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Author Topic: Know your opponent: Murray State  (Read 10790 times)

Cheeks

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Know your opponent: Murray State
« on: March 17, 2019, 05:48:30 PM »
27-4

Played three teams that went to the NCAA tournament, went 1-2.  EDIT, I read Ken Pom wrong.


88-93  Auburn   L
66-79  Belmont   L
77-65  Belmont  W

41st ranked offense, 81st ranked defense

Experience ranked 234th  (Marquette ranked 217th). 
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 05:53:34 PM by Cheeks »
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

SaveOD238

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2019, 05:49:27 PM »
27-4

Played four teams that went to the NCAA tournament and lost to all of them.

72-78  Alabama
88-93  Auburn
66-79  Belmont
68-88 Jacksonville State

41st ranked offense, 81st ranked defense

Experience ranked 234th  (Marquette ranked 217th).

They got Belmont back in the conference title game.

Still not impressive.

Anti-Dentite

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2019, 05:49:42 PM »
I remember this one time in Louisville...
You know the difference between a dentist and a sadist, don't you? Newer magazines.

tower912

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2019, 05:50:30 PM »
Ja is even more of a one man team than Markus.   Over 80 ppg.   Some forwards with size.       
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

nyg

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2019, 05:56:48 PM »
I'll go with the team that played Nova, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Xavier, etc. over the team that plays UT-Martin, Austin Peay, Morehead St., SIU_Edwardsville, Jacksonville St., etc. 

A loss would be a disappointment, so we got this one.  Hope it is a national TV game.  And of course Clark Kellogg just picked MS.  Good luck guys.......

NickelDimer

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2019, 05:58:36 PM »
Guaranteed win? No. Strikes fear in me? Nah
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damuts222

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2019, 06:05:36 PM »
They have had issues with turnovers, including Ja (so have we). He needs to carry them if they are to win. It seems he has trouble switching on screens, which is good for us. We need to make him work on defense, whether thats Sacar driving or Markus.

His turnover numbers are not good. Averages over 5 per game. Yet, Markus averages 4. Play smart defense when he drives, make Ja work on defense and we win.
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jesmu84

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2019, 06:14:36 PM »
#4 in 3 point defense

damuts222

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2019, 06:21:44 PM »
We should be putting their 6’-9” 280 pound center in pick and roll all day. Markus will eat then alive..provides he heals
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Otule's Glass Eye

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2019, 06:32:52 PM »
Morant is a top 3 pick in the draft. Is Sacar quick enough to defend him? Might put up 30 on Markus if he defends him.

LloydsLegs

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2019, 06:37:01 PM »
#4 in 3 point defense

See above.  Who have they played?  Much different then top 10 3 point D from top 5 conf with a top 30 SOS.

Helps explain 3 point D. 

NorthernDancerColt

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2019, 07:43:23 PM »
We should be putting their 6’-9” 280 pound center in pick and roll all day. Markus will eat then alive..provides he heals

More Markus-as-carnivorous-killer talk. The Butler center is still in the ICU. Care to STEP BACK from these comments?
Zenyatta has a lot....a lot... of ground to make up. She gets there from here she’d be a super horse......what’s this.....Zenyatta hooked to the grandstand side....Zenyatta flying on the outside....this....is...un-belieeeeeevable!...looked impossible at the top of the stretch...

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2019, 07:59:38 PM »
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/cK_I74A0wfI" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/cK_I74A0wfI</a>

MULaw14

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2019, 08:10:32 PM »
1. Interesting we were the top 5 seed and got locations in Connecticut and (potentially) Anaheim. Don’t love all that traveling. Weak.

2. Playing a 12 seed is normally okay, except their best player, Ja Morant, is gonna be a top 3 pick in the draft next year 😔

3. Also bad... Murray St. has another all conference player besides Ja, and the conference defensive player of year, and a frosh on the conference freshmen team, and a newcomer on the all conference newcomer team (that’s a thing apparently).

4. The good... somehow they were worst in their conference in points allowed, and also had the worst defensive FG% against 2’s and 3’s... Markus and the Hauser brothers should exploit that all day.

5. Also (potentially good), Sacar is a great perimeter defender, and his back up to defend the best perimeter guy (Bailey) is 6’8. Let’s see how Ja does with that at 6’3.

6. The best teams they played were Auburn and Alabama, lost to both. Best win was against Belmont. Not scared of that compared to our wins.

