Big East Conference Results/ NCAA/NIT/CBI

[Galway Eagle]

TAMU, do you think that when it comes time for the committee to do their work, they will look at a certain win and say, "Well, that's technically a Q1 win, but barely so. Practically a Q2"?

Not asking sarcastically at all. Wondering if you've gotten a feel for that kind of distinction.

Wasn't that one of the arguments with our resume last year? We had a decent amount of Q1 wins but none were top statement Q1 wins

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

TAMU, do you think that when it comes time for the committee to do their work, they will look at a certain win and say, "Well, that's technically a Q1 win, but barely so. Practically a Q2"?

Not asking sarcastically at all. Wondering if you've gotten a feel for that kind of distinction.

Can't say I know anyone on the committee so I don't know. But two things lead me think that they would.

1) The fact that they felt compelled to further separate Q1/Q2 into Q1a/Q1b/Q2a/Q2b. Seems like the only reason to do that would be because they value the "a" type wins over the "b" type wins
2) Marquette being so far out of the tourney last season. Marquette's resume last season was very solid, I think certainly worthy enough for consideration for a bid, but they got placed at least 5 spots out of the promised land. We had only 1 bad loss (DEPAUL!!!) and had 5 Q1 wins. That was better than some of the teams both in the tourney and the 1 seeds in the NIT. But the knock I kept hearing was while those were 5 Q1 wins...none of them were "marquis" victories and that hurt us.

[brewcity77]

TAMU, do you think that when it comes time for the committee to do their work, they will look at a certain win and say, "Well, that's technically a Q1 win, but barely so. Practically a Q2"?

Not asking sarcastically at all. Wondering if you've gotten a feel for that kind of distinction.

I think that's why they broke the Quadrants into A/B. I essentially think of each bracket as the Committee asking a question. Here are the questions by Quadrant, in reverse order of difficulty because I think it makes more sense that way:

Quadrant 2B (Home 56-76, Neutral 76-100, Away 101-135): "Can you beat an autobid team?" The teams here aren't likely to be getting at-large bids, but more often than not this is where you will find mid and low major conference winners. These are teams that are either earning the auto-bid or filling out the NIT field.

Quadrant 2A (Home 31-55, Neutral 51-75, Away 76-100): "Can you win a game in Dayton?" The teams you beat here are the types you will see if you are in a play-in game. They are bubble teams to high NIT seeds. This is showing you can beat a good team, but if this is your best win, you may not be able to go far once the bright lights come on.

Quadrant 1B (Home 16-30, Neutral 26-50, Away 41-75): "Can you win a game in the Tournament?" These are the teams that are going to get into the field, down to the bubble. In general, if you are a top-40 team (whether in RPI, kenpom, NET, whatever) you are most likely going to be in. It's after 40 that you start to see teams that are on the bubble. So winning these games is proving you can win on the first day of the Tournament, though not necessarily able to make a deep run.

Quadrant 1A (Home 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40): "Can you go to the Sweet 16 and possibly win once you get there?" Teams that win these games at home are proving they can beat the protected seeds, while the neutral court range goes down to about the 7-line. Those are teams that are safely in the tournament. If you are winning these games, you are good enough to get a win that will advance you to the Sweet 16. Teams that have won multiple Q1A games are good enough to advance beyond the Sweet 16.

This is why I think a team like Arizona State is going to get a long look again from the Selection Committee. They have some terrible losses, but 3 Q1B wins. If they get in, they have proven they can win the types of games you play in March. The same goes for teams like Georgetown and Creighton, who have more Q1 wins than many of the teams they are competing with for bids. I don't think a losing record in Q1 hurts you much, but if you have a large sample size (5+ games) you better win some of them.

I'm not sure how much Q2 matters at all. On a high seeds resume, it's more the presence of Q2 games as opposed to Q3/4 that makes the resume look good. If you are competing for a top-4 seed, you won't have many, if any, losses there. When it comes to the bubble, it might be a bit more important, especially Q2A. If you are a team that only got 2-3 Q1 games (and didn't get wins) but dominated Q2, that will reflect pretty well because you are winning the good games you do get (see Nevada and Houston).

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Can't say I know anyone on the committee so I don't know. But two things lead me think that they would.

1) The fact that they felt compelled to further separate Q1/Q2 into Q1a/Q1b/Q2a/Q2b. Seems like the only reason to do that would be because they value the "a" type wins over the "b" type wins
2) Marquette being so far out of the tourney last season. Marquette's resume last season was very solid, I think certainly worthy enough for consideration for a bid, but they got placed at least 5 spots out of the promised land. We had only 1 bad loss (DEPAUL!!!) and had 5 Q1 wins. That was better than some of the teams both in the tourney and the 1 seeds in the NIT. But the knock I kept hearing was while those were 5 Q1 wins...none of them were "marquis" victories and that hurt us.

People a year later can continue to try to break down MU missingbthe tourney all they want.  Botttom line is we beat Depaul and we r in.  Not only does it give us 1 more win and avoidance of that bad loss late, it puts us 1 clear game above conference foes that did get in.  Depaul game was it. And yes the Depaul game allowed at least 5 teams to over take us.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I like your way of thinking about the Quadrants Brew.

