Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[Silkk the Shaka]

According to my calculations, we have a 100% chance of winning out.

Ha hard to argue against that, in my heart I know it to be true

[Benny B]

I like how both of those sites still have Villanova bolded and not Marquette.

Ever notice how MU performs just a teency bit better when they're the underdog / behind the eight ball? 


Wojo must be using some kind of sorcery the way he's been able to maintain that illusion despite having the #11 team in the country.

[Benny B]

According to my calculations, we have a 100% chance of winning out.

Dammit, 82.... you're supposed to be the math expert around here.



You've been taking too many of the blue pills again, haven't you?  I'm sure you're making Mrs. 82 very happy, but you've got to get some blood flow back above your neck.

[BrewCity83]

Ever notice how MU performs just a teency bit better when they're the underdog / behind the eight ball? 


Wojo must be using some kind of sorcery the way he's been able to maintain that illusion despite having the #11 team in the country.

#mindgames

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

According to my calculations, we have a 100% chance of winning out.

[GB Warrior]

According to my calculations, we have a 100% chance of winning out.

Actually I think our odds are 50/50 http://www.cc.com/video-clips/hzqmb9/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-large-hadron-collider

[BM1090]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Butler sneaks in.

[GoldenEagle323]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Butler sneaks in.

If we're a 3 seed i do not want to play louisville again or virginia tech

[SaveOD238]

If we're a 3 seed i do not want to play louisville again or virginia tech

Louisville no.  Virginia Tech isn't actually that good, they just beat up on cupcakes which inflated their computer #s

[Mr. Nielsen]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I really wish for the betterment of the sport teams like Belmont & Lipscomb get in over the likes of Oklahoma & Clemson.

[MU82]

Louisville no.  Virginia Tech isn't actually that good, they just beat up on cupcakes which inflated their computer #s

Part of me would love to see our guys crush Buzz. But part of me REALLY doesn't want to lose to Buzz.

[lawdog77]

I really wish for the betterment of the sport teams like Belmont & Lipscomb get in over the likes of Oklahoma & Clemson.

I will die on the hill of "there is no way Oklahoma  would make it in if the season ended today". They are currently 5 games under .500 in league play.  Moot point probably, they have 3 games against ranked teams. If they lose them all, they are definitely toast.

[GooooMarquette]

Part of me would love to see our guys crush Buzz. But part of me REALLY doesn't want to lose to Buzz.

That's the thing with dreams...they can turn into nightmares.

[brewcity77]

I will die on the hill of "there is no way Oklahoma  would make it in if the season ended today". They are currently 5 games under .500 in league play.  Moot point probably, they have 3 games against ranked teams. If they lose them all, they are definitely toast.

I suspect you'd be lonely on that hill, at least in the "if the season ended today" sense. While they may trend out of the field, they have too much quality on the resume to be left out. 3 Q1 wins, no losses outside Q2, and really bolstered by the fact that they didn't play any Q4 games so they have an excellent SOS. If they go 3-2 the rest of the way, they're almost certainly in, even with a 7-11 conference record.

[Cheeks]

Part of me would love to see our guys crush Buzz. But part of me REALLY doesn't want to lose to Buzz.

This

[lawdog77]

I suspect you'd be lonely on that hill, at least in the "if the season ended today" sense. While they may trend out of the field, they have too much quality on the resume to be left out. 3 Q1 wins, no losses outside Q2, and really bolstered by the fact that they didn't play any Q4 games so they have an excellent SOS. If they go 3-2 the rest of the way, they're almost certainly in, even with a 7-11 conference record.

I don't want to be that "eye test" guy, but, to me a team who only wins 1/3 of their conference game doesn't deserve to be in the field.

[Mr. Nielsen]

I did look at OU's non-conference schedule. It was pretty tough.   

[brewcity77]

I don't want to be that "eye test" guy, but, to me a team who only wins 1/3 of their conference game doesn't deserve to be in the field.

The committee has said repeatedly conference play isn't weighted any differently than non-con. Just compare USC & Arizona State's resumes from last year.

