Three Man Weave Season Preview

[Its DJOver]

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/marquette-preview-2020

They usually do a more in depth analysis than most, and it's no different this year.  Like some here, thought we were overrated prior to Hausergate, and are now underrated.  Pointed out that both Sacar and Bailey came on strong down the stretch.  Think JJ will play a big role, and threw out the twin towers idea that most won't be convinced of until one of them shows an ability to hit a shot from more than 5 feet out.  Overall good analysis.

[wadesworld]

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/marquette-preview-2020

They usually do a more in depth analysis than most, and it's no different this year.  Like some here, thought we were overrated prior to Hausergate, and are now underrated.  Pointed out that both Sacar and Bailey came on strong down the stretch.  Think JJ will play a big role, and threw out the twin towers idea that most won't be convinced of until one of them shows an ability to hit a shot from more than 5 feet out.  Overall good analysis.

Solid article.  My question about it is how they think we're overrated but rate us at 32.  I think that's right around where most places seem to think we'll be...a back end top 25 team or just outside of the top 25.

[Marcus92]

The team/lineup summary table really got my attention.

MU's offense was clearly far more productive with Sam and Joey on the court together (1.07 points per possession) than with other lineups (0.98). Without the Hausers, 3-point field goal percentage dropped from 41.6% to 35.7%, turnover percentage ticked up from 17.3% to 19.5% and free throw rate declined from 37% to 33%.

Sure looks like bad news heading into the 2019-20 season. Every reason for pessimism, right?

However...

MU's defense was also clearly better without the Hausers (a stifling 0.89 PPP) than it was with them (0.95 ppp). MU's already impressive 3-point field goal defense improved slightly (from 32.7% to 32.0%). But the big difference was in forcing turnovers. With the Hausers: 14.3 TO%. Without the Hausers: 17.4% TO%.

When you look at differentials (offensive PPP minus defensive PPP):

With the Hausers: +0.12 PPP (1.07 - 0.95)
Without the Hausers: +0.09 PPP (0.98 - 0.89)

Still a drop-off, for sure. But far from a wonder-if-we'll-even-win-8-games-in-conference-let-alone-make-the-tournament-Wojo-is-cooked scenario. That still looks like a team that could easily finish top 3 or 4 in the Big East.

Plus...

That differential doesn't take into account any off-season improvement by the returning players: Markus, Sacar, Theo, Brendan, Jamal and Ed.

Plus...

That differential doesn't take into account any new additions to the playing roster: Koby McEwen, Jayce Johnson, Greg Elliott, Ike Eke, Symir Torrence and Dexter Akanno.

I'm looking forward to seeing how the new pieces fit together in person on Saturday. There are a lot of question marks. But I don't think the team's floor is as low as some of the predictions (come on, 7th in the Big East, really?). And its ceiling could be just as high as last season (with an outside chance at a Big East title if the cards fall the right way).

Great article. Thanks for posting.

[The Sultan]

My hope is that the newcomers defensive abilities are going to be enough to overcome the drop in offense.  Especially Koby, who I think is going to be able to score.  Not at a Sam-like level, but enough.

[Its DJOver]

Solid article.  My question about it is how they think we're overrated but rate us at 32.  I think that's right around where most places seem to think we'll be...a back end top 25 team or just outside of the top 25.

The guy that actually wrote it had us 19th, it was the other two putting us 39th and 40th that killed the average. 

[Herman Cain]

I liked the Bottom Line

[willie warrior]

Solid article.  My question about it is how they think we're overrated but rate us at 32.  I think that's right around where most places seem to think we'll be...a back end top 25 team or just outside of the top 25.

Ranking not too hot as we enter the Duke prodigy's 6th year.

[mu03eng]

I know I'm captain of the SS Optimism normally, but I still have a pretty bullish view on the team this year. This team will look very different stylistically this year, it'll be an 80's Big East kind of throwback team. They will be about hardnose defense and a lot of slashing with some kicking when necessary (namely Corner Sacar, Howard from anywhere in the half court, and Koby). I think this will be the toughest team under Wojo, it'll just be a matter of whether or not a slashing team can still succeed in modern college basketball of spread and shoot.

[Loose Cannon]

I know I'm captain of the SS Optimism normally, but I still have a pretty bullish view on the team this year. This team will look very different stylistically this year, it'll be an 80's Big East kind of throwback team. They will be about hardnose defense and a lot of slashing with some kicking when necessary (namely Corner Sacar, Howard from anywhere in the half court, and Koby). I think this will be the toughest team under Wojo, it'll just be a matter of whether or not a slashing team can still succeed in modern college basketball of spread and shoot.

Also I'm looking for Bailey to being a big part of our 3pt offence.

[wadesworld]

I know I'm captain of the SS Optimism normally, but I still have a pretty bullish view on the team this year. This team will look very different stylistically this year, it'll be an 80's Big East kind of throwback team. They will be about hardnose defense and a lot of slashing with some kicking when necessary (namely Corner Sacar, Howard from anywhere in the half court, and Koby). I think this will be the toughest team under Wojo, it'll just be a matter of whether or not a slashing team can still succeed in modern college basketball of spread and shoot.

Also I'm looking for Bailey to being a big part of our 3pt offence.

Yup.  I think if one of Koby, Greg, Sacar, Brendan, and Jamal are very good three point shooters and a second is a solid three point shooter, both on 4+ attempts per game from 3, this team will be a top 10 team.