I thought you were crazy when you said the Creighton had more Q1 wins than the teams they were competing with. Then I checked. Dear god is the bubble weak this year. BraketMatrix's last four in, first four out, and next four out have a combined total of 14 Q1 wins. That's 12 teams with 14 Q1 wins. Barely 1 Q1 win per team. And Indiana has 4 of them! So 10 Q1 wins for the other 11 teams.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

In terms of best thing for the league with respect to maximizing bids and not rooting for us to lose (obviously) is X, Depaul and Gtown losing all games not against that group of three. SJU ending up with 10 wins, not 11.  Seton Hall finding a way to get to 9-9 in BE play, which means they probably need to steal 1 @SJU or @Nova. 

If the standings end up this, I think the league has a pretty good shot at 5 bids (with results that would fit this scenario:

Marquette 15-3
[vs. Butler (W); @PC (W); @Nova (L): vs. Creighton (W); @SHU (W); vs. Gtown (W)]
Villanova 15-3
[vs. PC (W); @SJU (L); @Gtown (W); @X (W); vs. MU (W), vs. Butler (L); @SHU (W)]
SJU 10-8
[vs. Nova (W); @PC (L); vs. SHU (L): vs. X (W); @Depaul (W); @ X (W)]
Creighton 9-9
[@X (W); vs. SHU (W); @Depaul (W): vs. Gtown (W); @MU (L); vs.PC (L); vs. Depaul (W)]
Seton Hall 9-9
[vs. Gtown (W); @Creighton (L); vs. X (W): @ SJU (W); @Gtown (W); vs. MU (L); vs. Nova (L)]
Butler 9-9
[vs. Depaul (W); @MU (L); vs. PC (W): @Nova (W); vs. X (W); @PC (L)]
Providence 8-10
[@NOVA (L); vs. X (W); vs. SJU (W): vs. MU (L); @Butler (L); @Creighton (W); vs. Butler (W)]
Gtown 6-12
[@ SHU (L); vs. Nova (L); @Creighton (L): vs. Depaul (W); vs. SHU (L); @ Depaul (L); @MU (L)]
Depaul 6-12
[@Butler (L); vs. Creighton (L); @Gtown (L): vs. SJU (L); vs. Gtown (W); @ Creighton (L)]
X 3-15
[vs. Creighton (L); @PC (L); @SHU (L): vs. Nova (L); @SJU (L); @Butler (L); vs. SJU (L)]

I think in this case Marquette, Nova, SJU and Seton Hall are all in.  One of Butler or Creighton are in the play in games. 

PC could perhaps get themselves into that conversation with a 9-9 finish.  Beating Nova tonight could do the trick, which would also give us the outright BE crown (again, based on results listed above - with the one change being PC over Nova tonight).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

People a year later can continue to try to break down MU missingbthe tourney all they want.  Botttom line is we beat Depaul and we r in.  Not only does it give us 1 more win and avoidance of that bad loss late, it puts us 1 clear game above conference foes that did get in.  Depaul game was it. And yes the Depaul game allowed at least 5 teams to over take us.

I'm not sure I agree. Maybe it's enough to get us in but avoiding 1 bad loss doesn't really get me all hot and bothered if I'm the committee. I think falling short against Villanova and X were the bigger misses. Had a chance to win both games. Either of those and I think we are in the tourney, possible even avoiding Dayton. Win both and I don't think we're on the bubble.

[Galway Eagle]

I'm not sure I agree. Maybe it's enough to get us in but avoiding 1 bad loss doesn't really get me all hot and bothered if I'm the committee. I think falling short against Villanova and X were the bigger misses. Had a chance to win both games. Either of those and I think we are in the tourney, possible even avoiding Dayton. Win both and I don't think we're on the bubble.

If we beat depaul didn't we own the tiebreaker to end up third assuming all else equal? Honestly not much use worrying about it now but it's crazy to think that team would probably be better than most the BE this year and solidly in the tournament.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'll be honest J5, I don't care much about whether or not the other Big East teams make the tourney. I want whatever is best for Marquette. Personally I think that means cheering for DePaul, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Providence. All four are straddling the borderline between Q1/Q2 road win and Q2/Q3 home win. I would love to see all three end up on the right side of 75. Nova, SJU, Butler, Creighton, and X can all take some punishment without changing quadrants.

[brewcity77]

I like your way of thinking about the Quadrants Brew.

I thought you were crazy when you said the Creighton had more Q1 wins than the teams they were competing with. Then I checked. Dear god is the bubble weak this year. BraketMatrix's last four in, first four out, and next four out have a combined total of 14 Q1 wins. That's 12 teams with 14 Q1 wins. Barely 1 Q1 win per team. And Indiana has 4 of them! So 10 Q1 wins for the other 11 teams.