7. Ja averages more turnovers per game than Markus.

8. We got this.

jesmu84

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2019, 08:19:34 PM »
https://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/reags-reactions-what-the-hell-to-make-of-the-bracket

Quote
– Whatever you do, don’t go to school, don’t go to work, stay up, whatever it takes to watch Markus Howard vs Ja Morant. That’s going to be the best individual matchup of the 1st round and both dudes can go drop 50. Very, VERY here for this.

MUEng92

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2019, 08:40:13 PM »
Ja is even more of a one man team than Markus.   Over 80 ppg.   Some forwards with size.     
Holy crap. Ja scores over 80 ppg?

tower912

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2019, 08:44:47 PM »
Holy crap. Ja scores over 80 ppg?
Ha.   Murray St averages over 80 ppg.   Oops.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

brewcity77

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2019, 08:53:52 PM »
Two numbers really stand out when it comes to Murray State. The first is their #5th ranked 2PFG% offense & the second is their 4th ranked 3PFG% defense. First...the offense.

I think it's a bit of a fraud. Maybe that's an overstatement, but they aren't as good from 2 as their statistics indicate. The Racers have played 29 games against D1 opponents this year. Just 6 of those games came against teams ranked in the top-100 of 2PFG% defense & zero were against teams in the top-40 (MU is 19th). In those 6 games, they went 4-2 with wins over kenpom #150 Southern Illinois & #319 Jackson State that can be thrown away because they are effectively buy level competition. The other opponents they played were against #54 Belmont & #113 Jacksonville State, twice each, & they split those games. As they only lost 4 games all year, I think it's significant that half those losses came against teams with top-100 2PFG% defense.

Another factor worth noting: of their 25 D1 wins, 14 came against teams with sub-250 rankings in 2PFG% defense. So yes, they bombed on people inside, but the vast majority of the time that was against teams that were already really bad at defending the interior. So they were able to overinflate their 2PFG% offense by beating up on teams that are specifically bad at stopping what they want to do, yet when they played teams that had a similar talent level, they were likely as not to lose the game.

They also lost against Alabama & Auburn, the only two high-majors they faced. So good 2PFG% defense & high-major talent seem to be common threads in beating the Racers. Marquette is the first team they will see all season that has both of those two things. Theo & Ed are unlike anything they have faced this season. That alone doesn't guarantee victory, but knowing their offensive prowess isn't as good as it looks at a glance & our defensive strength plays perfectly against that aspect of their game is a reason to be confident.

Their excellent three-point shooting defense is probably a bit more accurate. They faced an equal number of top-100 3PFG% teams as they did sub-250 teams (10 each). However they only faced one team that was in the top-40, which was the loss to 27th ranked (38.1%) Auburn. We are ranked higher at 9th (39.3%) than the Tigers, so expect that to be more of a challenge than they are used to.

None of this is to say Murray State can't win the game. When you have a player like Ja Morant that can go off for 40 any given night, and teams don't go 25-4 against D1 opponents for no reason regardless the level of competition. But I believe it is an indisputable fact that Murray State has not faced a team that has the combination of our level of talent & ability to specifically attack their greatest strengths. This is a very winnable game & I think those picking this to be their 12/5 upset special are making a mistake, as are those hammering Murray State +4.5 because I feel we have a good chance to both win & cover.
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Herman Cain

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2019, 09:03:47 PM »
I am excited about this match up. Looking forward to watching Ja and his buddies test their skills against our guys. I prefer that we play solid teams and win as I feel it builds momentum. Should be a hard fought down to the wire game. 
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nyg

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2019, 09:27:47 PM »
Two numbers really stand out when it comes to Murray State. The first is their #5th ranked 2PFG% offense & the second is their 4th ranked 3PFG% defense. First...the offense.

I think it's a bit of a fraud. Maybe that's an overstatement, but they aren't as good from 2 as their statistics indicate. The Racers have played 29 games against D1 opponents this year. Just 6 of those games came against teams ranked in the top-100 of 2PFG% defense & zero were against teams in the top-40 (MU is 19th). In those 6 games, they went 4-2 with wins over kenpom #150 Southern Illinois & #319 Jackson State that can be thrown away because they are effectively buy level competition. The other opponents they played were against #54 Belmont & #113 Jacksonville State, twice each, & they split those games. As they only lost 4 games all year, I think it's significant that half those losses came against teams with top-100 2PFG% defense.

Another factor worth noting: of their 25 D1 wins, 14 came against teams with sub-250 rankings in 2PFG% defense. So yes, they bombed on people inside, but the vast majority of the time that was against teams that were already really bad at defending the interior. So they were able to overinflate their 2PFG% offense by beating up on teams that are specifically bad at stopping what they want to do, yet when they played teams that had a similar talent level, they were likely as not to lose the game.

