Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The odds are probably 50/50 we end up in Duke's region if we are a top-4 seed. Either them or Virginia because of the number of ACC and Big Ten teams near the top.

Outside chance we end up with Kentucky/Tennessee, highly unlikely we are in Gonzaga's region. That's just how the seeding rules work.

Bracketmatrix has 5 ACC teams in the top 16.  But bracket rules would permit the 5th team to be in Duke's or Virginia's bracket.

So much depends on the final S-curve.  My mock bracket this morning put Marquette in Duke's region.  But that also gave #1 Duke the toughest bracket and #4 Kentucky the easiest.

The cumulative seed difference was 4, so within the threshold of bracket rules.  But swapping Marquette and Florida State would put the cumulative seed difference at 2.  #2 Virginia then has the toughest and #3 Gonzaga the easiest.

But the committee's S-curve is what counts, so my bracketmatrix based S-curve might be a little off.  And there's still a lot of basketball to be played. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Honest question..how in the hell could the committee justify putting Houston ahead of MU(and others)? So what...they have two total losses..but count em..2 Q1 wins and 20..thats right 20 wins against Q3-Q4..If Houston is seeded higher than MU someone's got some 'splaining to do. And my worries about the committee are justified. You cant seemingly place a huge priority on Q1 wins..then ignore it when it comes to Houston.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but Houston has 4 Q1 wins (including 2 Q1A), 9 Q2 wins (including 6 Q2A), and only 14 wins against Q3/Q4.

And you are doing the thing again where you zero in one stat and ignore all the other stats. Yes Houston only has 4 Q1 wins (same amount as #1 seeded Gonzaga). But they also only have two losses total, both in Q1 games. They are 23-0 against Q2/Q3/Q4 opponents, so no bad losses. They are also #6 in NET. They have a lot of positive things on their resume. The lower amount of Q1 wins is why they are only a 3/4 seed instead of a 1-seed.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I'm curious what the committee does with Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 10-7 since Azubuike's season ended.  Plus, Vick is still on his leave of absence.  The early season wins against Michigan State,  Marquette,  and Tennessee were by a full strength Kansas.

The Kansas resumé and the team Kansas  fields in the tournament is an interesting contrast.

[Benny B]

I'm curious what the committee does with Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 10-7 since Azubuike's season ended.  Plus, Vick is still on his leave of absence.  The early season wins against Michigan State,  Marquette,  and Tennessee were by a full strength Kansas.

The Kansas resumé and the team Kansas  fields in the tournament is an interesting contrast.

The same thing that would happen to Duke if Zion's season is over. 

(Which may explain why Duke is doing the smart thing and not saying a word until the committee meets.)

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The same thing that would happen to Duke if Zion's season is over. 

(Which may explain why Duke is doing the smart thing and not saying a word until the committee meets.)

Yep.  Right now I am assuming Zion returns for the ACC tournament.  Otherwise,  Duke also gets debated heavily.

Michigan State with Ward is another one to watch.  Langford has been out so long that I think that injury has already been factored into MSU's resumé.  We shall see.

[MU82]

I'm curious what the committee does with Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 10-7 since Azubuike's season ended.  Plus, Vick is still on his leave of absence.  The early season wins against Michigan State,  Marquette,  and Tennessee were by a full strength Kansas.

The Kansas resumé and the team Kansas  fields in the tournament is an interesting contrast.

For that matter, will the committee think our loss to a full-strength Kansas looks "better" than, say, Texas Tech's loss to an Azubuike-less Kansas and K-State's loss to an Azubuike-less and Vick-less Kansas?

[SaveOD238]

The same thing that would happen to Duke if Zion's season is over. 

(Which may explain why Duke is doing the smart thing and not saying a word until the committee meets.)

Duke w/o Zion has not been convincing.  They lost twice (UNC and @VT), though neither is a bad loss.  They've won 3, but almost lost to a bad Wake Forest team.  If they beat UNC on Saturday, all will be forgiven.  A loss Saturday and a weak-ish showing in the ACC tournament and Duke will be staring at a 2 and maybe even a 3 seed.

[HowardsWorld]

We need to relax and just beat Georgetown. I would not be shocked to see us win the BET. While I don't think we can get a 3 seed anymore we can still get a 4 or 5 and the difference between 4 and 5 in marginal. I still see this team as a Sweet 16 team. I think the worst we will be is a 6 seed and thats if we lost our next 2 games. We still have a solid resume and any team greater than a 6 seed has a super weak resume.

[SaveOD238]

There's almost reason to prefer a 5 to a 4.  4s will be matched up with 13s, who are going to be mostly mid-to-low-major conference champs.  5s get 12s, who will be mostly bad high major teams (like Arizona St. or Clemson or Minnesota).  I'd rather take my chances against middle-of-the-pack Big 10 teams than proven winners from the lower conferences.

[CountryRoads]

There's almost reason to prefer a 5 to a 4.  4s will be matched up with 13s, who are going to be mostly mid-to-low-major conference champs.  5s get 12s, who will be mostly bad high major teams (like Arizona St. or Clemson or Minnesota).  I'd rather take my chances against middle-of-the-pack Big 10 teams than proven winners from the lower conferences.

I agree, I don't think it really matters if we are a 3 or a 6 at this point. Earn a 3? You play 30-4 wofford. Get a 6? You play 19-13 Clemson. Not a huge difference. The second round game would obviously be tougher but not by a large stretch.

I guess avoiding a #1 or #2 as long as possible would be my ideal situation. It doesn't look like MU will drop to a 7 or an 8 so that should be good at least.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I agree, I don't think it really matters if we are a 3 or a 6 at this point. Earn a 3? You play 30-4 wofford. Get a 6? You play 19-13 Clemson. Not a huge difference. The second round game would obviously be tougher but not by a large stretch.

I guess avoiding a #1 or #2 as long as possible would be my ideal situation. It doesn't look like MU will drop to a 7 or an 8 so that should be good at least.

Wofford is going to be a 10-12 seed. Personally, I'd rather be a 4 seed, there's a reason why the 5/12 upset is a thing.

[HowardsWorld]

Wofford is going to be a 10-12 seed. Personally, I'd rather be a 4 seed, there's a reason why the 5/12 upset is a thing.

The 5/12 being an upset is because the 12 seed is usually the strongest mid major year after year. However I believe Wofford will get a 8/9 seed.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The 5/12 being an upset is because the 12 seed is usually the strongest mid major year after year. However I believe Wofford will get a 8/9 seed.

Agreed on the reason for 5/12 upset. That's why I prefer a 4 seed.

[nyg]

Beat Georgetown.

Win two in BE tournament, get to final.  Win or lose, should be a four seed. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Still a 4 seed in Lunardis update this morning FWIW.

[BM1090]

Top 5 seed in bracketville. Beat GT and win one in NY and I think we will be on the 4 line