MLB 2019 thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You're forgetting reductio ad absurdum.

He did that in the Daily Dose of Doom thread, so you can check that one off.

[buckchuckler]

You think Kimbrel's demands in March might have been a little bit different than they were today?  There's a reason not a single team signed him before the season started and it wasn't only the draft pick and pool money tied to him.

Additionally, this may point to it being unlikely that Zobrist returns and that's where his money may be going. So it actually makes quite a bit of sense.

Yeah, I'm sure he dropped his demands a day into the draft and that was the biggest factor in him signing.  The timing with it being nearly immediately after the draft pick forfeiture was just a small coincidence. 

And I didn't mean to pick on your precious cubbies.  Every team is stupid with that nonsense.  There are what, 5 or 6 teams that could have really used Kimbrel and all of them valued a late 1st or 2nd round pick more highly than a stud closer.  That doesn't seem to make much sense.  The Cubs traded a top 5 prospect in the game for a closer, and it was a huge reason they won their WS.  Now they (and all those other teams) weren't willing to give up a pick?  Teams that missed out on Kimbrel are going to end up trading more highly ranked prospects for closers than they would have sacrificed to sign him. Last season, it took 163 games to determine 2 divisions.  That 1 game a crappy 2nd or 3rd tier closer blew, could cost a team a division, or the playoffs.  So I hope they got good 2nd round talent.

Now the thing with Zobrist makes this make more sense, I didn't know that he was entertaining the idea of retiring nor did I know that the Cubs aren't paying him (obviously if he retires, they aren't paying him, but I guess I am still unclear, are they paying him now while he is on leave?  I would have assumed they are but this seems like maybe they are not?).

[buckchuckler]

Addison Russell the one banging the wife?  Lmao.

I would think it has to be someone more important to the Cubs roster than Zobrist, or else they would have moved (traded, waived DFA) the other player rather than lose Zobrist.  I could be wrong.

I really feel for Zobrist on this, even before Dish dropped that it was a teammate.  Seems like he is really struggling with this personal tragedy.  Poor guy.

[buckchuckler]

There was a similar rumor in Detroit a few years ago.  All involved, the husband with the cheating wife, the alleged philanderer, and the teammate who spilled the beans, were playing elsewhere within a year.

I believe the Blackhawks had a similar fairly recently as well.

[Pakuni]

Yeah there's no way Alex Colome is fetching a prospect in any organization's top three.  If the Sox can get anything in a club's top five, they should pull the trigger immediately.  Colome will get an arb raise to between $8.5 - $9 next year which aint cheap. And his numbers right now are completely unsustainable. His groundball percentage is down more than 10% and yet his BABIP against is .130! That's like, unbelievably, hysterically low - for comparison, among qualified pitchers (starters, so not a perfect comp but good luck sorting nonqualified pitching stats) Verlander leads at .163 and only 14 other guys are below .250.  And the flyball percentage suggests Colome's low babip isn't necessarily on the back of soft groundball contact. His ERA is 1.52 and his xFIP is 4.20.  His K/9 are also down significantly. His strand rate is at 90%.  The second half is not going to be kind to old Alex Colome.

I generally agree with the premise that Colome won't keep up his early season pace, but I don't think he has to in order command a significant return in a trade. He just needs to be the guy he was in Tampa, i.e. an all-star closer. And even if his numbers tick upward, he's still well on pace to be that guy.

For those who understandably don't like the Chapman deal as a comparable, how about the Angels' acquisition of Huston Street in 2014. In exchange for Street, the Padres got back the Angels' 1st and 4th ranked prospects, along with a pair of lesser prospects. Street, like Colome, was under control for an additional year.

[GB Warrior]

I would think it has to be someone more important to the Cubs roster than Zobrist, or else they would have moved (traded, waived DFA) the other player rather than lose Zobrist.  I could be wrong.

I really feel for Zobrist on this, even before Dish dropped that it was a teammate.  Seems like he is really struggling with this personal tragedy.  Poor guy.

Yeah, Addy banging the wife of a key player would be a real deal breaker. 

[MUBurrow]

Not that you are totally wrong here, but comparing a closers numbers to starters numbers seems to be, well incongruent.  Again, not that I disagree with your premise, but I would guess that the BABIP numbers for relievers, and especially closers are a bit different from that of starters.

No doubt you're right - I'm just too lazy/technologically inept to sort nonqualified pitching stats (I couldn't find by RP, so the only other option was to sort by guys without enough innings to qualify).  I'm sure that RPs have lower BABIP as a group due to having sharper and stronger stuff, but even allowing for a 50 pt reduction on average BABIP across the board, Colome's number would still stand out.  Heck, a 100 pt reduction would probably put Colome in the middle of the pack.

I generally agree with the premise that Colome won't keep up his early season pace, but I don't think he has to in order command a significant return in a trade. He just needs to be the guy he was in Tampa, i.e. an all-star closer. And even if his numbers tick upward, he's still well on pace to be that guy.