They also lost against Alabama & Auburn, the only two high-majors they faced. So good 2PFG% defense & high-major talent seem to be common threads in beating the Racers. Marquette is the first team they will see all season that has both of those two things. Theo & Ed are unlike anything they have faced this season. That alone doesn't guarantee victory, but knowing their offensive prowess isn't as good as it looks at a glance & our defensive strength plays perfectly against that aspect of their game is a reason to be confident.

Their excellent three-point shooting defense is probably a bit more accurate. They faced an equal number of top-100 3PFG% teams as they did sub-250 teams (10 each). However they only faced one team that was in the top-40, which was the loss to 27th ranked (38.1%) Auburn. We are ranked higher at 9th (39.3%) than the Tigers, so expect that to be more of a challenge than they are used to.

None of this is to say Murray State can't win the game. When you have a player like Ja Morant that can go off for 40 any given night, and teams don't go 25-4 against D1 opponents for no reason regardless the level of competition. But I believe it is an indisputable fact that Murray State has not faced a team that has the combination of our level of talent & ability to specifically attack their greatest strengths. This is a very winnable game & I think those picking this to be their 12/5 upset special are making a mistake, as are those hammering Murray State +4.5 because I feel we have a good chance to both win & cover.

Very good.  Bottom line they played poor quality opponents in a poor quality conference.  Not even close to any BE teams.

Morant will try to go off, probably take 25 to 30 shots.  He likes to drive and get fouls, so MU must be prepared big time for that.  Sacar not working on him, put someone else like Cain, that don’t work, someone else and adjust. 

HowardsWorld

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2019, 09:37:42 PM »
Murray St. can suck my @$$

Cheeks

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2019, 09:38:06 PM »
Two numbers really stand out when it comes to Murray State. The first is their #5th ranked 2PFG% offense & the second is their 4th ranked 3PFG% defense. First...the offense.


This is good stuff, but my only question is on the 2PFG% and facing nothing like John and Morrow. Doesn't Auburn or Alabama have a couple of big, shot blocking type guys?
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2019, 10:06:03 PM »
Any chance MU can get Ja Morant into foul trouble?  Who will he be defending?

MU82

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2019, 10:11:50 PM »
MU lose to Murray State?

Ja gotta be kiddin' me!

We win, we cover, we advance.

Next!
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HowardsWorld

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #24 on: March 17, 2019, 10:18:10 PM »
Ja Morant is the leading scorer but looks to only average 5 3 pt attempts per game. That must me he drives to the hoop for the majority of the shots. That also means that Theo John will most likely get in foul trouble. Maybe MU can attempt to play zone and see if they can beat them for the outside.

MU82

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2019, 10:21:45 PM »
Ja Morant is the leading scorer but looks to only average 5 3 pt attempts per game. That must me he drives to the hoop for the majority of the shots. That also means that Theo John will most likely get in foul trouble. Maybe MU can attempt to play zone and see if they can beat them for the outside.

Good thing we have Morrow, who actually has played better than Theo the last month or more. And in a pinch, our third-string 5 has started dozens of games for us, including an NCAA tourney game.
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brewcity77

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2019, 10:36:22 PM »
This is good stuff, but my only question is on the 2PFG% and facing nothing like John and Morrow. Doesn't Auburn or Alabama have a couple of big, shot blocking type guys?

Not with the kind of block rate Theo has. And as a team, they don't come remotely close to Marquette's defensive efficiency inside the arc.
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NorthernDancerColt

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2019, 10:37:36 PM »
Ja Morant is the leading scorer but looks to only average 5 3 pt attempts per game. That must me he drives to the hoop for the majority of the shots. That also means that Theo John will most likely get in foul trouble. Maybe MU can attempt to play zone and see if they can beat them for the outside.

  Haven’t seen him play, but everything I’m reading defines him as playing with utter abandon and athleticism at all times. Averaging 10 assists as well!!  Markus is less frenetic, more surgical.

   I agree that this is the type of team that can get our bigs in foul trouble. I would love to see Matt start as the anchor in a zone. Ed then sets the tone inside for a few minutes. The game see-saws through the first 8 minutes, at which point Theo enters to permanently padlock the interior and sends a few souvenirs into the Connecticut twilight. The MU contingent roars to life as Sacar gathers the rock and windmills right in the face of a haplessly gelded Racer pony. A punter in the back of the nearest William Hill yells, “I’ll take it from here.”
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ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2019, 11:07:35 PM »
Any chance MU can get Ja Morant into foul trouble?  Who will he be defending?

