Know your opponent: Murray State

[Cheeks]

27-4

Played three teams that went to the NCAA tournament, went 1-2.  EDIT, I read Ken Pom wrong.


88-93  Auburn   L
66-79  Belmont   L
77-65  Belmont  W

41st ranked offense, 81st ranked defense

Experience ranked 234th  (Marquette ranked 217th). 

[SaveOD238]

27-4

Played four teams that went to the NCAA tournament and lost to all of them.

72-78  Alabama
88-93  Auburn
66-79  Belmont
68-88 Jacksonville State

41st ranked offense, 81st ranked defense

Experience ranked 234th  (Marquette ranked 217th).

They got Belmont back in the conference title game.

Still not impressive.

[Anti-Dentite]

I remember this one time in Louisville...

[tower912]

Ja is even more of a one man team than Markus.   Over 80 ppg.   Some forwards with size.       

[nyg]

I'll go with the team that played Nova, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Xavier, etc. over the team that plays UT-Martin, Austin Peay, Morehead St., SIU_Edwardsville, Jacksonville St., etc. 

A loss would be a disappointment, so we got this one.  Hope it is a national TV game.  And of course Clark Kellogg just picked MS.  Good luck guys.......

[NickelDimer]

Guaranteed win? No. Strikes fear in me? Nah

[damuts222]

They have had issues with turnovers, including Ja (so have we). He needs to carry them if they are to win. It seems he has trouble switching on screens, which is good for us. We need to make him work on defense, whether thats Sacar driving or Markus.

His turnover numbers are not good. Averages over 5 per game. Yet, Markus averages 4. Play smart defense when he drives, make Ja work on defense and we win.

[jesmu84]

#4 in 3 point defense

[damuts222]

We should be putting their 6’-9” 280 pound center in pick and roll all day. Markus will eat then alive..provides he heals

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Morant is a top 3 pick in the draft. Is Sacar quick enough to defend him? Might put up 30 on Markus if he defends him.

[LloydsLegs]

#4 in 3 point defense

See above.  Who have they played?  Much different then top 10 3 point D from top 5 conf with a top 30 SOS.

Helps explain 3 point D. 

[NorthernDancerColt]

We should be putting their 6’-9” 280 pound center in pick and roll all day. Markus will eat then alive..provides he heals

More Markus-as-carnivorous-killer talk. The Butler center is still in the ICU. Care to STEP BACK from these comments?

[mu_hilltopper]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/cK_I74A0wfI" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/cK_I74A0wfI</a>

[MULaw14]

1. Interesting we were the top 5 seed and got locations in Connecticut and (potentially) Anaheim. Don’t love all that traveling. Weak.

2. Playing a 12 seed is normally okay, except their best player, Ja Morant, is gonna be a top 3 pick in the draft next year 😔

3. Also bad... Murray St. has another all conference player besides Ja, and the conference defensive player of year, and a frosh on the conference freshmen team, and a newcomer on the all conference newcomer team (that’s a thing apparently).

4. The good... somehow they were worst in their conference in points allowed, and also had the worst defensive FG% against 2’s and 3’s... Markus and the Hauser brothers should exploit that all day.

5. Also (potentially good), Sacar is a great perimeter defender, and his back up to defend the best perimeter guy (Bailey) is 6’8. Let’s see how Ja does with that at 6’3.

6. The best teams they played were Auburn and Alabama, lost to both. Best win was against Belmont. Not scared of that compared to our wins.

7. Ja averages more turnovers per game than Markus.

8. We got this.

[jesmu84]

https://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/reags-reactions-what-the-hell-to-make-of-the-bracket

– Whatever you do, don’t go to school, don’t go to work, stay up, whatever it takes to watch Markus Howard vs Ja Morant. That’s going to be the best individual matchup of the 1st round and both dudes can go drop 50. Very, VERY here for this.

[MUEng92]

Ja is even more of a one man team than Markus.   Over 80 ppg.   Some forwards with size.     

Holy crap. Ja scores over 80 ppg?

[tower912]

Holy crap. Ja scores over 80 ppg?

Ha.   Murray St averages over 80 ppg.   Oops.   

[brewcity77]

Two numbers really stand out when it comes to Murray State. The first is their #5th ranked 2PFG% offense & the second is their 4th ranked 3PFG% defense. First...the offense.

I think it's a bit of a fraud. Maybe that's an overstatement, but they aren't as good from 2 as their statistics indicate. The Racers have played 29 games against D1 opponents this year. Just 6 of those games came against teams ranked in the top-100 of 2PFG% defense & zero were against teams in the top-40 (MU is 19th). In those 6 games, they went 4-2 with wins over kenpom #150 Southern Illinois & #319 Jackson State that can be thrown away because they are effectively buy level competition. The other opponents they played were against #54 Belmont & #113 Jacksonville State, twice each, & they split those games. As they only lost 4 games all year, I think it's significant that half those losses came against teams with top-100 2PFG% defense.

Another factor worth noting: of their 25 D1 wins, 14 came against teams with sub-250 rankings in 2PFG% defense. So yes, they bombed on people inside, but the vast majority of the time that was against teams that were already really bad at defending the interior. So they were able to overinflate their 2PFG% offense by beating up on teams that are specifically bad at stopping what they want to do, yet when they played teams that had a similar talent level, they were likely as not to lose the game.