For those who understandably don't like the Chapman deal as a comparable, how about the Angels' acquisition of Huston Street in 2014. In exchange for Street, the Padres got back the Angels' 1st and 4th ranked prospects, along with a pair of lesser prospects. Street, like Colome, was under control for an additional year.

Oof, that Street trade is a good point. The contract is real similar to Street too, who was due $7M in his remaining year.

And you're right that if you squint hard enough, you can make out similarities between Colome's 2016 all star season and this year - though he's striking out fewer guys but just giving up less hits, which shows up in that BABIP against again, .280 in 2016 and .130 to date.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yeah, I'm sure he dropped his demands a day into the draft and that was the biggest factor in him signing.  The timing with it being nearly immediately after the draft pick forfeiture was just a small coincidence. 

And I didn't mean to pick on your precious cubbies.  Every team is stupid with that nonsense.  There are what, 5 or 6 teams that could have really used Kimbrel and all of them valued a late 1st or 2nd round pick more highly than a stud closer.  That doesn't seem to make much sense.  The Cubs traded a top 5 prospect in the game for a closer, and it was a huge reason they won their WS.  Now they (and all those other teams) weren't willing to give up a pick?  Teams that missed out on Kimbrel are going to end up trading more highly ranked prospects for closers than they would have sacrificed to sign him. Last season, it took 163 games to determine 2 divisions.  That 1 game a crappy 2nd or 3rd tier closer blew, could cost a team a division, or the playoffs.  So I hope they got good 2nd round talent.

Now the thing with Zobrist makes this make more sense, I didn't know that he was entertaining the idea of retiring nor did I know that the Cubs aren't paying him (obviously if he retires, they aren't paying him, but I guess I am still unclear, are they paying him now while he is on leave?  I would have assumed they are but this seems like maybe they are not?).

Again, he wasn't unsigned going into the season because of the pick, although it was a consideration.  It was because he was allegedly demanding 6 years and $100+ million and wasn't budging off of those demands.  Now he's signed for half the years and less than half the money of his original demands.  The Cubs signed Descalso and Brach for small deals and some other cheap bullpen arms around the margins. Kimbrel was never a consideration until recently. 

As for Zobrist, players usually aren't paid when they are on the restricted list.  The Cubs haven't said either way if they're paying him but it seems logical that might be how they were now able to afford Kimbrel this season.  Maybe that's not the case but it would make sense. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I believe the Blackhawks had a similar fairly recently as well.

There were rumors about Sharp and Kane's girlfriend but those were proven to be unfounded.  That's why you've gotta take any of this kind of stuff with a grain of salt. 

[Pakuni]

Oof, that Street trade is a good point. The contract is real similar to Street too, who was due $7M in his remaining year.

And you're right that if you squint hard enough, you can make out similarities between Colome's 2016 all star season and this year - though he's striking out fewer guys but just giving up less hits, which shows up in that BABIP against again, .280 in 2016 and .130 to date.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the Sox will get a couple of top 5 prospects for Colome, just that that's the kind of package that it should take for them to deal him. If they don't get that kind of an offer, there's really no need for them to trade him away ... and it sends a bad signal to the players and fans who've been told the rebuild is over and they're expected to contend for the playoffs in 2020.

[Cheeks]

He did that in the Daily Dose of Doom thread, so you can check that one off.

True, the people running around saying we have 12 years are absolutely absurd....glad we finally agree.

[buckchuckler]

Again, he wasn't unsigned going into the season because of the pick, although it was a consideration.  It was because he was allegedly demanding 6 years and $100+ million and wasn't budging off of those demands.  Now he's signed for half the years and less than half the money of his original demands.  The Cubs signed Descalso and Brach for small deals and some other cheap bullpen arms around the margins. Kimbrel was never a consideration until recently. 

He was asking for 6/100 in November.  I have to believe that those demands had come down over time as those were just ridiculous numbers.  And those demands seemed to have clearly pushed teams away.  But I would guess that in March, or April, he was much closer to what he signed for yesterday.  With the timing of when he signed (and I bet Keuchel signs in the next week or so), clearly the draft pick was a major concern for teams.  I think this is a major facet of the next CBA.

[buckchuckler]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the Sox will get a couple of top 5 prospects for Colome, just that that's the kind of package that it should take for them to deal him. If they don't get that kind of an offer, there's really no need for them to trade him away ... and it sends a bad signal to the players and fans who've been told the rebuild is over and they're expected to contend for the playoffs in 2020.

I am very interested to see how the 1 trade deadline will impact how things go this trading season.

[TallTitan34]

I am very interested to see how the 1 trade deadline will impact how things go this trading season.

This.  Hoping for a very hectic and exciting trade deadline this year. 

All but two teams in the NL are within 5 games of the playoffs so that should help as well. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

He was asking for 6/100 in November.  I have to believe that those demands had come down over time as those were just ridiculous numbers.  And those demands seemed to have clearly pushed teams away.  But I would guess that in March, or April, he was much closer to what he signed for yesterday.  With the timing of when he signed (and I bet Keuchel signs in the next week or so), clearly the draft pick was a major concern for teams.  I think this is a major facet of the next CBA.