Guessing it will be Sacar. Doubt they want to task him with chasing around Howard all day and risk him getting tired early, nowhere near big enough to guard the Hausers, they would post him up with that turnaround jumper all day.

Everyone is talking about Ja vs. Markus. I get it, dudes that can put up 40 in a hurry. But the Hausers should have a field day against Murray St.

CountryRoads

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2019, 11:15:08 PM »
Ja Morant is the leading scorer but looks to only average 5 3 pt attempts per game. That must me he drives to the hoop for the majority of the shots. That also means that Theo John will most likely get in foul trouble. Maybe MU can attempt to play zone and see if they can beat them for the outside.

I was watching some of them in their tournament and I think he’s shot something like 300 free throws this year, which comes out to about 10 a game. Foul trouble could be an issue. 

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2019, 11:20:27 PM »
I was watching some of them in their tournament and I think he’s shot something like 300 free throws this year, which comes out to about 10 a game. Foul trouble could be an issue.

Good thing we have Sacar, Bailey, Cain, Sam in a pinch, and Theo, Ed and Matt in the middle.

CountryRoads

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2019, 11:24:40 PM »
Good thing we have Sacar, Bailey, Cain, Sam in a pinch, and Theo, Ed and Matt in the middle.

Yup. Don’t think it’s a bad matchup for us. Think it will be a tense game but have a good chance to advance at least.

wade_county37

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #32 on: March 18, 2019, 12:51:41 AM »
Last time we faced them in the tourney we had BE POY Jae Crowder. This time we have BE POY Markus Howard... let's hope they've recovered from the SHU debacle.

Let's go Marquette!!!

shoothoops

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #33 on: March 18, 2019, 08:09:34 AM »
Ja is even more of a one man team than Markus.   Over 80 ppg.   Some forwards with size.     

Morant is the first college player to average 20 points and 10 assists in a season, since assists became a stat in 1983-1984.

Scoring machine. Assist machine.

NickelDimer

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2019, 08:15:28 AM »
If Morant is single handedly destroying our D ala Ponds and Powell, can we actually expect Wojo to double him and force the ball out of his hands?
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nyg

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2019, 08:38:06 AM »
Morant is the first college player to average 20 points and 10 assists in a season, since assists became a stat in 1983-1984.

Scoring machine. Assist machine.

Again, against the likes of UT-Martin, Austin Peay, Jacksonville St., Morehead St., SIU-Edwardsville, etc.  Not even close to BE teams.  Then again, he might dump 40 on MU.......  It will be interesting


Cheeks

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #36 on: March 18, 2019, 08:40:04 AM »
If Morant is single handedly destroying our D ala Ponds and Powell, can we actually expect Wojo to double him and force the ball out of his hands?

I would think he has been doubled much of his conference games as they know him best, and based on his very high assist rate it has done very little good.
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Marcus92

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #37 on: March 18, 2019, 08:42:55 AM »
Morant can be neutralized.

In Murray State's 78-72 loss against Alabama (ranked #59 by KenPom), Morant scored 38 points on 16-29 shooting -- but he had 10 turnovers and the rest of the team shot just 13-35.

In the 93-88 loss to #13 Auburn, Morant and company put up 1.21 points per possession   -- but gave up 1.27 points per possession. That includes allowing 67.7% on two-point attempts and 13 threes.

In the 79-66 loss to #54 Belmont, Morant was just 5-19 from the field and nobody else could pick up the slack.

Morant's performance against teams like #309 ranked Southern Missouri state -- 23 points, 8-10 on 2-pointers, 12 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals -- doesn't impress me much. 
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NickelDimer

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #38 on: March 18, 2019, 08:46:10 AM »
I would think he has been doubled much of his conference games as they know him best, and based on his very high assist rate it has done very little good.
I’d take my chances throwing multiple bodies at him and force his teammates to score. I think he’ll kill our m2m and to make it worse he’s likely to get the star treatment and I could see him quickly getting Sacar, Theo etc into foul trouble. I’d also like to see some zone against this team
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tower912

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #39 on: March 18, 2019, 08:48:27 AM »
I’d take my chances throwing multiple bodies at him and force his teammates to score. I think he’ll kill our m2m and to make it worse he’s likely to get the star treatment and I could see him quickly getting Sacar, Theo etc into foul trouble. I’d also like to see some zone against this team

Because MU has played 0 zone this year, so Murray State won't have a scouting report for it. 
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HowardsWorld

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #40 on: March 18, 2019, 08:48:44 AM »
I’d take my chances throwing multiple bodies at him and force his teammates to score. I think he’ll kill our m2m and to make it worse he’s likely to get the star treatment and I could see him quickly getting Sacar, Theo etc into foul trouble. I’d also like to see some zone against this team

Wojo will make adjustments to the D in the second half. If he is murdering them on layups and the bigs getting in foul trouble dont be surprised to see them switch to 3-2 zone to nutrilize him.