There aren't going to be many back courts better than Markus, Koby, and Sacar being backed up by Symir and Greg in the country, and guards win in basketball.

[genious expert]

I know I'm captain of the SS Optimism normally, but I still have a pretty bullish view on the team this year. This team will look very different stylistically this year, it'll be an 80's Big East kind of throwback team. They will be about hardnose defense and a lot of slashing with some kicking when necessary (namely Corner Sacar, Howard from anywhere in the half court, and Koby). I think this will be the toughest team under Wojo, it'll just be a matter of whether or not a slashing team can still succeed in modern college basketball of spread and shoot.

I've been thinking for a while now that maybe MU fans have a warped perspective on college basketball offenses just from watching our own team the last few years.

Last year, MU scored 36.4% of their points from 3. That ranked as the #68 highest in the country out of 353 teams.

Here are the top 4 seeds from the tournament last year:

Duke - 26.5/310
Gonzaga - 26.5/309
UNC - 30.3/224
Virginia - 35.5/89
Kentucky - 23/342
Tennessee - 26.1/314
Michigan - 33.4/129
Michigan St - 31.6/188
LSU - 25.2/328
Tex Tech - 30.1/230
Houston - 35.8/77
Purdue - 39.7/18
Kansas - 28.6/261
Florida St - 29.4/249
Kansas St - 32.3/166
Virginia Tech - 38.1/40

So yes, I think a slashing team can still win. As long as they do it efficiently.

[genious expert]

Also here are MU's numbers and rank with/without the Hausers.

With:
FT: 19.9% - 114
2FG: 43.7% - 321
3FG: 36.4% - 68

Without:
FT: 21.1% - 57
2FG: 47.7% - 222
3FG: 31.1% - 199

[Herman Cain]

MU will be a better overall team this year.
1. More Athletic Lineup
2. Better team chemistry

I expect Markus to have a monster year. Everyone else will be delighted to get more playing time .

All that said, our record may not be as good because the Big East as a whole is going to be much stronger.

MU should be able to get 3rd in the league and make it to the second weekend of the tournament.

[Newsdreams]

MU will be a better overall team this year.
1. More Athletic Lineup
2. Better team chemistry

I expect Markus to have a monster year. Everyone else will be delighted to get more playing time .

All that said, our record may not be as good because the Big East as a whole is going to be much stronger.

MU should be able to get 3rd in the league and make it to the second weekend of the tournament.

And your wet fantasy of Wojo being poached will be closer and Stan will be the man!!

[Herman Cain]

And your wet fantasy of Wojo being poached will be closer and Stan will be the man!!

My wet fantasy involves Raquel Welch and Ann-Margret

[1SE]

"the Milwaukee faithful won't be satisfied until the Golden Eagles can muster a deep run in March. Those Sweet-16 and Elite-8 trips at the end of the Buzz Williams era are still top of mind for this hungry fanbase, and will continue to haunt Wojo until he finally makes it out of the first round"

Yep. But it's a crapshoot anyway.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

MU will be a better overall team this year.
1. More Athletic Lineup
2. Better team chemistry

I expect Markus to have a monster year. Everyone else will be delighted to get more playing time .

All that said, our record may not be as good because the Big East as a whole is going to be much stronger.

MU should be able to get 3rd in the league and make it to the second weekend of the tournament.

I love the enthusiasm Herm!  Hope this happens.

[WarriorFan]

Bailey needs to decide if he's going to be Jimmy Butler or Jamil Wilson. 
I think his ceiling is Butler-esque but he's gotta show some toughness.

[Loose Cannon]

Bailey needs to decide if he's going to be Jimmy Butler or Jamil Wilson. 
I think his ceiling is Butler-esque but he's gotta show some toughness.

Yep "The Fighting Mormon".  Maybe TJ can help with the facial expressions.

[The Sultan]

Jamil's problem wasn't lack of toughness.

[Marcus92]

Jamil might have thrived more at MU with different players around him. His senior year, the offense was very half-court oriented, well suited to Davante's incredibly efficient post-up game. But while Jamil's offense never quite seemed to gel, he was a very versatile defender, a strong rebounder for his size (18.3 DRB% as a senior) and an excellent passer (19.3 AST%).

[Lennys Tap]

Bailey needs to decide if he's going to be Jimmy Butler or Jamil Wilson. 
I think his ceiling is Butler-esque but he's gotta show some toughness.

nm

[Lennys Tap]

Bailey needs to decide if he's going to be Jimmy Butler or Jamil Wilson. 
I think his ceiling is Butler-esque but he's gotta show some toughness.

Wish it were as easy as that. So far he hasn't "decided" to be close to Jamil or in the same universe as JFB.

[Galway Eagle]

Wish it were as easy as that. So far he hasn't "decided" to be close to Jamil or in the same universe as JFB.

Well he's had one year after two years off. Maybe give him a sophomore year or at least a foreign trip before writing him off

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wish it were as easy as that. So far he hasn't "decided" to be close to Jamil or in the same universe as JFB.

He was pretty close to Jamil's first year at Oregon and I would say in the same universe as JFB's first year in blue and gold. Jamil and JFB definitely had better first years but I don't think it's by that much.

JFB: 19.6 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.7 bpg for 6 seed
JW: 16.9 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.5 bpg for team that missed the NIT
BB: 14.1 mpg, 3.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.5 bpg for 5 seed

To be clear, I'm not saying Bailey will be better than or even as good as JWil or JFB. Or even close to them for that matter. I'm just suggesting that we shouldn't compare his freshman year to their senior years.