Luck or Grit?

[1SE]

This has been nagging me for a while now. We have the highest luck ranking in Kenpom's top 50 (KP 29, L 27) - and by a decent margin - and in the top 100 only UMN (KP 55, Luck 19) and UNCG (KP 82, Luck 3)

So what does that mean? If I understand his model, basically "luck" is his error term - the size of the residual difference from the predicted fit. A few weeks back I looked and, at least over the population, there doesn't seem to be any correlation in the error term (at least with ranking). 

More qualitatively, I think a way to describe these residuals is when the predicted result (in terms of score differential) is close, but the predicted outcome is difference. I.e. you barely win games you should have barely lost (for positive luck), and vice-versa (for negative luck).

So - is Marquette just "lucky"? I wonder - I wonder if this residual is truly random.

Sure - maybe the first few games it's luck - but is there then not some kind of data generating process that has something to do with the fact that teams that wins close games are more likely to win future close games? I'd love to crunch the numbers and see if there is anything to that - but basically the idea that your "luck" reinforces. I'd guess almost surely there is some sort of effect there. In other words, your current luck influences your future luck (when really, if it is a random residual, it shouldn't - there should be a continual regression to the mean).

And I think there's a legit mechanism for this - players that have won in close situations before expect to win when they are in them again, and this has a qualitative influence on their play in those situations. Let's call it Grit. Even as a fan - last year every time MU was in a close game I thought (oh jeez, we're going to lose). This year, every close game I think (we've got this).

So is Marquette Gritty or Lucky?

[ATWizJr]

Yes.

[tower912]

'I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it'     Thomas Jefferson   (although many others have variations of the same)

[Loose Cannon]

I'ii go with the BB gods much simpler to comprehend.

[NickelDimer]

Luck's where preparation and opportunity meet, eh?

[Pepe Sylvia]

MU has really good "luck" in close games because they excel at the situations end games usually come down to: FT shooting and 2pt defense. That's my takeaway, anyhow.

[Goose]

I think combination of the two. They definitely have shown more grit, but ball God has been pretty kind to the Warriors this season.

[GooooMarquette]

As long as we keep winning, I honestly don't think it matters.

[buckchuckler]

Have to agree that it has been both.  They've played hard, and played great and put themselves in position to win games, but the officials have had a big hand in helping out at least a couple of W's.

[Markusquette]

Feel like we've been on the short end of the stick from a luck standpoint for years, so I'll take any ounce of it. Think this team is very good end game.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Winners call it grit
Losers call it luck

[GooooMarquette]

Winners call it grit
Losers call it luck

True dat.

[Silent Verbal]

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.  The fact that we've been lucky a few times this year bodes well for the rest of the season.  That Creighton game absolutely should've been a loss, which is why the second St. John's game didn't bother me.  We owed one to the fates.

We're not just lucky, though.  We're good, and this year is starting to feel more and more like '03 to me.  We've got a legit superstar, great second and third scoring options, and a bunch of solid role players who are happy to do the dirty work and step up when needed.  I'm not saying we'll make the Final Four, but that same type of magic is in the air. 

[brewcity77]

This has been nagging me for a while now.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/01/the-high-risk-game-of-luck.html?m=1

I wrote about this last month. Take from it what you will, but in general teams that are overseeded on luck don't fare well in March.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I find that gritty teams are the luckiest

[MU82]

Not the least bit concerned about our LGQ (Luck/Grit Quotient).

We can be lucky and gritty all the way to the Final Four.

[TVDirector]

"Luck is the residue of design"
-Me

[muwarrior69]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/01/the-high-risk-game-of-luck.html?m=1

I wrote about this last month. Take from it what you will, but in general teams that are overseeded on luck don't fare well in March.

I think any team in the power 16 can be upset in the NCAA tourney.

[mug644]

I think that confidence plays a factor too, though maybe that's close to grit. To go into tight endings with confidence that things will go right helps prevent the 'yips' that losing teams experience. The MU program is building that confidence. And it's good.

[MarquetteDano]

We're not just lucky, though.  We're good, and this year is starting to feel more and more like '03 to me.  We've got a legit superstar, great second and third scoring options, and a bunch of solid role players who are happy to do the dirty work and step up when needed.  I'm not saying we'll make the Final Four, but that same type of magic is in the air.

Speaking of the '03 team,  they finished #30 luck per Pomeroy that year.

[brewcity77]

I think any team in the power 16 can be upset in the NCAA tourney.

Sure. But any team can always be upset. It just seems to happen more frequently with teams that rate highly in luck & are disproportionately seeded.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

"Luck is the residue of design"
-Me

You're Branch Rickey? You look pretty good for a dead guy.

[buckchuckler]

Winners call it grit
Losers call it luck

Oh Poop!  I don't want sand-knit to think I am a loser!  Grit.  It is totally grit that made the refs miss the call at the end of the Creighton game.  That was gritty AF!!!!!

And yesterday, what grit it took to get than phantom foul call on what would have been a huge offensive rebound.

Even grittier of Markus to not get called for a foul after that TO.

They couldn't be grittier if they were being served at the Waffle House!

[TVDirector]

You're Branch Rickey? You look pretty good for a dead guy.

Well, okay, I guess there's that!!
Reincarnation!!!!!

[brewcity77]

Grit is how Badger fans excuse Davison's cheating, dirty behavior. Get that $#!+ out of here.