MU82

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #41 on: March 18, 2019, 08:55:41 AM »
Morant can be neutralized.

In Murray State's 78-72 loss against Alabama (ranked #59 by KenPom), Morant scored 38 points on 16-29 shooting -- but he had 10 turnovers and the rest of the team shot just 13-35.

In the 93-88 loss to #13 Auburn, Morant and company put up 1.21 points per possession   -- but gave up 1.27 points per possession. That includes allowing 67.7% on two-point attempts and 13 threes.

In the 79-66 loss to #54 Belmont, Morant was just 5-19 from the field and nobody else could pick up the slack.

Morant's performance against teams like #309 ranked Southern Missouri state -- 23 points, 8-10 on 2-pointers, 12 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals -- doesn't impress me much.

Yeah, on the one hand I don't want to disrespect him. NBA scouts see him as a future star, and they don't say that about guys who can't play. (Even if it turns out they can't play, as does happen sometimes with high draft picks.)

On the other hand, let's see how he and his teammates do against a good all-around team with a good defense, a rim protector, and several offensive weapons.

This is the kind of matchup that the NCAA tourney should be about. I'm excited about it!
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #42 on: March 18, 2019, 08:55:58 AM »
A lot of talk about trying a zone, and I just don't see it.  We've faced a lot of talented guards this season (Langford, Massinburg, Ponds, Powell, Booth) and haven't zoned any of them. I realize that Ja is in another category, but I don't think we can get a zone ready in three days.  Everybody may know the basics, but you get better by actually using it in the season, which we haven't.  Anything other than 40 minutes of mtm would be a major surprise IMO.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2019, 09:00:11 AM »
Morant turns the ball over at a higher rate than Markus and is by and large a one man wrecking crew, but he also has to guard someone. Logic says he has to guard Markus but then Markus can run him all over the court. If he guards Sacar, look for Sacar to drive and dish a lot to either get Morant in foul trouble and/or tired.

I have no idea why we are so obsessed with zone around here. Unless we get in very serious foul trouble there is no way we are going zone. Our M2M will be fine against Murray State, Morant will get his but as long as we play disciplined we can limit everyone else and going zone would negate our rebounding advantage on the defensive end. Biggest weakness we have in M2M is PnR and Murray State just isn't good at that, which means Morant is creating at the top for the most part and Murray State won't be pulling Theo/Ed out of the lane, should allow our shot blockers to feast. We should not adjust to Murray State unless they prove they can repeatedly beat our M2M....make them adjust to us.
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MarquetteDano

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2019, 09:04:14 AM »
A lot of talk about trying a zone, and I just don't see it.  We've faced a lot of talented guards this season (Langford, Massinburg, Ponds, Powell, Booth) and haven't zoned any of them. I realize that Ja is in another category, but I don't think we can get a zone ready in three days.  Everybody may know the basics, but you get better by actually using it in the season, which we haven't.  Anything other than 40 minutes of mtm would be a major surprise IMO.

And the other problem is that the Racers are a pretty good offensive rebounding team.  We play zone and we could give up a lot of offensive rebounds.  Maybe Wojo plays it as a surprise for a play or two but I don't expect to see zone a lot.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #45 on: March 18, 2019, 09:04:38 AM »
Morant turns the ball over at a higher rate than Markus and is by and large a one man wrecking crew, but he also has to guard someone. Logic says he has to guard Markus but then Markus can run him all over the court. If he guards Sacar, look for Sacar to drive and dish a lot to either get Morant in foul trouble and/or tired.

I have no idea why we are so obsessed with zone around here. Unless we get in very serious foul trouble there is no way we are going zone. Our M2M will be fine against Murray State, Morant will get his but as long as we play disciplined we can limit everyone else and going zone would negate our rebounding advantage on the defensive end. Biggest weakness we have in M2M is PnR and Murray State just isn't good at that, which means Morant is creating at the top for the most part and Murray State won't be pulling Theo/Ed out of the lane, should allow our shot blockers to feast. We should not adjust to Murray State unless they prove they can repeatedly beat our M2M....make them adjust to us.