It gets really bad when you get down there this year. That's why I think Indiana is in pretty solid shape. As much as they've fallen off, they have proven they can beat teams and most of their wins are Q1. It's also why I think Georgetown has a real shot; if they win tonight they will have 4 Q1 wins as well. Hard to keep that out.

This is also why I'm not as sold on people saying this will be the year for the mid-majors to get bids. Teams like Utah State, VCU, San Francisco, Murray State, they just don't have anything that proves they can win if they get in. Most of the high majors do, even if only 2-3 Q1 victories. Belmont, on the other hand, should be in regardless.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'll be honest J5, I don't care much about whether or not the other Big East teams make the tourney. I want whatever is best for Marquette. Personally I think that means cheering for DePaul, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Providence. All four are straddling the borderline between Q1/Q2 road win and Q2/Q3 home win. I would love to see all three end up on the right side of 75. Nova, SJU, Butler, Creighton, and X can all take some punishment without changing quadrants.

Meh.  I personally care more about the Big East getting 5+ bids than I do arbitrary cut offs for quadrants wins.  If Marquette finishes 14-4 or better, they're going to be a 3 seed, and probably a 2 at 15-3 or better.  I am entirely unconcerned about where Marquette stands currently.  We don't need to worry about that stuff this season. 

[Its DJOver]

People a year later can continue to try to break down MU missingbthe tourney all they want.  Botttom line is we beat Depaul and we r in.  Not only does it give us 1 more win and avoidance of that bad loss late, it puts us 1 clear game above conference foes that did get in.  Depaul game was it. And yes the Depaul game allowed at least 5 teams to over take us.

Disagree with your opinion.  Pick 2 out of Georgia, Providence, and DePaul, or one of Purdue, Wichita State, x, or Nova and we're there.

[Boston Warrior]

Question...

All things considered in level of importance of criteria to get into the tourney..,

Quad 1 wins or net ranking?

There are some higher net ranking teams that don’t have many quad 1 wins and vice versa.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Question...

All things considered in level of importance of criteria to get into the tourney..,

Quad 1 wins or net ranking?

There are some higher net ranking teams that don’t have many quad 1 wins and vice versa.

I don't think anyone knows for certain how much the committee will weigh NET in other overall scheme of things, and we only have 1 year of results to show us how they used Quadrants, and then they tweaked them again this season.  Hard to know.

[brewcity77]

Question...

All things considered in level of importance of criteria to get into the tourney..,

Quad 1 wins or net ranking?

There are some higher net ranking teams that don’t have many quad 1 wins and vice versa.

All we have to go on right now is the top-16. 14/16 were in the top-16 of the NET & the 4 teams they mentioned as just outside (Villanova, Va Tech, Texas Tech, LSU) were really close. No one outside the top-21 I believe was mentioned. I do think when it comes to at-large teams, you don't want to be much lower than 55-60 in NET.

One interesting thing was seeing both Houston & Nevada in the top-16. Despite few high powered wins, might that bode well for teams like UNCG, Utah State, & San Francisco that are light on quality wins but highly regarded by the NET?

A year ago, Arizona State benefited from quality wins despite a questionable resume at the other end. This year, ASU, Indiana, and Seton Hall are hoping that trend holds. The consensus is that those 3 are in, but until Selection Sunday we won't really know.

[Herman Cain]

I always want the most Big East teams in the tournament because it ultimately is to MU’s benefit. The league gets more money to spread around and the visibility is very helpful for recruiting.

I am hoping Seton Hall can get on a run. They have some super nice non con wins and I hate to see that go to West . I think Creighton is a fun team to watch and they have the schedule in their favor from here so maybe they can sneak in. Johnnies need some consistency to make it.

[Jay Bee]

I quoted from 2015, which is the most recent one I could find.  If anyone has the 2019 rules, I'd love to see them.

And I didn't mean to be a jerk, just an inside joke with TAMU about being right.

I've got the 2019 rules.

http://www.bigeast.com/documents/2019/1/30/2019_BIG_EAST_Men_s_Basketball_Tie_Breaking_Procedure.pdf

[Not A Serious Person]

Providence down by 2 at Nova.  12 minutes left.

Dare to Dream!

[brewcity77]

Tied at 53. Can't imagine PC wins this, but there's a chance.

And as I type, Providence goes up 55-53.

[LloydsLegs]

Tied at 53. Can't imagine PC wins this, but there's a chance.

And as I type, Providence goes up 55-53.

I’m simulcasting with Nova radio - just found out that a good friend’s kid is doing the radio for the school broadcast.  He is no Rafferty- yet.

[warriorchick]

I’m simulcasting with Nova radio - just found out that a good friend’s kid is doing the radio for the school broadcast.  He is no Rafferty- yet.

I bet he's no Raftery either.   

[Herman Cain]

Rooting for Cooley & Company.

[brewcity77]

Providence is dead. 77-63 with 3:10 to play. Offense went into hibernation.

[LloydsLegs]

I bet he's no Raftery either.   

The funny part is that I was seriously concentrating on not getting it wrong!  Doh!

[LloydsLegs]

Georgetown UNI’s fugly