Teams will crash out, but with Indiana, Nebraska, NC State, & the Pac-12 in freefall, someone has to get the bid.

[Cheeks]

The committee has said repeatedly conference play isn't weighted any differently than non-con. Just compare USC & Arizona State's resumes from last year.

Teams will crash out, but with Indiana, Nebraska, NC State, & the Pac-12 in freefall, someone has to get the bid.

Don't you think the committee will be under pressure to put in a midmajor then an IU or OU?  I feel like that pressure will be there.

[brewcity77]

Don't you think the committee will be under pressure to put in a midmajor then an IU or OU?  I feel like that pressure will be there.

I think IU's record will be below .500 which will likely take them out of at large consideration.

The big change to the Selection Committee this year is the makeup. In recent years, it's been 5 high major & 5 mid/low major representatives. This year it's only 4 high major & 6 mid/low major reps. In the past, similar makeups led to more at large bids for traditional one bid leagues. I expect schools like Wofford, Lipscomb, Furman, Utah State to benefit, especially in a year when the high majors are collectively crapping all over themselves.

[Herman Cain]

Don't you think the committee will be under pressure to put in a midmajor then an IU or OU?  I feel like that pressure will be there.

Here are the NCAA team sheets. They are pretty comprehensive  and worth reviewing. A team like IU has 5 Q1 wins.  They are now in overtime at Iowa and have a chance to pick up another.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Games%20through%20Feb.%2021,%202019.pdf

[Cheeks]

Here are the NCAA team sheets. They are pretty comprehensive  and worth reviewing. A team like IU has 5 Q1 wins.  They are now in overtime at Iowa and have a chance to pick up another.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Games%20through%20Feb.%2021,%202019.pdf

IU had a golden chance tonight, but goes down in OT.  I just don't see it

[MU82]

I wanted Indiana to lose to us and to beat everybody else.

Eff Indiana for not doing what I wanted!

[SaveOD238]

I wasted far too much time on this tonight, but the time-consuming work is out of the way.  I'll update it periodically.

To find the first round site for the top 16, I calculated (Google Maps) the distance from each campus to each host city.  Then I worked my way down from Duke to Virginia Tech (based off the current AP Top 25, which will change Monday) assigning each team to its closest available city.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1roateBVil2mn1EhYLccIh0bl2PGDFuP3LuCmuCjDCsk/edit?usp=sharing

Green is a first-choice location
Red is a blocked location, due to higher seed's preferential location
Yellow is the next closest location after eliminating blocked cities

Currently, this has Marquette in Tulsa.  Amazingly, the last site to fill up was not Salt Lake or San Jose but Hartford.

For Des Moines-ers, the best thing that happened this week that is not reflected on here is Tennessee losing.  Tennessee losing will potentially drop them behind Michigan, sending Michigan to Columbus instead of Des Moines.  Tennessee's #2 (technically #3 after Columbia) is Jacksonville, which opens a spot in Des Moines for Marquette.

[muguru]

I wasted far too much time on this tonight, but the time-consuming work is out of the way.  I'll update it periodically.

To find the first round site for the top 16, I calculated (Google Maps) the distance from each campus to each host city.  Then I worked my way down from Duke to Virginia Tech (based off the current AP Top 25, which will change Monday) assigning each team to its closest available city.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1roateBVil2mn1EhYLccIh0bl2PGDFuP3LuCmuCjDCsk/edit?usp=sharing

Green is a first-choice location
Red is a blocked location, due to higher seed's preferential location
Yellow is the next closest location after eliminating blocked cities

Currently, this has Marquette in Tulsa.  Amazingly, the last site to fill up was not Salt Lake or San Jose but Hartford.

For Des Moines-ers, the best thing that happened this week that is not reflected on here is Tennessee losing.  Tennessee losing will potentially drop them behind Michigan, sending Michigan to Columbus instead of Des Moines.  Tennessee's #2 (technically #3 after Columbia) is Jacksonville, which opens a spot in Des Moines for Marquette.

This is absolutely fantastic! Great work, and thank you for putting in the time on this.