I for one said zone because if Ja Morant does get into the lane and beat someone there will be another line of defense there to cover up quicker than. We all know how Theo plays defense and if he is not set and goes straight up he is going to be called for a foul every single time.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #46 on: March 18, 2019, 09:10:20 AM »
And the other problem is that the Racers are a pretty good offensive rebounding team.  We play zone and we could give up a lot of offensive rebounds.  Maybe Wojo plays it as a surprise for a play or two but I don't expect to see zone a lot.

I know VERY little about MS. But from what I’m reading, if I’m Wojo, (which I’m not thankfully cause MU would be 1-30).
Every 10-15 possessions I throw out zone and full court pressure.

Keep MS thinking and a bit off balance.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #47 on: March 18, 2019, 09:11:38 AM »
I for one said zone because if Ja Morant does get into the lane and beat someone there will be another line of defense there to cover up quicker than. We all know how Theo plays defense and if he is not set and goes straight up he is going to be called for a foul every single time.

A) playing man or zone that's going to be true so no difference
2) playing zone, especially when we aren't use to it, leaves seams that Morant can exploit with pull ups before he gets to the second line so it actually plays into his advantage
III) These aren't going to be Big East officials, we're going to be fine.
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #48 on: March 18, 2019, 09:23:58 AM »
A) playing man or zone that's going to be true so no difference
2) playing zone, especially when we aren't use to it, leaves seams that Morant can exploit with pull ups before he gets to the second line so it actually plays into his advantage
III) These aren't going to be Big East officials, we're going to be fine.

Are you sure about that?

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2019, 09:27:00 AM »
Morant can be neutralized.

In Murray State's 78-72 loss against Alabama (ranked #59 by KenPom), Morant scored 38 points on 16-29 shooting -- but he had 10 turnovers and the rest of the team shot just 13-35.

In the 93-88 loss to #13 Auburn, Morant and company put up 1.21 points per possession   -- but gave up 1.27 points per possession. That includes allowing 67.7% on two-point attempts and 13 threes.

In the 79-66 loss to #54 Belmont, Morant was just 5-19 from the field and nobody else could pick up the slack.

Morant's performance against teams like #309 ranked Southern Missouri state -- 23 points, 8-10 on 2-pointers, 12 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals -- doesn't impress me much.

Morant rolled his ankle in the opening minutes of the Belmont game. On the floor in pain, he sat a little while but played visibly injured the rest of the game.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #50 on: March 18, 2019, 09:39:57 AM »
I for one said zone because if Ja Morant does get into the lane and beat someone there will be another line of defense there to cover up quicker than. We all know how Theo plays defense and if he is not set and goes straight up he is going to be called for a foul every single time.

Didn't we just see Wojo solve this against St. John's without going zone?

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #51 on: March 18, 2019, 09:59:45 AM »
Murray Head - One Night in Bangkok

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #52 on: March 18, 2019, 10:01:52 AM »
Are you sure about that?

Yes, by rule an officiating crew can't be 100% from the conference that one of the teams playing is from. Now officials ref for multiple conferences but the crew cannot be a Big East crew by definition.
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Eldon

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #53 on: March 18, 2019, 10:26:04 AM »
Didn't we just see Wojo solve this against St. John's without going zone?

#jellyLegs

Bocephys

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #54 on: March 18, 2019, 10:26:41 AM »
Yes, by rule an officiating crew can't be 100% from the conference that one of the teams playing is from. Now officials ref for multiple conferences but the crew cannot be a Big East crew by definition.

How does that work since refs work for multiple conferences throughout the season?

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #55 on: March 18, 2019, 10:27:52 AM »
#crapshoot

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #56 on: March 18, 2019, 10:28:24 AM »
This sounds like an opportunity for Sacar to emulate Jimmy Butler against X.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #57 on: March 18, 2019, 10:33:05 AM »
One major thing MU has to do is get back on defense and protect against transition lobs.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #58 on: March 18, 2019, 10:39:38 AM »
How does that work since refs work for multiple conferences throughout the season?

The refs are put into pools for each pod site and they are assigned to games in such a way as the refs assigned to a game aren't all affiliated with one conference or the other.
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Marcus92

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #59 on: March 18, 2019, 10:58:20 AM »
This sounds like an opportunity for Sacar to emulate Jimmy Butler against X

I was thinking the exact same thing. Xavier junior point guard Tu Holloway came into our first-round 2011 NCAA matchup garnering a ton of hype -- scoring 20 ppg as the A-10 player of the year. MU held him to 5 points on 1-13 shooting with 5 turnovers on the way to a 66-55 win.