They also lost against Alabama & Auburn, the only two high-majors they faced. So good 2PFG% defense & high-major talent seem to be common threads in beating the Racers. Marquette is the first team they will see all season that has both of those two things. Theo & Ed are unlike anything they have faced this season. That alone doesn't guarantee victory, but knowing their offensive prowess isn't as good as it looks at a glance & our defensive strength plays perfectly against that aspect of their game is a reason to be confident.

Their excellent three-point shooting defense is probably a bit more accurate. They faced an equal number of top-100 3PFG% teams as they did sub-250 teams (10 each). However they only faced one team that was in the top-40, which was the loss to 27th ranked (38.1%) Auburn. We are ranked higher at 9th (39.3%) than the Tigers, so expect that to be more of a challenge than they are used to.

None of this is to say Murray State can't win the game. When you have a player like Ja Morant that can go off for 40 any given night, and teams don't go 25-4 against D1 opponents for no reason regardless the level of competition. But I believe it is an indisputable fact that Murray State has not faced a team that has the combination of our level of talent & ability to specifically attack their greatest strengths. This is a very winnable game & I think those picking this to be their 12/5 upset special are making a mistake, as are those hammering Murray State +4.5 because I feel we have a good chance to both win & cover.

[Herman Cain]

I am excited about this match up. Looking forward to watching Ja and his buddies test their skills against our guys. I prefer that we play solid teams and win as I feel it builds momentum. Should be a hard fought down to the wire game. 

[nyg]

Two numbers really stand out when it comes to Murray State. The first is their #5th ranked 2PFG% offense & the second is their 4th ranked 3PFG% defense. First...the offense.

I think it's a bit of a fraud. Maybe that's an overstatement, but they aren't as good from 2 as their statistics indicate. The Racers have played 29 games against D1 opponents this year. Just 6 of those games came against teams ranked in the top-100 of 2PFG% defense & zero were against teams in the top-40 (MU is 19th). In those 6 games, they went 4-2 with wins over kenpom #150 Southern Illinois & #319 Jackson State that can be thrown away because they are effectively buy level competition. The other opponents they played were against #54 Belmont & #113 Jacksonville State, twice each, & they split those games. As they only lost 4 games all year, I think it's significant that half those losses came against teams with top-100 2PFG% defense.

Another factor worth noting: of their 25 D1 wins, 14 came against teams with sub-250 rankings in 2PFG% defense. So yes, they bombed on people inside, but the vast majority of the time that was against teams that were already really bad at defending the interior. So they were able to overinflate their 2PFG% offense by beating up on teams that are specifically bad at stopping what they want to do, yet when they played teams that had a similar talent level, they were likely as not to lose the game.

They also lost against Alabama & Auburn, the only two high-majors they faced. So good 2PFG% defense & high-major talent seem to be common threads in beating the Racers. Marquette is the first team they will see all season that has both of those two things. Theo & Ed are unlike anything they have faced this season. That alone doesn't guarantee victory, but knowing their offensive prowess isn't as good as it looks at a glance & our defensive strength plays perfectly against that aspect of their game is a reason to be confident.

Their excellent three-point shooting defense is probably a bit more accurate. They faced an equal number of top-100 3PFG% teams as they did sub-250 teams (10 each). However they only faced one team that was in the top-40, which was the loss to 27th ranked (38.1%) Auburn. We are ranked higher at 9th (39.3%) than the Tigers, so expect that to be more of a challenge than they are used to.

None of this is to say Murray State can't win the game. When you have a player like Ja Morant that can go off for 40 any given night, and teams don't go 25-4 against D1 opponents for no reason regardless the level of competition. But I believe it is an indisputable fact that Murray State has not faced a team that has the combination of our level of talent & ability to specifically attack their greatest strengths. This is a very winnable game & I think those picking this to be their 12/5 upset special are making a mistake, as are those hammering Murray State +4.5 because I feel we have a good chance to both win & cover.

Very good.  Bottom line they played poor quality opponents in a poor quality conference.  Not even close to any BE teams.

Morant will try to go off, probably take 25 to 30 shots.  He likes to drive and get fouls, so MU must be prepared big time for that.  Sacar not working on him, put someone else like Cain, that don’t work, someone else and adjust. 

[HowardsWorld]

Murray St. can suck my @$$

[Cheeks]

Two numbers really stand out when it comes to Murray State. The first is their #5th ranked 2PFG% offense & the second is their 4th ranked 3PFG% defense. First...the offense.

This is good stuff, but my only question is on the 2PFG% and facing nothing like John and Morrow. Doesn't Auburn or Alabama have a couple of big, shot blocking type guys?

[mu_hilltopper]

Any chance MU can get Ja Morant into foul trouble?  Who will he be defending?

[MU82]

MU lose to Murray State?

Ja gotta be kiddin' me!

We win, we cover, we advance.

Next!

[HowardsWorld]

Ja Morant is the leading scorer but looks to only average 5 3 pt attempts per game. That must me he drives to the hoop for the majority of the shots. That also means that Theo John will most likely get in foul trouble. Maybe MU can attempt to play zone and see if they can beat them for the outside.