collapse

* Resources


UDM 4

* 2018-2019 SOTG


2018-19 Season SoG Tally
Howard11
S Hauser4
John4
Anim3
Chartouny2

'17-18 * '16-17 *
'15-16'14-15 * '13-14
'12-13 * '11-12 * '10-11

* Big East Standings

* Recent Posts

Recruiting as of 5/15/19 by tower912
[Today at 08:17:06 AM]


Seat Donations and Reseating by PTM
[Today at 08:13:18 AM]


Wojo/MU story in The Athletic by PTM
[Today at 08:07:30 AM]


(OT) Hello Michael Johnson by 4everwarriors
[Today at 08:02:34 AM]


2019 Coaching Carousel by jsglow
[Today at 07:43:25 AM]


Outsiders View Of Hausers Transfer by brewcity77
[May 18, 2019, 11:51:13 PM]


Expected MH is Candidate by Newsdreams
[May 18, 2019, 11:39:16 PM]

Please Register - It's FREE!

The absolute only thing required for this FREE registration is a valid e-mail address.  We keep all your information confidential and will NEVER give or sell it to anyone else.
Login to get rid of this box (and ads) , or register NOW!

* Next up: A long offseason

Marquette
Marquette

Madness

Date/Time: Oct 4, 2019
TV: ???
Schedule for 2018-19
24-10

Author Topic: Luck or Grit?  (Read 2317 times)

1SE

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 732
Luck or Grit?
« on: February 10, 2019, 02:39:35 PM »
This has been nagging me for a while now. We have the highest luck ranking in Kenpom's top 50 (KP 29, L 27) - and by a decent margin - and in the top 100 only UMN (KP 55, Luck 19) and UNCG (KP 82, Luck 3)

So what does that mean? If I understand his model, basically "luck" is his error term - the size of the residual difference from the predicted fit. A few weeks back I looked and, at least over the population, there doesn't seem to be any correlation in the error term (at least with ranking). 

More qualitatively, I think a way to describe these residuals is when the predicted result (in terms of score differential) is close, but the predicted outcome is difference. I.e. you barely win games you should have barely lost (for positive luck), and vice-versa (for negative luck).

So - is Marquette just "lucky"? I wonder - I wonder if this residual is truly random.

Sure - maybe the first few games it's luck - but is there then not some kind of data generating process that has something to do with the fact that teams that wins close games are more likely to win future close games? I'd love to crunch the numbers and see if there is anything to that - but basically the idea that your "luck" reinforces. I'd guess almost surely there is some sort of effect there. In other words, your current luck influences your future luck (when really, if it is a random residual, it shouldn't - there should be a continual regression to the mean).

And I think there's a legit mechanism for this - players that have won in close situations before expect to win when they are in them again, and this has a qualitative influence on their play in those situations. Let's call it Grit. Even as a fan - last year every time MU was in a close game I thought (oh jeez, we're going to lose). This year, every close game I think (we've got this).

So is Marquette Gritty or Lucky?
Real Warriors Demand Excellence

ATWizJr

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2237
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2019, 02:41:23 PM »
Yes.

tower912

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 14443
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2019, 02:50:22 PM »
'I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it'     Thomas Jefferson   (although many others have variations of the same)
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

Loose Cannon

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2401
  • Voltaire says Hi
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2019, 03:04:48 PM »


 I'ii go with the BB gods much simpler to comprehend.
"Sports Doesn't Build Character; They Reveal It" ... Haywood Hale Broun

NickelDimer

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3001
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2019, 03:07:02 PM »
Luck’s where preparation and opportunity meet, eh?
G.T.S.T

Pepe Sylvia

  • Scholarship Player
  • **
  • Posts: 53
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2019, 03:10:31 PM »
MU has really good "luck" in close games because they excel at the situations end games usually come down to: FT shooting and 2pt defense. That's my takeaway, anyhow.

Goose

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6146
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2019, 03:12:40 PM »
I think combination of the two. They definitely have shown more grit, but ball God has been pretty kind to the Warriors this season.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 03:21:37 PM by Goose »

GooooMarquette

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6762
  • A nation living in the shadow of gaslight....
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2019, 03:18:40 PM »
As long as we keep winning, I honestly don't think it matters.

buckchuckler

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 871
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2019, 03:19:10 PM »
Have to agree that it has been both.  They've played hard, and played great and put themselves in position to win games, but the officials have had a big hand in helping out at least a couple of W's.
Their= possessive of they
They're= slightly shorter than "they are"
There= the opposite of here

Markusquette

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2410
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2019, 03:41:48 PM »
Feel like we've been on the short end of the stick from a luck standpoint for years, so I'll take any ounce of it. Think this team is very good end game.