Tu? Ja? How many point guards are there with two-letter first names in all of college basketball? This can't be a mere coincidence.
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #60 on: March 18, 2019, 11:08:26 AM »
I was thinking the exact same thing. Xavier junior point guard Tu Holloway came into our first-round 2011 NCAA matchup garnering a ton of hype -- scoring 20 ppg as the A-10 player of the year. MU held him to 5 points on 1-13 shooting with 5 turnovers on the way to a 66-55 win.

Tu? Ja? How many point guards are there with two-letter first names in all of college basketball? This can't be a mere coincidence.

You forgot the part where he made Tu cry.

NickelDimer

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #61 on: March 18, 2019, 11:10:21 AM »
Sacar f’n Anim. I actually think Sacar has a ton of swag right now and is poised for a big tourney
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #62 on: March 18, 2019, 11:27:10 AM »
I have no idea why we are so obsessed with zone around here.

Honestly,  I think most fans have trouble identifying and verbalizing defensive adjustments so the default is throw a zone at them
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #63 on: March 18, 2019, 11:28:47 AM »
Sacar f’n Anim. I actually think Sacar has a ton of swag right now and is poised for a big tourney

He's been really good lately, especially since he's started draining 3s on a consistent basis. Kinda reminds me of senior year JJJ out of junior year Sacar.

If Sacar could finish at the rim a little better like JJJ we'd be set.

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #64 on: March 18, 2019, 11:29:13 AM »
Honestly,  I think most fans have trouble identifying and verbalizing defensive adjustments so the default is throw a zone at them

Box and one them

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #65 on: March 18, 2019, 11:29:22 AM »
This sounds like an opportunity for Sacar to emulate Jimmy Butler against X.

Had the exact same thought. Sacar isn't JFB (no one is) but I think he's up for the task
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #66 on: March 18, 2019, 11:39:59 AM »
Honestly,  I think most fans have trouble identifying and verbalizing defensive adjustments so the default is throw a zone at them

This. And I agree totally with what mu03eng wrote, too.

Any good m-t-m defensive team -- and that's exactly what we have been this year -- employs "one pass away," "two pass away" and "three pass away" guidelines. That's why, even when we play man, we almost always have Theo or Ed (or often Sam) ready to contest a shot at the rim. Many m-t-m defenses even look like zones at times; and quite often zones have m-t-m tendencies.

We have won 24 games playing how we play, and have beaten some very, very good teams along the way. Even during the 4-game losing streak, we had a late lead in every game.

As I said before the St. John's game, we don't need to reinvent the wheel. Our wheel is just fine.

Ja is gonna get his, or at least most of his, but ... we'll dominate the boards, we'll hit some open 3s when they concentrate too much on Markus, we'll score inside, we'll turn Ja over, and we'll win this game.

The only thing close to an "adjustment" I'd like to see is getting Sam a few more post-ups because I don't think they can stop him or even alter his shot. But again, this isn't major. Maybe 5-7 post-ups instead of 1-2. They respect that, and Joey, Sacar, maybe even Markus end up wide open from 3. Even without doing this, though, we win.
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #67 on: March 18, 2019, 11:42:30 AM »
I haven't read through this thread so maybe this has been thrown out there already, but I think Bailey's length will be a big key to defending Ja in this game.
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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #68 on: March 18, 2019, 11:43:58 AM »
This sounds like an opportunity for Sacar to emulate Jimmy Butler against X.

I had forgotten about that game. Thanks for the reminder. What a great day.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #69 on: March 18, 2019, 11:44:19 AM »
Last year They got beat by WVA by 17 in the opening round.  WVA Jevon Carter, good defensive player, like Sacar, held Morant to 14 points, 2 assists, 5 turnovers and 4 fouls.  Sacar, Bailey and even Cain can guard and attempt to overwhelm him. 

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #70 on: March 18, 2019, 11:45:49 AM »
Honestly,  I think most fans have trouble identifying and verbalizing defensive adjustments so the default is throw a zone at them

Also, we struggled so much with zone in the Crean era and with Buzz sometimes, that we think it solves a lot of problems.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #71 on: March 18, 2019, 12:00:47 PM »
Not with the kind of block rate Theo has. And as a team, they don't come remotely close to Marquette's defensive efficiency inside the arc.
I know I'm in the minority, but I think Theo's defense is overrated.  He purposely plays poor position defense when helping, to entice opponents to shoot so he can chase a block (which often backfires), gets bad goaltending calls chasing blocks, gives up rebounding position so he can chase a block and at least as often as not blocks the ball out of bounds when he does get a block, keeping possession with the other team.  He also fouls A LOT, so you can't count on him for 25 minutes a game.  He is very solid directly guarding a post player, though, and is certainly the best we have.  We so rarely have had a good low block defender in the past 20 years we don't even know what one looks like anymore.

