bizarro world version of Marquette during the 2017-18 season.

Agreed with your logic, I don't see them as conference champ material

BUT... that MU team you reference improved its defense from #182 overall / #292 DeFG% to #45 overall / #18 DeFG% in one off-season

If Providence can make a similar leap on that side of the ball (even half as drastic) they'll be an extremely tough beat

[Marcus92]

I'm more bullish with a team that has a good defense & proven efficient offensive options like Watson, Reeves, Pipkins, Holt, & Diallo.

Diallo is the one I question. He can certainly fill up a stat sheet -- averaging 16 ppg, 8.1 rpg and 3.1 apg last season. But he's not all that efficient on offense.

He shot 45.5% from 2-point range last season, surprisingly low for a 6-7 front court player. For comparison, Villanova's Eric Paschall shot 53.2%. Creighton's Martin Krampelj shot 65.6%. Even Xavier's Naji Marshall shot 47.6%. (The national average is 50.1%)

And while Diallo's outside shooting has improved, he only connected on 33.3% of his three-pointers. (Again, below the national average of 34.4%.)

Poor shooting is the biggest factor in Diallo's ORtg of just 102.8.

[Uncle Rico]

Diallo is the one I question. He can certainly fill up a stat sheet -- averaging 16 ppg, 8.1 rpg and 3.1 apg last season. But he's not all that efficient on offense.

He shot 45.5% from 2-point range last season, surprisingly low for a 6-7 front court player. For comparison, Villanova's Eric Paschall shot 53.2%. Creighton's Martin Krampelj shot 65.6%. Even Xavier's Naji Marshall shot 47.6%. (The national average is 50.1%)

And while Diallo's outside shooting has improved, he only connected on 33.3% of his three-pointers. (Again, below the national average of 34.4%.)

Poor shooting is the biggest factor in Diallo's ORtg of just 102.8.

All of the numbers you’ve provided are why I have my doubts about Providence.  We have enough data points that show Cooley doesn’t have very good or efficient offenses.  His best offense was in 2014 with Bryce Cotton.  It was 42nd and 92nd overall with Kris Dunn at PG. 

It’s possible with more usable components it’s better this year.

[brewcity77]

Providence's calling card is its defense -- ranked 42nd last season per KenPom, best in the Big East. But on the other end of the court, yeesh. The Friars finished dead last in the conference when it came to offensive efficiency (164th). And it wasn't close. This team couldn't shoot. They ranked 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 275th from two-point range, 257th outside the arc. Not good.

They did. But before his injury, AJ Reeves was making 55.6% from 2 & 45.3% from 3. Emmitt Holt shot 57.1% from 2 & 34.4% from 3 when he was last healthy. And Isaiah Jackson & Makai Ashton-Langford, who combined to shoot 42.7% from 2 & 32.1% from 3 are gone.

Add in a proven distributor in Pipkins (top-25 in assist rate last year) and they'll be taking better shots from better positions. I think a top-50 offense and top-25 defense are realistic for the Friars.

[Its DJOver]

They did. But before his injury, AJ Reeves was making 55.6% from 2 & 45.3% from 3. Emmitt Holt shot 57.1% from 2 & 34.4% from 3 when he was last healthy. And Isaiah Jackson & Makai Ashton-Langford, who combined to shoot 42.7% from 2 & 32.1% from 3 are gone.

Add in a proven distributor in Pipkins (top-25 in assist rate last year) and they'll be taking better shots from better positions. I think a top-50 offense and top-25 defense are realistic for the Friars.

And when was that?  He's on the Otule plan playing exactly six games since the end of the 16-17 season, and the last time he played us he scored 8 points going up against Matt.  Until he proves that he's back and fully healthy, I'd count on him about as much as we can count on Ike.

[brewcity77]

And when was that?  He's on the Otule plan playing exactly six games since the end of the 16-17 season, and the last time he played us he scored 8 points going up against Matt.  Until he proves that he's back and fully healthy, I'd count on him about as much as we can count on Ike.

That's fair. But the players that are better shooters and efficient offensive players are back and the ones that are worse shooters and less efficient generally left, and the position that has keyed Cooley's successful offenses should be better with Pipkins. I think expecting a significant offensive jump is fair. Moreso than teams like SHU & Xavier that are generally inefficient, didn't add much in terms of new players, and also have worse defenses.

[Marcus92]

Providence will certainly be an interesting team to watch this season. I agree they'll be better -- but a jump from #79 to around #30-35 feels right to me. Finishing somewhere between third and sixth in the Big East and earning a tournament bid in the 7 to 9 range.

If the Friars are better than that, it would likely be the best team Cooley has ever coached. His highest Big East finish was tying for 3rd in 2014, 2017 and 2018. All three of those teams finished 10-8 in conference and were ranked #48, #60 and #63, respectively, by Pomeroy.

Cooley's highest KenPom ranking came in 2015 when Providence was #27 after finishing 22-12 (11-7) and earning a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.