MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection

[Silkk the Shaka]

#2 in Big East behind Villanova, with X & SH right behind

BE 2nd strongest conference

[Windyplayer]

Fantastic. Lot of variables going into the season as well. If most of those work in our favor, top 10 is not crazy.

[brewcity77]

Going game by game, it has us at 20-8 (12-6) and depending on who we play in Orlando, it would certainly have another win in our second game and a toss-up in the third (Maryland is 16, one ahead of us).

Looking at our schedule, lots of toss-ups. Purdue, Wisconsin, and K-State are all game we are 48-50% to win. I'll admit, I'm surprised how much the computers like Purdue. Top-10 in both offense and defense. Feels like the Edwards effect. Every Big East team is projected in the top-100.

Also, 4 ACC teams in the top-6, yet they are the fourth strongest conference.

[shoothoops]

NM

[Dr. Blackheart]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom's projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

[GB Warrior]

 How much does Michigan State drop once Hauser is cleared and playing defense

[Uncle Rico]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom's projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

I always lean towards KenPom but don't dismiss T-Rank.  T-Rank has some fun features.  But I've definitely found KenPom to be the better overall predictor of things to come.  My hunch is given the strength/depth of the Big East this year, all the pre-season stuff will look wildly different by March

[Silkk the Shaka]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom's projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

Yeah if anything I'd reverse those, with defense being anywhere from #5-15 and offense being #30-50

If the offense can outperform my expectations, this could be a scary good team. Really hope Markus can stay healthy!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bart Tovik is a Badger lawyer who lives in Evanston and Pomeroy is a weather forecaster.  Hard to pick who is more accurate based on that 411.

[brewcity77]

Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom's projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

I love T-Rank's customizability (is that a word?) and how you can really zero in on specific time periods. I wish Pomeroy would add a similar tool. It would also be nice if it was easier to look back at snapshots in time of what the rankings were on a given date. You can do it now, but it's incomplete and difficult to get to.

[MU82]

Isn't KenPom the one that ranked F%cky #1 for about 5 straight seasons? I hope they are as bad as the service now says, but we'll see.

As for MU, it would be wonderful to see if this rating (or even better) pans out. I'm a bit anxious about how freakin' important non-con is gonna be to this season. I know it's always important but seems moreso this year to me for some reason.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

17 seems about right. When I ran the numbers myself I came up with 14 for MU. The talent level is unquestionably top 25 level. The questionable piece is if the coaching staff can depart from their system because I don't think we have the pieces to run the same offense we have the past four seasons

[Cheeks]

How good is this data before even a single game is played? 

I'll wait...

[Cheeks]

Isn't KenPom the one that ranked F%cky #1 for about 5 straight seasons? I hope they are as bad as the service now says, but we'll see.

As for MU, it would be wonderful to see if this rating (or even better) pans out. I'm a bit anxious about how freakin' important non-con is gonna be to this season. I know it's always important but seems moreso this year to me for some reason.

He had them top 5 for a number of years which he acknowledged often.

https://kenpom.com/blog/on-wisconsin-the-faq/

[tower912]

So, according to one measurement, the sky remains aloft.   17 seems about right.

[Class71]

Best news in a long time. Let's see if we can do it.

[Hards Alumni]

How good is this data before even a single game is played? 

I'll wait...

Let me guess, its a crapshoot!

[Cheeks]

Let me guess, its a crapshoot!

This time of year...yes

[Marcus92]

How good is this data before even a single game is played?

It's true that the 2019-20 Marquette team hasn't yet played a single game.

But apart from Symir and Dexter, all of Pomeroy's data is based on past in-game performance at the Division I level -- and adjusted for the level of competition. There's 3 seasons worth of data on Markus, Sacar, Ed and Jayce, 2 seasons of data on Koby, Theo and Jamal, and 1 season of data on Brendan and Greg. Those 9 players are projected to account for the vast majority of minutes played this season.

KenPom has proven to be one of the most accurate systems for predicting margin of victory. Like any statistical model, it's a tool for evaluation. The tool will obviously be much less precise at this point. Marquette's ranking 15 games into the season will provide a far better picture.

[tower912]

The IU scrimmage bears this out.

[Cheeks]

It's true that the 2019-20 Marquette team hasn't yet played a single game.

But apart from Symir and Dexter, all of Pomeroy's data is based on past in-game performance at the Division I level -- and adjusted for the level of competition. There's 3 seasons worth of data on Markus, Sacar, Ed and Jayce, 2 seasons of data on Koby, Theo and Jamal, and 1 season of data on Brendan and Greg. Those 9 players are projected to account for the vast majority of minutes played this season.

KenPom has proven to be one of the most accurate systems for predicting margin of victory. Like any statistical model, it's a tool for evaluation. The tool will obviously be much less precise at this point. Marquette's ranking 15 games into the season will provide a far better picture.

I get that part, but with 350 teams, some having massive changes, some only minor changes, there are a lot of variables outside of MU that also influence these ratings....let alone the departure of two key starters from our squad. 

I don't know if pomeroy provides last year's beginning of season numbers or not.

[MUDPT]

I get that part, but with 350 teams, some having massive changes, some only minor changes, there are a lot of variables outside of MU that also influence these ratings....let alone the departure of two key starters from our squad. 

I don't know if pomeroy provides last year's beginning of season numbers or not.

He does. MU was 29 and ended 33.

[PGsHeroes32]

Butler at 33???

[brewcity77]

Butler at 33???

I'll be honest, I think that's batcrap crazy. I'm not even sure they're an NIT team.

[Cheeks]

He does. MU was 29 and ended 33.

Curious where that info is.  I have a subscription to pomeroy but couldn't find it...thanks in advance.