One thing our low post defenders do this year way more than I can ever remember (Morrow is the best at it but Theo is pretty good when he does it) is to greet a penetrator by jumping straight up with their hands up, not in an attempt to block the shot, but to make the shot very difficult without fouling.  I wish Theo would concentrate on that to stay out of foul trouble.
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mu03eng

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #72 on: March 18, 2019, 12:20:06 PM »
This. And I agree totally with what mu03eng wrote, too.

Any good m-t-m defensive team -- and that's exactly what we have been this year -- employs "one pass away," "two pass away" and "three pass away" guidelines. That's why, even when we play man, we almost always have Theo or Ed (or often Sam) ready to contest a shot at the rim. Many m-t-m defenses even look like zones at times; and quite often zones have m-t-m tendencies.

We have won 24 games playing how we play, and have beaten some very, very good teams along the way. Even during the 4-game losing streak, we had a late lead in every game.

As I said before the St. John's game, we don't need to reinvent the wheel. Our wheel is just fine.

Ja is gonna get his, or at least most of his, but ... we'll dominate the boards, we'll hit some open 3s when they concentrate too much on Markus, we'll score inside, we'll turn Ja over, and we'll win this game.

The only thing close to an "adjustment" I'd like to see is getting Sam a few more post-ups because I don't think they can stop him or even alter his shot. But again, this isn't major. Maybe 5-7 post-ups instead of 1-2. They respect that, and Joey, Sacar, maybe even Markus end up wide open from 3. Even without doing this, though, we win.

Couldn't agree with this more. I think both of the Hausers need to get 7-10 high post touches in this game. Hell, Theo/Ed should get 5-8 low post touches this game as well. Balance the scoring and while I think it'll be close most of the game, I think we pull away late.
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NWarsh

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #73 on: March 18, 2019, 12:22:47 PM »
I know I'm in the minority, but I think Theo's defense is overrated.  He purposely plays poor position defense when helping, to entice opponents to shoot so he can chase a block (which often backfires), gets bad goaltending calls chasing blocks, gives up rebounding position so he can chase a block and at least as often as not blocks the ball out of bounds when he does get a block, keeping possession with the other team.  He also fouls A LOT, so you can't count on him for 25 minutes a game.  He is very solid directly guarding a post player, though, and is certainly the best we have.  We so rarely have had a good low block defender in the past 20 years we don't even know what one looks like anymore.

One thing our low post defenders do this year way more than I can ever remember (Morrow is the best at it but Theo is pretty good when he does it) is to greet a penetrator by jumping straight up with their hands up, not in an attempt to block the shot, but to make the shot very difficult without fouling.  I wish Theo would concentrate on that to stay out of foul trouble.

I agree with this 100%.  Theo is a big part of our improved interior defense, but Ed and Sam are text book in terms of challenging shots by going straight up.  They wall up with their chests out and hands straight up, it really is a thing of beauty.

SaveOD238

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #74 on: March 18, 2019, 12:24:49 PM »
Honestly,  I think most fans have trouble identifying and verbalizing defensive adjustments so the default is throw a zone at them

Zone is also the default for a lot of youth and high school programs, so it might be what folks played as kids before they realized they were more cut out for the stands than the floor.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #75 on: March 18, 2019, 12:34:37 PM »
Box and one them

Reverse box and one.  4 guys guard Morant, Theo plays a one man zone under the hoop.

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #76 on: March 18, 2019, 12:49:08 PM »
Murray St. can suck my @$$

Hopefully, that doesn't lead to points for them.
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vogue65

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #77 on: March 18, 2019, 12:55:27 PM »
Reverse box and one.  4 guys guard Morant, Theo plays a one man zone under the hoop.

I like it, we set a record for turnovers, the ultimate press.

Benny B

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Re: Know your opponent: Murray State
« Reply #78 on: March 18, 2019, 05:03:59 PM »
Box and one them

That's exactly what I was thinking.

Reverse box and one.  4 guys guard Morant, Theo plays a one man zone under the hoop.

I was thinking that too.
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