Obviously the further the season progressed the more of a factor the draft compensation was.  Even if he dropped from his initial demand of 6/100 he would have absolutely been signed prior to the season if he was willing to accept 3/45 at that point, IMO.  Seems logical his demands in March we're still well above what he ultimately accepted. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This.  Hoping for a very hectic and exciting trade deadline this year. 

All but two teams in the NL are within 5 games of the playoffs so that should help as well. 

Actually if a bunch of teams are close, it incentivizes them not to trade.  What you would want is about half the league in contention, and the other half way out of contention. 

[buckchuckler]

Obviously the further the season progressed the more of a factor the draft compensation was.  Even if he dropped from his initial demand of 6/100 he would have absolutely been signed prior to the season if he was willing to accept 3/45 at that point, IMO.  Seems logical his demands in March we're still well above what he ultimately accepted.

Does it not seem logical that him signing 2 days after the draft compensation was no longer tied to him indicated that the draft compensation being tied to him was an impediment to his free agency?

Somehow I don't feel as though I am out on a limb here.

"With the draft just a few days away, it’s likely that free agents Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel will (finally) come off the board in the near future. Once the calendar flips from June 2 to June 3, clubs will no longer be forced to surrender a draft pick to sign either former All-Star."
from MLBTR. 
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/craig-kimbrel-rumors-braves-phillies-rays-twins.html

Obviously, the primary impediment to a deal with either hurler is money, but the loss of draft assets is absolutely baked into each team's calculus when it comes to deciding which free agents to target and how much to offer them. No team is going to pass on a free agent solely because of draft considerations, but the compensation system does create a potential barrier.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-mlb-draft-could-open-up-the-market-for-dallas-keuchel-and-craig-kimbrel/

Translation: Waiting until after the draft could be smart for the interested teams and for Keuchel and Kimbrel -- whose markets could get more competitive with the draft pick compensation and bonus pool money aspect removed from the equation.

https://www.sny.tv/yankees/news/why-free-agents-dallas-keuchel-and-craig-kimbrel-could-wait-until-after-june-5-to-sign/306716176

What we might have heard over the last few months is that teams are waiting until after the draft in June to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel so as to avoid losing a draft pick. Over the last decade, as the game has gotten younger and younger players have gotten cheaper relative to veterans, teams have placed greater emphasis on draft picks

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-team-by-team-draft-cost-of-signing-dallas-keuchel-or-craig-kimbrel/

Kimbrel went from no one wanting to sign him last week, to 4 or 5 teams making serious offers this week.  Pretty coincidental timing.

[TallTitan34]

Actually if a bunch of teams are close, it incentivizes them not to trade.  What you would want is about half the league in contention, and the other half way out of contention.

That's what the bottom half of the AL is for haha.

[JWags85]

There were rumors about Sharp and Kane's girlfriend but those were proven to be unfounded.  That's why you've gotta take any of this kind of stuff with a grain of salt.

I was pretty sure it was Sharp and Keith’s wife, which is why the situation was gnarly

[DegenerateDish]

I was pretty sure it was Sharp and Keith’s wife, which is why the situation was gnarly

Sharp likes his Chicago weather ladies as well.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Sharp likes his Chicago weather ladies as well.

And the wife of the equipment manager.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Apparently Sharp just can’t keep it in his pants.

[withoutbias]

bmg could have a straight up hd porn video of a chicago athlete banging a teammates wife, the wife and the teammate going through an ugly divorce, and hed still be claiming that unless you were in the room while it was being video taped theres no possible way you can prove that this wasnt some edited video and it really never happened.

he also thinks it was just coincidental timing that kimbrels price just happened to drop to where the cubs felt comfortable enough to sign him right when they could hang onto all their draft picks, and doesnt think kimbrels price had been at that point before teams would be able to hang onto their draft picks but teams didnt want to lose their draft picks so they didnt sign him.  because that would be very smart negotiations by a guy who was already willing to sit out 2 1/2 months of baseball.  "hey, right when you get a separate incentive to sign me now (dont have to lose your draft pick anymore) ill go ahead and cut my price in half for you!"

classic.

[wadesworld]

Quite an incredible coincidence that the two big name pitchers who were both willing to sit out the first two and a half months of the season both decided to lower their price to the point of teams finally paying them on the exact same day.

Has nothing to do with the draft picks these two teams saved though.  Kuechel and Kimbrel both definitely lowered their prices today.  They finally gave in.

[#UnleashSean]

bmg could have a straight up hd porn video of a chicago athlete banging a teammates wife, the wife and the teammate going through an ugly divorce, and hed still be claiming that unless you were in the room while it was being video taped theres no possible way you can prove that this wasnt some edited video and it really never happened.

Have you seen deep fakes? Cause thats definitely a thing that could happen at this point.