Mr. Sand-Knit

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2433
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2019, 04:15:40 PM »
Winners call it grit
Losers call it luck
Political free board, plz leave your clever quips in your clever mind.

GooooMarquette

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6762
  • A nation living in the shadow of gaslight....
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2019, 04:24:10 PM »
Winners call it grit
Losers call it luck



True dat.

Research Report

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 201
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2019, 04:34:16 PM »
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.  The fact that we’ve been lucky a few times this year bodes well for the rest of the season.  That Creighton game absolutely should’ve been a loss, which is why the second St. John’s game didn’t bother me.  We owed one to the fates.

We’re not just lucky, though.  We’re good, and this year is starting to feel more and more like ‘03 to me.  We’ve got a legit superstar, great second and third scoring options, and a bunch of solid role players who are happy to do the dirty work and step up when needed.  I’m not saying we’ll make the Final Four, but that same type of magic is in the air. 

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 18965
  • Alan Bykowski
    • Brew City Ball
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2019, 04:38:21 PM »
This has been nagging me for a while now.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/01/the-high-risk-game-of-luck.html?m=1

I wrote about this last month. Take from it what you will, but in general teams that are overseeded on luck don't fare well in March.

TAMU Eagle

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 15411
  • A Reading from Wojo's 1st Slide to the Marquettens
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2019, 05:31:57 PM »
I find that gritty teams are the luckiest
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 11333
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2019, 05:34:27 PM »
Not the least bit concerned about our LGQ (Luck/Grit Quotient).

We can be lucky and gritty all the way to the Final Four.
"The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is."

-- Winston Churchill

TVDirector

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1084
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2019, 05:41:19 PM »
“Luck is the residue of design”
-Me

muwarrior69

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3081
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2019, 06:38:13 PM »
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/01/the-high-risk-game-of-luck.html?m=1

I wrote about this last month. Take from it what you will, but in general teams that are overseeded on luck don't fare well in March.

I think any team in the power 16 can be upset in the NCAA tourney.

mug644

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1141
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2019, 06:53:50 PM »
I think that confidence plays a factor too, though maybe that’s close to grit. To go into tight endings with confidence that things will go right helps prevent the ‘yips’ that losing teams experience. The MU program is building that confidence. And it’s good.

MarquetteDano

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2889
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2019, 07:02:24 PM »
We’re not just lucky, though.  We’re good, and this year is starting to feel more and more like ‘03 to me.  We’ve got a legit superstar, great second and third scoring options, and a bunch of solid role players who are happy to do the dirty work and step up when needed.  I’m not saying we’ll make the Final Four, but that same type of magic is in the air.

Speaking of the '03 team,  they finished #30 luck per Pomeroy that year.

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 18965
  • Alan Bykowski
    • Brew City Ball
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2019, 07:30:21 PM »
I think any team in the power 16 can be upset in the NCAA tourney.

Sure. But any team can always be upset. It just seems to happen more frequently with teams that rate highly in luck & are disproportionately seeded.

TAMU Eagle

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 15411
  • A Reading from Wojo's 1st Slide to the Marquettens
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2019, 08:07:28 PM »
“Luck is the residue of design”
-Me

You're Branch Rickey? You look pretty good for a dead guy.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

buckchuckler

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 871
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2019, 09:28:23 PM »
Winners call it grit
Losers call it luck

Oh Poop!  I don't want sand-knit to think I am a loser!  Grit.  It is totally grit that made the refs miss the call at the end of the Creighton game.  That was gritty AF!!!!!

And yesterday, what grit it took to get than phantom foul call on what would have been a huge offensive rebound.

Even grittier of Markus to not get called for a foul after that TO.

They couldn't be grittier if they were being served at the Waffle House!
Their= possessive of they
They're= slightly shorter than "they are"
There= the opposite of here

TVDirector

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1084
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2019, 09:45:51 PM »
You're Branch Rickey? You look pretty good for a dead guy.
Well, okay, I guess there’s that!!
Reincarnation!!!!!

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 18965
  • Alan Bykowski
    • Brew City Ball
Re: Luck or Grit?
« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2019, 10:34:48 PM »
Grit is how Badger fans excuse Davison's cheating, dirty behavior. Get that $#!+ out of here.